Impact of coronavirus crisis on antique revolver demand & value

[orpington]

With the recent ongoing crisis, there has been increased demand for ammunition primarily, and some black guns.

My interest is in antique revolvers, mostly, most being pre-1899, Colt SAA's & Percussion, Smith & Wesson New Model No 3's, Americans, Schofield's, Baby Russians, No 2 Army, Merwin & Hulbert's, etc. The demand for these lately has been flat to decreasing. What impact, if any, do you think the current crisis will have on these? There is increased demand for guns, in general, but mostly much newer stuff. Any impact on these? Then again, older folks are diminishing, and my guess is that not many younger folks stepping up to replace them, even in a time of crisis, and the demographic interested in these is the one that has to be most careful relative to the virus.

What are your thoughts? My guess is that prices remaining steady might be the best outcome and diminishing value (& interest) might be more likely.

 

[Pudge]

When the government's policy efforts to keep the economy afloat cause significant inflation, collectibles might not be a bad investment.

 

[Barry loyd]

This purely anecdotal but the new Pythons are going for $1,000 over msrp. I doubt collector value on truly collectible guns will go down.

 

[cjwils]

Speaking for myself, but I think this applies to lots of people now. If you have significant money in the stock market, the recent market plunge has made you feel a lot less wealthy. Hence, your willingness to spend on anything is reduced. I suspect that lots of collectors of antique guns are in this situation.

 

[gspn]

The US government is trying an experiment that has never been attempted: it is trying to shut down the entire US economy to stop the spread of an infectious disease. This will lead to untold financial hardship for many millions of people. JP Morgan forecasts 2Q GDP to be -14%, Goldman Sachs is forecasting -24%. Those are quarterly GDP figures that we didn't even see during the Great Depression. The next six months will deliver the ugliest economy any of us have seen in our lifetimes.

The general trend for this period will see unemployment skyrocket, and spending fall. That would generally apply to all goods, but there can always be pockets of activity that stand out for one reason or another. The best case scenario is that this is a fairly short recession with a sharp bounce-back as pent up demand from a locked-down society comes roaring back once life returns to normal. I don't put a lot of faith into the "best case" scenario, but I hope for the sake of the country that it's what occurs.

My guess is that there won't be enough people interested in antique revolvers for the next 12 to 18 months to really make a difference in pricing. People in general will have far more on their minds. Just my guess. If you were buying and selling those revolvers from 2007 through 2012 you might use that period as a guideline to help you figure out what to expect.

 

[.38 Special]

As a small business owner, I am pinching every penny. I certainly will not be buying any guns for the forseeable future.

 

[StrawHat]

Same here. We have been shut down for a week with no end in sight. Hard to spend with $0 coming in.

Kevin

 

[GEM]

I would think that collectibles demand on disposal income. Who will still have significant disposal income that they will be willing to spend on such. The same question might be asked for the other collectible markets. I have know idea how they do in general after economic or political crises.

I had some disposal income (sigh), I might use to pay off some debt, bank it, etc. If invested, it would be in something solid and not so subject to the vagaries of psychological forces.

 

[AlexanderA]

The market in antique guns is largely concentrated in gun shows. With gun shows being cancelled for the foreseeable future, there will be no place to inspect, buy, and sell. That in itself will put a damper on things.

 

[Steve S.]

Lots of good wisdom being shared here; I am impressed. At this time, (most) hard assets are depreciating and cash is king. Luxury (collectibles) items will have far less demand as the demand population has dwindled quickly. As with most non-essentials, they are not needed for basic life by a growing group of people so they will sit and depreciate. When people feel wealthier again sometime down the road, that demand will return and appreciation will once again accelerate. As a collector, I would call the immediate future a buying opportunity for you - surely a fire sale at some level.

