My analysis of handgun cartridge ballistics

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db4570

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I have been an enthusiastic student of external ballistics for many years. I am currently evaluating and adapting my handgun choices, and, once again, am deep into looking at the performance of various handgun rounds.

I put together a graph in Excel where I have plotted the bullet weight vs. the velocity of popular handgun rounds. I find it is useful for seeing in a graphic format how the various rounds compare. From it I have put together some general ideas, if not conclusions.

ballistics-2b_zps77c1b8ae.jpg

This may backfire, inviting more argument than it solves. We will never agree, for instance, whether heavy and slow (ala .45 Auto) or small and fast (.357) is more effective; I myself don’t know, although I know both are better than light and slow.

What seemed to make sense to me, however, was that any particular cartridge can be expected to have roughly the same amount of useful stopping power, in whatever weight/velocity combo you prefer. For instance, in .357 Magnum, you can get load of 125 g @ 1500 fps, or 158 @ 1250. People can argue all day long about which they’d prefer, but hopefully agree that both are in the same basic range of effectiveness.

So assuming we can agree on that premise, I plotted them on a graph, along with representative velocity/weight plots for all other popular rounds. And if you look at the graph, you’ll see that the curve for the plots of the heavy/slow end of the .357 overlap with the light/fast end of the .40 range, which in it’s heavy/slow range overlaps the high/fast range of 45 Auto. Which leads me to conclude that reasonable people might agree that the three rounds are roughly similar in effectiveness. This should make a lot more sense if you look at the actual graph and the curves I have drawn on it.

So from this graph I am putting together some general guidelines for my own education and study, if nothing else. Here they are:

1. As mentioned above, 357, 40, and 45 Auto are all in the same range of very effective defense rounds. From there, the only real jump up is to the big 41 and 44 Mags. (I am old-school enough that I don’t embrace 454 Casull, etc. If you can’t find it at WalMart in a pinch, I’m not interested.)

2. There is a definite step down to the next most effective group, the 9s, with a couple 38 +Ps nipping at their heels. I consider this class of cartridge also to be a very effective defense round, mainly because I consider 38 Special to be very effective (go ahead and sneer, but most US law enforcement did just fine with it for many decades), and 9 is definitely a step up in performance.

3. I was surprised to see that 38 Special is a kissing cousin to the 380 Auto, which, due to my admitted respect for the 38 mentioned above, makes the 380 more respectable in my eyes than it was originally.

4. The come the 32s, all on a similar curve (except the oddball Federal, which is up there with 9). And 32 Auto definitely looks the best of the rest of the 32s. 32s were always kind of an orphan round to me. But I’m starting to come around on it, especially for “pocket” guns. I figure it’s the round that James Bond was forced to upgrade to from his crummy but beloved 25. Yes, I know James Bond is fiction, but the gun was recommended to the author Ian Fleming by a renowned gun expert. It was standard police issue for many European police and military forces. And ballistically it doesn’t look too terrible.

5. And then we have the 22 and 25. If you look at the general shape of the curves for the other rounds, you see that they are another big step down, but just about identical to each other in effectiveness using my method.

I used specs for common off-the-shelf ammo, mostly Remington and Federal, mostly because their on-line ballistics charts were easiest to navigate. I also wanted to eliminate any exotic loadings that aren’t mainstream. Again, does it pass the WalMart test? I usually tried to pick an effective defense bullet, like a Hydrashok or other good jacketed hollow point, rather than ball, or wadcutter, or something else.

So maybe this will be helpful, or maybe it will just get everyone angry. We’ll see!

Best,

David
 
It appears that these were out of the normal expected barrel length for each caliber. There are certainly cases where there is overlap when for example a 9mm +P+ from a Glock 34 compared to a 45 ACP from a 3" sub-compact 1911. Also the other factor is design of the bullet. The popular calibers have some really hi-tech bullets, where you would not see the same in say .32 ACP. I do agree with your observations, restated 9X19, .4o S&W and .45ACP out of a reasonable sized gun with modern bullets are all suitable for self defense against humans.
 
Sorry, but I think all you have demonstrated is that within a caliber heavier bullets have lower velocities. I don't think that you can say much about effectiveness from your graph other than making the assumption that bullets of the same weight at higher velocities (thus having higher energy) are more effective.
 
