Firearms and Homicides: the "dirty little secret"

[baz]

I'm doing some statistical analysis of homicide rates involving firearms. One thing I finding is a very, very, strong correlation between homicide rates involving firearms, and race. I.e, homicides, including homicides with firearms, are much more prevalent among blacks than among other races. No doubt this correlation is more associative than causitive, being associated with other sociological factors -- low income, broken families, gang culture -- rather than with race per se. In any case, it underscores a truth commonly mocked by antis: "guns don't kill people, people kill people." More specifically, most homicide is intraracial (blacks killing blacks, whites killing whites). And blacks are several times more likely to murder other blacks than whites are to murder other whites.

This seems to be a "dirty little secret," i.e. something no one much wants to talk about. Yet the policy implications are profound. For example, Washington, DC, is a frequent winner, or runner up, for the title of "Murder Capital" of the US. Yet it has the most onerous gun control laws to found in the US. Obviously, gun control laws are not solving the murder problem in Washington, DC. The only thing that is likely to make a long term difference in homicide rates in Washington, DC, is a policy that addresses the underlying sociological and socio-economic problems associated with inner-city black communities.

I'm interested in links to web sites, or articles, that any might know of linking homicide rates, and especially any relating to firearms, to race.

 

[critter]

How terribly non-PC of you to notice such things. I guess all of us white guys had better get to murdering more of us to level things out.

 

[Herself]

The problem you will encounter is that unbiased demographic data on homicides is pretty hard to come by. It's such easy fodder for racists of every hue that they tend to drown out solid info.

Among the more useful slices are sex, age and income: If you are young, poor and African-American, your chances of shooting someone or being shot are a lot higher than those of an older, female, wealthy European-American.

Then you need to look at each variable to determine what are most significant; is it skin color? Sex? Income? Age? Some combination of those?

The broad trend is well-established: poor populations often turn out a disproportionate number of criminals and of murders. Poor neighborhoods often produce more criminals per capita than wealthy ones (and more convictions, too. Better lawyers?). And so on.

It's not just race. Race is a factor -- a big factor -- but there's a lot more to it than that.

Trying to simplify is where the "guns are bad" meme came from. We need less of that. We need less heat and more illumination!

--Herself

 

[TallPine]

poor populations often turn out a disproportionate number of criminals and of murders

And rich populations often turn out a disproportionate number of lawyers and of politicians

Can't win either way

 

[GLOCK19XDSC]

An interesting article by John Ross.

http://www.john-ross.net/race&rtc.htm

IIRC, he posted additional info about this article here on thehighroad, but I don't recall exactly what it was.

 

[Spot77]

Ken Blanchard has a book that may interest you, "Black Man with a Gun"


http://www.blackmanwithagun.com/

Although I think the site is still under construction.

 

[mzmtg]

Kevin has a couple of essays on just that topic here: http://smallestminority.blogspot.com/

First: http://smallestminority.blogspot.com/2006/01/questions-from-audience.html

Second: http://smallestminority.blogspot.com/2006/02/culture.html

 

[XLMiguel]

Social Darwinism - Life is harder living on the socio-economic/educational edge, and it takes it's toll.

 

[baz]

Lots of helpful info in a short time. Thanks!

Herself wrote:

The problem you will encounter is that unbaised demographic data on homicides is pretty hard to come by. It's such easy fodder for racists of every hue that they tend to drown out solid info.

Can you clarify what you mean here by "unbiased" demographic data? I think maybe what you mean is something a little different. If I say that race X is 5 times more likely than race Y to experience homicide by firearms, that is not biased data. I agree when you wrote:

Among the more useful slices are sex, age and income: If you are young, poor and African-American, your chances of shooting someone or being shot are a lot higher than those of an older, female, wealthy European-American.

Then you need to look at each variable to determine what are most significant; is it skin color? Sex? Income? Age? Some combination of those?

This doesn't mean that the broader metric is biased (in a statistical sense). It simply means that the broader metric may not get to the root causes (something I acknowledged in my original post).

