Gents, the doom and gloom is a bit premature. For a number of reasons, gun rights are not in the dire straights that some think they are right now. Certainly we need to be cautious and not let our guard down (that supposing we can even do anything), but I have a list of reasons why I don’t think MAJOR gun restrictions are imminent...
1. Trump, Obama, Bush, and Bill Clinton all took office to have at least one house of the legislature of their party (most of the time both). They all lost at least one house of Congress during a midterm. That’s VERY likely again this upcoming midterm. I don’t think Democrats are going to risk unpopular legislation like gun control that would make an almost certainty a sure certainty.
2. This election was supposed to be a blue tidal wave but looked more like the wake from a small John boat. Democrats lost seats in the house and picked up 2 in the senate, despite having to defend only half the number of seats that republicans did. The gun control party didn’t do as well as they had planned.
3. The senate is very evenly divided, and even still we have the filibuster. Chuck Schumer would be a fool to burn all his political capital on abolishing the filibuster on something like gun control... which may wouldn’t pass by simple majority in the senate anyway. Further, I don’t think the party in power has the firepower to abolish the filibuster. It may be threatened, but I doubt it’s realistic. There are moderate Democrat senators who are somewhat pro-2A (or more likely know their re-election is impossible if seen voting for gun restrictions).
4. Honestly, there are a lot of progressive issues that are much more popular and legislation is more likely or would be easier to pass. The American public is coming around to a minimum wage increase (it is needed, but not to $15.00 an hour IMO), everyone is still fixated on COVID, and healthcare is always very near the top of the list with the democratic platform.
5. Mitch McConnell is a skilled politician and a shrewd man. Ronald Reagan he isn’t, but he has been the senate majority/minority leader the pro-gun caucus has needed for some time now. I’m sure he has some tricks up his sleeve.
6. Democrat gun owners. Yes they exist. In greater numbers than we think. Many of them probably don’t own an AR15, but they also wouldn’t be ok with a total semi-auto ban. Which would pigeon hole wording on any potential AWB legislation into something more like that of 1994 (that did almost nothing). We don’t need to paint all of our fellow Americans that vote Democrat as gun hating communists, because all of them aren’t.
7. SCOTUS, in its current makeup, likely wouldn’t stand for any major federal gun restrictions more than what already exist. SCOTUS makeup being “packed” or tampered with would likely ensure Democrats would never have control of the senate for the next 50 years.
We can’t let our guard down, but I believe major federal legislation restricting gun rights significantly is a non-starter right now.