The Panic may be over but gun sales aren't

[BSA1]

"US gun sales could hit a record high in 2015 with no signs of slowing down"

"The US Federal Bureau of Investigations is on pace to process a record number of firearm background checks this year, signaling that gun sales might reach an all-time high as well.

During the month of October, the FBI conducted 1,976,759 firearm background checks through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), according to the government’s monthly report. That’s a 23% increase from a year earlier and an all-time high for the month."

A traditional economic view would be to expect diminished sales as consumer demand has been met resulting in the end of panic buying.

Another view would be demand would be reduced as buyers loaded up their credit cards from purchases.

Then there folks who waited out the Banic and prices to drop before making their purchases. This would seem to be one major factor (at least for me).

None the less gun purchases are generally a reflection of peoples confidence in the future. A strong argument can be made in this case of the lack of faith in the Federal Government to take meaningful steps to address the severe problems facing this country.

http://qz.com/541417/us-gun-sales-c...with-no-signs-of-slowing-down/?utm_source=YPL

 

[CoRoMo]

I wonder how much of the increase is due to states like mine that have recently beset UBC onto its populace. Because the normal gun trade would continue, but NICS would experience a spike.

 

[hso]

Impressive table of information when you look at 1998 to the present.

 

[Kingcreek]

Just wait until we closer to the Hillary election. She is all in on gun control and will probably be very competitive in the polls unless things take a different direction.

 

[BSA1]

Smith & Wesson stock is being recommended as a buy by several brokers;

"Smith & Wesson: Gun orders are picking up again"

"Smith & Wesson (SWHC) shares soared 13% Wednesday as the company announced that firearm orders are picking up again. Sales in recent weeks have been better than expected.

The company now forecasts sales of between $175 million to $179 million for the quarter. That's up 8% from its projection just six weeks ago and will help boost the company's earnings as well.

Investors are sensing potential in the gun market again. The company's stock is now up a whopping 50% since the start of 2015.

As commented just wait until the elections get closer and Obama tries to whip up support from their base by more executive actions banning guns and ammunition.

Smith & Wesson gun sales hit a record of $626.6 million last year. The company won't be anywhere near that for this fiscal year, which runs through the end of April, but the pick up in orders recently may signal a turning point. Its latest projection is for full-year sales of between $546 million and $550 million -- about on track with 2013 numbers."

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/15/investing/smith-wesson-sales-increase-stock/index.html

 

[AlexanderA]

People are expecting another panic next year. They are buying guns now, partly speculating that prices will rise and they can sell at a profit. This is not irrational.

 

[CoalTrain49]

Sales tax and dealer transfer fees may also play a part of it. If you get a UBC like we did here in WA it means 9% sales tax is paid even on a used gun. Typical sales tax and transfer fee would add $70 to the price of a $500 gun and $115 for a $1000 gun.

Might as well beat the rush and avoid the added expense. They are even trying to put a sin tax on ammo now.

 

[jmace57]

People are expecting another panic next year. They are buying guns now, partly speculating that prices will rise and they can sell at a profit. This is not irrational.

I can tell you that I have started my $100 per month ammo purchases again, which I started about 6 months before Sandy Hook. (Plus I bought a lot of primers and powder when it became available again)

 

[Panzerschwein]

I guess it's decided then.

Going to have to buy a few more guns I want, then focus on stockpiling ammo. I am pretty worried about Hillary. Things are starting to look dark again, unfortunately.

Buy it while you can guys.

 

[PabloJ]

I guess it's decided then.

Going to have to buy a few more guns I want, then focus on stockpiling ammo. I am pretty worried about Hillary. Things are starting to look dark again, unfortunately.

Buy it while you can guys.

Yes, very good advice considering what is going to happen next November. Given current legal and illegal immigration trends what is coming next November is just tip of the iceberg.

 

[AlexanderA]

Yes, you may kick yourself later if you don't buy now while things are "normal."

Although, to be honest, if there's another ban the antigunners won't make the same mistake (from their point of view) of grandfathering existing guns. They'll do what Diane Feinstein wanted to do after Sandy Hook, which was to bring semiautomatics under the NFA (with something like a $5,000 transfer tax).

 

[MachIVshooter]

If you get a UBC like we did hear in WA it means 9% sales tax is paid even on a used gun

They're taxing transfers between private individuals???

Wow. I was ticked when our legislature rammed UBC through, but at least on the monetary end it's just a $10 fee.

 

[CoalTrain49]

They'll do what Diane Feinstein wanted to do after Sandy Hook, which was to bring semiautomatics under the NFA (with something like a $5,000 transfer tax).

Are you serious? Did she include semi-auto pistols? I didn't keep up with what she proposed because she's rabid.

 

[bannockburn]

Hopefully more gun sales makes for more new gun owners and will mean more pro-gun voters at the polls on election day.

 

[BSA1]

Hopefully more gun sales makes for more new gun owners and will mean more pro-gun voters at the polls on election day.

I would add that they vote for fewer gun laws and restrictions. We have a sizeable group of gun owners that believe in Universal Background Check as a way of preventing mass murders.

 

[yugorpk]

They're taxing transfers between private individuals???

Wow. I was ticked when our legislature rammed UBC through, but at least on the monetary end it's just a $10 fee.

Thats where the UBC's ugly side comes in. You are NOT transferring a gun through individuals. Your are transferring the gun to a dealer who then transfers the gun to someone else. Ive known a few dealers in Washington who got nailed for not charging the sales tax on transfers and who lost their businesses over it. You are also at the mercy of dealers who are under no obligation to charge reasonable transfer fees. I know of one dealer who will not do private transfers unless he buys from the seller at wholesale rate and sells at what he considers retail and thats for between individuals!