 

[Gordon]

I agree with most of the above. A real antique collectable value will tank in the forseeable future , as will formerly high end stufff and "elephant guns " ect. . Arms that take modern ammunition in shootable condition will still sell and depending on how midevil things get will retain value, even if barter goods. I was on the cusp of selling my pre 64 Winchester model 70 collection when this hit for instance, and had done photo shoots ready to put on Gun Broker . I had this gut feeling not to, and looked up the other same things on GB to find zero bids on anything. So if I live thru this and things change then I will do it. At this point I am stuck with hundreds of quality shootable guns. Of course the in vaults "assault" type guns and ammo are stashed and my sons have access if needed and everyone would buy those right now. I may sell some modern pistols as the price seems up for the "fighting " kind right now . My kids all ready got what they desired of my collection, as far as I know, but here come the grand kids ! If things really break down then any arms that shoots and you have ammo for will have good value, comparitively speaking and there will be no "red tape "

 

[Dave T]

gspn has truck the nail upon the flat part.

Dave

 

[GEM]

I am a serious coin collector. I buy what I want after researching a piece that appeals to me as something for my collection. If it appreciates in value that is all well and good. For example, a couple of years ago, I bought https://en.numista.com/catalogue/pieces39920.html . It appealed to me, so if it's price goes up, good. My kid can have the profit. If the Apocalypse continues and people will trade food for silver, it's a hunk of silver.

Commercial collective dealers make money on the transactions, not on the appreciation for the most part. I remember this sad incident. Went to the coin show and a guy had a box of modern US commemorative silver dollars that he wanted to sell. Obviously he had financial need. The dealers told him that they would pay just bullion prices. He was incensed as he paid much more for them from the Mint. Look up https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/seigniorage.asp.

It takes a long time (except in rare cases) for you to make up the difference between what you pay and what you will get.

 

[WestKentucky]

Looking at it two ways... antique guns are functional guns. Many are cheap (Iver Johnson, RG, NEF, H&R, US Revolver) so demand for those will likely go up as people look for “a gun” without understanding of what the ups and downs are of each, simplythe panic for having “a gun” will make the cheap ones more expensive. The higher end collectibles and specific guns you mentioned will not fall into that category though and I suspect that the prices will stay somewhat flat. There probably will not be an uptick in collectibility because it’s not a “need” item and most people are going to be saving money until this global crisis eases up a bit. There may be a slight drop in interest and price for a few weeks but I would not expect it to be significant. When things pick back up though I would expect a slight bump in market, but on both ends I don’t see it as anything worthy of large scale investment. I’m thinking fluctuations in the 10-15% range so maybe you buy a gun and get it at a reduced rate now... say value is roughly a grand, you pay 850 and then at best you sell it at the boom when this is over, and you might get 1100.

Keep in mind, most collectors are advanced in age, and the virus only seems to be terminal for folks fitting that description. There may actually be more guns loose then than now. I hope not and it’s kind of a morbid thought, but we each have a time coming.

 

[GEM]

Keep in mind, most collectors are advanced in age, and the virus only seems to be terminal for folks fitting that description. There may actually be more guns loose then than now. I hope not and it’s kind of a morbid thought, but we each have a time coming.

That's not true.

 

[Jimfern]

Just a note on collectibles in general. My fathers-in-law have stamp and coin collections and were at a point where they decided to maybe thin out, or get out of completely late last year. I found you almost can't give away stamp collections, let alone sell them and coins are starting to lose their collector value if they don't contain silver or gold or aren't super rare. For those two items, there doesn't seem to be enough interest from younger collectors to keep their value afloat. I don't know if that will translate to guns since they still have a utility value - you can shoot them, but based on seeing the values of the other items drop, I'd really think about spending the money at this point. I do have more than a few Mausers, but I didn't buy them expecting them to go up in value much. I just wanted to reload and shoot them. Your mileage may vary.

 

[buck460XVR]

In times like these, anything that cannot be turned into some form of currency instantly is going to lose value. Like the stock market, one needs to buy low and sell high. I would tend to think that antique guns, especially those that are not durable and do not have ammo readily available to them are not going to appreciate in value. Right now folks are looking for guns to protect the investments they already have and that means modern firearms. It may be if you have cash to spend, that like the stock market, you can find some good prices on guns that may very well appreciate in value when the economy comes back. But what is collectable is a finicky and ever-changing thing. Baseball cards once thought to be as good as gold are now hard to give away. The market for Beanie Babies and antique toy tractors(like other toys) has dwindled. Two decades ago everyone and their sister was selling antiques. Not so much anymore. Nostalgia for some of these older items, like us Baby-Boomers, is dying off. With the economy in the sewer, folks will save their monies for staples. Those wanting a firearm for protection will not pay $1000 over MSRP for a new Python when they can still get a used 686 for a third of that. Only the good Lord and a Fortune Teller knows what is going to happen in the future.