There is no question that income level is an important factor independent of race, and that a lot of the higher homicide rate among blacks can be explained on the basis of income rather than race. But after allowing for income, a lot remains unexplained. By itself, age cannot explain anything, because the distribution of age is going to be roughly equal across races. That homicide is higher in certain age groups is undeniable, but that is probably a spurious factor, with the real causation being the correlation between age and gang activity.

Your comments are very good, and thought provoking. Thanks.

 

[Soybomb]

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Has pretty much every stat you could want.

There is a very strong correlation with race
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/race.htm

 

[Maxwell]

I more think the statistics are made to help pawn off other problems with a state and claim its a race thing.
The places many blacks have lived for generations also tend to have other problems. Look at new orleans. A lacking police force, a failed justice system, corruption out the wazoo, and a nasty drug problem. A situation already prone to crime reguardless of the race that lives there.
Did someone commit crime after crime because the are black, or because no one ever caught them?

When youve got a town where the citizens are disarmed and the criminals are repeat offenders, it wouldnt take much guessing to figure out where all the crime comes from.

 

[Steelcore]

Most of the people who get shot are up to no good.
Gang bangin
Stealin
dope dealin
various other criminal activities

If you're not involved in something illegal your chances of being shot drop dramatically.

 

[Standing Wolf]

No doubt this correlation is more associative than causitive, being associated with other sociological factors -- low income, broken families, gang culture -- rather than with race per se.

Those "other sociological factors" are all tied to race. Sifting through the associative versus causative factors isn't necessarily easy, but the correlations need to be pursued.

Here's a curious fact: if crime committed by blacks were removed from American crime tallies, we'd exhibit violent crime rates slightly lower than those in western Europe.

Is that about race? Yes, I'd say it is—race and several generations of so-called "welfare."

To the best of my knowledge, no one has looked at the relationships between violent crime and so-called "welfare." Someday, someone will; the very next day, the leftist extremists will have a screaming fit to end all screaming fits.

 

['Card]

To the best of my knowledge, no one has looked at the relationships between violent crime and so-called "welfare." Someday, someone will; the very next day, the leftist extremists will have a screaming fit to end all screaming fits.

You should read a book called The Vision of the Anointed by Thomas Sowell. He's a black author who has some fascinating and genuinely compelling things to say about the massive negative impacts on America's poor (both black and white, although he looks at the issue primarily as it relates to the black community) by the welfare system.

 

[Herself]

Can you clarify what you mean here by "unbiased" demographic data? I think maybe what you mean is something a little different. If I say that race X is 5 times more likely than race Y to experience homicide by firearms, that is not biased data.

The problem is that many folks read too much into the stats, or play games with them to suit whatever conclusion it is they want to draw. I am not seeing that in the blog entries from Smallest Minority; it's solid stuff. And John Ross's article, sad though it is to read, rings true.

This doesn't mean that the broader metric is biased (in a statistical sense). It simply means that the broader metric may not get to the root causes (something I acknowledged in my original post).

Pretty much my point. Untangling the root causes is not easy. All the more so when dealing with such emotionally-charged stuff: everybody's got some kind of opinion about this. It is difficult to put that aside and see what the numbers really say. Even harder to understand that finding causes may not point to solutions.

--Herself

 

[trickyasafox]

to post a very obvious statement, i think violent crime is directly correlated to population density. race is by product, not a contributing factor. i really dont think a person is more prone to do certain things based on race, i think they are more prone do to something based on geographic, population density, and per capita income.

again i know this is all obvious, but i still thought it worth saying

 

[Mad Chemist]

I'm doing some statistical analysis of homicide rates involving firearms. One thing I finding is a very, very, strong correlation between homicide rates involving firearms, and race. I.e, homicides, including homicides with firearms, are much more prevalent among blacks than among other races. No doubt this correlation is more associative than causitive, being associated with other sociological factors -- low income, broken families, gang culture -- rather than with race per se. In any case, it underscores a truth commonly mocked by antis: "guns don't kill people, people kill people." More specifically, most homicide is intraracial (blacks killing blacks, whites killing whites). And blacks are several times more likely to murder other blacks than whites are to murder other whites.

