the Shortage - when do you think it will end?

[tuj]

So unless you've been living under a rock since Sandy Hook, everything has went crazy, AR part's prices, then hi-cap mags, then .223 ammo, then pistol ammo's and now even 22lr is hard to find. I don't reload myself, but my commerical reloader who does my loads is running low on supplies and can't get any more.

I know I know, stock up beforehand. However that's hard when you don't make a fortune and you shoot tens of thousands of rounds a year.

So I have to imagine that all the ammo factories are running full-out. Eventually the hoarders will be satisfied with their supplies and/or be out of money faster than the ammo makers can replace their wares.

So if that's all true, when does this shortage end?

 

[Ohio Gun Guy]

It ends when the government stops talking about which ban they would like to enact.... They talk about magazines. magazine sales spike; they talk about "Assault Weapon" bans, ar & ak sales spike; they talk about ammo bans, limits, taxes, ammunition spikes.

I have been watching gun boards, and most are still running high but are not as high as they were. What we need is 3-6 months of calm, with no B.S. from the government and things will cool off. The UP side to all this, is this is a real message to the govt. Consider that your fellow gun owners are doubling down, and voting with their wallets, and everyone can see. Lets just hope that the next time we all vote on Congress, Senate, and President these lessons are fresh in their minds and we elect Superior 2nd amendment supporting candidates. I find that most of the time, the true supporters of gun rights, agree with me on most other things....

 

[SCPigpen]

Things may quite down but if another incident happens or the leftists keep talking about gun control people will continue to buy as much as they can. Theortically, this "shortage" could go one for a long time.

Handoading components are out there. I just got confirmation that my 16lbs of wc846 will be delivered on monday, I have been finding primers at guns shows for about the pre-panic prices and projectiles are here and there. For pistols I use cast bullets so I'm not too worried about them.

The way things are going, if the leftists get a bill like universal back ground checks passed, things may calm down, until the next incident. Even then if the leftists do get something past people who have scrounged and scrounged to find ammo might continue to stockpile beause you never know when some crazy will shoot a place up again.

You also have mid term elections. If the Republicans lose the house, and the dems retain the senate then that could spark another frenzy for fear of unfettered leftist rule.

 

[kgpcr]

I wonder how much manufacturers are ramping up production. Also it would be nice to see us import more primers such as Tula and Wolf!

 

[Bubbles]

We're already seeing gun prices moderate a bit. I don't know if that's just the economy or people selling off firearms (thus increasing supply) because income taxes are due in a few weeks.

OTOH I don't see ammo prices coming down until next year.

 

[Ohio Gun Guy]

SCpigpen: Dont you think that if all of the people "panic" buying vote the same way we wont have a problem in the mid terms?

I'm sincerely scratching my head with this run on guns, how it has to be that many of these same people voted for these guys....

I really hope more people vote this issue!

 

[jim243]

So if that's all true, when does this shortage end?

Let's get real, Federal makes 4 MILLION rounds a day of 22 LR. You really think that the horders and shooters are purchasing this all up???

Let's not forget the 9mm, 40 S&W, 45 ACP, 223/5.56, .308 and other popular calibers that are made on a DAILY basis. Now where do you think this is all going to??

Those EOs that the president signed, you though they were for bans, I think they were for purchases. Hay, a billion dollars here and a billion dollars there buys a lot of ammo. If they can't stop you from buying guns, they may as well try stopping you from having ammo. That's a lot easier (and cheaper) than getting a AWB passed.

Jim

 

[Tony50ae]

Actually yes I do believe that people are buying it all up. The ammo is getting out there, but does not stay on the shelves long. For example at the local walmarts they have been getting ammo. And as soon as they do people are snatching it up. Though the past few days it seems the ammo is coming in faster than people are buying it. I managed to buy a box of 45acp and two boxes of 22 magnum that were not available for weeks! Sorry I just don't believe the government is buying it all up. just go to any store that sells ammo and watch when they get a shipment in. People are in lines trying to get it. Now unless those are government agents buying it up then there is no government conspiracy!

 

[sansone]

Let's get real, Federal makes 4 MILLION rounds a day of 22 LR. You really think that the horders and shooters are purchasing this all up???

Let's not forget the 9mm, 40 S&W, 45 ACP, 223/5.56, .308 and other popular calibers that are made on a DAILY basis. Now where do you think this is all going to??

Those EOs that the president signed, you though they were for bans, I think they were for purchases. Hay, a billion dollars here and a billion dollars there buys a lot of ammo. If they can't stop you from buying guns, they may as well try stopping you from having ammo. That's a lot easier (and cheaper) than getting a AWB passed.

Jim

"govt buying ammo to keep us from having any"

last month I would have said this is nonsense, today I'm starting to believe it.

 

[jim243]

Tony, Tony, Tony. Yes people are scared and buying what they can, but the major supply of ammo, bullets, powder and primers are going somewhere else than the general public. Maybe your right, then maybe your wrong. I am sure the National Park Service, FEMA, Coast Guard, FBI, Ariport Security, Imigration and Naturalization Service (INS & ICE), Customs Service, Treasury Department need all that ammo they are purchasing.

And I suppose you think there is no "Area 51", well there is an Area 51 for government research projects, it's just not on any map that is made and will never be on one. Trust your government, that is a good one (LOL) I suppose your taxes will never go up as well, I will believe that when pigs can fly (LOL)

Jim

 

[ID-shooting]

Just this week alone I was able to purchace 5 boxes of Rem 223, a box of 45acp, and 6 boxes of .22lr from wally world. They had WWB 9mm but I hit my 3box limit on the 223. It is there, it is just getting bought up.

