Purchasing connundrum: foreign/import guns vs. the value of USD

[Caimlas]

So, given the drop in the value of the dollar, do we look at a situation in a couple months where we'll see a drastic increase in "imported" guns - stuff like RIA, Taurus, Tikka, CZ, Glock, and Beretta?

The value of the dollar has lost 1/3rd of it's value in a fairly short period of time, and aside from "slow" and consistent across-the-board price increases, I've not seen a disproportionate increase in price on foreign guns, sometimes quite the contrary (I got a CZ 452 this past weekend for $275, for instance - which IIRC is a bit less than it'd have gone for 2 years ago).

Are we due for a marked increase, or have foreign gun manufacturers just decided to absorb the cost? I'm kind of anxious about this, because there are two pistols I've been eying for a while and saving for, but if they increase their prices by 1/3rd, I won't be able to justify the purchase.

Thoughts?

 

[Pete409]

Many factors such as business competition, volume of sales, exchange rates, etc affect the price we pay for imported guns. I can't see how a weakening dollar can do anything but RAISE the price we pay (in dollars) for imported guns. It's possible, of course, that other factors could offset this increase, but I wouldn't count on that happening.

 

[Fn-P9]

Aren't the guns in a store already paid for. They (corporate) would have bought the guns, then sent them to the local stores. I would imagine that that whole proceess could easily take a few months to go through. Atleast in a big retail chain. So wouldnt any prive increase be delayed from the current exchange rates?

 

[MakAttak]

Aren't the guns in a store already paid for. They (corporate) would have bought the guns, then sent them to the local stores. I would imagine that that whole proceess could easily take a few months to go through. Atleast in a big retail chain. So wouldnt any prive increase be delayed from the current exchange rates?

Likely not. The companies will charge you the "replacement price" of the gun. That is, the price it will cost them to replace the gun in their stock. Thus, the prices will go up quickly to reflect changes in the market. You may cry "gouging" as I have seen many people here do, but the reason this occurs is because when the prices go down, they also immediately lower the prices of their stock because they are subject to competition from the new imports.

It works just the same as gas- I see people saying: "What does it matter the price of a barrel of oil, they bought that gas when it was cheaper!!!" but those same people never seem to mind that the price of gas drops when a barrel of oil comes down in price....

 

[RoadkingLarry]

For any given market condition that will affect the end price of a given item you will probably not be wrong to predict an increase in price.

 

[Liko81]

It's even more complex than that in most cases. However, since firearms are serialized and regulated so highly, even Mom & Pop stores with paper files could simply log purchase cost (COGS) and sale price (revenue) in the bound book with the rest of the transfer info, and they then know their margin on the weapon at a glance.

In any case, prices won't go up until inventory turns over (they sell all they have now and stock new ones). How long that takes depends on whether people need or want import guns and realize that the falling dollar will eventually affect the price. How much the price goes up depends on retailers' policy; small gun shops will have to raise prices fairly quickly and sharply, while larger stores can cushion the price increase by taking less profit or even a loss and making up for it with marked-up accessories, or even in totally unrelated departments.

What P's me O is that no matter where the dollar goes, the politicians and the Fed say it's a good thing for trade. A falling dollar makes imports more expensive while making exports cheaper, so the trade deficit is balanced. A rising dollar increases the purchasing power and wealth of Americans to improve our standard of living. The problem is that the dollar is falling WHILE the economy is slowing (both exports AND imports are decreasing). It's called stagflation, and we last saw it while the Republicans held a long stint in power (broken only by Carter, who took office when economic growth had already slowed to 1% and the federal budget deficit was $66 billion). Whoever gets the Presidency next is going to find it in one hell of a mess, and if they can't find a quick way to reverse it they'll be out in one term.

 

[Caimlas]

the politicians and the Fed say it's a good thing for trade. A falling dollar makes imports more expensive while making exports cheaper, so the trade deficit is balanced. A rising dollar increases the purchasing power and wealth of Americans to improve our standard of living.

Yep - and in theory, it'd work, if we had anything left to export at all aside from our media (which, ironically, is taking a big hit right now due to the writer's guild strikes - that's big news which I htink is being largely overlooked).

The problem is that the dollar is falling WHILE the economy is slowing (both exports AND imports are decreasing). It's called stagflation, and we last saw it while the Republicans held a long stint in power (broken only by Carter, who took office when economic growth had already slowed to 1% and the federal budget deficit was $66 billion).

Precisely. I'd much rather it happen fairly slowly than quickly, so things might be able to naturally adjust - it should happen to some degree, where businesses start up to try and fill the gap - but I'm afraid that America no longer has the technical prowess to deal with much of the potential demand. Entirely too many of our populace are "classically educated" with no real working skills.

Whoever gets the Presidency next is going to find it in one hell of a mess, and if they can't find a quick way to reverse it they'll be out in one term.

Not to hijack my own thread and get all conspiratorial, but what makes you think that reversal of the trend is not on the agenda of "our" national politicians? You'd think some of them might say something - loudly- about the issue, but few are. No, our politicial system as a whole has been bought and paid for by special interests. Pick your poison: business corporations, pharmaceutical companies, foreign companies, oil cartels, foreign states... The whole process is corrupt from start to finish.

 

[30 cal slob]

[offtopic]

buy gold, store it offshore.

don't store it here in the u.s., it will eventually get expropriated.

here's a nifty place to do it:

http://www.bullionvault.com

[/offtopic]