Is the gun market down currently? (v2)

[Scout21]

A thread was started by someone else about two weeks ago on this topic and it was unfortunately derailed and subsequently locked. I was enjoying the replies and would like get the conversation going again to get an idea of what people are seeing in their areas.

I haven't kept up with my local and state gun classifieds all that well over the past year or so, however it does seem that there are more listings lately, particularly with an influx of people stating "no trades, cash only". I'm not sure if it's the influx of listings diluting things, but it seems that guns and ammo aren't moving nearly as fast as they once were. Prices still seem high with many asking MSRP, however there does seem to be deals returning to the secondary market, albeit slowly. I don't frequent gun stores all that often, but last I checked, for the most part, prices and availability are both currently high.

What are you guys seeing? Any changes to any segment of the market in particular? How about ammo prices and availability?

 

[Jdague12]

Stopped by gun store after shooting Monday. Buddy picked up his first pistol. This was 11:00am. After they ran paperwork through, he came back as the 653rd applicant in the state of Pennsylvania. 653 people bought a firearm in the first couple of hours on the first business day of 2023 in Pennsylvania. Don’t know what the other states did, but…..

Also noticed that the used firearms weren’t much cheaper than the new ones.

 

[blackd24]

Prices are down, people aren’t as desperate for gun related items. People have less money to spend, also driving demand down. I think the gun industry is catching up and things will really start to cool off. If you want something, it will at least be available, still might be priced high.

Primer prices are hurting the reloading community. I’m seeing a lot less activity on trading forums.

 

[Jdague12]

Even the crooks on Gunbroker are dropping their prices on primers. Some of them are even selling for the same as the stores, $99/1000. The rare ones are still listed for outrageous amounts but nothing like a year or so ago. Powders are becoming more common.

 

[Speedo66]

Perhaps people who bought firearms during the worst of the pandemic finally realized a gun wasn't going to protect them from disease.

Non shooters conclude they don't want this excessively pandemic priced item anymore, and now want to dump it, "no trades, cash only".

If enough do it, it will cool the market.

 

[jmorris]

It’s down from when the only thing on the shelves was dust.

I haven’t seen any clearance sales though…

 

[film495]

I was in a Bass Pro a week or so ago, and glanced at .22 LR prices. Think it was still 10 cents a round generally speaking, and that was the same as about a year ago.

 

[AlexanderA]

It's apparent that no federal antigun legislation is in the offing, at least for the next couple of years. Therefore, the pressure to buy has been relieved, and some people who bought in previous panics may feel comfortable getting rid of their excess guns. This should result in a leveling or decline in prices.

Actually, this could be a good time for contrarian buying. I'm taking some money out of the declining stock market and investing it in more guns. Buying very selectively, though.

 

[Buzznrose]

I see prices are stabilizing and the big sellers like Palmetto State Armory are having solid deals. Not as good as 2018-19 but down significantly from 2020-21

In addition, the delay of many new guns that are now coming to market is causing some sales on previous models. Sig 320/365 is one I’ve noticed seeing discounts where they used to command MSRP +

All goes hand in hand with production coming back strong. But material and labor costs are still high so they can only drop so much.

 

[AlexanderA]

All goes hand in hand with production coming back strong.

I don't see the demand justifying increased production (except maybe for ammunition). If this keeps up, there will be a glut on the market, and falling prices.

 

[JeeperCreeper]

My observation:

-It is currently a buyers market for firearms. Stores have lots of inventory, and seeing lots of random sales pop up. The used market is not hot, and shops aren't taking in trades. Classified ads are sitting unless a huge bargain.

-It is currently not a buyers nor sellers market for ammo. Ammo prices have not dropped back down, but people aren't buying or selling much because supply is sorta met but being offset by high prices so people are not yet hoarding again.

 

[Buzznrose]

I don't see the demand justifying increased production (except maybe for ammunition). If this keeps up, there will be a glut on the market, and falling prices.

Orders are filled months or more after being placed, not necessarily based on current demand.

So I’m not in the industry, but in many segments of our economy, production is still filling lots of back orders that were made when shelves were bare and production lines were slowed by COVID.

The backlash of limited production for a year or more and huge demand in 2020/2021 skewed the supply-demand curve.

 

[AK Hunter]

The economy is down so everything that is not a necessity is down because people are having a hard time just keeping the food on the table. With ammo prices being as high as they are no to many are going to buy a new caliber gun if they are not sure they can feed it.

