Price for NIB never fired Bushmaster M4gery?
- Thread starter Balrog
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adelbridge
Member
I saw asking prices of $1600-$1800 at the gun show this weekend. There was an hour line to get in and I went Sat morning and Sunday. Come sunday every semi auto pistol gripped oriented vendor was picked clean to the bone.
As for how long this madness will last? It is all based on supply and demand. I was told by a reputable source that Stag Arms and Rock River Arms combined back orders were approaching 1 million. If this is true they probably would take the next 3 years at current capacity to dig out of that hole. These two manufacturers probably account for less than 15% of total AR sales. Nobody can predict markets with 100% or even 80% certainty and we see this same hysteria in energy and precious metals markets. People gambling $1800 per AR are betting on some kind of federal restriction and in essence are setting the market price. 5.56 ammo is selling for near $1 per round right now. Production for .223/5.56 has been full before all this nonsense and orders are outrunning supply. If suppliers cant meet demand their only options are expansion or beat back the influx of orders with higher prices. In normal markets this would be where a new company steps in to the game to fill the vacuum but who would gamble the serious capital to create new production in the face of probable restrictions?
No one can adequately predict how near the AR market is to saturation but there isnt unlimited demand. maybe 5% of household have AR's and maybe demand is 7% of the households? I do know that much of the frenzy buying were speculators snatching up retail stock a week ago in order to resell for a quick profit. Record all this for future frenzies as the old bucks that are fueling this panic surely did.
Sounds like you want to sell your spare and maximize your return. I still believe in a free market economy despite our nation's socialist stance. The best way to do that is auction format. If your state allows individuals to sell guns on gun broker list it for $1 and the true market value will be written in stone.
As for how long this madness will last? It is all based on supply and demand. I was told by a reputable source that Stag Arms and Rock River Arms combined back orders were approaching 1 million. If this is true they probably would take the next 3 years at current capacity to dig out of that hole. These two manufacturers probably account for less than 15% of total AR sales. Nobody can predict markets with 100% or even 80% certainty and we see this same hysteria in energy and precious metals markets. People gambling $1800 per AR are betting on some kind of federal restriction and in essence are setting the market price. 5.56 ammo is selling for near $1 per round right now. Production for .223/5.56 has been full before all this nonsense and orders are outrunning supply. If suppliers cant meet demand their only options are expansion or beat back the influx of orders with higher prices. In normal markets this would be where a new company steps in to the game to fill the vacuum but who would gamble the serious capital to create new production in the face of probable restrictions?
No one can adequately predict how near the AR market is to saturation but there isnt unlimited demand. maybe 5% of household have AR's and maybe demand is 7% of the households? I do know that much of the frenzy buying were speculators snatching up retail stock a week ago in order to resell for a quick profit. Record all this for future frenzies as the old bucks that are fueling this panic surely did.
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MachIVshooter
Member
I think prices have probably stabilized at their high point, and will remain there for a bit (a few weeks). I suppose they could go up further, but I don't think the market will bear too much more. Basic M4geries like yours are moving at $1,600-$2,000, but the ones priced much above that are staying on shelves for the time being. At my buddy's shop, the number of people calling and coming in for ARs has been stupid, but they're still not buying the consigned guns with $2,500+ tags that were only $700-$900 two weeks ago. He did sell one for $4,000 on Saturday, but it was about a $2,300 rifle before.
It is conceivable that there'll be another rush and higher prices if a bill gets out of the senate, but I just don't think people are going to have the money after Christmas and when the CC bills start rolling in. And if that bill doesn't have a grandfather clause, nobody is going to want these guns they won't be able to keep, causing demand and prices to fall through the floor (unlikely, but possible)
IMO, if you're wanting max profit, sell now. People are still panicked and haven't been hit with their Christmas CC bill yet, so they're still loose with the plastic. Wait a month, my guess is you'll be one of many people trying to get top dollar in a market that has no dollars.
