Serious discussion on the likelihood of CCW preventing what occurred at VT

[lurkersince03]

So here's what I gather:

25,700-27,000 students comprising the student body. A decent sized faculty.

Now, basing what I learned from the Roanoke Times's exposure of the CCW list in VA, 133,000+ individuals of the state possess CHL's. I've heard that that equals roughly 1% (not sure of how appromixate that may be).

(got that from MD-Willington's post here)

So I discussed this with a friend of mine in AIM. No bias here, just examining the numbers and counting the odds. Let's pretend for a moment that VT allowed CCW on its campus.

How many of those students and faculty were there that day, from the time period from when the shooting started, to the end when he killed himself? Now, how many of those were within the vicinity of the shooter during all of this? Now, how many of those who were within the vicinity exposed to the shooter, or saw the shooter as he was moving? And conversely, how many heard what was going on around them?

Those numbers are probably significant. But something else to consider: how many of those who were around were old enough to possess CHL's? And then, how many of those who were old enough actually owned CHL's (or hypothetically speaking -- would own CHL's if VT didn't have their no-gun policy)?

Now let's talk about how many of those CHL holders would otherwise have had their weapons on them at the time. Yes, I realize some of you gung-ho keyboard commandos will profess to ALWAYS having your weapon on you 24/7, 365, blah blah blah. But some people don't. And how many of these people would have decided to leave it at home or whatever else to not have it on them?

Now with those approximate figures in mind, ask yourself how many of THOSE people would have the grit to take down this guy? This is not so much a strageties and tactics discussion as it is a stastics and odds-figuring discussion. But with that in mind, realize that some people would simply be cowards, while some would step out of safety and go into harms way to find out where the shooting's coming from and put a stop to it. Also realize that some guys with their CCW might have not had a chance. Some of them might've not even known what was going on before becoming a victim themselves. Also consider that those who would stand up to the shooter might not have enough skill to take him down and end up being a victim like the rest, gun drawn and all.

My final numbers end up being around 0 to 3 people who would otherwise have CCW's on them. From there, I figure 0 to 2 individuals would have otherwise put a stop to it -- and I'm being very generous when I round up my stastical-odds to 2 max (I figured 1.5 max, but it doesn't make sense when discussing people). Still leaves a possibility of VT allowing CCW to not really have made a difference, but then again, still leaves that small possibility of it indeed making a difference. This excludes individuals who carry/carried illegally and chose not to do anything or were simply not around. Profound topic, I know.

I realize it only takes one to have put a stop to it. I also realize that VT did not allow ANY possibility whatsoever by barring CCW on its campus. And this is NOT a political discussion. Merely a discussion of numbers and what you guys think would have been the odds of someone putting a stop to it if VT allowed CCW.

 

[Daniel T]

The theoretical mathematical probability of someone having had a CCW and being in a position to do something about this tragedy is very, very small.

However, a small number is infinitely larger than zero. That's really all it boils down to.

 

[lurkersince03]

I already touched on that, but thanks anyway. An underlying, off-topic point is that the collegiate powers that be will analyze these same circumstances when discussing whether or not individuals should be allowed to have weapons on their facilities. They may feel that the infanticimal odds of a law abiding CHL holder are simply too small to allow weapons on their campus, concealed or otherwise.

Also, Glenn Beck (or his stand-in) on CNN touched on this in their discussion today.

 

[Kaylee]

As said, a 1-3/25000 chance is better than a 0/25000 chance.

More important than CCW even is attitude though, as Lawdog says so perfectly.

-K

 

[MJZZZ]

My wife and I have already had this discussion, I believe that if 1 or 2 students would have been carrying. It might have been over before the scumbag killed himself. My wife on the other hand doesn't think students should carry at school, and I see her point too. If one thing is certain in the world we live in, the police are there after the fact and basically write reports and go after the criminals. I believe that a truly aware person is responsible for their own protection. The point is now moot, as all law abiding citizens there were not armed and left the students vulnerable to this mentally ill criminal. The media frenzy started when at first it was reported there was an automatic weapon, then the suspect had a bullet proof vest and was wearing ammo belts. The reported facts will change over and over. The local police and politicians are in full damage control, and calling for stricter gun laws. When in doubt, blame the guns. No better yet, blame the criminal who shot these kids. None of my guns have ever shot anyone, and they will only in defense of my family. This is truly a sad day, when our children cannot go to school and feel safe. Mike

 

[Zen21Tao]

This afternoon I heard on a local talk news radio show that it was only 2 years ago that the gun ban on Virginia Tech campus was passed. And, that last year a bill was proposed that would allow CCW on campus again. However, a spokeman for VT said that he was glad this bill had been (pardon the pun) shot down becasue he wanted people to know they could "feel safe" on campus.

The host of the radio show said this is the problem with far left liberals, too much of their agenda is based on feelings rather than facts. They would rather people "feel safer" when the simple fact is that they are actually less safe.

 

[VegasEgo]

I personally think that if someone is going to carry they should have to prove to the campus that they can own a gun and protect themselves without putting anyone else in harms way. If one student in one of the classrooms had a gun it would of been over. To late? possible. But it would of at least stop as many killings. Like I said first they are going to blame guns, than media i.e. video games, movies, tv, and internet. Than after all that once they relize that he was human and theyll blame it on emotions.

 

[Zen21Tao]

The theoretical mathematical probability of someone having had a CCW and being in a position to do something about this tragedy is very, very small.

However, a small number is infinitely larger than zero. That's really all it boils down to.

There is also another big difference.

Given the situation where people are allowed to CCW (if they meet state licensing standards), chose to do so, and were in the right place at the right time, the small number would be based solely on chance. However, the "zero" legal guns on campus is a mandated number. In this case people are being deprived of the right to chose to defend themselves or not.

I am getting pretty fed up with others mandating helplessness and then crying for more gun control when their mandate helps facilitate a massacre.

 

[Justin]

I don't think that anyone has actually stated that if CCW's were allowed on campus that this tragedy would have been averted.

But it doesn't change the fact that there would have been at least a slim chance of this happening.

Note that the shootings in Grundy, Virginia and Pearl, Mississippi were stopped by people with guns.

 

[MJZZZ]

I believe one of the real problems is that the anti's don't want to bring CCW into the mix. They would have to think too hard about everything they are against, which is real 2nd amendment freedom. It's easier to ban the guns and make every law abiding person a sheep. Mike

 

[xsquidgator]

I take a little bit of issue with your assumptions. A CCWer wouldn't have to kill the bad guy to save lives, he'd just have to disrupt the bad guy's plans.

It wouldn't take a CCWer with enough skill to shoot the bad guy down, for things to turn out better than they did. Even if you shoot at the guy and you miss, what are the chances after that of the BG being able to stroll around and execute people? I know I'm making an assumption as to what happened, but I can't think of any way for 31 people to have been killed other than point blank execution style slayings. A single shot even near the guy could disrupt things enough for people to rush him, or to make him run off somewhere, at least rattle him up. I have to think that if someone came into a classroom and I shot back at him (b/c I always sat in the back) that maybe that would chase him out and at least save most of the people in the room. And what if you were able to wing him at least? That changes things for the better. The impression I got of what's been reported is that the bad guy went around killing until he got tired or whatever, and then killed himself.

 

[RioShooter]

don't think that anyone has actually stated that if CCW's were allowed on campus that this tragedy would have been averted.

Yes they have. On Fox, both John Gibson and "The Judge" (Napolitano) stated that an individual with a CCW could have made a difference. They also mentioned that Virginia allows CCW, but that VT has banned them.

 

[savetheclaypigeons]

some sort of extra permit to be able to carry on universities run by the university police would satisfy me even if it were to be run financially by the permit holder. Shouldn't have to, but better than nothing

 

[BsChoy]

I am a University Police Officer in New York and our State law says no one outside of law enforcement can carry a gun on SUNY (State University of New York) grounds unless given express written permission by the President of that institution. Or presidents are essentially like our Mayors if we were a small town. It is a misdemeanor in the least to be caught in possession of a firearm on a SUNY campus. Oh and please don't call me a security guard! I have respect for most security guards but, I am a fully empowered and properly trained police officer. On my University we already carry Ar-15's, tazers, and G22's. It's todays happenings that are the reason I carry a gun everywhere I go. You never know.

 

[PWK]

The odds of a CCW stopping such an incidence may be small but if the bad guy knows campus A allows CHL students and teachers and campus B doesn't, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out where the "safest" place is to go shootin' up the place. The reason these nutjobs pick schools to go shoot things up is because they know other places, although the odds are small, may have a CCW holder about, like the fellow out in SLC found out. The arguements for allowing CCW on schools, parking lots, places of business and just about anywhre are the same. Unless we are going to make every other person a LEO there is simply no way any government entity can prevent such crimes.

 

[ec-10]

CCW would probably not have completely stopped this incident but I bet it would have slowed it down.

I wonder how far the gunman would have gone if certain students were allowed to do something else that is legal in VA. Open carry.

 

[shark40sw]

The chance of anyone other than a sworn peace officer/ policeman ever having the ability to CCW on any campus grounds is about the same as anyone winning the lottery twice. In a row.
Granted the horrer show that is being shown on TV today may be an arguement for it. But spend an average Saterday night around any major campus and I'll garantee you'll find nightly reasons for there not to be. As an ex- student and someone who has worked many a function (concert, pub, and numerous rally's for different causes) on campus since then. Places of higher learning my be the title but place of common sense isn't usally the norm. There is a reason for age limits on certain activities.

 

[thedpp]

How about allowing teachers to carry...would seem reasonable and could have saved those people.

 

[Lupinus]

In no way shape or form do I think CCW would have prevented this.

What I am firmly convinced of however is that if one of the students in the area of the shooting had been carrying the situation would have been stopped long before the body count was so high. Shoots still would have been fired, some people might even have been killed. But if people actually there had been armed to defend themselves I have no doubt in my mind the body count would be much, much lower.

 

[texas_rebel_1980]

i for one would like to see concealed carry allowed on campus. like already stated a small chance is better than no chance. i know i would carry if allowed. i may never be a hero(never even want the chance) but knowing i have a small oppurtunity to defend myself or others, would be better than lying on the ground playing dead, hoping i am not next. i cannot even begin to imagine the horror those people experienced while that psychopath ran around killing their friends and classmates. maybe it could have been stopped by a single CCW holder, maybe not, but since the libbers have it their way, we shall never know.

 

[waterhouse]

While part of the discussion may focus on percentages, and what small part of the student/faculty body may or may not have been carrying, I think the major issue is whether criminals think about attacking in "gun free" zones.

It doesn't matter if only 1% carry, or .0005% carry, or 10% carry, if it is publicly announced that 0% will be allowed to carry in a certain place.

It could be argued that people who do the sort of thing that was done today are monsters who do not think about their actions and do not consider the gun free zone when they go off to do their evil. If they do consider it, though, then it does not matter how many people would have actually been carrying, because the bad guy wouldn't know either, and the mere thought that there might be resistance could be enough to stop it.

Purely hypothetical of course, but my point is that carrying a gun might not have been necessary to stop this tragedy . . . the mere possibility that the murdered would run into armed resistance might have been enough to get him to think twice.

 

[husker67]

This really bothers me...

I think that the world is, and always has been, a place where survival is iffy.
Random acts of crazy people are nearly impossible to predict or defend against, diseases occur, accidents happen, things we never thought could happen to us, do happen...we are not completely safe no matter what we may do to prepare, fortify, or plan against disaster. I'm not arguing that we should not prepare or defend, just that preparations are never perfect, and poop will occur.

It is always better to have a plan, to be alert, and is the reason I have a concealed carry permit. Would I have had a pistol in my backpack knowing that if it was discovered I would be expelled from the university? Not likely.
Would I have felt perfectly safe going to class? Very likely.

It seems to me that a determined homicidal nut will almost certainly get off the first shots, how could we know what is in his mind before he does the unthinkable? And, I wish that someone, somehow, had been close enough to end it quickly and eliminate the threat. But I also know that this would have been the purest luck. My condolences and best wishes to the staff, students, and parents of the students of Virginia Tech.

 

[TCB in TN]

As a teacher in an Elementary school one of my greatest fears is a situation like this in which I am incapable of protecting my students or myself. We had a surprise lockdown a few weeks ago and the PD sent a guy around to beat on and kick the doors and make things seem pretty real. We had NO notice and when I heard the yelling down the hall, all I could do was lock my door, and get what few "weapons" I had in place to be of use. (My broom and a metal rod from one of my podiums). When the guy came to my door he shook the door, and even had a little kid crying begging me to let him in. Our instructions are to NEVER open the door after it is locked, even when the Principal comes over the PA to announce the "ALL CLEAR" we are to leave the door locked. We are NOT all clear until either the Principal or the PD come around to unlock the doors. Really bothers me to be "unarmed", and basiclly in a position where I cannot really protect my kids.

 

[Southern Gobbler]

As a Virginia Tech student and a concealed permit holder I thought I would weigh-in on this. First of all the point about age is very valid. Your average college student doesn't turn 21 until their junior year which cuts down the number of students even eligible for their CCW by about half. On the other hand I can tell you that there are quite a few gunnies here at VT. There is a pretty strong shooting culture and I know a lot of students and faculty who love to shoot. I've also know several who have their permits as well. As for how many would actually carry if they were allowed, I don't know. But overall, if allowed, I am sure there would be several permit holders on campus. Because the shootings were generally confined to one building and a few classrooms the likely of a permit holder being close enough to respond or involved would probably be very slim. Still it makes me furious that we are not allowed the means to defend ourselves.

As for me personally I don't have any classes on Monday's and was not on campus so weather I carried or not wouldn't have mattered. To be perfectly honest even if I was allowed to carry on campus I probably would not. Until today I had always viewed Blacksburg as a "safe" town. It's the kind of place where you don't have to lock your doors (but I always do). Nobody ever expected anything like this to happen in a sleepy little south west Virginia town. I usually only carried when visiting other larger "dangerous" cities where I felt crime was more of a problem. Do not fall for this myth like I did! Evil is everywhere can find you at anywhere at anytime. I sure many others like me don't carry because "stuff like that would never happen here". We'll folks it happened her and it sucks. Be prepared, always. I know from today on I don't plan on leaving my home unarmed. Never again.

 

[tnieto2004]

Yes, I realize some of you gung-ho keyboard commandos

I got a good laugh out of that one ..