I corresponded with Jeff White before deciding to post this here.
In the debate on gun control the relation ( if any ) between gun availability in a society and the rate of violent crime is often used to argue either for or against the private ownership of firearms depending on wether it appears that more guns cause crime or prevent crime. In the US the primary source for crime statistics is the FBI's Uniform Crime Index that is published every year and which tries to account for all the crime that may occur in the US for that year. What is not generally known is that most the crime statistics contained in the UCI are not very accurate and that some are even totally worthless. The reason for the former is that many crimes are not reported to the police by the victims or witnesses or do not come to the attention of the police by any other means. For reference see:
http://books.google.com/books?id=9n...ow many crimes not reported to police&f=false
http://www.rainn.org/get-information/statistics/reporting-rates
Provided that the chance of a given crime becoming known to the police in a given area do not change much over the course of years the best use of most of the violent crime statistics in the UCI is to allow people to measure the general increase of decrease of crime from one year to another. For example, if 60% of the rapes in a given area are not reported to the police for the year 1990 and again in that same area in 2000 still only 40% are reported then by comparing the number of rapes reported for the year 2000 can tell us wether the general rate of rape has increased or decreased since 1990 in that area.
Even the FBI cautions against using the UCI to compare one jurisdiction to another. Should you access the FBI UCI online at:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm
and then choose a particular year such as 2007. Before the UCI for that year comes up you see the following message:
Caution Against Ranking
*
Each year when Crime in the United States is published, some entities use reported figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rough rankings provide no insight into the numerous variables that mold crime in a particular town, city, county, state, or region. Consequently, they lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting communities and their residents. Valid assessments are possible only with careful study and analysis of the range of unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction. The data user is, therefore, cautioned against comparing statistical data of individual reporting units from cities, metropolitan areas, states, or colleges or universities solely on the basis of their population coverage or student enrollment.
*
Also, from the UCI handbook updated in 2004:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/handbook/ucrhandbook04.pdf
Page 7, paragraph 2:
"City, county, state, tribal, and federal law enforcement agency participants must classify and score offenses from the records of calls for service, complaints, and/or investigations......(P)articipants must record offense counts, not the findings of a court, coroner, or jury or the decision of a prosecutor."
Of all the crime statistics published by the FBI the most worthless must be the report of the number of justifiable homicides by civilians for a given year:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/expanded_information/data/shrtable_15.html
As per professor Gary Kleck in his seminal work "Point Blank: Guns and Violence in America" page 112, first paragraph:
"For a variety of reasons the FBI SHR totals for CJHs represent only a minority of all civilian legal defensive homicides (CLDHs). First, some cases that even the local police label as CJHs are not reported as such to the FBI."
A case in point involves Gordon Reid Hale III of Grand Prairie Texas. Shortly after 10:00 am on February 22, 1996 he was involved in a minor traffic accident. He was assaulted by Kenny Tavai and Mr Hale then shot and killed Mr Tavai with a handgun he was lawfully carrying because of a newly issued CHL. This was the first homicide committed by a CHL holder under the new Texas CHL law enacted the previous year.
At first Mr Hale was arrested by the Dallas police and charged with murder but was later cleared by a grand jury. See the following links for complete information:
http://www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archive.mpl?id=1996_1325536
http://www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archive.mpl?id=1996_1353877
That means that this criminal legal defensive homicide would most likely not be included in the FBI's expanded data table 15 of "justifiable" or "excusable" homicides.
See the article at:
http://www.wowessays.com/dbase/af4/seg106.shtml
For more information on one estimate of the actual number of criminals killed lawfully by civilians every year. Elsewhere I have seen an estimate as high as 3000 but I could not find a link on the internet this evening.
The only crime indexes published by the FBI that I accept as half way accurate are the ones that report murder for the US as a whole and for each state and local jurisdiction. Comparing these and the recent history of more states making civilian CCW possible shows that allowing civilians to carry CCW does not increase crime and usually reduces crime. If someone wants to argue in favor of restricter guns control laws they can not legitimately claim that in this country more CCW means more crime. Also, they cannot claim that handguns are not useful for self defense or of defense of another innocent person based on the few justifiable homicides reported by the FBI.
In future posts I will present evidence that the crime rates in Britain are higher than officially posted by the British police and that the true murder rate in Japan ( so called gun control paradise ) is far higher than the officially reported rate.