Your chart is interesting, but doesn't really do much to predict a cartridges effectiveness. The biggest problem I see is that your velocities are very optomistic in some cases. A 125 gr 357 mag @ 1500 might be possible in an 8" long test barrrel in a labratory, but it ain't gonna happen from a 4" revolver typically used in the real world. Realistically you are going to see 1250-1350 depending on the individual gun and load. A 124 gr. 9mm +p will come within 50 fps of that when fired from real guns, not test barrels.

Only 3 things really matter in the end. Penetration, expansion and placement. How a bullet goes about doing those 3 things does not matter. Placement is really up to the shooter. Penetration and expansion have more to do with bullet design (at least up to a point) than whether it has 9mm, 40, 45, 357 or 44 stamped on it.
 
Your chart gives you a momentum (mass x velocity) biased view of cartridge effectiveness. If you want to see what it looks like with an energy bias (the light and fast crowd), you need to square the velocity.
 
The problem with light and fast is when the bullet strikes a large bone it fragments for lack of a better term. I shot a deer with a 125 gr 357 JSP. While the shot did take the deer, everything was perfect. The deer was broadside at the perfect angle. The bullet did not pass through the deer. I shot a deer that was facing me in the chest with a 357 mag, 180 gr cast bullet. The cast bullet passed through 34" of bone and flesh then exited the deer. Both shots were made with a Ruger Blackhawk with a 6.5" barrel.
 
Guys. Take a deep breath.

This chart and post aren't about the debate between velocity and weight. It has been done to death.

It's not about bullet placement and expansion and penetration. Very important stuff, but this chart doesn't claim to address that.

It's not about nitpicking every little detail, like about the exact barrel length used for each figure. I found some data, and put it together. I'm sure it could use some fine-tuning.

It's not about deer hunting stories.

What it is is a handy graphic that shows where the various rounds compare to each other. It may be a little confusing in that the power level does not go on an x or y axis; instead it goes diagonally, from bottom left to top right, crossing the curve lines I drew.

Here's an example of how it might be used. A friend just got a 40. Having been away from auto pistols for a while during the time the 40 was really getting popular, I knew it was considered a respectable round, but didn't really have a feel for exactly where it stood in the overall mix of cartridge choices. So when I look at the chart, I see that the 40 neatly bridges the gap on the line between the 45s and the 357s. So if you want something in that general power range, you can pick your preference. Do you like heavy and slow? Go 45. Do you like fast and light? Go 357. Something in the middle? 40.

It's really pretty simple. Let's not make it more complicated than it is.

David
 
Thanks for making the chart and posting it. That's a pretty cool visual aid.

As for actual ballistics, between reports I've read and what my own chronograph has given, I've give the .357 an easy 150-fps edge over the 9mm with 125gr bullets. Remington/UMC 125gr loads do 1425 or so from my 4" 586 while Winchester 127gr +P+ 9mm does 1270 fps from my Glock 17 with a 4.5" barrel. The 9mm is significantly more comfortable to shoot though.

Certaindeaf said:
So a 100 grain 9mm goes 1400? I thought a 115 went/goes 1500+.

Most common 115gr 9mm ammo is about 1200-fps (again, my chronograph and G-17), +P and +P+ ammo will do 1250-1300. Some boutique ammo may go hotter but I've neither tried it nor desire to. After all, I do have a .357 if I need more punch.

As for the .44 Magnum, I don't own one anymore but I do remember 1300-fps with a 240gr bullet was easy with a 6" revolver. That was actually factory Winchester White Box; my reloads were throttled back to about 1200-fps for comfort.
 
Sorry, but I think all you have demonstrated is that within a caliber heavier bullets have lower velocities.

Agreed. OP is plotting velocity against abject projectile weight... What exactly is that supposed to show?
 
Agreed. OP is plotting velocity against abject projectile weight... What exactly is that supposed to show?

I'd like some clarification as to the point of this exercise, too. Can the OP help us out please? :)
 
.Most common 115gr 9mm ammo is about 1200-fps (again, my chronograph and G-17), +P and +P+ ammo will do 1250-1300. Some boutique ammo may go hotter but I've neither tried it nor desire to. After all, I do have a .357 if I need more punch..
I understand. It does and good for you. It's always good to carry a cubic ball of goodness, I guess.
 
