the Shortage - when do you think it will end?

[Killian]

Let's get real, Federal makes 4 MILLION rounds a day of 22 LR. You really think that the horders and shooters are purchasing this all up???

4,000,000 rounds divided by 50 rounds per box. 80,000 boxes.
80,000 boxes divided by 50 states in the United States. 1600 per state per day.
1600 divided by 3, the number of boxes Walmart allows you to buy at one time (Walmart used as an example) eqauls 533.33 people buying .22 ammo in your state per day.

I live in Mississippi. Population around 2.5 million. Gun ownership is reckoned to be around 57% here, which is high compared to a national average. .22 is a very popular gun, so I'll say 60% of these 57% own a .22. 2.5 million times 57% is 1,425,000 times 60% is 855,000 possible .22 owning citizens of the great state of Mississippi (fires celebratory gun in the air at arithmetic usage).

Figure a nice low number of "hoarders" and "panic driven" (perhaps now we should relabel them as "far sighted") forgot to stockpile 3 foreign-invasions worth of ammo, like 10% of the 855,000 (the truth is, probably more like 40% or higher did not have an active stockpile, only buying ammo when they wanted to hunt or visit the range..but I'll use 10% as a nicely illustratively low number).

85,500 people in Mississippi would thus be frantically trying to purchase .22 as it becomes available. At the rate of 533 people per day being supplied, to satisfy the demands of these 85,500 Mississippi residents, it would take 160 days. Or roughly 5 months.

Some things to consider. 1) Mississippi is a very low population state. Some of you live in states were one CITY may be 2.5 million people....but the same 533 people per day are being satisfied in your state. If you have a state with a population of 10 million, then multiple 160 days times 4 to figure out how long it could take to satisfy the demand for THREE boxes of .22, per person demanding, per state. 2) I deliberately kept my figures low in terms of calculating percentages. .22 firearms in Mississippi? It's probably not 60% of gun owning residents having one. Probably more like 90%. And the figure of only 10% of .22 owners looking for ammo right now at 10%? That's a crazy small number. I'd say almost every .22 owner is looking for ammo right now...even if they've got a million rounds they wouldn't pass it buy if they saw it on the shelf.
3)I had noticed even before this current panic that ammo was never particularly easy to find for about the last 2 or 3 years. My Walmart was often understocked or completely out of ammo. That was in "normal" times.

So yes, I think this panic could go on for quite a while.

 

[kgpcr]

Keep in mind there is also CCI, Winchester,Reminton, PMC, Wolf and others making .22lr as well. I just hope they start catching up soon.

 

[Killian]

Keep in mind there is also CCI, Winchester,Reminton, PMC, Wolf and others making .22lr as well. I just hope they start catching up soon.

Yes, but also keep in mind that if we multiply the rate of 4 million rounds per day by those 5 companies you mentioned, it would equal 20 million rounds per day. In 50 round boxes (does anyone buy 50 round boxes when they can buy 550?) that's 400,000 boxes per day (or 36363 boxes of 550). Divided by 50 states. 8000 boxes per state per day (or 727 boxes of 550). Divided by 3 boxes yadda yadda Walmart. 2666 boxes of 50 per person per day (242 boxes of 550). Even in my poorly populated state of 2.5 million, that still equals 31 days before everyone gets ammo. (or 351 days if everyone buys 3 of the 550 round bricks...which right now wouldn't surprise me a bit if every did exactly that).

Since I basically repeated my last post, and I hate repeating myself, I'll make a new estimate. Nationally there are 300 million people. They say about 80 million gun owners. Figure 8 million .22 owners looking for ammo. At 3 Walmart boxes a day, 133,333 people get ammo per day. (50 round boxes...or 150 rounds...think people would be satisfied with that amount?) To get 8 million people 150 rounds would take 60 days. To get 3 bricks of 550 rounds to 8 million people would take 660 days if you do it at 20 million rounds per day.

Edit: Possible issues that could stretch this out further. We don't know that these companies DO make 4 million a day. They may make far fewer. We don't know if they make that many every day, or if they take Sunday's off. Without knowing exact figures on demand versus production, this is all just speculation on my part.....but I did try to speculate on the low side with all my figures in an effort to be realistic.

 

[orionengnr]

4,000,000 rounds divided by 50 rounds per box. 80,000 boxes.

More to the point:
4,000,000 rounds divided by 550 rounds per box...7,272 boxes per day.
Now divided by an estimated 80 million gun owners...equals .00009 box per day. Round it up to .001. That is one box for every gun owner...every one thousand days.

So, each of us gets to buy a 550 round box once every three years. Does that help put this in perspective?

 

[tuj]

Hornady released a statement that only something like 5% of their sales were to LEO/Gov't agencies. So I think it's the hoarders buying more than they stockpiled before. But eventually the manufactures should catch up; after-all there is an open arbitrage when .223 is selling over $1/round on GB. You'd think the ammo manufacturers would be all over this.

 

[kgpcr]

TUJ
I would think so as well. I hope they start inporting the heck out of .223 from Tula and Wolf so that should help a bit. Right now its like trying to fill in a black hole. I am happy i have enough compnenets to keep me going for quite a while. I have some 8lb jugs of powder i have had for 10+ years and primers about the same.

 

[beatledog7]

We as shooters can end it at any time by deciding we don't need anything right now and ceasing our purchasing.

Stocks will build up based on ramp-ups in production that are bound to be already in place. In a few months we could have things back to more or less normal in terms of supply. Prices will stabilize, perhaps a bit higher than before, but only as much as we support with our buying.

 

[bri]

...Those EOs that the president signed, you though they were for bans, I think they were for purchases. Hay, a billion dollars here and a billion dollars there buys a lot of ammo. If they can't stop you from buying guns, they may as well try stopping you from having ammo. That's a lot easier (and cheaper) than getting a AWB passed.

Seriously?

This garbage just has to stop. The current ammo situation isnt a .gov conspiracy, it's supply and demand. Simple as that.

Posting comments like this only adds to the perception of the gun "nut" that so many on the other side like to poke fun at.

I'm going to keep saying this until I get my wish... I want the old THR back.

 

[joeschmoe]

Tin Foil Thread check list;


-Secret Executive Orders = Check
-Government induced panic buying = Check
-New war coming soon = Check
-Draft scare = Check
-Government buying ammo to cause shortage = Check
-Area 51 reference = Check
-LGS rumors as a reference source = Check
-Failure to understand basic supply vs demand = Check

Tin Foil Thread Checklist Complete.

 

[OilyPablo]

How about a National Don't Buy Ammo week?

 

[Killian]

How about a National Don't Buy Ammo week?

You could try to promote it. Only thing is, while all of us would be refraining, some joker would run down to Walmart and buy MY ammo that I was refraining from buying.

 

[foxs]

Starting to see a lot for guns coming in at the LGS. 25 ar 15's in stock, Glocks coming in,xds coming in.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Folks you frogot one simple little fact. The ammo selbed are bare nationwide. Wharehouses are empth. Major retailers are empty. The LGS is empty. The 5 million nrw shootets are starting from scratch. The rest of us are trying to add to what e have.

This time the anti's are not going away.

 

[beatledog7]

Only thing is, while all of us would be refraining, some joker would run down to Walmart and buy MY ammo that I was refraining from buying.

That's why boycotts don't work. ThEy sound good (as I implied in post 32), but if a few people roll in hot on the supply as it begins to build, we're back to square one.

 

[kgpcr]

I would like to see the importers kick it in to hight gear with lots of .223,
9mm and 22lr hitting the shores. it sure would help a bit if that were to happen.