In the debate on gun control the relation ( if any ) between gun availability in a society and the rate of violent crime is often used to argue either for or against the private ownership of firearms depending on wether it appears that more guns cause crime or prevent crime. In the US the primary source for crime statistics is the FBI's Uniform Crime Index that is published every year and which tries to account for all the crime that may occur in the US for that year. What is not generally known is that most the crime statistics contained in the UCI are not very accurate and that some are even totally worthless. The reason for the former is that many crimes are not reported to the police by the victims or witnesses or do not come to the attention of the police by any other means. For reference see:
http://books.google.com/books?id=9n...ow many crimes not reported to police&f=false
http://www.rainn.org/get-information/statistics/reporting-rates
Provided that the chance of a given crime becoming known to the police in a given area do not change much over the course of years the best use of most of the violent crime statistics in the UCI is to allow people to measure the general increase of decrease of crime from one year to another. For example, if 60% of the rapes in a given area are not reported to the police for the year 1990 and again in that same area in 2000 still only 40% are reported then by comparing the number of rapes reported for the year 2000 can tell us wether the general rate of rape has increased or decreased since 1990 in that area.
Even the FBI cautions against using the UCI to compare one jurisdiction to another. Should you access the FBI UCI online at:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm
and then choose a particular year such as 2007. Before the UCI for that year comes up you see the following message:
Caution Against Ranking
*
Each year when Crime in the United States is published, some entities use reported figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rough rankings provide no insight into the numerous variables that mold crime in a particular town, city, county, state, or region. Consequently, they lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting communities and their residents. Valid assessments are possible only with careful study and analysis of the range of unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction. The data user is, therefore, cautioned against comparing statistical data of individual reporting units from cities, metropolitan areas, states, or colleges or universities solely on the basis of their population coverage or student enrollment.
*
Also, from the UCI handbook updated in 2004:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/handbook/ucrhandbook04.pdf
Page 7, paragraph 2:
"City, county, state, tribal, and federal law enforcement agency participants must classify and score offenses from the records of calls for service, complaints, and/or investigations......(P)articipants must record offense counts, not the findings of a court, coroner, or jury or the decision of a prosecutor."
Of all the crime statistics published by the FBI the most worthless must be the report of the number of justifiable homicides by civilians for a given year:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/expanded_information/data/shrtable_15.html
As per professor Gary Kleck in his seminal work "Point Blank: Guns and Violence in America" page 112, first paragraph:
"For a variety of reasons the FBI SHR totals for CJHs represent only a minority of all civilian legal defensive homicides (CLDHs). First, some cases that even the local police label as CJHs are not reported as such to the FBI."
A case in point involves Gordon Reid Hale III of Grand Prairie Texas. Shortly after 10:00 am on February 22, 1996 he was involved in a minor traffic accident. He was assaulted by Kenny Tavai and Mr Hale then shot and killed Mr Tavai with a handgun he was lawfully carrying because of a newly issued CHL. This was the first homicide committed by a CHL holder under the new Texas CHL law enacted the previous year.
At first Mr Hale was arrested by the Dallas police and charged with murder but was later cleared by a grand jury. See the following links for complete information:
http://www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archive.mpl?id=1996_1325536
http://www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archive.mpl?id=1996_1353877
That means that this criminal legal defensive homicide would most likely not be included in the FBI's expanded data table 15 of "justifiable" or "excusable" homicides.
See the article at:
http://www.wowessays.com/dbase/af4/seg106.shtml
For more information on one estimate of the actual number of criminals killed lawfully by civilians every year. Elsewhere I have seen an estimate as high as 3000 but I could not find a link on the internet this evening.
The only crime indexes published by the FBI that I accept as half way accurate are the ones that report murder for the US as a whole and for each state and local jurisdiction. Comparing these and the recent history of more states making civilian CCW possible shows that allowing civilians to carry CCW does not increase crime and usually reduces crime. If someone wants to argue in favor of restricter guns control laws they can not legitimately claim that in this country more CCW means more crime. Also, they cannot claim that handguns are not useful for self defense or of defense of another innocent person based on the few justifiable homicides reported by the FBI.
In future posts I will present evidence that the crime rates in Britain are higher than officially posted by the British police and that the true murder rate in Japan ( so called gun control paradise ) is far higher than the officially reported rate.