The Decline of the Mil Surplus Market?

[buck00]

Like many of you, I have been concerned about the rising prices and growing scarcity of ammunition and certain mil surplus rifles. Don’t get me started on how cheap South African battle packs were, or how reasonable 1,000 rounds of Wolf 7.62 x 39 used to be a few years ago.

* But overall, there just seems to be a common paranoid theme that the clock is ticking- that the massive surplus stockpiles are drying up, prices are soaring with no cease, and you better run out today with your hair on fire to buy what you can before the drought sets in permanently on the market. I’m not disputing things are getting rough, but I do have some questions:

1. Is there any good news? Are there any types of rifles or ammo that will possibly become PLENTIFUL or cheap in the next five to ten years? Or are we on an unstoppable slide into lean times?

2. Does it make logical sense that ammo and rifle prices would simply continue to climb until no one in the U.S. could afford them?

3. Will the 90’s and early 00’s be remembered as the “golden years” when mil surplus was cheap? A total historical fluke??

 

[AJ Dual]

Well, the '34 NFA and '68 GCA will make this a definite fact some time in the future. As the designs modernize through history, no one will have importable semi-automatic only or bolt action rifles in inventory.

Unless there's major changes that get the NFA and GCA struck down, and the seated POTUS throws up no barriers to importation, all the FAL's, AK's, M-16's, G3's etc. will never come in. However, there were literally millions upon millions of various bolt-action designs made, and many are still sitting in the warehouses of several countries. There's still a fair amount out there to be found.

Some of these countries just haven't hit the economic price-point where releasing the surplus for sale will happen. They also haven't probably hit the point militarily where issuing these rifles in some kind of extreme emergency isn't conceivable any more.

You should take some comfort in the knowledge that legally and economically, the U.S. (and to a lesser degree, Canada,) are the only places the remaining surplus can conceivably wind up for sale. At least we're not competing with several million Chinese Mauser collectors.

 

[Daemon688]

Well considering the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan it's no wonder that 7.62x39 and 5.56 has sky-rocketed. Add onto the increasing material cost and we're hit with a double whammy. Maybe when things settle down in Iraq we'll have another glut of surplus 7.62x39.

Regarding surplus rifles, I think we're about to get to the end of the line. It will happen sooner or later since there are only so many WWII rifles sitting in arsenals. Once those supplies dry up, we're out of luck. Some of the more scarce rifles like the Schmidt Rubin are already drying up.

Will ammunition prices get so insane that people can't afford to shoot anymore? No, unless the government has a hand in it.

 

[Cosmoline]

1. Is there any good news? Are there any types of rifles or ammo that will possibly become PLENTIFUL or cheap in the next five to ten years? Or are we on an unstoppable slide into lean times?

Possibly, but not to the extent of the post Cold War boom. North Korea, Cuba and a few other holdouts might come around and sell off their arsenals. But other than that most arsenals these days are going to be NFA items.

2. Does it make logical sense that ammo and rifle prices would simply continue to climb until no one in the U.S. could afford them?

I think we'll see a slow and steady price increase, but the real change is going to be the level of information we have. More and more is being learned about the surplus rifles all the time, and with knowledge comes the ability to separate out the rare from the common. Most of the US surplus firearms are already priced well beyond reach. Whether the European rifles, which are frequently superior in quality, ever reach that price level is another question. The US market tends to be pretty jingoistic, and anything with an American brand tends to get an inflated price tag.

3. Will the 90’s and early 00’s be remembered as the “golden years” when mil surplus was cheap? A total historical fluke??

They'll be remembered as *a* golden age, or maybe the silver age. The real golden age was back when you could buy Mannlicher-Schoenauers or minty Garands for a few tenspots.

 

[Niner]

Buckoo

Milsurps are going to always be there in my opinion. Prices, according to supply of product for sale, go up and down and that is important to keep in mind if you are a new collector. Take the great influx of CZ52 pistols. Once upon a time they were hard to come by and expensive now all the usual sources have a great store of them at cheap prices for at least a little while. What about the No. 5 Enfield? Once they were hard to find and expensive. Then Century introduced a large shipment from southeast Asia and the prices went down dramatically. Now that supply is gone they are going up again in price. There used to be a lot of Turk Mausers for cheap prices...now mostly gone and the prices of those that are in the market are going up. Etc.. Etc.

In my opinion there will always be more milsurps to buy than any individual is going to have the money to purchase or space to store. Just don't miss out on the bargains as they open up. Now days take a look at the cheap SKS prices and the M44's and K98K's for instance.

 

[cracked butt]

Its real easy- buy quality when its low in price and buy as many as you can.

The Swedish M96 rifles used to sell for around $100 or less, you can say the 'golden age' for Swedish surplus rifles is long gone. Same with the M94 Carbines that preceded them by a few decades. If you want to know what 'golden' is, try to find and then fund a M94 carbine or even parts for one. I've been following carbine parts very closely (I'm restoring one myself) on Ebay lately- stock disks and range plates are selling for $80-90, barrel bands for $40-60, Bayonet lugs for $110-170, and stocks from $250-400.

The last of the Swiss rifles are heading down the same path. If you didn't buy all the K-31s that you wanted by now, you might be SOL, or will already have to settle for higher prices or lower quality.