It is conceivable that there'll be another rush and higher prices if a bill gets out of the senate, but I just don't think people are going to have the money after Christmas and when the CC bills start rolling in. And if that bill doesn't have a grandfather clause, nobody is going to want these guns they won't be able to keep, causing demand and prices to fall through the floor (unlikely, but possible)
IMO, if you're wanting max profit, sell now. People are still panicked and haven't been hit with their Christmas CC bill yet, so they're still loose with the plastic. Wait a month, my guess is you'll be one of many people trying to get top dollar in a market that has no dollars.
I really dont even want to sell. I had just bought a while back when the market was low. I think I paid around $850 for it. If I can now double my money, I guess I might as well. Its hard to believe someone would pay $1500 or more for a Bushmaster, but I guess desperate people need guns too.
I hate to say this but you aren't burning anyone if they are willing to lay out the cash.
I had a buddy want to buy a stock A2 20" rifle I have.
I quoted him $700 cash a few months back and he hesitated.
He came up just before Christmas break and asked If I was still wanting to sell him the rifle.
I told him no, for obvious reasons...
I had a buddy want to buy a stock A2 20" rifle I have.
I quoted him $700 cash a few months back and he hesitated.
He came up just before Christmas break and asked If I was still wanting to sell him the rifle.
I told him no, for obvious reasons...
carbine85
Member
Bushmaster makes a good rifle. My Bushmaster A2 HB is one of the best I have.
Why sell it now? From what I've been watching some idiot panic buyer will pay $2000 in 1-2 months from now. Gunbroker.com is full of retards and gougers right now. I would wait and see what happens.
Why sell it now? From what I've been watching some idiot panic buyer will pay $2000 in 1-2 months from now. Gunbroker.com is full of retards and gougers right now. I would wait and see what happens.
hogshead
Member
Just remember you can always go down on the price but you cant go up.
Either your clueless and don't know how to search completed auctions on gunbroker or your gloating......which is it?
If your gloating over one lousy AR that's pretty sad. Quite a few of us own numerous black guns. I just watched my 17s sell for just over 7 grand..............
If your gloating over one lousy AR that's pretty sad. Quite a few of us own numerous black guns. I just watched my 17s sell for just over 7 grand..............
goalie
Member
Gunbroker told me that my USED Spikes middy was worth over fifteen hundred dollars today.
Kramer Krazy
Member
The only potential concern with selling now is that you may want to replace it, and depending on the future, you might have to either 1) pay out what you yours for, 2) pay more than you sold it for to replace it, or 3) wait a long time for prices to come back down. I saw this happen around '94-'95 when Harley Davidsons were worth 200%-400% what their pre-craze values were.
I know people who sold their bikes for a profit, only to have options 1-3 above happen. In some cases, not only did the people have to wait more than ten years for the inflated prices to come back down, but many opted to never replace the bike. I bought my HD in 1993 and in 1995 it was worth three times what I paid for it. It finally came back down to what I paid for it about three to four years ago and is finally worth less than I paid for it (after putting nearly 90k miles on it).
I'd hate to see something similar happen with firearms, but there is the potential.
I know people who sold their bikes for a profit, only to have options 1-3 above happen. In some cases, not only did the people have to wait more than ten years for the inflated prices to come back down, but many opted to never replace the bike. I bought my HD in 1993 and in 1995 it was worth three times what I paid for it. It finally came back down to what I paid for it about three to four years ago and is finally worth less than I paid for it (after putting nearly 90k miles on it).
I'd hate to see something similar happen with firearms, but there is the potential.
bubba in ca
Member
- Joined
- Nov 15, 2010
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- 373
Make hay while the sun shines.
There is no guarantee there is going to be a ban or that the pool of potential buyers won`t weary of the prices and go find something else to buy like semi-auto shotguns.
There is no guarantee there is going to be a ban or that the pool of potential buyers won`t weary of the prices and go find something else to buy like semi-auto shotguns.
Hokkmike
Member
Wish you well but don't care for the tone of "inevitability".
I am keeping my AK......
I can always make more money.
I am keeping my AK......
