Is there typically a lag in popularity for a newly introduced cartridge?

[Zaydok Allen]

I was thinking about a recent acquisition of mine chambered in 10mm. Every few weeks I see someone on THR posting that they are picking up or thinking about picking up a 10mm. That's a general statement and I do not assert that it is always true or that it is indicative of gun buyers everywhere. However, I see more 10mm ammo on my store shelves now than in the last 10 years, and it is consistently available.

It seems to me that the popularity of the 10mm cartridge is again growing. I think feral hog hunting has helped with this, and there seems to be a correlation with reloading. That makes sense given the bullet weight diversity, cost of factory ammo, and the desire for proper warmly loaded ammo.

However, it does make me wonder about some cartridges, and the tendency for lukewarm early reception, near extinction (maybe overstating things), and then resurgence.

10mm followed this trend.
327 Fed Mag
480 Ruger
41 mag has been hanging on for a long time, but has never really been super prolific.

I know that Dirty Harry more or less made the 44 mag instantly popular, but what about other cartridges? 454 Casull? 357 Sig? I don't know about these?

Do you have other examples?

I have no doubt that the availability of ammo with online vendors has helped revive some of the above listed cartridges, and made it worth wile for ammo makers to produce those rounds.

Is that a fairly normal trend with a new handgun cartridge? I know there are lots of factors, like what niche a particular cartridge fills, and if there is a place holder already in line ahead of it. Novelty?

Has the internet killed this trend due to knowledge sharing and ammo availability? What other factors do you think affect the initial reaction to a new handgun cartridge?

 

[Fiv3r]

I haven't been shooting long enough to comment on new cartridge trends, but I believe internet sales and discussion can make or break or even revitalize a cartridge.

I don't have anything more than a hunch, but I honestly believe that the dreaded "bear threads" have given 10mm a shot in the arm. Compound that with 9mm closing the gap on .40, and you have a new reason to jump over the intermediate .40 and just go with the more powerful 10mm. But yeah, 15 years of, "I'm going camping at a KOA in central Ohio, but I'm worried about Grizzlies and Sabertooth Cats. What should I get?"
"Glock 20...nuff said"
is probably going to move enough of the old 10mm to inspire sporting goods stores to stock more of it again.

Conversely, I think the very handy and under appreciated .327 was the wrong round at the wrong time. It was introduced right as CCW was getting ready to hit a huge uptick. However, CCW was moving toward pocket .380s, and even accounting that the .327 crams a sneaky 6th round into a 5 shooter, the recoil and blast is pretty intense unless you load it with "antique" and thus weaker .32's. As a trail gun, I think it's awesome. Certainly a nice flexible bridge between a kit gun in .22 and one in .38 special. I think the marketing of branding it a self defense cartridge was the biggest mistake. With Ruger bringing it back in 4" SP101, I think they are going in the right direction.

 

[ATLDave]

I think another factor is that the rate of consumption/acquisition by gun owners has been very high for many years. At this point, anyone truly interested in guns already has several of the typical "service caliber" guns; enough of them get bored and simply want something new and different to create a certain level of demand.

I say this as someone who owns multiple 10mm's, a .41 mag, and is on the lookout for the right .327!

 

[BobWright]

As far as "new cartridges" is concerned, cartridges such as the ,357 Magnum and the .44 Magnum were introduced with fanfare from the press and actually filled a niche. Current cartridges only seem to capitalize on the previous popularity, and sort of seem too specialized. A .357 Magnum or .44 Magnum seem to me to be about optimum as far as the gun size is concerned ~ that is, a handgun that can be easily carried and brought into action with one hand. The .327 Magnum doesn't offer an better performance down range over a .357 Magnum. Touted as a defensive revolver, still doesn't displace a good .38 Special, chart performance not withstanding.

The .41 Magnum was introduced sort of as a mid-magnum between the .357 and .44, yet was too close to the .44 Magnum to really make a difference.

The current .475's, and up, require five shot revolvers, and big oversize frames to the point they are sort of specialized guns. Most shooters want a general purpose sidearm.

