Recession?

[cortez kid]

Went to my local Gander Mtn today to be amazed at the prices. Son of a gun, worked again. Any way, I noticed a lot more old Winchesters on the rack. More than I've seen before. Also thought I recognized a couple that had been there a while. I'm thinking either, 1) there was a lot of old shooters croaking and relatives fire saleing grandpa's old guns or 2) more people cleanning out there closets for gas/food/tax money. Has anybody else notice this trend and also what is a WWII manufacter? Had one there with that label on it.
kid

 

[paintballdude902]

if the people were smart they would be using the old rifles to get food thats what i do

 

[MCgunner]

Hog trap, bay full of fish, hunting rifles and shotguns. This country boy ain't gonna starve.

I don't think, if it's a recession, it's much of one what with under 6 percent unemployment. The inflation firing up is from oil prices directly, nothing else. I mean, I'm no economist, but I've seen recessions. Of course, if oil keeps climbing, God knows what will happen. We could have that TEOTWAWKI scenario everyone loves to buy guns for. LOL

I'm happy, I'm retired, market hasn't collapsed and is still making me money, and I don't punch a clock anymore. Have fishing reels and boat gas, no problem. Anyone selling grandpa's thuddy thuddy over THIS economy hasn't seen a real recession. I got laid off in 82 with a mortgage and a pregnant wife. This ain't squat....ROFL I sold my house, sold my boat, moved to my new job, but never sold a firearm and don't intend to start now.

 

[paintballdude902]

MC......wanna adopt me?

 

[MCgunner]

I got a daughter and son-in-law I'm trying to get rid of now.

 

[scythefwd]

mcgunner,
do you have any idea how easy it would be to make a joke about also having your setup handle that..... must resist.......

 

[Dr. Tad Hussein Winslow]

Yup, the rest of this year through Christmas is going to prove to be an "opportunity for acquisition", for those positioned to do so. Which is not me unfortunately; I'm broke.

 

[MMCSRET]

Now is the time to take advantage of the situation if you are so inclined. I'm sitting much the same way Mcgunner is. Took advantage and bought another house in Montana earlier this year. Nice thing about $4.00 gas is I refuse to put it in a lawn mower or trimmer, felt I had to make a cutback somewhere just to be able to fit in.

 

[Horsemany]

I've noticed a HUGE influx in old Winchester coming onto the market in the last month. Usually Gunbroker has no or 1 pre 64 Supergrades. In the last 2 weeks there has been a flood. There's at least a half dozen right now. And the number of pre 64 model 70's has doubled too. Same with the 94's. My local shop has seen it too. They told me they think everyone held on when they went under in 06' and now people are finally letting them go.

I have a theory that the market has shifted to "tacticool" guns as the older shooters give up shooting/die. The same thing happened with model T cars about 30 years ago. There just came a time when the value plummeted after most people who appreciated them were gone.

The fear of another AWB has certainly added an inflated value to the AR IMO.

 

[HGUNHNTR]

A recession would be great for picking up some additions to the family.

 

[MCgunner]

Of more importance to buying guns NOW is the looming possibility of a SCREAMING LIBERAL as president and a congress to back him up. That scares me far worse than recession.

 

[Rugerlvr]

It's definitely a buyer's market.

 

[Slamfire]

I have a theory that the market has shifted to "tacticool" guns as the older shooters give up shooting/die. The same thing happened with model T cars about 30 years ago. There just came a time when the value plummeted after most people who appreciated them were gone.

I think this is the trend. Let me add another factor: the wonderfully built new "old" blackpowder guns on the market. There is a market segment, and it is significant, that wants to shoot the pre 1900 stuff, a group that likes to shoot old mil surplus, the group who are interested in the high capacity service rifles, and the people who want sniper rifles. I don't see a lot of people interested in pre 64's. They are difficult to covert to detachable magazines, and if you bust a part, well depending on the part, you ain’t getting it back in order for less than a couple of “C” notes.

I think the pre 64 group are the ones who graduated high school around 1964, read Jack O'Connor when he was alive, and got anxious when production ended. They believed the media myth that somehow that rifle was perfect and perfectly built. They read these product promotions in the mass media of the day, and I can tell you, there are a lot more poorly built, poorly functioning pre 64’s then the shills ever let on. Now that generation is getting in their 70's, and the market has moved onto the interests of the next generation.

