Serious discussion on the likelihood of CCW preventing what occurred at VT

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Did you know that just last year CCW on college campuses was shot down? The first article below has a quote from a Virginia Tech spokesman praising the defeat and saying that people on campus will now feel safe.

After you read that, read the eerily prescient essay that follows. It was written by a VT student with a concealed carry permit after an incident last year prompted the evacuation of the campus.

Then look at the article that describes how VT (who lobbied heavily against the CCW bill that was killed) handled the security. They let the gunman roam the campus for over 2 hours after the initial shooting. During that time they didn't notify anyone nor evacuate the campus.

http://www.roanoke.com/politics/wb/50658
Gun bill gets shot down by panel
HB 1572, which would have allowed handguns on college campuses, died in subcommittee.
By Greg Esposito

A bill that would have given college students and employees the right to carry handguns on campus died with nary a shot being fired in the General Assembly.

House Bill 1572 didn't get through the House Committee on Militia, Police and Public Safety. It died Monday in the subcommittee stage, the first of several hurdles bills must overcome before becoming laws.

The bill was proposed by Del. Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah County, on behalf of the Virginia Citizens Defense League. Gilbert was unavailable Monday and spokesman Gary Frink would not comment on the bill's defeat other than to say the issue was dead for this General Assembly session.

Virginia Tech spokesman Larry Hincker was happy to hear the bill was defeated. "I'm sure the university community is appreciative of the General Assembly's actions because this will help parents, students, faculty and visitors feel safe on our campus."

...

In June, Tech's governing board approved a violence prevention policy reiterating its ban on students or employees carrying guns and prohibiting visitors from bringing them into campus facilities.​

http://www.roanoke.com/editorials/commentary/wb/80510
Unarmed and vulnerable

Bradford B. Wiles (Wiles, of New Castle, is a graduate student at Virginia Tech.)

On Aug. 21 at about 9:20 a.m., my graduate-level class was evacuated from the Squires Student Center. We were interrupted in class and not informed of anything other than the following words: "You need to get out of the building."

Upon exiting the classroom, we were met at the doors leading outside by two armor-clad policemen with fully automatic weapons, plus their side arms. Once outside, there were several more officers with either fully automatic rifles and pump shotguns, and policemen running down the street, pistols drawn.

It was at this time that I realized that I had no viable means of protecting myself.

Please realize that I am licensed to carry a concealed handgun in the commonwealth of Virginia, and do so on a regular basis. However, because I am a Virginia Tech student, I am prohibited from carrying at school because of Virginia Tech's student policy, which makes possession of a handgun an expellable offense, but not a prosecutable crime.

I had entrusted my safety, and the safety of others to the police. In light of this, there are a few things I wish to point out.

First, I never want to have my safety fully in the hands of anyone else, including the police.

Second, I considered bringing my gun with me to campus, but did not due to the obvious risk of losing my graduate career, which is ridiculous because had I been shot and killed, there would have been no graduate career for me anyway.

Third, and most important, I am trained and able to carry a concealed handgun almost anywhere in Virginia and other states that have reciprocity with Virginia, but cannot carry where I spend more time than anywhere else because, somehow, I become a threat to others when I cross from the town of Blacksburg onto Virginia Tech's campus.

Of all of the emotions and thoughts that were running through my head that morning, the most overwhelming one was of helplessness.

That feeling of helplessness has been difficult to reconcile because I knew I would have been safer with a proper means to defend myself.

I would also like to point out that when I mentioned to a professor that I would feel safer with my gun, this is what she said to me, "I would feel safer if you had your gun."

The policy that forbids students who are legally licensed to carry in Virginia needs to be changed.

I am qualified and capable of carrying a concealed handgun and urge you to work with me to allow my most basic right of self-defense, and eliminate my entrusting my safety and the safety of my classmates to the government.

This incident makes it clear that it is time that Virginia Tech and the commonwealth of Virginia let me take responsibility for my safety.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18142745/
Questions raised about Virginia Tech security
Reporters, students, professors discuss if reaction could have been better


BLACKSBURG, Va. - On a university campus of 2,600 acres, with more than 26,000 students, ironclad security is not a practical goal. Even so, tough questions swiftly surfaced as to how effectively Virginia Tech authorities responded to Monday's horrific massacre.

