Panic Prices; what we learned a decade ago?

[Bartholomew Roberts]

So, technically, a stripped receiver would be subject to the new laws. But the well-discussed thought is "how can they prove when you completed it?"

Effective January 2009, the new 4473 indicates whether the firearm sold was a stripped receiver or frame. Even prior to that, manufacturing and sales records would indicate how it left the factory.

Since the "grandfather clause" is an affirmative defense, you would need to present enough evidence to create a reasonable doubt in the minds of a judge or jury in order to win. If a U.S. District Attorney is standing there with testimony from the manufacturer and FFL that it was sold as a stripped lower and arguing that you are lying, you're going to want a more convincing answer that "Seriously, it was that way before the ban."

 

[2fewdaysafield]

Davandron,

Double checked on Pelosi. Rated "F" by NRA.

 

[danh427]

"IF" an new AWB is proposed I'll be watching to see what the NRA does. I feel they should see the handwriting on the wall and use every resourse, ever dollar to oppose it in the media and in the courts. If they "work" with congress to change a few lines and say they softened it but to no real effect, then I believe every God fearing, gun loving man and woman should pull out of that organization. At some point, the NRA has to step up to the plate or stop taking money.

I don't know exact numbers (of course), but I believe the NRA has around 4 million members which is probably about 5% of the gun owners in America. I believe I have seen numbers in the range of 80 million gun owners in America. What would happen if say 30-40% of US citizens that own guns would join the NRA? Would we even have these types of discussions regarding pending legislation? Imagine if we pulled together and join what the resulting influence would be. Politicians would recognize in short order that it would be complete political suicide to institute legislation infringing on the 2nd Amendment.

 

[MIgunguy]

far more people own AK and AR pattern rifles today than did in 1993. FAR more. And the venerable Winchester 94 and 70 are out of production entirely. I honestly don't think the gun controllers entirely understand the monster they have created.

Good point.

 

[punkndisorderly]

Another point, that a post above touched on -- an unintended consequence of gun control is the decline of competitive marksmanship and hunting

I heard a report on the radio the other day and, interestingly, the number of people applying for hunting permits is way up. They cited the poor economy (cheap food) and unemployment (more time to hunt) as reasons.

I don't think marksmanship is really less than it was in the 80's (about as far back as I can remember). Though it's a lot less than it was 50 years ago when there were dozens of active youth shooting organizations. I don't think fewer people hunt down here in the South, but I do think that the people who hunt, hunt less.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Davandron]

Has anyone else noticed prices dropping a little bit already?

A few websites I check often seem to be lower prices, and new threads/posts talking about shows say that, although busy, posters don't see people actually buying at the elevated prices.

If gun control, or political "gun safety", stays off the main stage for all of January we might see manufacturers able to catch up with demand and lower prices.

 

[buck00]

Has anyone else noticed prices dropping a little bit already?

A few websites I check often seem to be lower prices, and new threads/posts talking about shows say that, although busy, posters don't see people actually buying at the elevated prices.

At risk of being premature, I've noticed this too.

For example, JG sales has some decent prices on rifles:

http://www.jgsales.com/index.php/rifles/ak-47-and-rpk-rifles/cPath/209_214

A WASR for $490 isn't terrible. They were between $400 and $450 previously- this is higher but it isn't $600 or $650 like you saw in Dec on some sites.

Also a Tantal around $500 is almost spot on what it was prior to Obama winning.

Now, does JG have these in stock is another question.

 

[kyle1974]

quick translation.... once the loopholes were figured out and guns re entered the market.... prices dropped.

The author of that paper is assuming the loopholes were not responsible for the reduction in price.

IF the legislation is written, I would have to assume that they're not going to allow for any loopholes...

 

[Geneseo1911]

Classic Arms had some low cap WASRs yesterday for 329. I was gonna order one today, but they were already off the website this morning.

At the Indy 1500 last weekend, AR prices did seem to be more reasonable. P-mags were still $25, but I got some used Okays for $8. I think the demand is still high (couldn't get close to EBR tables), but supply is coming back a little. Handguns seemed to be more popular than EBR's at that show.

 

[ArmedBear]

A guy around here just sold a base-model RRA carbine upper for $650 if the buyer promised not to resell it at a profit. Flattop, no rear sight or handle, no options, regular cheap carbine handguard.

I was ROTFLMAO. Good for the seller!

That's under $450 mail order, including shipping. You just can't have it tomorrow.

 

[Hawk]

I'm far from optimistic on the train that's a comin' but I'm seeing a number of things that might be exploitable this time through.

In 1994 the public's confusion between EBRs and NFA-EBRs was profound. It's a little better now. When some MSM outlet confuses the issue the blogosphere descends with a vengeance. Methinks a "shoulder thing that goes up" faux pas would have passed without a ripple in 1993. Not so anymore.

I have no actual numbers but if memory serves, the NRA went from over 4 million to just over 3 million during the last 8 years - folks get comfortable. This decline has not gone unnoticed:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-sugarmann/nra-misplaces-a-million-m_b_98429.html
A new AWB would again spike membership. This had a discomforting effect on some representatives last time that they may not wish to repeat.

