Election Predictions
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Ohen Cepel
Member
I think the media is hyping it just because they can.
No one wants to watch a SuperBowl if it's 48-0 at the half.
Therefore, I predict Bush by 10%.
My 2 cents.
No one wants to watch a SuperBowl if it's 48-0 at the half.
Therefore, I predict Bush by 10%.
My 2 cents.
Moparmike
Member
I have had the sick feeling that Kerry would be POTUS ever since he was nominated in March. I dont want it to happen, but its just a feeling I have.
Sadly, I will have to swallow my principles and vote Bush this year. I was really hoping my first POTUS election would be one that I could actually vote for the best person for the job...
Sadly, I will have to swallow my principles and vote Bush this year. I was really hoping my first POTUS election would be one that I could actually vote for the best person for the job...
Just for the record, here's a link to the Zogby story:
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/83336.shtml
The story also notes that Zogby was the only one of the major pollsters to predict a Gore victory in the popular vote in 2000, and his extremely close prediction in 1996.
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/83336.shtml
The story also notes that Zogby was the only one of the major pollsters to predict a Gore victory in the popular vote in 2000, and his extremely close prediction in 1996.
2nd Amendment
member
Thing is, aren't those really the only two true Zogby scores? Otherwise he's been off far more often and by far wider margins than most other pollsters, hasn't he?
2nd Amendment, that could well be true, I just don't know.
More bad news, I noticed the latest results at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ are showing Kerry 283, Bush 246. Considering where they were 24 hours ago, it's not trending the right way. Still, who knows, we'll find out sometime in the next month or so...
More bad news, I noticed the latest results at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ are showing Kerry 283, Bush 246. Considering where they were 24 hours ago, it's not trending the right way. Still, who knows, we'll find out sometime in the next month or so...
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Kerry 283, Bush 246
Looks like terrible news the results do. Kerry's finishing strong so far. We are just down to under 2 days, Bush better get some ground back or we are stuck with 4-8 years of Kerry.
Kerry 283, Bush 246
Looks like terrible news the results do. Kerry's finishing strong so far. We are just down to under 2 days, Bush better get some ground back or we are stuck with 4-8 years of Kerry.
Mark in California
Member
Bush Wins
I beleave Bush will win by more that last time. If his oppostion should sue, I think it will not work out well, just burn up the remaining to to cast votes to the Electorial College
After all the bad press in 2000, I think the courts will go out of their way to stay out of the election process. They will schedule hearings, but it will be on their terms and calendar. Somtime in around December 17, 2004 ALL electoral votes must be in. If not they can be challenged by any Congressman or Senator. One challenge and they will not be counted. The Electoral College will not return a winner. The selection will be made by the Congress. The election is by state, one state one vote, and not by delegation numbers.
The Courts will after that dismiss all challenges because the popular vote / Electorial College will no longer be in line to choose the President or Vice President. It will depend on the Congress.
I beleave Bush will win by more that last time. If his oppostion should sue, I think it will not work out well, just burn up the remaining to to cast votes to the Electorial College
After all the bad press in 2000, I think the courts will go out of their way to stay out of the election process. They will schedule hearings, but it will be on their terms and calendar. Somtime in around December 17, 2004 ALL electoral votes must be in. If not they can be challenged by any Congressman or Senator. One challenge and they will not be counted. The Electoral College will not return a winner. The selection will be made by the Congress. The election is by state, one state one vote, and not by delegation numbers.
The Courts will after that dismiss all challenges because the popular vote / Electorial College will no longer be in line to choose the President or Vice President. It will depend on the Congress.
Roon
Member
mcole,
Zogby is a Christian (Catholic), of Lebanese descent, as is Ralph Nader.
And why would being Muslim make a difference?
Gotta disagree strongly here. Zogby is very highly respected, although he does use controversial methods, and is considered somewhat of a maverick in the polling business. He was very accurate during the last two presidential elections. He personally is a lefty, but hailed by Limbaugh and O'Reilly, and Rupert Murdoch and The Cato Institute, as examples, are clients. Right now he considers the race dead even. We'll see on Wednesday!
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Ryan in the House
Member
I have a bad feeling Kerry is going to win.
Then again, I'm not really 100% supportive of Bush, either. While him and I share a lot of political philosophies and ideas, he does not communicate them like I would if I was president.
Then again, I'm not really 100% supportive of Bush, either. While him and I share a lot of political philosophies and ideas, he does not communicate them like I would if I was president.
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
Nobody whose livelihood is based on accurate polling information uses Zogby. Neither the Democrats or Republicans use him for internal polling.
People whose livelihood is based on skewing polls to sell newspapers, get listeners, etc. find Zogby very useful because his methods are more in keeping with what they need. A blowout doesn't sell newspapers; but a 50/50 race does. Zogby is unafraid to tweak results to give his customers what they want.