 

[bogie]

We're going to be hearing a LOT about "ohmigawd, the sky is falling" at least up through the election... Bad news gets votes for Democrats...

Remember too, that a we've got an every-increasing aging population. And a lot of the old folks own/owned guns... And often their kids know squat about them.

Teach your children. Or make arrangements to leave your boomsticks to someone who'll give a damn.

 

[Wheeler44]

I wonder how much of this is driven by folks that "stocked up" in anticipation of unrealistic appreciation. When the old guns didn't become worth a fortune and the price kinda plateaued their worth as an investment plummeted. Sorta like the housing bubble being driven by flippin' flippers.

 

[aka108]

I'm sellling off a good part of my collection. Not for the money but the kids don't give a rip about any of them or guns in general. They would wind up being sold if they were passed on or left to rust in a garage. I'm having my estate sale before I go away for good.

 

[Dr. Tad Hussein Winslow]

Horsemany and slamfire ==> +1 to that. I keep telling my buddy that the bubble is going to deflate on those some day, when most of the geezers die off who like and collect them so much, and lurk around gun shows, propping up the values (and I mean that in the most affectionate way, as I love some of these old geezers ). It's an artificially inflated value. It may take 20 or 30 more years, but eventually the value will be little more than newer ones. It will still be MORE than newer ones, but not by much.

I'm sellling off a good part of my collection. Not for the money but the kids don't give a rip about any of them or guns in general. They would wind up being sold if they were passed on or left to rust in a garage. I'm having my estate sale before I go away for good.

I like to hear that. I say good - put them in the hands of the younger generation "gun nuts" like me who will appreciate them, not kids or grandkids who will run as fast as possible to the pawn shop to sell them. Unless of course, there happens to be family members who the hobby has rubbed off on.

 

[Horsemany]

I'll hold on to all my old Winchesters, but I'm not looking for any more. I guess my focus has shifted just like a lot of others. There really is a lot of good stuff available for the same cost as a good Pre 64. I think they spiked about a year ago. There is a threshold where most people will not spend that much on a gun of any kind. I used to say that number was $1000. Now I'd say $2000. The thing I'm wondering is........Have the Garand's peaked? They seem to have. What's everyone else think?

To get back to the OP's question. Yes I think the economy IS the reason we're seeing the collectable guns come onto the market again.

 

[dmftoy1]

I don't know if there's a recession or if it's causing any changes . .but the local small FFL had 2 Garands, a 1903 Springfield and 2 M1 Carbines on the rack yesterday. (first time I've seen ANY of these in his shop and I've been watching his racks hard for about 3 years). They're on consignment and I think they're probably $150-$200 high. (Garands are $799 and they're lucky if they have 60% of the finish left)

FWIW.

 

[2RCO]

I don't know if it's the economy or just the lack of interest. The day of the Model 70 Sportsman type are kinda coming to an end. It's all AR's and Tacticool stuff right now. Most younger guys don't care that much for the old guns. Don't get me wrong I love my 94's and my Model 70's but one of the reasons production stopped on both guns was dropping sales due to a big old pile of used guns on the market along with loss of interest. The old Bolt unless it is a sniper rifle just doesn't do it for the younger guys. That being said I am under 30-barely and have 6 model 70's -I don't shoot any of them.

Also the Model 70 in the big calibers (300 H&H) takes a decent range or good piece of land to plink with. Also you basically need to be a land owner to hunt in alot of places especially the kind of larger game you bag with these guys.

As well the days of the African safari have dwindled into a fraction of days of old what with environmentalism and instabillity on basically the whole continent.

Back to the Economy--there definitely are people struck by the high fuel prices and I know a couple that have sold guns due to ammo costs as well.

 

[MCgunner]

Teach your children. Or make arrangements to leave your boomsticks to someone who'll give a damn.

My daughter ain't an avid shooter, shoots, but not her big thing. But, son-in-law is a hunter, shooter, and loves the older guns. He's got a Rossi 92 in .45 Colt I wish I could inherit. LOL! He's back from his second tour of Iraq, 20 something, and into hunting and bolt guns. He has a Winchester in 270 WSM and a Remington in .308. Both are nice hunting rifles. His only assault rifle is the M4 he turned in upon return from Iraq. He's in the guard.