 

[Tony50ae]

Trust the government? Actually I trust some people in it, the rest no way!! But one thing I can tell is that if there was a conspiracy to buy all the ammo, they are not doing it well enough as people here on this very board are still getting ammo, just not as easily as before. Plus everybody who talks about the government acts like it is this single entity. Its not. It is made up of many agencies, that half the time cannot even agree to even work with each other! If you think that there is all kinds of red tape when dealing with the government, you should see the red tape with the government dealing with itself! I work for the government twice and I can tell you its nuts! Trust me, secrets get leaked out all the time, even from the president's own cabinet. If there was a conspiracy to get all the ammo, I assure you it would leak out one way or the other. I am not saying its a possibility, cause anything can be, but it is not likely that the government could keep it secret for long

 

[jim243]

but it is not likely that the government could keep it secret for long

That we agree on, only time will tell. How many years did we have the F-117 operational before the public was told (I think it was 5 years)?

I can understand if the ammo is needed for the Army, but rumors are that we will need it for North Korea soon, if your under 35 look forward to the draft being reinstated. People in 1934 did not believe that there would be another world war, or that Pearl Harbor would ever be attacked, I guess they were wrong.

Jim

 

[Tony50ae]

True on the F117, but certain secrets are easier to keep when dealing with national security. Buying ammo does not fall in that area, yet! The Republicans would love nothing more than to show the country that the President was trying to by all the ammo up!
Heck I'm kinda worried about North Korea as I am still serving in the Guard. Already deployed twice. We won't need a draft to deal with them though. Even now with the current state of our military, we are more than able to deal with them. The technology gap between us them them has grown since the last war. Not to mention we have the South Koreans whose military is quite capable as well. If it went nuclear, you wouldn't need a draft then anyways!

 

[OilyPablo]

I want some actual proof the Government (.GOV) is REALLY influencing the manufacturing, distribution, flow, supply, etc of ammo and components. I have not read one scrap of truth, one piece of evidence, one fact to authenticate this. Just people spouting stuff. And yes some big gov agencies continue to buy ammo, but even that is small potatoes relative to current consumer demand.

Right now demand is still outstripping supply. Demand by citizens.

There has been .45ACP FMJ at PSA for nearly a week now, three brands. $24.99/50. This is some improvement.

I was able to buy 400 rounds of 9X18 (Makarov 9), which I could not find before.

Still no one has 9x19 (9mm) to be had.

It will indeed end when the crazy talk ceases.

 

[Tony50ae]

9mm has been available here in spurts actually. Before, no way.

 

[LemmyCaution]

AR prices have returned to what they were in November, 2012, in my area. I noticed no shortage of ammunition at my LGS at my last visit, and prices were only marginally elevated.

Gun shows are a seasonal affair around here. That season recently concluded, and I'm going to guess that poor sales at panic prices sent a signal that the market needed a correction.

Additionally, the AWB and magazine limit bills are commonly thought to be DOA. Even the UBC bill, which most people thought had the best chance of making it through, seems very much like it will die in committee and not make it even to the democratic party controlled senate.

 

[jim243]

I want some actual proof the Government (.GOV) is REALLY influencing the manufacturing, distribution, flow, supply, etc of ammo and components.

Go talk to your local gun store owners, they can explain it to you.

I'm sure the ammo manufactors are wooking day and night to meet their orders, but you are right demand is outstripping avaible supply. When will it end, when there are no more wars and we are at peace again.

Since I have been reloading for over 7 years, ammo is not a concern for me (except 22 LR), I am more concerned about water, bread, meats, milk and fuel.

But that's just me.
Jim

 

[walt501]

I don't know how long this period of shortage is going to last, but I am not optimistic that it will end soon. What I do wonder is why the marketplace isn't responding to the shortages. Outside suppliers from around the world should be jumping into our market to take advantage of the current demand, but I wonder if importation rules are hindering them doing so. One area where gun friendly congressmen could actually help is by holding hearings on speeding the importation of additional supply which I believe is the fastest way to end this shortage, because once product returns to retailers shelves the panic will subside.

 

[AABEN]

It took about 3 years the first time. So I am going with 3 years.

 

[Geneseo1911]

you don't make a fortune and you shoot tens of thousands of rounds a year

That does not compute.

Anyway, after the '08 election, it took about six months for stock to return to the shelves, and about 1.5 years for prices to return to where they were. I think we will see a similar pattern this time.

 

[Buzznrose]

That we agree on, only time will tell. How many years did we have the F-117 operational before the public was told (I think it was 5 years)?

I can understand if the ammo is needed for the Army, but rumors are that we will need it for North Korea soon, if your under 35 look forward to the draft being reinstated. People in 1934 did not believe that there would be another world war, or that Pearl Harbor would ever be attacked, I guess they were wrong.

Jim

The majority of any ammo needed for a new Korean war is already in place in the Pacific, and has been for many years.

 

[OilyPablo]

Go talk to your local gun store owners, they can explain it to you.

Jim

I have spoke with many owners and I have two friends who are FFL's. They don't really shed any new light on things. Gun distribution to WA state is spotty and chaotic. Ammo is a bit better, but the trucks loads are not exactly arriving as they fill the rest of the nation. But mostly they say stuff like this:

http://www.hornady.com/support/availability

 

[tarosean]

People are buying it up.. However, when I go to the ranges they are pretty desolate.

 

[ID-shooting]

We buy but have not done much shooting.

We had "plenty" before. We have "PLENTY" now. Got it up to around 1k for each centerfire and just this morning picked up enough 22lr to hit 3k. We are not every weekend shooters, going today to shoot some but only enough to keep that 1k count.