V4Vendetta
member
"I can't defend myself against intruders with gold or diamonds, let alone kill food with it."
Gold is heavy. You could throw it at someone.
Gold is heavy. You could throw it at someone.
To invest in Silver Bullion or Firearms?
- Thread starter LoadAmmo
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Malone LaVeigh
Member
Since this is turning into a SHTF thread, here's my .000555 oz:
You CAN lose in real purchasing power by investing in metals. Anyone who put their life savings in gold or silver 25 years ago would just now be breaking even in inflated dollars, which means they would have lost big time in purchasing power. I am almost as pessimistic in the long run as Nem, but market forces are still real and powerful.
I think it's a good idea to have a portion of your assets in physical metals and other good. They are a hedge against extreme dollar devaluation, not investments. Just like your house, assuming you didn't speculate and go heavily into debt expecting the bubble to continue to expand forever. Guns also happen to be a pretty good hedge, but are not very liquid.
I think in general, 1-2% of one's total wealth in metals in a safe-deposit box or your gun safe is a good idea. That's my long-term target, enough to forget about and help me sleep at night. With all of the current macro forces threatening the dollar, if I have time I'll probably ratchet up to 5%. But be ready to sell back down to the base % if there's a big run-up and it still looks like civilization will survive a while longer.
On the original post, I read that article by Edgar Steele some time back and it is one of the things that got me thinking about investing in metals. He has a more recent piece out that is even better:
http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/columns/whirly.htm
It really gives me a sick feeling to recommend him, because most of his views are pretty sick. But I figure you're all adults and can seperate the wheat from the chaff.
You CAN lose in real purchasing power by investing in metals. Anyone who put their life savings in gold or silver 25 years ago would just now be breaking even in inflated dollars, which means they would have lost big time in purchasing power. I am almost as pessimistic in the long run as Nem, but market forces are still real and powerful.
I think it's a good idea to have a portion of your assets in physical metals and other good. They are a hedge against extreme dollar devaluation, not investments. Just like your house, assuming you didn't speculate and go heavily into debt expecting the bubble to continue to expand forever. Guns also happen to be a pretty good hedge, but are not very liquid.
I think in general, 1-2% of one's total wealth in metals in a safe-deposit box or your gun safe is a good idea. That's my long-term target, enough to forget about and help me sleep at night. With all of the current macro forces threatening the dollar, if I have time I'll probably ratchet up to 5%. But be ready to sell back down to the base % if there's a big run-up and it still looks like civilization will survive a while longer.
On the original post, I read that article by Edgar Steele some time back and it is one of the things that got me thinking about investing in metals. He has a more recent piece out that is even better:
http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/columns/whirly.htm
It really gives me a sick feeling to recommend him, because most of his views are pretty sick. But I figure you're all adults and can seperate the wheat from the chaff.
R127
Member
The problem with the "25 years ago" argument is that it really was a fluke. A Texas billionaire conspired with oil sheiks to corner the market on silver. There is no Texan or other billionaire currently cornering the market, these prices are what they are.
There is a caveat, Hunt still holds perhaps as much as 100 million ounces, half of that probably in Switzerland. Warren Buffet holds around an equal ammount. If they were to both decide to dump their silver there would be twice as much on the market and it would take a couple years for that to be consumed, meaning it'd be a good time to buy. Since neither Buffet nor Hunt have sold yet, I'm guessing they are in it for the long haul.
If you bought all your silver or gold during the market cornering attempt and held it since then, you're right, you didn't do too good. It probably wasn't a very logical action to take, but if you thought Hunt was really going to be able to pull it off I could imagine why you might think that was a good idea at the time. However, as I said above that does not relate to the current situation. If somebody did try to corner the market, wait for the spike and take proffit, when it's over buy it back at real market value.
There is every reason for gold and silver to keep climbing, from inflation to national currencies continuing to default. Every fiat currency in the history of the world devalues to zero. That may or may not happen to the US in the next ten years, as the initial post was asking, but it will eventually. In the last 100 years the dollar has lost 98% of its value. That's bad. If you consistently saved income above operating costs and a discretionary allowance in gold or silver, over your life your savings would hold rather than lose value and in a couple generations of such savings your family would be filthy rich. If you're a savvy stock investor you can probably do that on paper, too, but you need to beat 10-15% a year to break even. Energy stocks might do it.