Why were campus police so sure the threat was contained in one dormitory, when most of the killings occurred two hours later in a classroom building?

Why were they interviewing a “person of interest” off campus in regard to the first shootings at the very time the classroom killings were unfolding?

Why was there a lag of more than two hours after the first shootings before an alarm was e-mailed campuswide — around the time another, more deadly burst of carnage occurred? And more generally, some security experts wondered, was the school's crisis planning and emergency communications system up to the task?

Clearly, something went terribly wrong.

Bombarded with security questions at a news conference, Virginia Tech President Charles Steger said authorities believed the shooting at the West Ambler Johnston dorm, first reported about 7:15 a.m., was a domestic dispute and mistakenly thought the gunman had fled the campus.

"We had no reason to suspect any other incident was going to occur," he said.

...

Virginia Tech Police Chief Wendell Flinchum said there no surveillance cameras in place that recorded the gunman entering Norris Hall, the classroom building where 31 people were killed. Among the dead was the gunman, who killed himself before police could break through a chained door and reach the second-floor room where the massacre occurred.

Some students were upset that the gunman was able to strike a second time, saying the first notification they got of the shootings came in an e-mail at 9:26 a.m. The e-mail mentioned a "shooting incident" at West Ambler Johnston, said police were investigating, and asked students to be cautious and contact police about anything suspicious.​

VT, in effect, stood up last year and said that they would be responsible for the security of their students. Now, a year later they allowed a gunman to roam freely on their campus for OVER TWO HOURS after the first shooting. During that time, they didn't try to evacuate the campus nor did they effectively notify the students on campus.

This is a classic example of what happens when people are denied the right of self-defense and their safety is put in the hands of others.
 
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It is not really important to calculate the odds of a CCW being in the right place at the right time to stop the shooter.

The point of concealed carry is that the BGs never know when it is safe to do their evil. When the government guarantees that it is safe, the very worst is inevitable.
 
Small percentage of students eligible for CCW, correct. I don't know the percentage of "non-traditional" students is at VT, so no comment there.

Any professors there, however, should all be of legal age for CCW. This is a small percentage, but significantly greater than zero.

jm
 
The point of concealed carry is that the BGs never know when it is safe to do their evil.

I doubt he would have cared if students where allowed to CCW. He had no intention of ever coming out of this alive. He was bent on killing as many people as possible before taking his own life or being shot dead.
 
To tired to read all responses. My short answer is this.
Using your first post numbers/idea.
If we go from numbers that "odds" of one of the students/other person comming on campus (today) and shooting 40+ people and killing over 30 is dang near ZERO.

BUT IT HAPPENED
Heck the chance that a Uniformed Officer will need to fire his weapon (today) on duty is also nearly zero. So knowing that why don't they leave them at station?
I do admit I (fall) for that trap myself. "I'm just going to town and its warm today I will leave gun in truck" :( :( I figure I am never unarmed (there were weapons long before guns and even knives)
I worked "Campus Security at TWO Universities during my time there. We had a fair number of students who had firearms on campus. (Illegal as heck) but we didn't do anything as long as they kept quiet. Heck even when one gent did some target practice at 2am in Center for the Arts using the (bales) of recycled paper with a .25 auto. I took the gun home over weekend but gave it back when he promised to never fire it (or his .38) on campus again.
 
I don't understand why some of this young adults didn't make a stand and just rush him and take him down then beat the living crap out of him.
 
I think people are conditioned to passivity and being taken care of, hence they did not assume primary responsibility for their own safety. Plus sometimes it takes a little time to grasp what is happening and what is the best course of action.