The Blaser R93 folks seem less inclined to throw the Remington R25 folks under the bus this time. We seem to be marginally less divided.

There didn't appear to be much interest in EBRs in 1992. A lot of the interest was manufactured by congress and, though common sense and short term memory isn't really their long suit, some may wish not to, once again, get "EBR salesman of the decade" awards. (It may already be too late to avoid this).

Whoever gets the credit, EBRs are something in 2009 that they could not aspire to in 2004: In Common Use. Everybody and his brother is making EBRs. If camo counts, even Remington has R15s and R25s in the catalog. The Supreme Court has simultaneously stated that certain classes of arms could be banned while giving protected status to those In Common Use. There were no worries whatsoever regarding constitutional muster in 1994. There probably still isn't but there may be some (perhaps only one or two) in congress that don't want to burn a fair portion of their political capital on something that might get ruled unconstitutional.

Were I a grabber, I'm not sure I'd want to take the chance on an AWB getting ruled unconstitutional - it'd be a bigger setback than Heller. Then again, I'm more circumspect than the average grabber.

I'm curious as to how a new magazine capacity limit might be administered. We already have tens of thousands, possibly more, of pistol magazines clearly marked "For Military and Police Use Only" which happen to be totally legal. How will the new ones be marked - "For Military and Police Use Only - And This Time We Mean it - 2009"? The devil is in the details.

Lastly, repeal is more difficult than sunset but not impossible. It is especially not impossible if congress and the executive branch conspire to push NRA's numbers over 5 million.

The last one didn't work to reduce crime. While such irritating little factoids are unlikely to trip up the faithful, they do serve to erode popular support.
I'm seeing a big difference in popular support. There's less of it now than before.

I agree with the poster that views congress as the dog that needs watched. Despite any inherent stupidity on the part of politicians I still find the theory that the transition team will push it to require a greater than average number of neural mis-fires. It would penalize directly those gun owners that went against the "party line" to vote that transition team into their current position and directly benefit the group they intend to slap by increasing membership by 50% or better. The NRA stands to benefit greatly (financially) by a run up to an AWB and it seems near incomprehensible that the new droids don't know that. The moonbats have to be given something but it's hard to picture the alternatives being worse in re: expenditure of political capital for dubious if not downright inverted, gain.

 

[elmerfudd]

Here's the deal as I see it. Obama, Reid and a few others in the leadership probably don't want to touch this with a 10' pole, but they very likely won't have a choice. You can be sure that the moonbat wing of the party and their more radical members of congress will bring this up. Now unless saner heads decide to block it in committee, it will pass and go to the floor. Once it makes it to the floor, those same Democrats that would rather ignore this issue will feel obligated to vote for it. There aren't enough solid conservatives to lead a filibuster.

At this point I think it's going to come down to what the Obama Administration wants. If they put out the word to congress that gun control is off the table then we'll likely be OK. If they don't then it will inevitably pop up somewhere and then snowball into a bill that becomes law.

So far, I'm cautiously optimistic. Obama has a history of being a gun grabber, but he has stated repeatedly that he's not planning to take away anyone's guns.

I think what will be far more likely will be severe tightening of bureaucratic regulations. They'll cut off all the imports and surplus ammo they can. They'll crack down on gun dealers. They'll have the justice department, ATF and other entities make things harder on us in a variety of ways. In any event it won't be a great time to be a gun hobbyist.

 

[Geneseo1911]

Well, thread drift aside, how much power does Reid have? Here in IL, our senate president Evil....oops I mean Emil Jones (Freudian finger slip) won't allow anything he doesn't like to come to a vote. Now that there's a Chicago Democrat in charge, maybe DC will lock up like IL has . I was shocked to learn that Harry Reid voted against Clinton's ban, and even merited a B from the NRA.

In all seriousness, could Reid suppress an AWB and prevent it from leaving committee or coming to a vote in the Senate?


I never thought I'd be pinning my hopes on the likes of Harry Reid.

 

[hounddog]

With the last assault weapons ban, atf opinion was if a preban receiver was not assembled in a preban configuration (>2 evil features), these features could not be added after the ban. By my way of thinking, if one were to be buying stripped lowers now in anticipation, just put a pistol grip on it, along with a collapsable stock, and you are at 3 evil features. (detachable mag, pistol grip, and collapsable stock). I believe you could even get a bolt on bayonet lug and wrap it around the trigger guard for good measure.

Looking at some of the pending legislation, all incorporate a grandfather clause. However, some require the transfer of high cap mags and "banned weapons" be done only through an FFL.

94 awb allowed 2 evil features on rifles, one proposed law only allows one evil feature. 2 or more and your out the door.

I don't remember all of the bill names to quote, but what passes is anyone's guess.

To give you some idea of prices last time......
G22 15 rd mags $120 in 2000
ruger 10/22 50 rd mags. Sold out around 1999 at $400. couldn't find them 2000. 30 rd mag went for $160.

Just my 2cents.

 

[2fewdaysafield]

I hate to say it, but I feel we'll be lucky if all we get is an permanent AWB similar to '94.