How many guns in America? More than you think -

[Tirod]

A new player is on the field in estimating the number of guns we own. And because of that, the numbers we have tossed around as being a "normal" gun owner and a "superowner" are now out the window.

Were you aware of the ATF's Access 2000 computer registration system? I wasn't. It's a system used by voluntary makers, importers, and wholesalers to log their 4473's into a database. They aren't required and can only input, not see the data. It's been up since 2009, and as of 2015, has recorded the unique serial numbers of over 252,000,000 guns.

The most common estimate of guns in America is about 300 million, so seeing that just these voluntary submittals are showing about 85% of that number from new guns and surplus shows how far off the number really is. It doesn't take into account the tens of millions made previously.

That's why it's suggested the number might be over 410 million, to 660 million. We just don't know: http://weaponsman.com/?p=33875

Here's the upside - nobody knows. Those serial numbers weren't tracked and can't be found. It costs money to convert records based in the paper age and get the numbers into a database. It's even harder when we keep flipping what kind of formatting we use in computers - the stuff we recorded in the age of a single mainframe running punchcards won't just load. Remember 8" floppies? No? How about 5 1/4"? Seen a computer that accepts one of those lately, and do you have the programming to access that record?

If they can't even know how many guns have been made - and 80% lowers have no ATF paper trail - how can you know where to go round them up? Add face to face sales at the local level and there's no way to find them all. Ever.

When you hear it in the future don't give it much credance. 300 million guns? Maybe not even half. They don't even know. Just chuckle and move on.

 

[mjsdwash]

about twenty years ago I watched a documentary on the rise of organized crime, and they said that by the 1970' there were as many as one billion firearms of all types in the US based on manufacturer data, and import records. Dont remember the name of the movie. Up until at WW2 it was common for machine shops across the world to make firearms for the US market during down time. Just like CNC shops do with AR's now. Serial numbers and records were not required, so it it possible.

 

[230RN]

What difference does it make?

There won't be a mass one-shot confiscation. They'll pick at it one person at a time as they get caught one by one, and make the first couple of hundred folks caught get the max penalty and have our wonderful mass media rant and rave about those dangerous nuts with hidden arsenals and thousands of rounds of ammunition. Then they'll have an "amnesty" and thousands will be surrendered. Rinse and repeat.

After a couple of cycles of this kind of harassment, most people will be glad to throw their guns in the river and forget they ever had them.

Terry

 

[AlexanderA]

I think this misses the point. It doesn't matter how many guns there are. The real goal of the antigunners is not so much to get rid of the hardware as it is to destroy the "gun culture." If they pass a ban, they expect noncompliance (based on the experience of every other country that has tried it). What a ban does is drive the banned guns underground, never to see the light of day. Look at unregistered machine guns. There must be thousands of them out there. They're not a problem, because the people that have them keep them well hidden. (Of course they surface from time to time, and then their stupid owners have the book thrown at them.) The same thing would happen with any other guns banned in the future.

 

[RX-79G]

The numbers can be used as a economic justification against a ban, since 600,000,000 guns is something like $120 billion in personal property.

 

[ATN082268]

What difference does it make?

There won't be a mass one-shot confiscation. They'll pick at it one person at a time as they get caught one by one, and make the first couple of hundred folks caught get the max penalty and have our wonderful mass media rant and rave about those dangerous nuts with hidden arsenals and thousands of rounds of ammunition. Then they'll have an "amnesty" and thousands will be surrendered. Rinse and repeat.

After a couple of cycles of this kind of harassment, most people will be glad to throw their guns in the river and forget they ever had them.

Terry

Although there doesn't seem to be an accurate number of guns in the U.S., the media seems content to latch onto the 300 million gun number. I suspect the media wants the number of guns to be alarming (at least in their eyes) but not too high so the issue is ignored because the problem seems unfixable.

 

[Snyper]

Add face to face sales at the local level and there's no way to find them all. Ever.

Face to face sales may already be entered since the OP says "makers , importers and wholesalers".

Most private sales have been through at least one recorded retail sale other than guns owned prior to the mid 60's

 

[RX-79G]

Face to face sales may already be entered since the OP says "makers , importers and wholesalers".

Most private sales have been through at least one recorded retail sale other than guns owned prior to the mid 60's

The point is that FTF sales make the location of the guns unknowable, even if you could get a good estimate.

However, "modern" firearms go back to the end of the 19th century. That's 80+ years of firearms production and importation that didn't make it onto the books.

 

[Carl N. Brown]

Before 1968, a lot of low end "farmer special" .22 rifles and shotguns did not have serial numbers because they were not that valuable and serial numbers were not required.

I would add that using NICS checks as a proxy for gun sales is not a proxy for number of guns sold. When I bought a revolver and shotgun for my wife, that was two guns on one 4473 with one BG check thru NICS; when my son bought matching rifles one for him, one as a gift to me, that was two guns on one 4473 with one NICS BG check. There are five blank lines on the 4473 for listing make, model, cal, ser num of guns sold on that 4473 and BG check. Plus you can list additional guns on an attachment to the 4473.