I don't plan on checkin' out anytime soon, but it's nice to know grandpa's old Remington 722 will be in appreciative hands when the time comes. It's no pre-64 M70 I don't guess, but its worth a lot to me in memories when I see and touch it. I've tried to convey that. I really don't care much what he does with the rest of 'em, just pass that one down.

 

[redneck2]

How many guys have the extra income to shoot? Unless you're past the point of raising kids, how are you going to afford a gun, the ammo, and gas to go drive to shoot?

Also, it's getting harder and harder to find a place to shoot.

I'm at the point that I'm starting to sell off most of my stuff also. After a while, you figure out that's it's just sitting in the safe doing nothing. I'm going to keep the ones I shoot and get the cash out of the others.

 

[mio]

im 32 now i dont know about others my age but ive always looked at a pre 64 winchester as a collectors item. i own 1 that i got a deal on but it mostly just sits in the cabinet unless my gf wants to shoot it.

ive never shot a pre 64 model 70 and dont care if i do simply because i can pick up a rem 700 much cheaper and know that its a good rifle and more than accurate/dependable for my hunting needs.
only thing i can think of as to why there would be a glut of pre 64 winchesters on the market would be retirees on fixed incomes selling off thir extra (hopefully) hunting rifles to help out with elevated heating and food costs.

 

[RonE]

I don't think that there is just one answer. There are fewer hunters now than in years past. I believe hunting license sales are down 16% nationwide from some peak year in the past. To me this means that traditional hunting rifles (bolt guns mostly) are probably not in as great a demand.

Milsup rifles can be had cheaply, sometimes two to four or five to one for the price of a good medium-high quality traditional hunting rifle.

A generation or so ago, having one or two hunting rifles was a good thing, even often a luxury. Now, I have three hunting rifles which I don't use enough and four milsups.

I believe ammo is another factor, shooting .300 Win mag at the range can be a little spendy, shooting 7.62X54R is just as loud a bang but you get to hear it a lot more.

Another thing is that in the past, people did not play with thier hunting rifles the way we play with guns today. Three generations ago a deer rifle may or may not have had a scope. Today, an AR platform might have more money in assessories than the basic rifle cost.

And yes, the old Winchesters, Remingtons, Weatherbys and such were great rifles, but they are somewhat expensive to shoot and offer no where near the instant gratification of shooting 30 rounds in a 2" hole at 100 yards with a good AR 15.

Are these old rifles any good? Hell yes they are - but they seem to be too expensive for the fun you can have at the range with something else.

Look at Remington and Savage, their "tactical" rifles have a plastic stock and don't cost any more to produce than their hunting rifles but they cost more because that is the trend now.

There will always be buyers for old Winchesters but Winchester has faded into the sunset and how often are you going to shoot a pre 64 Winchester in .264 Winchester Magnum or even .220 Swift? As pointed out previously, the old buyers for such guns already have them and they are getting older along with the rifles.

 

[Aaryq]

Quote:
I'm sellling off a good part of my collection. Not for the money but the kids don't give a rip about any of them or guns in general. They would wind up being sold if they were passed on or left to rust in a garage. I'm having my estate sale before I go away for good.

I like to hear that. I say good - put them in the hands of the younger generation "gun nuts" like me who will appreciate them, not kids or grandkids who will run as fast as possible to the pawn shop to sell them. Unless of course, there happens to be family members who the hobby has rubbed off on.

Tou Che. There's a guy who I work with who's grandfather is still alive (but very old) and showed him the guns he was leaving me. Being the resident gun nut he came to me the first time. All he had was an approximate year, a caliber and a type (rifle, handgun or shotgun/rifle over under). I would normally not criticize someone about not knowing the make/model of a gun, but I tried to ask him about it, and all he could say was, "It's a .243 rifle (or .38 Handun or .410 or .22 "crossover") but then again after description of the guns, his very next question is asking the value of the gun. I told him approximately what I thought and also promised him a rough quote from the internet...he drools over the high prices and ignores the low prices. I don't remember the specifics of the, but they're not overly expensive guns and I really consider putting some $$$ aside to offer him once his grand dad dies just so he doesn't sell them off to some pawn shop or someone who doesn't give a rat's tail about his grandfather's guns (even if they're not at all what I'm looking for). It's just the sentimental side in me coming out.