This seems to be a "dirty little secret," i.e. something no one much wants to talk about. Yet the policy implications are profound. For example, Washington, DC, is a frequent winner, or runner up, for the title of "Murder Capital" of the US. Yet it has the most onerous gun control laws to found in the US. Obviously, gun control laws are not solving the murder problem in Washington, DC. The only thing that is likely to make a long term difference in homicide rates in Washington, DC, is a policy that addresses the underlying sociological and socio-economic problems associated with inner-city black communities.

I'm interested in links to web sites, or articles, that any might know of linking homicide rates, and especially any relating to firearms, to race.

Let the flame war begin.
Thanks for doing the work. This is a very thankless field to research.
Please: vet your data, keep your methods sound, and report your findings.
I'll be very interested in your results. Especially, HHS and CDC stats composed with DOJ figures. Location, cyclical rates of criminal activity, there are a lot of interesting correlations to find. It is important that you do not misinterpret them. If I come across any related data I will PM the links.

Good Luck,
JH

 

[R.H. Lee]

John Wayne said it best. "Life is tough. Life is tougher if you're stupid."

 

[gunsmith]

I think college is the real problem

hasn't anyone noticed that most genocides of the last 100 years were started by men who at least went to college? (even if they didn't graduate?)
just about every war the USA was involved in as well! some college yahoo has gotta start a war....

 

[Mad Chemist]

Honestly, my philosophical take on the matter is this: the close proximity of poverty and excess, composed with mass media advetising, has perpetuated a different kind of "common criminal".

I think the general motivation has changed.
I'm still pondering this idea, any info you dig up may help "flesh it out".

JH

 

[R.H. Lee]

To the best of my knowledge, no one has looked at the relationships between violent crime and so-called "welfare." Someday, someone will; the very next day, the leftist extremists will have a screaming fit to end all screaming fits.

I think the leftists have already spun this one, SW, and their answer is more welfare; obviously the niggardly amount now provided is not sufficient to deter the afflicted from a life of crime. Jesse Jackson said something like "more welfare and healthcare on the front end prevents jailcare on the back end."

 

[10 Ring Tao]

Lots of others have noticed the same thing, hence plenty of quips amounting to:

If you want to cut crime in the US, the most effective measure would be to start aborting more black babies.

 

[TexasRifleman]

Lots of others have noticed the same thing, hence plenty of quips amounting to:

That particular quote is from Bill Bennett, and most certainly NOT what was being advocated. His point is the same as made by many posters here, that although statistically it may be true that Blacks commit more crimes, race is not the CAUSE, just a statistic associated with the cause. He was pointing to the absurdity of pointing to race as the CAUSE of high crime rates.

Take a city full of underprivileged, welfare system dependant, young, angry white kids and you'll get the same thing. Race has nothing to do with it.

 

[Leatherneck]

I'd be interested in seeing a comparison to Hispanic crime in the USA. Many Hispanic youth match the demographic most commonly associated with shootings among black Americans: youth, poverty, urban congestion ("ghetto") gang membership, lack of higher education, etc. The only factor not matching, I think, would be family ties, which to the casual observer, seem stronger in Hispanics than in poor blacks.

While Hispanic gangs--most notoriously MS-13--are certainly very violent, it seems their weapon of choice is more often knives or machetes than guns. Maybe the high percentage of them lacking immigration status is a deterrent to getting guns? Don't know, but I haven't seen this discussed anywhere.

TC

 

[bumm]

Honestly, my philosophical take on the matter is this: the close proximity of poverty and excess, composed with mass media advetising, has perpetuated a different kind of "common criminal".

I think the general motivation has changed.
I'm still pondering this idea, any info you dig up may help "flesh it out".

JH

Very interesting take on this. I think many of us have had thoughts around this area, but this lays out the concept with an economy of words. I know that my (pretty much grown) kids and their friends, although not involved in crime, have a much more "affluent" idea of what life should be like than my generation had. Probably very much related to TV, movies, etc. Add a little culture of poverty and a feeling of oppression to the mix, and you're likely to have a crime problem.
Marty