 

[GEM]

That's true about stamps. My father keep all kinds of pretty types from way back when. I took them to a dealer who said to use them on letters. Only the rarest were worth something. As I said, collect for the enjoyment. If you look at gold coins, only the rarest dates and the best conditions are saleable.The rest are bullion and many being melted. That being said, if you want to have a little gold and like some historical items, you can get interesting things at bullion levels - serves two purposes. For example, I could do a nice set of coins from my grandparents' countries in the lesser conditions for bullion levels.

 

[WestKentucky]

That's not true.

What’s not true?

Most collectors are guys who are far enough in a career to have disposable income, not the young guys feeding kids and buying their first house. That typically takes a long time. People enter a career around 20, raise kids for around 20, pay off debt for another 15 or 20 so we are talking about a group of folks roughly averaging to be in their 60s or older.

The virus is predominantly only terminal for older folks. It’s all over the news. Younger folks typically have a rough case of something resembling the flu, where the elderly and those with significant health issues may not be able to overcome the sickness. I don’t trust the news usually, but they ALL are chirping in harmony on this point.

Folks die. It’s a fact of life. This sickness is going to increase that to a certain degree. It looks like a pretty small amount, and I hope that is the case, but even if deaths in the US stop at 1000 or some other arbitrary number then there are that many more people dead, which means that many more estate sales, widows cleaning out husbands collections, people selling stuff to pay for funerals etc... When the collector is gone, the collection will be liquidated most times.

Where am I wrong?

 

[orpington]

I should have implied that I am referring to antique revolvers "with condition". Not necessarily the extreme high dollar stuff, which is out of my league, but generally revolvers with significant original finish, except for some Colt Single Action Army variations, such as Cavalry Models, which can often be valuable with little original finish.

So, it appears in the really short term, as everyone seems to want cash, there may be bargains to be had, but over the long term, the trend is flat to, more likely, further depression.

 

[NoirFan]

I don't believe the epidemic will affect interest in old revolvers. What does affect interest is popular media, specifically TV and video games. I know younger people who have recently gotten into old guns because of shows like Westworld and games like the Red Dead Redemption series. I picked up my first cowboy gun because of Stephen King's Dark Tower.

 

[drk1]

My thought are that the resulting economic crisis has financially destroyed me. I went from a net worth at the beginning of March of well over a million dollars thanks to the fine folks at Merril Lynch. Today my accountant called and demanded that I show up tomorrow to pay for his work on my tax return tomorrow before the tin-pot dictator governor's lock down takes effect. I can pay him, but I don't even have enough money to pay what I owe to the federal goverment. I don't foresee buying anything for a long time, if ever again at my age, but I do foresee putting everything up for auction as soon as we're allowed to travel again. So in light of the law of supply and demand, I suspect anyone who is selling something in the near future will be getting pennies on the dollar. Hope that helps. I'm sick!

 

[Zaydok Allen]

What impact, if any, do you think the current crisis will have on these?

Little to none. People buying at an accelerated pace are new shooters who have likely been planning to buy but haven't yet, or experienced shooters who are worried a model they have wanted for a while will be unavailable.

Neither of which are typically people worrying about buying antiques in a hurry.

 

[DS-10-SPEED]

I'm not an antique collector but those that I know are definitely older than me by a few years. My brother in-law is a classic car collector and he has told me years ago that his group of car cruiser guys are getting concerned about who is going to carry on this tradition. They already have seen for years a lack of interest in younger crowds. The younger generations don't care about old cars and they are concerned that their investments are becoming worthless. It could be the same for antique guns too as the older generation dies off and the Covid 19 will unfortunately take a few out, who knows.

 

[Monac]

A major drop in the economy won't be good the value of anything. Except toilet paper, apparently.