Kalif. recall - Las Vegas odds favor Cruz to replace Davis

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rick_reno

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Looks like Crud has it locked up. I'm wondering what appointment Red Davis will end up with under Boozamonte. You folks backing McClintock might as well vote for Gary Coleman - this thing is all but over. The amazing thing is the Republicans have blown a fantastic opportunity to put a Republican (even if in name only - i.e. Arnold) into Sacramento. It's too bad and may hurt Bush in 2004.

http://www.dailynews.com/Stories/0,1413,200~20954~1619618,00.html

Las Vegas odds favor Cruz to replace Davis

By Staff and Wire Services

Bet Bustamante.

That's the advice of Las Vegas oddsmakers, who predict California voters will recall Gov. Gray Davis and replace him with the state's No. 2 man.

America's Line gives Lt. Gov Cruz Bustamante 4-5 odds, meaning he is so likely to win that a gambler who wagers $5 on him would win only $4.

Even money is on Arnold Schwarzenegger, but nowhere near the 7-5 odds he enjoyed before he skipped last week's candidates' debate.

State Sen. Tom McClintock is a 20-1 pick, followed by commentator Arianna Huffington, 30-1; former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, 40-1; and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, 50-1.

Hustler Publisher Larry Flynt, adult film star Mary Carey and former child star Gary Coleman are 500-1 choices.

Everyone else in the crowded field is lumped together at what some may consider a generous 1,000-1.

As far as Davis is concerned, America's Line predicts he will be recalled Oct. 7, despite his recent improvement in the polls. The money line is minus-400 for yes on the recall and plus-300 for no.

Citizens who cast ballots by mail are known for their loyalty in voting. More than 1.2 million voters have permanent absentee status, and hundreds of thousands more are expected to join them for the Oct. 7 recall election.

"The absentee vote is going to be very important, critical," said state Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres, whose party plans to contact 2.1 million likely absentee voters.

In addition, Democrats will send three separate mailings to about 300,000 voters who regularly vote by mail, laying out the reasons the party opposes the recall.

Republican Party officials didn't comment on absentee ballot plans, but the pro-recall group Rescue California kicks off an absentee voting campaign this week that targets Republicans and independents in conservative-leaning counties, spokesman Dave Gilliard said.

Going postal

With absentee voters expected to cast about one-third of recall ballots, campaigns courted them where they vote -- their mailboxes. Schwarzenegger has sent out 2 million brochures and McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, has mailed 300,000. Schwarzenegger's message calls for ending the "outrageous car tax," enacting a constitutional spending cap and making English the nation's official language.

Path to obscurity

The recall's catapult of Bustamante into the national spotlight is fast pushing two wannabe California governors, Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Treasurer Phil Angelides, into obscurity.

The two Democrats have raised $10 million each for the 2006 race, only to find Bustamante flying far ahead of them with less money. Neither has endorsed Bustamante's campaign. To get back on track, both need a victory by Davis or Schwarzenegger. Lockyer recently stood with Davis at a Labor Day rally, but left when Bustamante arrived on the same stage.

The other Feinstein

In the medley of little-known candidates in the recall race, one name stands out: Feinstein. It's not who you think, but Dan Feinstein, a San Francisco visual-effects artist. The 40-year-old Democrat is a distant cousin of U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, but he has never met her. He calls himself "a regular Joe" and said he understands the problems of most people, such as unemployment or the fear of it and the effect of raising tuition. Feinstein acknowledges he has no chance of winning but said he was making a point that a regular guy should run state government.
 
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