What usually happens when something new hits the shores is
1. a few intrepid gun nuts buy them and find that they are great guns.
2. Most people find the cartridge to be too exotic or too much work for them to reload or too expensive to buy and the guns languish on store shelves for a few years.
3. Enough people take a risk and buy the gun and confirm the reports of the people in group #1.
4. Die and brass manufacturers start makign production runs of dies and brass.
5. The rest of the crowd starts buying the gun and is quickly bought up.

The good news is that there will still be cheap mosin nagants for sale and ammo for them whne the cockroaches finally inherit the earth.

 

[RUT]

I suddenly have a new respect for my .22's!!

 

[davera]

I am fairly new to the milsurp marketplace but have spent considerable time browsing the gun shows and doing outside reading and research to learn the market, at least the retail "don't have a CFL" market. It is true that there are some "golden age" items now and that changes as a particular market matures. K31's are going up in price but still cheap for what you get. Swedish mausers time has passed but I was still able to get a 96/38 for $200. Expensive compared to its golden age but still cheap for what you get.

Bolt action milsurps will always be around but the laws of supply and demand will dictate prices, eventually Mosins will not be so cheap anymore.

 

[Langenator]

If the Russians ever replace the 7.62x54R with something else, I'd expect a huge dump of that stuff.

Also, with China replacing their 7.62x39 rifles with their new 5.8mm, I'd expect to see a huge pile of Chicom 7.62x39 come onto the market. Unfortunately, I think it's been banned from import.

 

[GRB]

7.62x39 ammunition has gone up in price because it is in high demand in countries at war. It is still a relative bargain though, or so I think it. If and when the war in Iraq and Afghaniustan end, prices will probably plummet within a year, barring of course an additional mid to large-scale wars.

As for surplus rifles, sooner or later the supply has to run out. Before it does that it will dwindle to a low supply, as it now probably has on many such rifles. Therefore the price goes up. This is probably about to happen with Yugo SKS rifles. There are reportedly some remaining orders to come into the US market later this month, or so. My bet is that these will be higher in price, or at least the batch to follow them will be higher in price, as the price for these may already have been paid by the importers or dealers.

All the best,
Glenn B

 

[longhorngunman]

Yep, most are drying up except for the Mosin's which will be around for quite awhile, the Commies had the quantity thing down pat. Noticed that Aim is already down to just beech stock K31 guns now. Anybody sitting on a fence better get (or two) now before theyre all gone.

In fact if you want to know of some current bargains I'd say the Ishapore .308's that Aim has are way undervalued for what they will eventually settle at. Enfield, .308 caliber, not many made, good gun to have. They excellent grade Yugo SKS's are another good buy. If Ruger made these things they'd be $500 bucks. Also think that the Russian rearsenaled German K98's that are still floating around will increase in value sharply once the supply completely dries up.

 

[cracked butt]

The M95 Steyr Mannlichers are probably the best deal out there right now. Once again, there will probably be few takers as it fireas an odd sized bullet in an odd piece of brass.

 

[ReadyontheRight]

There is a bit of good news -- look at all the M16 suppliers churning out AR15 parts for the civilian market. Stag Arms, Rock River, DPMS, etc. I think we're ina golden age of both WW2 and modern rifles.

We need to continue the fight to keep both going.

 

[BADUNAME13]

Deals are out there... I've been buying in Cycles... I buy the cheap stuff... and it winds up MORE than paying for the guns to shoot it.

Right now I got 5.45x39 and am Considering getting HEAVILY into 7.62x54.

 

[buck00]

Thanks for all the responses!

I never really thought about how the laws from 1934 and 68 will hamstring new surplus imports- or how we may never see 7.62 x 39 ammo from China due to import laws.

And I agree, I definetely think Yugos are going to $300 plus (or much mroe) someday, and I'll be kicking myself for not getting one while they were under $150.


* I'm a new collector so I'm just going to hang in there and get what I can and watch the market.

 

[The_Shootist]

Chinese Conversion?

Anybody know when the Chinese are set to convert over to their new calibre? I bet once they do, you'll see a few lobbyists running around the Hill trying to get the laws changed.

The Chinese aren't stupid - the US would be one of the largest firearms markets in the world. As well, they probably have warehouses full of 7.62x39 rounds that would be gathering dust. Its probably corrosive, but the potential savings could allow me to buy alot of Windex

Yeah, they could just unload alot of it to some 3rd World hell holes - but its probably not a lucrative and would be more risky

 

[Sunray]

"...unstoppable slide into lean times..." Yep. Sooner or later the supplies of milsurps that don't require extra taxes and permits are going to be gone. Armies don't use bolt action rifles or semi-autos for that matter, anymore.
Government interference doesn't help either. Your ATF is being allowed to make law by regulation and won't allow a selective fire rifle to be converted to semi-auto only. Our idiot government has declared the same thing. No more converted FA's.
No reimporting Stateside of Lend/Lease firearms. The GCA of 1968 did that for you. Plus the Third World Debating club is busy trying to halt the international trade in small arms too.
If you see something you want, buy it if you can. It'll either be gone or more expensive if you hesitate.

 

[jagdpanzer347]

Buy 5.45x39mm and 7.62x25mm ammo if you want something to "buy cheap and stack deep." I'll wager we'll see tins of 5.45 at 109.95 a tin before to long. It's enough to get me even more interested in an AK74 platform.

-jagd

 

[alucard0822]

I have repaeatedly kicked myself for passing up deals, a couple years ago you could get a semi auto converted M14 for $700 in great shape, at a few gun shows around here, now M1As are running about $1500 and the surps are gone. Cheap 308 has also gone the way of the dodo:banghead: