The impact of Obama's supreme court choices on our struggle

[Kali]

I heard that Obama may have two more court nominees on the horizon. Obviously one is coming up soon. Assuming a favorable result in the Chicago case, it might be the last favorable result in the next 20-30 if he gets 2 more appointments. Wouldn't the score card look something like 6-3 at that point? Are we screwed in the long run?

 

[shockwave]

Wouldn't the score card look something like 6-3 at that point? Are we screwed in the long run?

No. President Obama will only be able to replace the old justices, who are fairly moderate, and the activist wing (Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito) are still relatively young. No changes in the general makeup of the court will happen during the current administration. Also, as the President noted in a recent press conference, there is "no political will" to enact any kind of gun control legislation. The issue is completely dead. Owner rights will more likely see a steady and gradual expansion - more "shall issue," more reciprocity.

 

[Alabama2010]

No. President Obama will only be able to replace the old justices, who are fairly moderate, and the activist wing (Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito) are still relatively young. No changes in the general makeup of the court will happen during the current administration. Also, as the President noted in a recent press conference, there is "no political will" to enact any kind of gun control legislation. The issue is completely dead. Owner rights will more likely see a steady and gradual expansion - more "shall issue," more reciprocity.

so we get increased gun rights at the expense of all others...

 

[Cosmoline]

I think we're going to see an increasingly marginalized left. With the loss of their elder spokesman and the probable loss of RBG, they will have less chance of bringing Kennedy over. Already this pattern has been emerging.

All of this can change, however, if Obama nominates and the Senate approves someone who can reinvigorate the left and persuade Kennedy.

There may also be heart attacks, cancers and other problems that we cannot foresee.

 

[Kali]

No. President Obama will only be able to replace the old justices, who are fairly moderate, and the activist wing (Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito) are still relatively young. No changes in the general makeup of the court will happen during the current administration. Also, as the President noted in a recent press conference, there is "no political will" to enact any kind of gun control legislation. The issue is completely dead. Owner rights will more likely see a steady and gradual expansion - more "shall issue," more reciprocity.

That is encouraging to hear. I guess I should not have assumed it was "our guys" who were getting old.

Since I live in California, every inch counts. I am pretty jealous of you guys who live in 1 of the 39 shall issue states. But then again, I walked 2 blocks this morning and went surfing But my rent for 1 room of a 3 bedroom apt is 800$ a month, which is hindering my purchase of the Glock 19 I have my sights set on. Not to mention the fact that our gun roster will likely take a while to catch up before I can buy a gen 4 19 here when it comes out. I have a love/hate relationship with this state.

 

[Ben86]

This upcoming appointment will likely be his last. I'm not too worried, I'm more worried about how my taxes will fair.

Is that $800 one third of the total cost? $2,400 a month?!! That's insane! Where I'm at 3 bedroom apts go for $500-$800 a month. No wonder there are so many homeless there.

 

[mack]

Actually I believe Scalia is 74 and Kennedy is 73 so not all of the 5 majority in Heller are young. I don't know that both will make it through a 2nd presidential term by Obama if he is re-elected. I don't think - God willing - that either want to retire and allow this president to appoint replacements for them. Speculation was that Stevens and Ginsburg would have retired earlier but they didn't want to while Bush was in Office.

As far as the effect of replacing one to the majority of 5 from the Heller decision - one word - "disaster" - for gun rights - I don't think they would openly overule Heller or McDonald (if it incorporates) - they would just begin to gut the RKBA by finding it to be a right in word but not in practice - probably something along the lines of a core right - can't ban all guns - but anything short of that is pretty much okay.

 

[Balrog]

The fight for gun control is not over. We will go through a period of complacency where we think we have won the battle. You can see this trend even now by some of the posts in this thread. NRA membership will fall and contributions will go down. Then they will push for more gun control.

 

[leadcounsel]

Ebs and flows... all it takes is a few bad incidents, or one heart attack or car accident...

 

[rdb]

Kali, buy a wetsuit and move to Oregon.

