Election Predictions
- Thread starter patentmike
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patentmike
Member
What GRD said.
Just for the heck of it.
So, more here think Bush will win. But a few thing Kerry will win. Its still a tossup. There are too many states that are too close to call.
My prediction? Bush will win by a tiny margin in several states. Kerry and his team of attorneys will file suits like Gor only dreamed of, to get those slim margins overturned in those few states.
It'll be worse than 2000, and we won't know for months and it'll wind up in the Supreme Court again.
The Dems learned a lot from the last election, and they're going to build on that. More fraud, more legal maneuverings.
The only way the election is decided by Nov. 3 is if Bush's electoral vote margin is high enough that, even if you could flip the closest few states, he'd still win it.
Or if Bush's margin of victory in the closest states is "re-count proof." And I don't see that happening.
We're headed for a mess worse than 2000, because too many states are too close.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but that's the way I see it. I hope I'm wrong on Nov. 3.
My prediction? Bush will win by a tiny margin in several states. Kerry and his team of attorneys will file suits like Gor only dreamed of, to get those slim margins overturned in those few states.
It'll be worse than 2000, and we won't know for months and it'll wind up in the Supreme Court again.
The Dems learned a lot from the last election, and they're going to build on that. More fraud, more legal maneuverings.
The only way the election is decided by Nov. 3 is if Bush's electoral vote margin is high enough that, even if you could flip the closest few states, he'd still win it.
Or if Bush's margin of victory in the closest states is "re-count proof." And I don't see that happening.
We're headed for a mess worse than 2000, because too many states are too close.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but that's the way I see it. I hope I'm wrong on Nov. 3.
The above is probably right =(
Altho whoever posted the link to www.individ.us link - thanks - that was the first time i read something that talked about the electoral voting system and made sense(to me). =)
Also - www.270towin.com - cool site...
I looked at some other site that had all the current polls and stuff... clicked on each state and assigned winners and losers myself based on the numbers and thier avg's... had bush to win by not much.
I think more people are going to vote than are represented. And hope my thoughts prove true and bush wins by more than people think. After all - its one thing to blah blah on a poll - and completely another to click the vote...
heh
we'll see tho... what... 3 days from now? =)
J/Tharg!
Altho whoever posted the link to www.individ.us link - thanks - that was the first time i read something that talked about the electoral voting system and made sense(to me). =)
Also - www.270towin.com - cool site...
I looked at some other site that had all the current polls and stuff... clicked on each state and assigned winners and losers myself based on the numbers and thier avg's... had bush to win by not much.
I think more people are going to vote than are represented. And hope my thoughts prove true and bush wins by more than people think. After all - its one thing to blah blah on a poll - and completely another to click the vote...
heh
we'll see tho... what... 3 days from now? =)
J/Tharg!
bg
Member
I know, forget the polls, but this did get my attention. My good ole Dad always told
me to think about things from the other side. My heart is for GWB, but my wallet
is leaning for Tomato Boy..Ck it out >>
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html
me to think about things from the other side. My heart is for GWB, but my wallet
is leaning for Tomato Boy..Ck it out >>
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html
Bush will win is my bottom line gut. And it will be by more than the polls suggest. I think he will win FL because even though the Dems will put on massive fraud in Dade county it will be overshadowed by military votes. The military guys are probably 4-1 for Bush altho I confess to not having seen any polls. Anyone have info on this?
This military vote will be the big story of this election.
I admit the prospect of 10,000 Democratic lawyers circling for the kill does not give me warm fuzzies. But I suspect the results will not warrant that.
This military vote will be the big story of this election.
I admit the prospect of 10,000 Democratic lawyers circling for the kill does not give me warm fuzzies. But I suspect the results will not warrant that.
I think there's too much wishful thinking going on here. Zogby (a highly respected pollster) is predicting a Kerry victory. The others are saying too close to call. Reports today say Kerry is leading in Florida. A Monday "surprise" from the mainstream liberal media would not surprise me. Hold on to your hats, this is going to be very close, and there is no guarantee Bush will win.
bg
Member
From Gary H.
I hope yer right Gary. I no more want to see Tomato Boy at 1600 Penn than any other
here. Time will tell and I don't think itll be resolved on the 2nd of Nov. It's too big a
deal, with the stakes high on both fronts..
Bob
RocketMan
Member
As I've said before, Bush will be a one termer like his father.
I don't like it, but that's the way it will be.
Standing Wolf notwithstanding.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bush won by a very slim, non-recount proof margin. Kerry's attack lawyers will then manage to sue him into the Whitehouse as I don't see the USSC doing Bush a second favor.
But most likely Kerry will take the popular and the electoral votes.
I don't like it, but that's the way it will be.
Standing Wolf notwithstanding.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bush won by a very slim, non-recount proof margin. Kerry's attack lawyers will then manage to sue him into the Whitehouse as I don't see the USSC doing Bush a second favor.
But most likely Kerry will take the popular and the electoral votes.
71Commander
Member
Bg I think your poll was DU'ed. Here is the same page with the same date.