I can always make more money.
crossrhodes
Member
Lunch Money
I think that within a year you will see AR's for sale at lower prices simple because of the "mad rush". All those people who went and spent their lunch money, rent, pre income tax return and engagement ring money will be selling "buyers remorse",because their knee jerk reaction took to much out of their wallet.
I think that within a year you will see AR's for sale at lower prices simple because of the "mad rush". All those people who went and spent their lunch money, rent, pre income tax return and engagement ring money will be selling "buyers remorse",because their knee jerk reaction took to much out of their wallet.
goalie
Member
If you care about having one, or may need to replace it because it is your only one, don't sell.
That said, I just more than doubled my money on a used rifle. Made more than that on a bunch of PMags.
Stupid should hurt. I am just doing my civic duty.
That said, I just more than doubled my money on a used rifle. Made more than that on a bunch of PMags.
Stupid should hurt. I am just doing my civic duty.
swagbrdr
Member
"As for how long this madness will last? It is all based on supply and demand. I was told by a reputable source that Stag Arms and Rock River Arms combined back orders were approaching 1 million. If this is true they probably would take the next 3 years at current capacity to dig out of that hole. These two manufacturers probably account for less than 15% of total AR sales. Nobody can predict markets with 100% or even 80% certainty and we see this same hysteria in energy and precious metals markets. People gambling $1800 per AR are betting on some kind of federal restriction and in essence are setting the market price. 5.56 ammo is selling for near $1 per round right now. Production for .223/5.56 has been full before all this nonsense and orders are outrunning supply. If suppliers cant meet demand their only options are expansion or beat back the influx of orders with higher prices. In normal markets this would be where a new company steps in to the game to fill the vacuum but who would gamble the serious capital to create new production in the face of probable restrictions?
No one can adequately predict how near the AR market is to saturation but there isnt unlimited demand. maybe 5% of household have AR's and maybe demand is 7% of the households? I do know that much of the frenzy buying were speculators snatching up retail stock a week ago in order to resell for a quick profit. Record all this for future frenzies as the old bucks that are fueling this panic surely did."
Well put. Now, if we could only teach libs about economics...
No one can adequately predict how near the AR market is to saturation but there isnt unlimited demand. maybe 5% of household have AR's and maybe demand is 7% of the households? I do know that much of the frenzy buying were speculators snatching up retail stock a week ago in order to resell for a quick profit. Record all this for future frenzies as the old bucks that are fueling this panic surely did."
Well put. Now, if we could only teach libs about economics...
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MudPuppy
Member
I'd sell now or soon. I think the prices will return to normal in the next couple of months, perhaps with some good deals when the panic passes.
I think I'll sell a few things and squirrel away the money til then.
I think I'll sell a few things and squirrel away the money til then.
Carne Frio
Member
I agree, Mudpuppy. I'm going to thin out the herd
and sell a few guns for whatever I can get. I have
had them for years and no longer use them. Some
locals might enjoy them and the money always helps
when your retired.
and sell a few guns for whatever I can get. I have
had them for years and no longer use them. Some
locals might enjoy them and the money always helps
when your retired.
I ain't selling!
I care more about keeping them and having them to hand down to my kids than I do about making some quick cash.
Besides, look at the prices on full auto stuff that sold for a few hundred dollars in the early 80's before the '86 ban. $20K or more for an M16... Could be the same for semiauto's in the near future. If not than what, I missed the opportunity to make $500-1000? So what?
JMHO
I care more about keeping them and having them to hand down to my kids than I do about making some quick cash.
Besides, look at the prices on full auto stuff that sold for a few hundred dollars in the early 80's before the '86 ban. $20K or more for an M16... Could be the same for semiauto's in the near future. If not than what, I missed the opportunity to make $500-1000? So what?
JMHO
breakingcontact
Member
This may be true if you're interested in joining a registry.
brodgers60
Member
Yep nothing like profitterring off the deaths of 20 grade school kids.
JustinJ
Member
I don't know how much people are willing to pay but i just saw one on TX Gun trader for $2,500. That's with just the original mag it came with.
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