 

[Ignition Override]

This gun Surplus was predicted when the 2020 “ approved & pre-organized” race riots/looting stopped, and also predicted when the shouts of “defund the police” met the brickwall of reality. And the news that Covid was Not the end of the world....finally penetrated the thicker skulls in the Herd—-

Sidenote: This was somewhat awkward , but not really— After the leaders of an extremely public “movement” brought in Million$ of Dollar$ for personal consumption. Shhhhhh….and read up on where the SPLC 'allegedly' has millions stashed. "Hey Mahn, wan anotha rum?"

Back to ultimate topic: I thought that most people who were gun owners in late 2020 already began to anticipate the predicted surplus. Moooo---

 

[PzGren]

The demand for firearms is definitely down and sales are slower than two years ago, that does not necessarily have to lead to large price drops, especially for new guns. The rise in the cost of production and distribution, that has plagued all industries, will not stop from affecting gun manufacturers and the LGS has to pay double to three times as much to have his place of business heated or cooled.

The owner of a pawnshop has told me that he is having customers stand in line to sell off all kind of things just to be able to pay their bills.

 

[stonebuster]

Even the crooks on Gunbroker are dropping their prices on primers. Some of them are even selling for the same as the stores, $99/1000. The rare ones are still listed for outrageous amounts but nothing like a year or so ago. Powders are becoming more common.

Primer prices seem to be moving down as low as $75/1000 even on GB. Bosnian, Turkish and Argentina SPP seem to work and are available. This could help drive down the price of domestic SPP.

 

[Wildbillz]

Supply on some things is better. You can walk into a store and find ammo. Prices have come down a little, so that's good. I have seen a couple of ads talking about factory rebates. I did find a few deals in the last year, so its all heading the right way its just slow to recover.

On the down side. Primers are pretty much nonexistent. All though I did see a brick of smr primers at BassPro last week for $79.99 (limit one per customer).

Bottom line is we got a long ways to go.
WB

 

[Madcap_Magician]

Used market on guns and knives is very soft right now. Stuff sits for a while unless it's heavily discounted or the really rare things that are always going to move quickly.

 

[Waveski]

Even the crooks on Gunbroker are dropping their prices on primers. the same as the stores,

Did these vendors stick a gun in your face and force you to buy?
Did you pay for 1,000 primers but only received 500?
No? - Well then they ain’t crooks, are they?
Don’t like the price? Don’t buy.
Do you want a free market? Would you rather have federal price controls?

Everyone loves free enterprise when prices are down.

 

[N555]

Primer prices seem to be moving down as low as $75/1000 even on GB. Bosnian, Turkish and Argentina SPP seem to work and are available. This could help drive down the price of domestic SPP.

I want to buy up a bunch of these when nobody wants primers in the next year or 2.

 

[Charlie98]

Everyone loves free enterprise when prices are down.

I say very much the same thing.

Back during the Obama Shortage, CTD (Cheaper than Dirt) listed 30rd used USGI AR mags for $99/ea. This sent some people into an absolute frothing at the mouth craze... but it didn't bother me. It's the Free Market, plain and simple. If you are desperate for something... you'll pay the price, if you aren't, you won't. People don't throw a fit when something is less expensive than they expect, and no one is forcing you to buy it then, either. FWIW, when CTD had their $99 mag sale going on, I went into the local CTD shop (since closed...) and bought a Kahr 9mm for just over $200. They did not force me to buy a $99 mag when I was there, either.


Prices are still kind of high at the LGS I frequent... me thinks they bought some of that stuff at the high market price, and now they don't want to take a loss on it. Ammo there is pretty plentiful, if not a huge variety. I have not seen primers available there in quite a while, even given the current market. They do have oodles of powder, including things like 8# of Varget, VV powders, H4350, and some other popular stuff. They have tons of consignment stuff... which tells me owners are trying to get their money back in a down market. People who joined the craze and bought firearms, while not being dedicated shooters, want their money back now that the immediate threat is 'over.'

On the internet, prices have settled down a little at the retailers, but GunBroker is still the Wild West, and you have to know what you are looking at, just like any other time. Online ammo is better, but .40/rd for 5.56mm is still crazy, let alone $1/rd for FMJ .308. Bulk 9mm is in the .30/rd territory...

Not to be lulled into thinking we are headed back into a surplus market... it will only take one shooting somewhere, or someone in Washington to start rattling their sabers about more laws to set us back, again. One step forward, two steps back. By and large, however, I think we will see a calm market until the middle of 2024... when the next election cycle will start. Depending on who we are looking at will dictate what the gun market does.