Bush 280- Kerry 243 from 10-30
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Bush 280- Kerry 243 from 10-30
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Last edited:
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
1) Zogby is not predicting a Kerry victory. Last time I saw him (Friday) he was predicting a Bush victory, though he had predicted a Kerry victory during May of this year - something no professional pollster would ever do.
2) Zogby is not highly respected and in fact, none of his methodology is supported by professional polling organizations.
3) In 2002, Zogby ran the second largest number of polls and compiled the worst predictive record of any polling organization (29% of races called for the wrong candidate). For comparison, Mason-Dixon did the best (most races and only 1.3% called wrong and the average pollster called 13% wrong.
For some more detail on why Zogby is not considered reliable by professionals (and why neither major party uses him for internal results) see:
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/
I believe that Bush will win a razor-thin electoral college majority. However, do some of you remember what the polls and pundits were saying in 84, two days before President Reagan's landslide reelection? Were some people, or some polls, predicting a Mondale victory? (I myself cannot remember, I was 8 years old at the time...)
TennTucker:
I have checked that site every day for probably a week. Every day the numbers change radically. Today, for the first time in 2 weeks he is predicting a Kerry victory. It will depend on FL and Ohio. I would not bet money on a Kerry victory but I wouldnt be downright shocked by one either.
I have checked that site every day for probably a week. Every day the numbers change radically. Today, for the first time in 2 weeks he is predicting a Kerry victory. It will depend on FL and Ohio. I would not bet money on a Kerry victory but I wouldnt be downright shocked by one either.
I sure hope that Bush wins. I registered to vote for the first time in 46 years. So did my wife, two brothers and a friend.
Yesterday I found out that my brother is voting for Kerry. I was dumbfounded and I am still in shock that someone that is a lifetime hunter, and appeared reasonably intelligent could vote for him. But he has a son in the Marines and he is under the impression that Kerry will get us out of Iraq quickly and his son will remain stateside. He is an unemployed union millwright that has had a rough time since 9/11. As if the economic balloon wasn't over-inflated and long past due to be deflated before Osama popped it.
I can't understand his decision at all, I am just glad that there are four new voters for Bush and only one for Kerry.
Yesterday I found out that my brother is voting for Kerry. I was dumbfounded and I am still in shock that someone that is a lifetime hunter, and appeared reasonably intelligent could vote for him. But he has a son in the Marines and he is under the impression that Kerry will get us out of Iraq quickly and his son will remain stateside. He is an unemployed union millwright that has had a rough time since 9/11. As if the economic balloon wasn't over-inflated and long past due to be deflated before Osama popped it.
I can't understand his decision at all, I am just glad that there are four new voters for Bush and only one for Kerry.
2nd Amendment
member
I believe that Bush will win a razor-thin electoral college majority. However, do some of you remember what the polls and pundits were saying in 84, two days before President Reagan's landslide reelection? Were some people, or some polls, predicting a Mondale victory? (I myself cannot remember, I was 8 years old at the time...)
I remember the media was insisting it was a close election. I can't remember for certain about the polls but it seems to me they were saying it was reasonably close. At least a worthy fight. I don't think anyone but the most die-hard extremists were predicting a Mondull victory, though.
OTOH, NOBODY saw the trainwreck that turned out to be Mondale's defeat coming. Nothing "official" indicated it. But I also do remember that "word on the street" back then sounded a lot like now... So, again, I'll say Bush with a decisive popular vote win. But we'll hold our breath for the EC and what the corrupt Dems Party is willing to do to install itself in power.
I remember the media was insisting it was a close election. I can't remember for certain about the polls but it seems to me they were saying it was reasonably close. At least a worthy fight. I don't think anyone but the most die-hard extremists were predicting a Mondull victory, though.
OTOH, NOBODY saw the trainwreck that turned out to be Mondale's defeat coming. Nothing "official" indicated it. But I also do remember that "word on the street" back then sounded a lot like now... So, again, I'll say Bush with a decisive popular vote win. But we'll hold our breath for the EC and what the corrupt Dems Party is willing to do to install itself in power.
bg
Member
I got this over the wire. This election is gonna be a real circus..
http://www.yahoo.com/s/218443
http://www.yahoo.com/s/218443
captain obvious
Member
The last redskins home game prior to the election has predicted the result in every election since the 1930s - if the skins win, the incumbent stays.
The skins are down 20-12 - but rallying....
The skins are down 20-12 - but rallying....
I dislike both candidates......
But I trust Kerry far less. Kerry comes off to me as a pure socialist bordering on communist.
I hope Bush wins. Take the lesser of two evils.
However, with all the Bush haters in this country, my heart tells me that Kerry will win by a pretty big margin.
But I trust Kerry far less. Kerry comes off to me as a pure socialist bordering on communist.
I hope Bush wins. Take the lesser of two evils.
However, with all the Bush haters in this country, my heart tells me that Kerry will win by a pretty big margin.
SB88LX
Member
Skins lost, maybe this year will be different, sox broke their curse, hopefully the incumbent can break this one? Vote Republican.
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