Gun mfg's see a perfect storm coming. I read the other day that the FBI is starting to get a lot of data from state health care professionals regarding treatment of disorders. ... Pretty soon a denial will be common and you will get to wait while the state processes all of the information they have about you. ..
I sure as heck wouldn't want to be a gun dealer now. ... No body wants to go back 10 days later to pick up a gun they should have when they decided to buy it.
Having lived in CA which has had 10 day waits forever, and has always been more active about state level background checks and health info, I don't buy that.
The reality is that about 1% of background checks result in a denial, and increasing the number of mental health records used in checks probably won't change that. Why not? Because being involuntary committed to a mental hospital is not something most people forget. Even in California where a junior police officer bringing you in for a 5150 evaluation triggers a 5-year infringement on your RKBA, there is enough process and procedure involved that you will know if it has happened to you. To trigger the federaplaystriction requires civil commitment which means a judge is involved. You will know if it has happened to you.
As for 10 day waits, leave California.
And the market is saturated as was stated above. Too many guns, not enough buyers.
That isn't what I see it the stores. I see not enough guns.
I have said this before, but I'll repeat it anyway. In my area there are two types of stores. The old stores are shrinking their counter space, cutting inventory, and in general feel like they are going out of business. Then there are new stores, and there are a LOT of new stores, that have plenty of guns, many customers, and they seem busy.
I don't believe this is a matter of the old stores wanting to die and give the market over to new players. I think the old stores are caught up in a self-fulfilling prophecy. They think the market is going to collapse, so they scale back inventory and cut corners to "run lean", and as a result they fail at the first rule of retail: retail is entertainment. People want to have fun seeing the guns, even the absurd guns they will never buy. They don't want to role play anti-soviet propaganda from the early 80s about stores with bare shelves. The result, of course, is that they are going to die...leaving the market for the new stores.