 

[Guns and more]

The appointments to the Supreme Court are the longest lasting legacy of a president.
When you voted for "change" you didn't think it meant communism, but court appointments are for LIFE.

 

[Kali]

This upcoming appointment will likely be his last. I'm not too worried, I'm more worried about how my taxes will fair.

Is that $800 one third of the total cost? $2,400 a month?!! That's insane! Where I'm at 3 bedroom apts go for $500-$800 a month. No wonder there are so many homeless there.

Yes, its actually $2250 but with utilities I end up paying ~$800 monthly. This was one of the cheaper spots around here too. My girlfriend goes to UCLA and lives in Westwood, she pays $800 a month to SHARE A ROOM in a one bedroom apt.

I lived in Columbus, Ohio for my first 2 years of college. $300 for my room one block from campus. Oh how I miss those days.

 

[ljnowell]

Obama has no intention of infringing upon your gun rights, yet. If he gets re-elected, watch out. Once he doesn't have to worry about getting back in office, we are done. It will become a top priority at that point. Dont look for a "sunset" in this one either. They learned that mistake from the last time they infringed upon our rights.

 

[RP88]

They didn't want to put a sunset on it. It was a last minute compromise. Keep in mind that the AWB passed by one vote. That's it.

But they are wary that the one vote for that cost them 26 votes for the next eight years.

I do not think we will see another AWB under serious consideration - at least not for awhile. The only reason for my thought on that is because they are not only so popular nowadays (compared to no one wanting them 20 years ago), but the Democrats do not want to re-live 1996.

At this point, barring a complete and permanent party takeover of our entire government, the most I see is them trying to fight tooth and nail to have AWB-covered weapons of any kind fall under some section or possibly a new amendment section to the NFA, in an attempt to just make owning one a financial inconvenience similar to SBRs, SBS's, silencers, etc.. I sincerely think that the political landscape has changed too much for any real ban to come forward, especially if the "republican revenge" that has apparently been happening goes as far as the upcoming mid-terms, and the democratic majority narrows.

 

[Husker_Fan]

Expanding gun control is a losing issue even with the majority of Democrats. Look at Iowa, where shall issue would have never passed a few years ago was passed with a substantial majority of the dems in the state legislature and signed by a dem governor.

I would like a Justice that has an expansive view of all rights guaranteed by the Constitution, not just some of them. That, unfortunately, seems to be a problem with both sides of the Court. We have a majority that hurt property rights in eminent domain cases, but upheld the Second Amendment in Heller. They uphold free speach but lower protections from unreasonable searches. It's not a R vs. D thing.

 

[benEzra]

In the near term, appointing Sarah Brady herself to replace justice Stevens would not make the Court more anti-gun, because Stevens is already as anti-gun as one can get. Anyone whom Obama might appoint to replace him is going to be either the same on RKBA and related issues, or better.

 

[leadcounsel]

In the near term, appointing Sarah Brady herself to replace justice Stevens would not make the Court more anti-gun, because Stevens is already as anti-gun as one can get. Anyone whom Obama might appoint to replace him is going to be either the same on RKBA and related issues, or better.

Yes, but in the long term, say a few decades, it continually damages pro-gun (and similar) rights. To the contrary, if a pro-gun appointee is made, it's like a 2 vote swing! For a 9 vote court, thats a backbreaker!

 

[ManBearPig]

Yes, but in the long term, say a few decades, it continually damages pro-gun (and similar) rights. To the contrary, if a pro-gun appointee is made, it's like a 2 vote swing! For a 9 vote court, thats a backbreaker!

While Obama is smart enough to stay as far away from gun control as he possibly can, that in no way means he's changed his opinion on the matter. The chances of him appointing a justice that would even give humor to the thought of voting pro-2nd Amendment on any gun case put before them are the same chances of Sarah Michelle Gellar and Anna Faris both showing up naked on my doorstep.

 

[leadcounsel]

I wasn't suggesting Obama would appoint a pro-gun Justice. I was merely saying that the effects of the appointment would last decades.

