lurkersince03
Member
- Joined
- Jun 12, 2006
- Messages
- 176
So here's what I gather:
25,700-27,000 students comprising the student body. A decent sized faculty.
Now, basing what I learned from the Roanoke Times's exposure of the CCW list in VA, 133,000+ individuals of the state possess CHL's. I've heard that that equals roughly 1% (not sure of how appromixate that may be).
(got that from MD-Willington's post here)
So I discussed this with a friend of mine in AIM. No bias here, just examining the numbers and counting the odds. Let's pretend for a moment that VT allowed CCW on its campus.
How many of those students and faculty were there that day, from the time period from when the shooting started, to the end when he killed himself? Now, how many of those were within the vicinity of the shooter during all of this? Now, how many of those who were within the vicinity exposed to the shooter, or saw the shooter as he was moving? And conversely, how many heard what was going on around them?
Those numbers are probably significant. But something else to consider: how many of those who were around were old enough to possess CHL's? And then, how many of those who were old enough actually owned CHL's (or hypothetically speaking -- would own CHL's if VT didn't have their no-gun policy)?
Now let's talk about how many of those CHL holders would otherwise have had their weapons on them at the time. Yes, I realize some of you gung-ho keyboard commandos will profess to ALWAYS having your weapon on you 24/7, 365, blah blah blah. But some people don't. And how many of these people would have decided to leave it at home or whatever else to not have it on them?
Now with those approximate figures in mind, ask yourself how many of THOSE people would have the grit to take down this guy? This is not so much a strageties and tactics discussion as it is a stastics and odds-figuring discussion. But with that in mind, realize that some people would simply be cowards, while some would step out of safety and go into harms way to find out where the shooting's coming from and put a stop to it. Also realize that some guys with their CCW might have not had a chance. Some of them might've not even known what was going on before becoming a victim themselves. Also consider that those who would stand up to the shooter might not have enough skill to take him down and end up being a victim like the rest, gun drawn and all.
My final numbers end up being around 0 to 3 people who would otherwise have CCW's on them. From there, I figure 0 to 2 individuals would have otherwise put a stop to it -- and I'm being very generous when I round up my stastical-odds to 2 max (I figured 1.5 max, but it doesn't make sense when discussing people). Still leaves a possibility of VT allowing CCW to not really have made a difference, but then again, still leaves that small possibility of it indeed making a difference. This excludes individuals who carry/carried illegally and chose not to do anything or were simply not around. Profound topic, I know.
I realize it only takes one to have put a stop to it. I also realize that VT did not allow ANY possibility whatsoever by barring CCW on its campus. And this is NOT a political discussion. Merely a discussion of numbers and what you guys think would have been the odds of someone putting a stop to it if VT allowed CCW.
25,700-27,000 students comprising the student body. A decent sized faculty.
Now, basing what I learned from the Roanoke Times's exposure of the CCW list in VA, 133,000+ individuals of the state possess CHL's. I've heard that that equals roughly 1% (not sure of how appromixate that may be).
(got that from MD-Willington's post here)
So I discussed this with a friend of mine in AIM. No bias here, just examining the numbers and counting the odds. Let's pretend for a moment that VT allowed CCW on its campus.
How many of those students and faculty were there that day, from the time period from when the shooting started, to the end when he killed himself? Now, how many of those were within the vicinity of the shooter during all of this? Now, how many of those who were within the vicinity exposed to the shooter, or saw the shooter as he was moving? And conversely, how many heard what was going on around them?
Those numbers are probably significant. But something else to consider: how many of those who were around were old enough to possess CHL's? And then, how many of those who were old enough actually owned CHL's (or hypothetically speaking -- would own CHL's if VT didn't have their no-gun policy)?
Now let's talk about how many of those CHL holders would otherwise have had their weapons on them at the time. Yes, I realize some of you gung-ho keyboard commandos will profess to ALWAYS having your weapon on you 24/7, 365, blah blah blah. But some people don't. And how many of these people would have decided to leave it at home or whatever else to not have it on them?
Now with those approximate figures in mind, ask yourself how many of THOSE people would have the grit to take down this guy? This is not so much a strageties and tactics discussion as it is a stastics and odds-figuring discussion. But with that in mind, realize that some people would simply be cowards, while some would step out of safety and go into harms way to find out where the shooting's coming from and put a stop to it. Also realize that some guys with their CCW might have not had a chance. Some of them might've not even known what was going on before becoming a victim themselves. Also consider that those who would stand up to the shooter might not have enough skill to take him down and end up being a victim like the rest, gun drawn and all.
My final numbers end up being around 0 to 3 people who would otherwise have CCW's on them. From there, I figure 0 to 2 individuals would have otherwise put a stop to it -- and I'm being very generous when I round up my stastical-odds to 2 max (I figured 1.5 max, but it doesn't make sense when discussing people). Still leaves a possibility of VT allowing CCW to not really have made a difference, but then again, still leaves that small possibility of it indeed making a difference. This excludes individuals who carry/carried illegally and chose not to do anything or were simply not around. Profound topic, I know.
I realize it only takes one to have put a stop to it. I also realize that VT did not allow ANY possibility whatsoever by barring CCW on its campus. And this is NOT a political discussion. Merely a discussion of numbers and what you guys think would have been the odds of someone putting a stop to it if VT allowed CCW.