He has an interesting page on the website today, a day he is predicting a massive Kerry victory btw. He has a whole personal page on who he is. The short answer is he an American living in Holland who is also working (or hoping to work for) the Democratic party. He is deeply concerned about how the rest of the world views us, and quotes various Brit commentators o how we're worse than Nazis etc etc yaddayaddayaddawhotheheckcares.
Leadership is always lonely. I dont see the Brits, French, Germans, UN etc doing any better or more effective job. I see them doing much worse.
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
From the internals of the latest Pew Research poll from October 31:
"As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. "
However, the only poll that matters is tomorrow. Make sure you make that one count.
"As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. "
However, the only poll that matters is tomorrow. Make sure you make that one count.
Roon
Member
For Better or Worse
This is where I'm predicting...
Bush 296 Kerry 242
Read 'em and weep:
Edit: It's all over, I missed one state, MN, which went to Kerry.
This is where I'm predicting...
Bush 296 Kerry 242
Read 'em and weep:
Edit: It's all over, I missed one state, MN, which went to Kerry.
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71Commander
Member
Florida is the key.
Maybe. Florida and Ohio.
"No Republican has won the White House without taking Ohio, and only two Democrats have done so in the past 100 years."
http://www.wqad.com/Global/story.asp?S=2505405
HankB
Member
I really, really, really hope I'm wrong, but . . .
President Elect Kerry (1,000,000 bogus ballots can't be wrong)
followed by
Supreme Court Chief Justice Hillary Clinton
Attorney General Charles Schumer
President Elect Kerry (1,000,000 bogus ballots can't be wrong)
followed by
Supreme Court Chief Justice Hillary Clinton
Attorney General Charles Schumer
bogie
Member
I think that website is one of the things that's targeting the "bandwagon" voters - the people who want to say "I voted for the winner," and who will vote for whoever seems to be the projected winner.
Believe it or not, there's a sizable percentage of folks who do this.
Believe it or not, there's a sizable percentage of folks who do this.
71Commander
Member
All these bad case sceneraios are indeed bleak, but if it to be, we must maintain control of the Senate. It's possible to have a 53/47 lead and be in control of the house as well.
Let's just gridlock the country for 4 years.:banghead:
Let's just gridlock the country for 4 years.:banghead:
Unfortunately Republicans with a majority will almost always lose to Democrats even with a minority. Republicans want to be liked and dont like to see Dan Rather say nasty things about them. Dems know he wont, no matter what they do. No Republican would have dreamed up filibustering Clinton's judicial appointees.
muleshoe
Member
I'd like to be as optimistic as some of you guys.
I'm looking for Kerry to take 290-300 electoral votes. Remember, we are talking about a country that elected Klinton.........twice.
The good news is...Both those clowns will be out of the Senate, and hopefully Hilary doesn't run in '08.
I'm muleshoe, and I appove of this message.
I'm looking for Kerry to take 290-300 electoral votes. Remember, we are talking about a country that elected Klinton.........twice.
The good news is...Both those clowns will be out of the Senate, and hopefully Hilary doesn't run in '08.
I'm muleshoe, and I appove of this message.
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
True; but both times Clinton failed to get a majority of the popular vote and both times, Perot ran for election (receiving 18.87% of the vote in 1992 and 8.4% of the vote in 1996).
This time, there really is no serious thrid party candidate of that level. Even Nader only received 2.74% in 2000 and he will not get that much this time.
Gusgus
Member
Folks,
Don't let the weekend polls get you down. Polls taken on Friday and Saturday nights almost always favor Democrats. Pollsters are also using tricks like assuming that most of the "undecided" will go for Kerry, and reflecting those numbers in their totals. This is all an effort to get the wishy washy Koolaid drinkers who want to be on the "winning team" to vote for Kerry.
Bush will win by a respectable margin, and at least 300 electoral votes. Heck, even the people's republic of Jersey is in play, and we're doing everything possible to place it in Bush's column.
Don’t let the media liars dissuade you. Get out the vote for Bush like your very life depends on it. It very well may.
Don't let the weekend polls get you down. Polls taken on Friday and Saturday nights almost always favor Democrats. Pollsters are also using tricks like assuming that most of the "undecided" will go for Kerry, and reflecting those numbers in their totals. This is all an effort to get the wishy washy Koolaid drinkers who want to be on the "winning team" to vote for Kerry.
Bush will win by a respectable margin, and at least 300 electoral votes. Heck, even the people's republic of Jersey is in play, and we're doing everything possible to place it in Bush's column.
Don’t let the media liars dissuade you. Get out the vote for Bush like your very life depends on it. It very well may.
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