packetloss
Member
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2020
- Messages
- 450
So, everyone keeps calling these ammo/primer/powder/etc shortages temporary. Why do you consider these shortages temporary?
While certainly not permanent, they also aren't a "short" period of time either. A short period of time to me, would be 6 months to a year, no more than once every 10 years. We are already 10 months into this one, and many of the previous ones have been as long as 2 years. They also seem to repeat themselves every 5 years on average. Just the fact that people actively "plan" for these events, shows they are more the norm than temporary unexpected occurrences.
The other way to look at this is that what folks think are regular prices aren't permanent either. A better description for how ammo/reloading supplies seem to work is that they are cyclical. Given that these cyclical events keep repeating, I don't agree that manufacturers need to tune their capacity to meet demand only during the non peak demand years. That's not to say, I would expect them to produce the same amounts when demand is lower either. They can get a feel for how demand is and dynamically change their capacity. For example, Vista sports is back ordered over 1 year now. Ramping up production aggressively to knock that down to 9 months and then start slowly backing off production, once the level reaches a 3 month backlog and then zero in on a rate that keeps the status quo once the backlog is gone. Sure, easier said than done, but it's not like these things come as a surprise to anyone.
The adjective temporary is used to describe something that isn't permanent or lasts only a short time. Its roots are in the Latin word tempus, meaning "time or season."
While certainly not permanent, they also aren't a "short" period of time either. A short period of time to me, would be 6 months to a year, no more than once every 10 years. We are already 10 months into this one, and many of the previous ones have been as long as 2 years. They also seem to repeat themselves every 5 years on average. Just the fact that people actively "plan" for these events, shows they are more the norm than temporary unexpected occurrences.
The other way to look at this is that what folks think are regular prices aren't permanent either. A better description for how ammo/reloading supplies seem to work is that they are cyclical. Given that these cyclical events keep repeating, I don't agree that manufacturers need to tune their capacity to meet demand only during the non peak demand years. That's not to say, I would expect them to produce the same amounts when demand is lower either. They can get a feel for how demand is and dynamically change their capacity. For example, Vista sports is back ordered over 1 year now. Ramping up production aggressively to knock that down to 9 months and then start slowly backing off production, once the level reaches a 3 month backlog and then zero in on a rate that keeps the status quo once the backlog is gone. Sure, easier said than done, but it's not like these things come as a surprise to anyone.