So that is probably part of the reason they did not rush the gunman. Fear causes many people to freeze.
 
lurkersince03-

i may have missed it, but how are you shaking out the numbers for who carries with what frequency? If information exists (maybe you deduced from polls here?) how many people carry with what frequency, i'd be interested in it.

also, a fact that i haven't seen brought up (maybe i missed it)

you don't have to be a resident of a state to go to school there, so the application of that states percentage of ccw's is irrelevant, cause they aren't all virginians, and also unless that info contains non-resident permit info it really isn't accurate.

these differences may be insignificant, but if your cranking out 0-2 people as an end result, it could be the difference between 0 and maybe 4. thats pretty significant in a game of numbers that small.

now im not gonna sit here and scream any percent is better than zero, i think it is, but it won't serve to be a crux of an arguement. I just think the method is a bit flawed for discerning the info.

also everyone talks about a ccw, why not a resident who hunts? runs back to his or her respective dorm and grabs their deer rifle, or bird gun? general long gun ownership is probably greater, and i would bet, nearly impossible to track.

i just think we're trying to test too many variables. a lot of if statements, like if there was a ccw, and if they had teh right mindset, if they carried that day, yada yada. all valid points, but with each if we wander further from the reality of the situation.

if i am a male 18-34, and if i live alone, and if i have a history of mental illness, i could be the next zodiac, but thats a big leap from reality (ps i have no mental illness history, please don't anyone think im describing myself)

i think your point is valid, just not the method.

not intending to flame

mike
 
the shooter was looking to kill anyone including himself. As a CCW holder I would have come to anybody's assistance while getting as many to safety as possible but I wouldn't have gone to get him.

I'm not a CCW holder to be a hero I CCW for my safety of myself and those around me.
 
POSSIBLE Explanation

If you've ever heard the report of a pistol at close proximity indoors you'd understand CLEARLY why most people "froze". The word "loud" doesn't even begin to give the phenomena any justice.

After the pain and shock are overcome you'll likely seek cover immediately, thus, the high number of persons shot.

The lull in the shooting for a reload wouldn't offer much time as your hands will be covering your ears and your eyes may be closed - especially if you're not accustomed to sharp, loud noises. By the time you realized the lull in the shooting your head would raise just in time to catch his eye - and his next shot...

And just as gego has stated many persons today are conditioned to behave in a "cowardly" manner - and many persons ARE cowards.

Nothing new here, really. And it's truly unfortunate. :(
 
What is the age for CCW in VA? I bet most everyone other than the prof in the classroom was under 21.
 
I wonder how many would have jumped from a 4th story window to try and save themselves rather than try to protect themselves and others if they were armed?
If guns were not so demonized as portrayed far to often in far to many places, far more would carry, and the citizenry of this country would be far safer in far more places.
 
True, eliphalet, but so few carry and so few are truly prepared that it may or may not have been effective in this case (and many others for that matter). But in THEORY I tend to agree. I see many with CPLs who are woefully inadequate in basic handling skills, basic knowledge and basic shooting, much less drawing & shooting. They also have NO "fight drive". It's more of a status thing in many cases.

This would be my anecdotal experience from spending many hours working in a gunstore and assisting in many of the classes taught in same. The vast majority of the CPL holders don't possess the skills necessary to effectively fight with a sidearm. And the VAST majority have NO desire to do so. :barf:
 
I guessimated 20

Thought I'd provide factors I considered while guessing
the number of good guys with guns on campus, if that
was allowed.

The news stated there were about 9000 people on campus.

There are a little less than 5 million people in Virginia between
21 and 65. So, the 133k permit holders comprise 2.7% of the
population that could have a permit.

If the campus population has permits at the same rate
as the state, 240 of the 9000 people would have permits.

But, younger people don't apply as often and perhaps
3/4 of the undergraduates are too young to get a permit.

A guess: 1/2 as likely to apply due to being less than
40 years old and another 1/3 reduction from age restrictions.
(One fourth of the undergraduates would be at least 21 years old.
So, with faculty and grad students, I upped it to a third are old
enough to apply.)

The percentage with permits that carry may be higher
than average due to the killer on VA Tech's campus
last fall. How about 1/2 with permits regularly carry.

These numbers lead to 20 of the 9000 would have had
a tool to stop the killer.

This guess is no better than any other given the fact that
actual data does not exist since the university disallows
good guys to defend themselves and others.
 
Likelhood of CCW preventing what occurred at VT ..

Likely.

The fact they did not have the option is nearly as bad as the act itself.

This sicko was aided and abetted by the law and those who passed it.

It is high time to destroy these sick laws once and for all.
 
