Newbie wondering how long ammo prices stay high

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I just got a Fedex tracking # for my Cabela's order. So, ordered on 5/16, label created on 5/18, expected delivery on 5/21. This is the Herter's 9mm, $187 shipped for 1k. This, folks, is "normal pre-Covid" prices.

I'd say do NOT pay the big upcharges elsewhere, unless you're intentionally wanting to give someone extra money.
 
I did pass on a standing order for 124 gr Speer Lawman TMJ as the price went from .18 to .28/ea' Since I have plenty, I can wait to aee what happens; but i DID pick up a few thousand CCI Mini mags
 
I just got a Fedex tracking # for my Cabela's order. So, ordered on 5/16, label created on 5/18, expected delivery on 5/21. This is the Herter's 9mm, $187 shipped for 1k. This, folks, is "normal pre-Covid" prices.

I'd say do NOT pay the big upcharges elsewhere, unless you're intentionally wanting to give someone extra money.
Free ship too..interesting as the local Cabela's doesn't have this ammo.
 
Fedex dropped the Herter's off today :), which is good. So for those keeping score for 9mm range loads (my experience only):
  • Cabela's: regular price, 187 shipped and delivered within a week of ordering
  • Bass Pro: regular price (Federal aluminum, 197 with s/h + tax), delayed > 2 weeks. Weird note on this- both sites offer free shipping through Fedex and both listed the product as 179 ish (technically the Cabela's order was a dime more), and I used the same card to pay... Bass Pro charged $10 more in tax.
  • Fenix Ammunition (115 fmj reloads), took my order and gave me a 5% off coupon, $197 shipped, told me 4-6 weeks to ship during the ordering process.
  • SGAmmo (one of my preferred choices until now): Russian steel is over $209, PPU is 249, S&B/Fiocchi etc is 269, + 16 shipping and whatever tax.
  • TargetsportsUSA (another preferred): Russian steel 199, PPU 219, S&B (124 gr) and PMC is 239, Blazer and others 259, etc. Tax + free shipping.
  • Sportsman's Guide- last I looked (not this morning), just about everything is backorder but reasonable
My takeaway is that things are going back to normal. The ammo rush must have been HUGE, because I've never seen SGAmmo jack prices up before... I will watch them closely, because it's a bit disturbing on them. Looks like sellers like Sportsmans' Guide and Bass Pro/Cabela's actually kept the market normal, as instead of jacking everything up they let you back-order at regular price. TargetsportsUSA is trending back down, once we see another $20 off each case things will be back to normal with them.
 
Not deriding /Bass Pro/Cabela's, but have they improved their inventory tracking at all?
For a while, they were a hot mess.
 
Ordered 38spec, .380 and 22LR yesterday from Cabela's..got tracking info today..deliver next Tuesday..free ship also..
Prices 'seems' pretty normal to me.
 
Could some of you who have seen this before venture a guess as to how long ammo prices will remain this high?

We had been living in a time of historic lows for the cost of ammo. Most knew that election jitters were going to raise prices of Guns/Ammo anyway. The virus just accelerated the panic buying of "uncertain times" items - e.g. - canned goods, G/A, paper products, bulk foods like rice and beans, "emergency preparedness tomahawks," (haha) and the like. Right now, this is about the only time people other than hikers actually buy Mountain House freeze dried meals and personal water filters - haha. The whole virus aspect just added cleaning products to the list.

For guns and ammo, demand has increased considerably and this has given manufacturers the ability to raise prices. This may be an unpopular opinion, but that isn't evil of them. Do you think they had been making money these past few years? The casualty list of gun companies declaring bankruptcy was stacking up in an environment where demand was terribly low.

I'm not a savant, but if you had asked me in October 2016 about the price of ammo, I would have never thought that it prices would have dropped, let alone the lows we have seen - ever. However, with political stability that upholds the Constitution, no current declared wars, and relative physical safety - ammo prices fell through the floor due to low demand.


It's going to take that kind of climate for ammo prices to return to "normal," which we now see as the likely recent history low point.


It's kind of like what my friend Morty says:
"You take the red pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and ammo is cheap and available. You take the blue pill, you stay in Wonderland, and Uncle Joe will show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Remember, all I'm offering is the truth. Nothing more."
 
I ordered a case of Blazer Brass 5200 (9mm 115gr FMJ) from Bass Pro on 4/17 for $218 (Free shipping + TN tax), finally delivered last Friday (5/15). So four weeks there. Target Sports has been hit or miss (ordered a case of PMC 308B 5/1 and delivered 5/14. But ordered a case of Magtech 9A on 5/4 and it delivered 5/8 o_O. BulkMunitions has been good (a new site I found on AmmoSeek). Ordered a case of Federal P9HST1 on 4/27 for $599 (free shipping) and it landed on my porch on 4/29. Overall, I'd say ammo prices will be back to pre-COVID in a month or two... just in time for another run-up when the election season gets in full swing!!!
 
However, with political stability that upholds the Constitution, no current declared wars, and relative physical safety - ammo prices fell through the floor due to low demand.


It's going to take that kind of climate for ammo prices to return to "normal," which we now see as the likely recent history low point.
Not very long before all this started, I saw Geco white box for $154 a case online, and hesitated because shipping and tax would make it over $180... I agree we won't likely see that again anytime soon. But I do think the prices will level back down to where we are able to get things for at/under $200.

Seems like the supply chain was strained or broken, between the manufacturer and the middle man (the seller). If ammo is being made but isn't shipping out, smaller places like SGAmmo will feel the crunch and have to raise prices to meet costs; and larger companies (i.e. Bass Pro and Cabela's) can string out presales at decent prices, knowing they can eventually fill them.
If ammo manufacturing was low, it makes zero sense to see anyone sell things lower, even as a delayed shipment.
 
I just found a case of Tula steel case 9mm, $154. $167 shipped. I don't usually shoot steel, but I do have guns that will eat that without trouble, and a range that doesn't care about casing. At this price in this market, it's worth getting. Global Ordnance, it's on gundeals but not showing in wikiarms.


Added- so, tonight I received a shipping notification on my Bass Pro order. Label created, expected delivery on the 28th.

All indications are that the ammo shortage is ending, and the prices will drop.
 
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