There is no doubt that shooters have been creating perfectly safe and serviceable ammunition without chronographs for many years. Starting with an initial powder charge that is lower than a published load and then working your way up, and then repeating this each time a major variable is changed (e.g. powder age or lot, OAL, bullet brand or type, etc.) is a time-tested method of preventing KABOOMS. It's a fundamental procedure. That being said, is this "working up a load" procedure all there is to reloading? Nah.
I never work up a load without shooting the results over my chronograph. Here are some reasons:
1) Symptoms of overpressure like "excessive recoil/noise" or "case pressure signs" (particularly in 9mm lugar which is the focus of this thread) are quite subjective, perhaps sometimes too subjective to be reliable bases for determining that a load is "too hot". However, a velocity reading that is significantly higher than the book value is very concrete evidence that the reloader should go back and look for something that he did wrong. This is a much more definitive GO/NO-GO kind of result.
2) Comparing velocity produced by known components in laboratory conditions and published by reputable sources to my homemade loads tells me something about the effect of switching components or configuration from lab conditions. For example, if I want to switch bullets (115 grain Winchester FMJ vs Xtreme CPRNs, for example), holding everything else constant, the velocity gives me some indication about whether that change, within the bounds I'm testing, puts me closer to a KABOOM! If there is no or minimal variation in velocity, then that's a good confirmation that that variable change (and only that change) probably did not lead to a dangerous condition. We all are forced to make these swaps regularly, since no data set is all inclusive. Without a chronograph, we are reduced to relying on generalities when we make these changes. An example: "for copper-plated bullets, use load data between lead and FMJ projectiles of similar weights." Generalities provide interesting information, but are not really conclusive.
3) Beyond avoiding KABOOMs, though, using a chronograph can provide insight into the effects on internal ballistics of changing other variables. I have tested how velocity is affected by changes in OAL, barrel length, silencer use, ammo temperatures, age and lot of particular canister powders, results using military pull-down powders, small variations in powder charge, various case headstamps, etc. This data provides information about the internal ballistics of a particular load/gun combination. Of course, "Studying internal ballistics is all about accuracy".
https://www.hornady.com/team-hornady/ballistic-calculators/ballistic-resources/internal-ballistics
This data is specific to
my guns in
my environmental conditions using
my components at distances that
I generally shoot. No manual (or, frankly, any internet community) can provide that insight. I have learned a great deal from that work.
Since I shoot for groups at the same time as I chronograph, then I simultaneously gain insight into how tweaking these variables affects accuracy.
Based on these experiences, I have a hard time understanding why so many comments stated or inferred that newbies
shouldn't include a chronograph in their reloading toolset! It's one thing to say that a chronograph isn't necessary (which is true), and quite another to say that having a chronograph is a really bad idea.
Do we all assume that new reloaders are not smart enough
I'm with BDS on this. I've been hand loading for over 4 decades and just recently got a crony a year or so. With a crony I'm afraid newbees will be chasing numbers and not concentrating on the fundamentals. Load development is just that, you start low and work up. Most of us hand load for accuracy, which requires an attention to details. Messing with a crony and not having the experience to go with it will probably be more confusing.
or too inexperienced
My point is what bds said much better. I personally think a new reloader should be working on safe loads and practices. I don't see a chrono as a safety tool for a beginner. In fact, I think it's bad to be messing around with one, but didn't say that as ray15 has a very strong opinion and I didn't want to push this into a nasty fight. I respectfully disagree with him, and agree with you and bds.
So to me, someone shouldn't be messing with loads that are near max until they've got basics down, have good habits and are at the stage where they're ready to try things that they understand and know how to deal with.
to learn from the data provided by a chronograph? Remember, this is a journey for all of us. Why do so many state unequivocally that a really useful piece of information should be kept unavailable from new reloaders?