And BTW if the buyer doesnt pass the NCIC check the dealer has to transfer the gun back to you on a 4473 and you pay his transfer fee. If YOU cant pass the NCIC no gun for you...

 

[The Alaskan]

We have a sizeable group of gun owners that believe in Universal Background Check as a way of preventing mass murders.

Yes we do.

 

[The Alaskan]

None the less gun purchases are generally a reflection of peoples confidence in the future. A strong argument can be made in this case of the lack of faith in the Federal Government to take meaningful steps to address the severe problems facing this country.

http://qz.com/541417/us-gun-sales-c...with-no-signs-of-slowing-down/?utm_source=YPL

Interesting. Soooooooooo......gun owners have no faith in the government.........aaaaaaand......gun owners are buying guns to "...address the severe problems facing this country" because the government won't.

Interesting.

That's a pretty broad brush you have there.

 

[X-Rap]

None the less gun purchases are generally a reflection of peoples confidence in the future. A strong argument can be made in this case of the lack of faith in the Federal Government to take meaningful steps to address the severe problems facing this country.

I'm afraid this is one of the big reasons and hope the pendulum will be swinging back next election cycle.
No matter what happens there will be pain in the future to get things back on track, took decades to screw it up and I don't feel there is that luxury of time to repair.

 

[AlexanderA]

Are you serious? Did she include semi-auto pistols? I didn't keep up with what she proposed because she's rabid.

Feinstein's proposal would have applied to what she defined as "assault weapons" -- pretty much what was in the '94 AWB, but with less emphasis on cosmetic features. In other words, you couldn't get away from the definition of "assault weapon" just by removing a flash hider or pistol grip. It wasn't clear if she would bring the millions of "high capacity" magazines under the NFA as well, or just ban them altogether.

Even the antigun crowd told her to step back from that, but it's an indication of what they would really like to do if they had the votes.

There's been talk in antigun circles of allowing -- as a concession to the 2nd Amendment as interpreted by the Supreme Court in the Heller case -- one revolver per household. No semiautomatic pistols, and nothing other than bolt-action rifles and break-open shotguns for hunting. Some of these people think that even that is too generous.

 

[MIL-DOT]

People are expecting another panic next year. They are buying guns now, partly speculating that prices will rise and they can sell at a profit. This is not irrational.

I'm less confident about that than most folks. Too many people got burned blowing $2000 on AR's, that they later couldn't get half their money back out of.
Even non-gun buffs heard all about the big panic, the shortages, the price hikes,etc.
Every gun guy I know has spent the last few years preparing for another big panic, either just stocking up for themselves, or to capitalize financially on the frenzy.
I'm sure we'll see some crazy prices next year, but I'm betting we don't see nearly the same amount of people willing to pay them that we have previously.

 

[stonecutter2]

Thats where the UBC's ugly side comes in. You are NOT transferring a gun through individuals. Your are transferring the gun to a dealer who then transfers the gun to someone else. Ive known a few dealers in Washington who got nailed for not charging the sales tax on transfers and who lost their businesses over it. You are also at the mercy of dealers who are under no obligation to charge reasonable transfer fees. I know of one dealer who will not do private transfers unless he buys from the seller at wholesale rate and sells at what he considers retail and thats for between individuals!

And BTW if the buyer doesnt pass the NCIC check the dealer has to transfer the gun back to you on a 4473 and you pay his transfer fee. If YOU cant pass the NCIC no gun for you...

If you can't pass the background check to get your own gun back, perhaps you shouldn't have had it anyways? Errors/mistakes aside.

 

[Arizona_Mike]

Not failure with the term "Banic". Is that "Buying panic" or short for Obanic?

Edit: just realized it might mean "Ban Panic".

Mike

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

Ummm...I think some people have a gross misconception here about what Diane Feinstein wants. Like the bit about her wanting all semi-automatics on the NFA list with some outrageous transfer fee, like maybe $5,000.

That isn't what she wants at all, and she's said it in her own words:

Such hysterical hyperbole is nothing new for Feinstein, who in 1994 said the Clinton-Era Assault Weapons Ban she authored didn't go far enough in restricting firearms.

"If I could have banned them all -- 'Mr. and Mrs. America turn in your guns' -- I would have!" she said in a quote that endures as a rallying cry for the growing legion of "Mr. and Mrs. Americas" who fear Feinstein's ultimate aim is to criminalize private ownership of firearms.

 

[DSAPT9]

BSA1
A strong argument can be made in this case of the lack of faith in the Federal Government to take meaningful steps to address the severe problems facing this country.

I have to agree but I can only speak for myself and what I hear from the folks I deal with in the gun shop/sporting goods store I work at and over 55% of folks currently buying say they are buying because they fear the government and the direction the country is going as their main reason and the second reason is personal defense.

To best serve folks I have always asked my customer what the main reason they want to use this firearm for so I can show them all the options to fit their needs it’s amazing how much folks will talk about if you make them feel comfortable.

I have worked weekends there since around 2000 and back then sales were to hunters and the usual gun collector, after the election of Obama it was fear of guns being banned and the ramp up in sales of AR, AK and polymer hand guns became the norm. After Sandy hook as we all know there was a panic buy of everything with a magazine and ammo to match.

The last two years 30 to 40 percent of our sales are to women for personal protection with a medium fear of the government and the way the country is going. Sales over the years have continually grown and are currently stable at 2.5 times what they were in 2000 and unlike what many anti gun articles say about gun ownership going down 65 percent or more of our sales are to new first time buyers.

Even the guys that are buying rifles for hunting are looking more at AR10, M14/M1A or .308 tactical bolt guns just in case something does go down they can hunt and get military ammo if needed.

This attitude could just be because of my location as I do live in North Idaho that currently is a gun friendly state where open carry is common and the Constitution and patriotism still mean something.