 

[whalerman]

A common theme in this discussion seems to be that it doesn't matter much who Obama selects for the position of Supreme Court Justice. I couldn't disagree more. We're at the edge. If we lose this at the federal level, we can kiss all these carry permits and shall issue bs laws goodbye. It really can happen with zealots on the Court. Something as simple as requiring citizens to have a multi million dollar insurance policy could squeeze our rights away in just a few years.

I don't share everyone's sense of confidence.

 

[UpTheIrons]

Also, as the President noted in a recent press conference, there is "no political will" to enact any kind of gun control legislation. The issue is completely dead.

Not so fast there.

Whenever you look at or think about Pres. Obama, think of a sleight-of-hand magician. He may be waving his right hand in front of you with a quarter, but you should really be looking for his left hand that's holding the claw hammer that he's going to use on us.

Don't focus on his SCOTUS appointment(s) - look at his lower court appointments and at the things his lackeys are up to, including Hillary's openness to the UN Small Arms Treaty, etc.

Sure there's "no political will" to work on gun control (or immigration for that matter) but he's surely working on it behind the scenes as surely as Mayor Daley is diggin' up dead-guy votes in Chicago.

The leopard cannot change his spots, and Pres. Obama showed us his long before he was elected president.

 

[LRS_Ranger]

A false sense of security is the surest way to get defeated... so is underestimating your enemy...

 

[RedLion]

Once he doesn't have to worry about getting back in office, we are done.

We're at the edge. If we lose this at the federal level, we can kiss all these carry permits and shall issue bs laws goodbye.

think of a sleight-of-hand magician. He may be waving his right hand in front of you with a quarter, but you should really be looking for his left hand that's holding the claw hammer that he's going to use on us.

A false sense of security is the surest way to get defeated... so is underestimating your enemy...

Wow.....And to wonder why some people in this country don't want us to have guns......

 

[UpTheIrons]

Wow.....And to wonder why some people in this country don't want us to have guns......

I suppose the language "the claw hammer he's going to use against us" may be a bit extreme, but I was making a point.

In the week before election day, then-candidate Obama said "We are five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America." Most people thought he meant the usual nebulous "hope" and "change" every candidate promises to the people who barely pay attention.

But those of us who were looking long and hard at the issues, and at his past, knew that isn't what he was talking about. He was talking about a fundamental transformation of this nation, and it has been done, for the most part, behind the scenes.

+ Bills were passed before the final language was even agreed on.
+ Appointed (not elected) people (some call them "czars") started making pronouncements and policy changes that are radical departures from the way the Executive Branch has always worked in the past.
+ Trial baloons were floated, then denied by POTUS if they weren't generally liked (except for the healthcare bill), but trumpeted by him if they were liked.

Sure, some of this stuff used to be reserved for the late night AM talk shows, but much of what they talked about 18 months ago has come to fruition.

So, yes, there are people who don't want us to have guns, and sometimes (most of the time, really), we in the "gun culture" are our own worst enemy. But it is not paranoia if they are really out to get you. However, I prefer the term "preparedanoia" - knowing what they want to do is half the battle, and I've done the homework.

Yes, there may be quite a bit of hyperbole in the quotes you strung together,
but there is a grain of truth at the root of each of them. President Obama is in no way our friend, and he, like Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Feinstein will pick the time and the place to renew the assault on firearms in this country, and if their past record is any predictor of future action, they will start by surreptitiously weaseling in language into bills behind the scenes to do it, or by stacking courts (a la Roosevelt in the 1930's) to legislate things from the bench.

At heart, I am an optimist. But in truth, I am a realist. I trust no one in government these days. To many of them lie, and when they all spend that much time together, it tends to rub off.

 

[Voimakas]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the Holder-proposed AWB shot down by Dems in Congress who basically said, What are you? A giant friggin' idiot? We don't want a repeat of '94. We Americans love our guns.

The best way to not have to worry about SCOTUS appointments is to make sure there's a strong RKBA following on both sides of the aisle. Slowly but surely Dems are coming around to the idea that gun control laws really don't work. Look at the various states that passed shall issue laws within the last 25 years. They weren't all passed by Republican House Reps/Senators and signed by Republican governors.