My views on the matter, anyway.

Bob Wright

 

[Jim NE]

I'm wondering if the so called ".41 Special" loads and cartridges might eventually generate interest in .41 Mag. They'd have to come down in price a bit...I think they've been out a few years now, but the low quantity of ammo produced keeps the price rather high. It'd be cool if someone like Charter Arms or S&W made a snubbie .41 Special revolver.

 

[ray15]

10mm has been around for a while now - but it's always missed the 'sweet spot' for most shooters. If you are looking for a truly powerful autoloader cartridge, it is certainly that. But it is more of a handful than most shooters want or need, and those that do may already have a bevy of heavy revolvers in 41/44 mag, 45LC, .454 etc. The designers of the 40S&W backed off the violence to more attractive levels for most shooters, and it comes as no surprise that a caliber that suites the purposes of more shooters will succeed to a greater degree in the marketplace. With the 40S&W also starting to be seen a more violent than necessary in the defensive gun application and loosing sales to 9mm, there's no doubt in my mind what has limited the market penetration of the 10mm. It's a fine cartridge, but for many is a solution in search of a problem.

 

[v35]

I'd turn it around and ask the converse.

The "wonder nine" became instantly popular... then almost as quickly disparaged... only to become popular again.

Today you never hear remarks like "it had better start with a 4" but not long ago that refrain was quite common.

 

[JeffG]

I think some shooters are just looking for something different; if gun companies can sway market interests, a trend is born. ..Shooters see it or hear about it, they research it and buy it. Expectations aren't always met and the interest wanes. Shooters see something different, sell old guns and buy the new thing... A lot of it is dependent on gun company marketing, and magazine articles. A successful gun/load combination doesn't always sell right away, but one bad run of product is doomsday.

 

[jmr40]

Count me as a 10mm fan. But I recognize that it is a niche round with limited appeal. For someone looking for personal protection from 2 legged predators the better 9mm loads are about as good as it gets. 40S&W just isn't enough better to justify the recoil. 45 simply isn't any better period, why deal with added recoil and 1/2 the mag capacity. If you're looking for a handgun hunting round then one of the long barreled magnum revolvers is in a different league where 10mm can't keep up.

I think the internet makes us think certain guns or cartridges are more popular than they are in the real world. Some of the most talked about and popular guns I read about on the net are almost never seen in the real world. As a rule the guys who post here and on other gun forums are not typical gun owners and you're more likely to run across more guys using oddball stuff. Sometimes we forget that. That said, the 10mm has enough of a following that it ain't going away.

Where 10mm excels for me is as my hiking/camping pistol where there is a possibility of large 4 legged predators as well as 2 legged threats. The better loads push 200 gr bullets between 1200-1300 fps from my G29. That isn't terribly far behind actual real world 44 mag performance when fired from 3-4" barreled revolvers. My G29 is a full pound lighter and 1" shorter than my 3" Smith 629 and depending on the magazine I have 11-16 rounds available. A longer 6-8" 44 or 357 magnum barrel would have considerably more power and along with a better trigger would certainly be more accurate at distance.

My gun is and light and small enough for long back country backpack trips with enough power and accuracy for close range SD shooting regardless if the threat has 4 or 2 legs. A longer barreled revolver would offer more power, but at the expense of weight and size. It would also be less desirable for human threats.

 

[TomJ]

In addition to what jmr40 explained regarding the 10mm, it fills another need, for me anyway. My nightstand gun is a G20 loaded with 180 grain Gold Dots from Underwood. We have too many drug problems here as well as a number of break ins in our area. While I won't tell you I'm uncomfortable with a 9/40/45 (no caliber wars, please), I feel better with a 10mm for a home defense gun, especially if dealing with someone who's on drugs. My G20 has recoil on par with my 1911's, and I shoot it well.

 

[.308 Norma]

I know that Dirty Harry more or less made the 44 mag instantly popular,

Well yeah, but your question was about a lag in popularity for a "newly introduced cartridge." The 44 mag was introduced in 1955, but Dirty Harry didn't come along until what, 1972?
Besides that, I don't know if it's true or not, but I've heard and read that right after Dirty Harry came out, you couldn't find a new Model 29 Smith for sale anywhere. Yet shortly after that, near new Model 29 Smiths were for sale everywhere.
To answer your question though, IMO how quickly a newly introduced cartridge gains popularity used to be largely based on how hard it's pushed by the various professional gun writers. Nowadays, I think those of us on these internet message boards also have a part on how fast a newly introduced cartridge gains popularity. Or for that matter, how fast a newly introduce cartridge falls flat no matter how hard the professional gun writers push it.

I think the internet makes us think certain guns or cartridges are more popular than they are in the real world.

Yeppers, that too.

 

[Zaydok Allen]

Well yeah, but your question was about a lag in popularity for a "newly introduced cartridge." The 44 mag was introduced in 1955, but Dirty Harry didn't come along until what, 1972?

Oh that's right. The cartridge had been around for quite awhile, it was the instant increase in popularity of the model 29 I was thinking of. Thanks.

 

[Cannibul]

Count me as a 10mm fan. But I recognize that it is a niche round with limited appeal. For someone looking for personal protection from 2 legged predators the better 9mm loads are about as good as it gets. 40S&W just isn't enough better to justify the recoil. 45 simply isn't any better period, why deal with added recoil and 1/2 the mag capacity. If you're looking for a handgun hunting round then one of the long barreled magnum revolvers is in a different league where 10mm can't keep up.

I think the internet makes us think certain guns or cartridges are more popular than they are in the real world. Some of the most talked about and popular guns I read about on the net are almost never seen in the real world. As a rule the guys who post here and on other gun forums are not typical gun owners and you're more likely to run across more guys using oddball stuff. Sometimes we forget that. That said, the 10mm has enough of a following that it ain't going away.

Where 10mm excels for me is as my hiking/camping pistol where there is a possibility of large 4 legged predators as well as 2 legged threats. The better loads push 200 gr bullets between 1200-1300 fps from my G29. That isn't terribly far behind actual real world 44 mag performance when fired from 3-4" barreled revolvers. My G29 is a full pound lighter and 1" shorter than my 3" Smith 629 and depending on the magazine I have 11-16 rounds available. A longer 6-8" 44 or 357 magnum barrel would have considerably more power and along with a better trigger would certainly be more accurate at distance.

My gun is and light and small enough for long back country backpack trips with enough power and accuracy for close range SD shooting regardless if the threat has 4 or 2 legs. A longer barreled revolver would offer more power, but at the expense of weight and size. It would also be less desirable for human threats.

Please share which loads will push a 200 gr bullet to 1200-1300 fps through a 3.77" barrel. Those same loads through a 5" should gain close to another 100 fps.

 

[jmr40]

Please share which loads will push a 200 gr bullet to 1200-1300 fps through a 3.77" barrel. Those same loads through a 5" should gain close to another 100 fps.

http://www.doubletapammo.net/index.php?route=product/product&path=125_178&product_id=594

I've gotten 1315 fps through my G20 with a 4.5" barrel, it is advertised at 1300. The shorter G29 is advertised at 1240. I've not actually shot the G29 over a chronograph yet, but the G20 was right where they said it should be.

 

[jmr40]

Some cartridges do take a while. The 270 had been on the market for 25 years and very nearly dropped from production due to lack of sales. Then a guy named Jack O'Connor started shooting elk and deer with it at long ranges. When he started writing about it in Outdoor Life the 270 suddenly took off.

The 6.5X55 was introduced in 1891. It was always popular in Europe for elk size game, but Americans have been brainwashed into believing it took large calibers and heavy bullets to kill stuff. Right now the 6.5 Creedmoor is the hottest selling new round, but in reality it duplicates the ballistics of the 6.5X55. While not the exact same round it took over 120 years for shooters to recognize the potential.