7.62x25

I think the CZ 52 and the PPS-43 are good rounds,some claim 1950 FPS.I like both.I will always have a 1911,and a Ruger p89 9MM. I just like GUNS..:cool:
 
Nice chart. Unfortunately, it tells you almost nothing about what cartridge/load combination is more effective than another.

Terminal ballistics is not a simple science. Highly educated and qualified people have made entire careers out of the study, and still don't have all the answers.
 
db4570, David, Thank you.

Cool!

Thanks for creating your visual aid. It is illuminating and useful and I appreciate the work and thought you put into it.

I apologize for the members who find fault with it for being what it is, and not what they wish.

In the expectation that you will appreciate feedback, here is some of mine.

You mentioned leaving 454 Casull out because it is not commonly available. 45 Colt will fit the 454 Casull chamber and, while not as common as 44 Magnum is usable by the 454.

I think (I could be wrong, though) that you have some assumptions about the relationship between velocity, mass and effectiveness. There is (as you know) considerable debate on these matters. The theories, analyses and experiments of Thompson-LaGarde, Hatcher, Marshall and Sanow, the Strasbourge tests, etc should be interesting reading if you haven't seen them already. You said you were an "enthusiastic student" of terminal ballistics, but I have no idea what you have studied, so forgive me if I underestimated.

Critique over.

If you are into making such charts, factoring in frontal area (hollowpoints successfully expanded or not) might be illustrative. This is not a shortcoming of your current chart, just a suggestion for the future if you enjoy the exercise.

Considering what you wrote, you might enjoy the web site "Ballistics by the inch". The guys who created that site put a lot of work into clocking velocity vs barrel length. A great service to the rest of us and, like you, completely for the love of the sport. A LOT of shooting and it makes for VERY interesting reading.
http://ballisticsbytheinch.com/

Velocity, momentum and energy have an interesting relationship. In physics, in terminal ballistics and in our minds.

Again, thanks.

Lost Sheep
 
The problem with looking at energy levels is that the biggest determination in what a bullet will do is based more on the design of the bullet than on the energy levels, and sometimes more energy makes for a less effective bullet (i.e. wider expanding, thus shorter penetrating).

When looking at what you want for a human attacker, the energy does the work on the bullet, but what you primarily want to see is penetration depth and expanded caliber. The actual energy value is irrelevant, what is relevant is the end result. When looking at what you want for something bigger (bear, zombies, body armor, whatever the flavor-of-the-week is) you want to look at the energy, but also the unexpanded caliber (should be a FMJ anyway) and the meplat.
 
The problem with looking at energy levels is that the biggest determination in what a bullet will do is based more on the design of the bullet than on the energy levels, and sometimes more energy makes for a less effective bullet (i.e. wider expanding, thus shorter penetrating).

When looking at what you want for a human attacker, the energy does the work on the bullet, but what you primarily want to see is penetration depth and expanded caliber. The actual energy value is irrelevant, what is relevant is the end result. When looking at what you want for something bigger (bear, zombies, body armor, whatever the flavor-of-the-week is) you want to look at the energy, but also the unexpanded caliber (should be a FMJ anyway) and the meplat.

This. It is what the bullet does at impact with its "power"/kinetic energy/momentum that is important.

Considering the OP's graph with bullet weight plotted along the x-axis and bullet velocity plotted along the y-axis, the slope of the broken line labeled "increasing/decreasing power" suggests simply that as bullet weight and bullet velocity increases, so too does "power" (or more correctly kinetic energy and momentum). Beyond this commonly known fact, I am not sure that the OP's graph really illustrates much of anything else.
 
In response #9 above I explained how this might be used.

I never claimed this was anything except a way to see the general power levels of various pistol cartridges, and how they stack up to each other.

I repeat, GENERAL.

I have many interests and hobbies, but for some reason, gun discussions are the absolute worst when it comes to attracting the nit-pickers, blind loyalists, and armchair experts. I see this on any forum related to guns, or just sitting around with the guys.

For crying out loud, people. All the ammunition manufacturers publish charts showing this information. I just show it a different way. That's all. I never claimed it was anything else. Why don't you write emails to the ammunition manufacturers telling THEM how useless their information is, compared to your vast reservoir of expertise on bullet design, or prowess with precise bullet placement, or wonders at making hot hand-loads. (I probably spoke too soon. You probably already do.)

This is a topic I enjoy. Too bad most people take the fun out of it.

David
 
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