There are only a few combinations of restrictions to access of firearms on a 2300-acre campus:

Steps that Criminalize Behavior:
  • A campus policy advertising a weapons-free zone, including signs posted -- zero likelihood of stopping someone without a conscience.
  • One state law against presence, possession, use, including signs posted -- zero likelihood of stopping someone without a conscience.
  • Two state laws against presence, possession, use, including signs posted -- zero likelihood of stopping someone without a conscience.
  • Three state laws against presence, possession, use, including signs posted -- zero likelihood of stopping someone without a conscience.
  • Any number of state laws requiring that campuses be a weapons-free zone -- zero likelihood of stopping someone without a conscience.
  • Any number of federal laws requiring that campuses be a weapons-free zone -- zero likelihood of stopping someone without a conscience.

Steps that Add "Mines" (Armed Personnel) to the Minefield (Campus):
  • Cameras at key points of intersection -- little likelihood of identifying someone with concealed weapons.
  • Weapons detectors at key points of entry/egress -- zero likelihood of detecting someone who chooses a different path.
  • Shot-detection system throughout the campus, to identify source of shooting -- in its infancy, can only narrow down location but cannot stop anything.
  • Physical redesign of campus to have one controlled point of entry and one controlled point of egress -- promising, but zero likelihood of happening outside of prison walls.
  • Armed security guards at key points of entry/egress -- zero likelihood of detecting someone who chooses a different path; ineffective with other than limited and secured points of entry/egress.
  • Armed security guards walking the campus -- puts more firepower across the campus. But 2300 acres is a lot of ground to cover, and university budgets will not allow more than a handful of guards to exist. A very light peppering of "mines" in the minefield.
  • Armed concealed-carry citizens walking the campus -- puts much more firepower across the campus, though many (most?) will be untrained/unskilled. Begins to populate the minefield full of "mines," from the perspective of a murderous shooter.
  • Armed concealed-carry citizens walking the campus, forced to carry until 100% of all students, faculty, staff and visitors are carrying -- not bloody likely, but this is a 100% populated minefield, from the perspective of a murderous shooter.

There are few practical steps that can actually be taken in a free, liberal society to secure borders that have no walls. On a 2300-acre campus such as Virginia Tech, it is simply impossible to secure all avenues of entry or egress. Even relatively closed-in campuses such as VMI or many areas on the Naval Academy campus simply cannot easily have all access points controlled. On the average campus? Impossible.

IMO, the only practical approach is this: to add "mines" to the minefield. In the highly-motivated field of warfare, this is the one thing that slows down infantry. This is the one thing that cannot be easily guarded against. Taken to the logical extreme, a field of actual mines set admist an ambush with crossing lanes of fire constitutes one of the most-deadly environments for a foot soldier.

That is the logic behind the "mines" comments above. The only practical way to increase the odds that a murderous shooter finds a "mine" (someone capable of resisting) is to increase the numbers of people capable of resisting actually present on-campus. Nothing short of this will have anywhere near the same effect. And when the chips are down, nothing else approaches the speed of potential for shutting down a murderous rampage in progress.

The same is true of any open-air, public place where mere laws, regulations, signs and taboo is supposed to protect us. I say: only "mines" will protect us. The more, the better. And legal concealed-carry of firearms is the least-expensive, most-practical way to achieve this. There isn't anything that approaches the effectiveness or efficiency of having more armed people on the ground ... not on a field of war, not on a public street, not at a university campus.

So. In the end, what would this mean for actual feet on the street, actual numbers of concealed-carry people actually carrying that day? Hell, who's to say? I'd be willing to bet that on a campus of 25000, with a good 8000 students on-campus at exactly that moment, there would be no more than 1-2% carrying at any given time. That equates to ~100 people on-campus that could have been armed and able to affect any change in the outcome. Even with that many carriers on-campus at that time, 2300 acres is a lot of ground to cover. Even 100 people amongst 8000 would still mean that folks would likely need to come running in order to even see the shooting, let alone take any proactive steps to stop it. But, campus security and police, themselves, took hours to respond from the first shooting having occurred. Any response time from ~100 CHL carriers on-campus could not hardly be worse.
 
What WERE the odds that a shooter would enter the campus and commit mass murder/suicide there?

What 'plan B' did the people and the college have 'just in case'.

If the odds of such an event happening don't justify a pro-active 'plan B' then surely the college didn't need to ban CCW on campus. If that makes sense?