The 45-70 was introduced in 1873 as a military round. Within 20 years it was all but dead. It lay dormant and all but unused until 1973. Marlin re-introduced the round and a modern version of their 1895 rifle to celebrate the 100th birthday of the round. Even then sales were slow until very recently. I'd bet money the 45-70 has taken more game in the 21st century than in the 19th and 20th centuries combined.

 

[.308 Norma]

I'd bet money the 45-70 has taken more game in the 21st century than in the 19th and 20th centuries combined.

Not disagreeing, and wouldn't bet against you, but why do you think that is? Why would a 19th century cartridge become so popular as a hunting cartridge in the last 17 years?

 

[murf]

as soon as a gun to fit the performance and use of the 10mm cartridge came along (glock 20,29), ammo sales started to rise. sorry, seven rounds in a delta elite didn't cut it for "magnum" defense against man or beast. fifteen rounds in a bullet proof platform is what it took.

the wonder nine took off in the eighties when the army adopted the baretta 92. the browning hi-power was around and didn't stimulate sales at all.

cowboy action shooting brought back a few calibers that were collecting dust in the back of the closet: 45 long colt, 44 special, and some old lever action cartridges.

the industry-wide focus on accuracy has fueled the 6.5 mm craze. the best selection of high bc bullets, i think, is why the other calibers fall short in the "precision" game.

imo,

murf

 

[Rexster]

I'm wondering if the so called ".41 Special" loads and cartridges might eventually generate interest in .41 Mag. They'd have to come down in price a bit...I think they've been out a few years now, but the low quantity of ammo produced keeps the price rather high. It'd be cool if someone like Charter Arms or S&W made a snubbie .41 Special revolver.

Actually, the 210-grain LHP .41 Magum factory load was a "warm" Special, more so than a Magnum, in my opinion. The 175-grain Winchester Silvertip is no Special, but it is a relatively mild Magnum, and my load of choice for police duty and personal carry in my S&W Model 58, from 1985 to about 1991. In 1991, I set aside my suddenly-finicky .45 Colt Commander, and the Model 58, to make a SIG P220 my 24/7 duty/carry gun. I reverted to revolvers in 1993, because the heel-clip mag release of the old-school P220 tended to snag patrol car seat cushions, allowing a partial release of the magazine. My Model 58 was a bit loose by then, so I started carrying my GP100, and within a few weeks had used a full-pressure .357 defensively against a human adversary. The result was quite successful, and I never saw a need to use big bore Magnums against humans again.

Nothing is wrong with 10mm as a woods cartridge, in my opinion. I briefly owned a G29, which I sold or traded when I learned that a Short Frame version was likely to appear, which would be better for my medium-length fingers. (It was not yet clear I would be allowed to qual with a pistol that had a serious grip reduction; I must qualify with my off-the-clock carry weapons, too, if I will use them defensively against human adversaries.) I have yet, however, to acquire a G29 Short Frame or Gen4, because I continue to like revolvers for woods/field/rural carry, and am stuck in the city most of the time, anyway, so a 10mm Glock has not been a priority.

 

[Speedo66]

The 6.5X55 was introduced in 1891. It was always popular in Europe for elk size game, but Americans have been brainwashed into believing it took large calibers and heavy bullets to kill stuff. Right now the 6.5 Creedmoor is the hottest selling new round, but in reality it duplicates the ballistics of the 6.5X55. While not the exact same round it took over 120 years for shooters to recognize the potential.
.

I think the past flood of cheap Swedish Mausers had everything to do with introducing that "caliber" to the American shooter. We were never big on foreign rifle cartridges, it took cheap imports like the SKS and other various military imports to get us there. It wasn't until the M-14 that we used a widely accepted rifle cartridge expressed in mm, and even then we went back to a caliber designation for the civilian version.

Once the accuracy potential of the Swedes was recognized, we then accepted that size bullet. Looking to satisfy our love for semi autos has led to necked up AR's in that caliber. Appears the 6.5 is now here to stay.