In Virginia I presume that CCW permit holders are vetted and trained. Is that a safe assumption? If that is the case surely the barest chance that a trained and law abiding citizen carrying a firearm might help reduce loss of life should an insane/criminally violent armed citizen entered campus would be better than no chance at all?

Why do States issue CCW permits? Is it not to reduce loss of life?
 
http://www.11alive.com/news/article_news.aspx?storyid=95512

The challenge of trying to protect people from violence often falls to state legislators. In Georgia, there are two gun bills designed with safety in mind that are still being debated.

Violence of the magnitude of Monday's shooting rampage in Virginia certainly adds to the debate of such an important issue.

There are two bills under the Gold Dome that have sort of been merged into one. One of them makes it easier to carry a gun in your car, one makes it easier to keep that gun in your car when you go to work.

Neither has much to do with what happened at Virginia Tech, but the violence still impacts the debate.

The shock from the shooting spree is barely 12 hours old and yet the calls to learn from it and work to protect against it are building.

If we're not asking the question, where did the gun come from? How did this person get access to it? Then we're missing a huge piece of the puzzle," said Alice Johnson of Georgians For Gun Safety.

Johnson said laws may not have been able to stop the shooter at Virginia Tech, but that controlling access to guns is an important issue for debate.

"We're going to have to reach some kind of balance between gun ownership, responsible bun ownership and gun rights and making our communities safe," Johnson said.

But others feel more guns could have possibly helped end the Virginia Tech shooting spree sooner. Rep. Tim Bearden is the sponsor of a bill that would make it easier for Georgians to carry guns in their cars.

"If a law-abiding citizen was there with a firearm, they may have stopped deaths that should not ever have occurred," Bearden said.

It is a debate that will continue long after the facts of this shooting are sorted out.

Even though this is the busiest time here at the state legislature, they did stop and observe a moment of silence in honor of the tragedy in Virginia.
 
Late to the discussion.

A statistical analysis of the probability of having an armed student at the point of the attack is an irrelevant discussion. What is relevant is the the mere possibility of opposition at the point of the attack will magnify the possibility the attack WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. Clearly the BG's go to extremes to make sure they will not be interrupted in their work.

The guy who shot up the Long Island train a few years back killing 8 or 9 passengers traveled from California (IIRC) to NY specifically because he knew there would be no opposition to his labors. The deterrent effect of CCH is far bigger than actual numbers.
 
Heres another question to throw into the mix. Even if there was a CCW present, would they have stepped up?

So many of the situational threads are of people saying "be a good witness". Special permission to carry on a campus? :barf: I've already ready proved my compentancy with my weapon to the state of Florida, paid my fines, submitted to the background check, and have gone for nacho's.

The bare fact remains, the more restrictions placed on peoples obligations to defend themselves the more victims we'll have.
 
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The Glen Beck show touched on the CCW subject briefly... but no other national news agencies has explored this as a possible solution.

FOX News did, and rather strongly too. Judge Napolitano even cited the fact that VT decided not to allow firearms on campus as potential grounds for a lawsuit.

And a lawsuit is likely in this case. If the university failed to take reasonable action to inform and safeguard students hours after the first murders occurred, then any waivers of liability in favor of the university could be voided as against public policy.
 
One of the other sad parts of this story is the mouthpieces from the school. It seems that every time one of the faculty starts to speak about the incident, one part of what they say is heartfelt, or appears to be anyhow, while the other side of their mouth seems to be doing as much CYA as possible about how the school did everything prudent for the situation.
I just don't know about any of that. What I do know is that you can't account for every kook out there no matter what. All government can acutally do is to insure that we, as American citizens, maintain the ability to protect ourselves.
Doc
 
No offense to the origional poster but the numbers you post just don't matter because they miss the real point about being allowed to have your CCW with you.

The real point isn't that somebody would have played hero and gone out, hunted down the bad guy, and ended the situation and saved the day. No somebody -might- have done just that, or people might have just bunkered down to ride the situation out. That doesn't matter. The real point is that somebody, somewhere on that campus, might have had a choice other than just being shot down.

Now the real question is this... Having had this event take place are the citizens going to regain their right to defend themselves or are we just going to have more of the same with various "nanny" agencies promising more protection. (Which by the way worked so well in the green zone recently).
 
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