 

[Tirod]

One aspect is that 10mm was already official issue with some Federal agencies but they have decided to replace it, putting a lot of LEO trade-ins on the used gun market. Many others have followed at the local level. That has put thousands - if not tens of thousands - of auto pistols into the market where users and collectors have snapped them up.

Try finding a 10mm S&W 3Gen now. Even the mags go for good prices. With all those guns in hand, what do you do? Shoot them. So ammo has seen increased demand as those guns in the hands of owners will get shot more than annual qualifications and then riding in holsters on duty.

Give it 7-9 years and .40 will be moving briskly on the used market again when those are sold off. As another example - 9mm Makarov. Nobody much cared 5 years back, but now the used guns are being imported from foreign sources in reasonable quantities and the pocket gun and collector sales are taking off. So is ammo, which is actually finding shelf space at gun stores. And if we ever see the CMP sell off 1911's, those 10,000 a year will get shot, adding their presence to ammo sales, too, tho it won't be as easy to see with the current demand.

When you can pick up older guns in "obsolete" working calibers for half price or less, expect it to be revived again as the new owners buy them and then shoot them. It's only when those guns are demilled and destroyed when we don't see the surge. Quite a few thousands of 1911's and M14's destroyed in the Clinton era never got to contribute to that - which should explain why some don't want to sell them off. It supports our shooting activities.

 

[hdwhit]

460 Shooter wrote:
Is there typically a lag in popularity for a newly introduced cartridge?

Inevitably, Yes.

To be successful, a newly introduced cartridge has to have three things:

• A manufacturer (preferably more than one) chambering a gun for the cartridge
• A manufacturer (again, preferably more than one) making factory ammunition for the cartridge
• Consumers wanting to buy the gun and the ammunition.

When a cartridge and associated gun is introduced there will be a finite amount of time that has to pass before enough are sold to generate the consumer demand required to cause more manufacturers to make the decision to invest in making guns and ammunition for the cartridge, so a lag is inevitable.

 

[BobWright]

The 45-70 was introduced in 1873 as a military round. Within 20 years it was all but dead. It lay dormant and all but unused until 1973. Marlin re-introduced the round and a modern version of their 1895 rifle to celebrate the 100th birthday of the round. Even then sales were slow until very recently. I'd bet money the 45-70 has taken more game in the 21st century than in the 19th and 20th centuries combined.


The old buffalo hunters killed a heap of critters with the .45-70, no way of knowing how many. The .45-70 cartridge was popular with the hunters as civilian hunters could draw ammunition from Government stocks. And the Winchester Model 1886 was chambered for the big punkin' ball cartridge. While it has gained some popularity in the last seventeen years, still wonder how game taken would compare to numbers of the 1800s and early 1900s.

Bob Wright

 

[CraigC]

The better loads push 200 gr bullets between 1200-1300 fps from my G29. That isn't terribly far behind actual real world 44 mag performance when fired from 3-4" barreled revolvers.

This is just patently false. I have no issues with the 10mm but sometimes its fans get a little carried away. The 10mm comes nowhere near the .41Mag, let alone the .44Mag.

The 45-70 was introduced in 1873 as a military round. Within 20 years it was all but dead. It lay dormant and all but unused until 1973. Marlin re-introduced the round and a modern version of their 1895 rifle to celebrate the 100th birthday of the round. Even then sales were slow until very recently. I'd bet money the 45-70 has taken more game in the 21st century than in the 19th and 20th centuries combined.

I would really love to know where your perception of the .45-70 comes from. Did a big .45-70 fan steal your girlfriend in high school or something?

 

[TomJ]

This is just patently false. I have no issues with the 10mm but sometimes its fans get a little carried away. The 10mm comes nowhere near the .41Mag, let alone the .44Mag.



I would really love to know where your perception of the .45-70 comes from. Did a big .45-70 fan steal your girlfriend in high school or something?

It's possible to address this another way. These are the types of posts that cause threads to degenerate and get shut down.

 

[CraigC]

It's possible to address this another way. These are the types of posts that cause threads to degenerate and get shut down.

Been there and done that, numerous times. This is only about the tenth time I've asked for the source is his (mis)information.