Anyway, Japan just had big $300 billion problem on their market. I would not be suprised to see increased Japanese interest in buying gold this week. With 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians out there, both making more money than ever before, both coming from cultures that like to own gold, both being allowed to own it, there is plenty of demand and I have no doubts the next ten years will be good for precious metals.
I own guns, but haven't as yet invested in them, that is to say bought and put back guns in the hopes of their value increasing. I may someday. If I were to do that I would buy pistols and semi-auto "assault rifles" as that is where the demand, and the bans, will be. I wouldn't put money into full auto because it is a false market created by a Federal ban. If pro-machinegun Alito gets on the supreme court we may someday see a reversal of the no new machineguns order and then prices will plummet overnight. If it is TEOTWAWKI and nobody cares about laws, there will be machineguns a-plenty. Any semi auto can be converted to full auto in any number of ways, including just plain ol' bump firing. There may be a very real push to get the "smartguns" and integral trigger locks on new guns coming into the market. I would pay a bit extra for a non-pc gun.
There is a caveat, Hunt still holds perhaps as much as 100 million ounces, half of that probably in Switzerland. Warren Buffet holds around an equal ammount. If they were to both decide to dump their silver there would be twice as much on the market and it would take a couple years for that to be consumed, meaning it'd be a good time to buy. Since neither Buffet nor Hunt have sold yet, I'm guessing they are in it for the long haul.
If you bought all your silver or gold during the market cornering attempt and held it since then, you're right, you didn't do too good. It probably wasn't a very logical action to take, but if you thought Hunt was really going to be able to pull it off I could imagine why you might think that was a good idea at the time. However, as I said above that does not relate to the current situation. If somebody did try to corner the market, wait for the spike and take proffit, when it's over buy it back at real market value.
There is every reason for gold and silver to keep climbing, from inflation to national currencies continuing to default. Every fiat currency in the history of the world devalues to zero. That may or may not happen to the US in the next ten years, as the initial post was asking, but it will eventually. In the last 100 years the dollar has lost 98% of its value. That's bad. If you consistently saved income above operating costs and a discretionary allowance in gold or silver, over your life your savings would hold rather than lose value and in a couple generations of such savings your family would be filthy rich. If you're a savvy stock investor you can probably do that on paper, too, but you need to beat 10-15% a year to break even. Energy stocks might do it.
Anyway, Japan just had big $300 billion problem on their market. I would not be suprised to see increased Japanese interest in buying gold this week. With 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians out there, both making more money than ever before, both coming from cultures that like to own gold, both being allowed to own it, there is plenty of demand and I have no doubts the next ten years will be good for precious metals.
I own guns, but haven't as yet invested in them, that is to say bought and put back guns in the hopes of their value increasing. I may someday. If I were to do that I would buy pistols and semi-auto "assault rifles" as that is where the demand, and the bans, will be. I wouldn't put money into full auto because it is a false market created by a Federal ban. If pro-machinegun Alito gets on the supreme court we may someday see a reversal of the no new machineguns order and then prices will plummet overnight. If it is TEOTWAWKI and nobody cares about laws, there will be machineguns a-plenty. Any semi auto can be converted to full auto in any number of ways, including just plain ol' bump firing. There may be a very real push to get the "smartguns" and integral trigger locks on new guns coming into the market. I would pay a bit extra for a non-pc gun.
Father Knows Best
Member
telomerase said:
My dad works at a gun shop that specializes in NFA stuff, and has a fairly wealthy clientele. He says that lots of guys with the money are buying .50BMG's right now just for speculation -- betting that they will be banned and prices will rise.
I don't see that as being a smart strategy. Sure, there will be a temporary spike in prices if new .50's are banned, or added to the NFA, but it will be only temporary. The problem is the demand side of the equation. .50BMG's are inherently of limited demand. With so few places to shoot them, and high expense of doing so, the market is pretty small. The don't have the appeal of collectibles in most cases, nor the movie-inspired desire that machine guns have (for the pure rock and roll fun of it). With lots of them being bought and put away without being fired, I expect there to be plenty of sellers even if a ban does happen. The one exception may be the Barrett M82A1. It was (one of?) the first, and it is a civvie version of a U.S. military rifle, which gives it historical/collector interest. Of course, it's also one of the most expensive of the current .50 BMG options.
garyk/nm said:
Again, I disagree. Prices increase when demand exceeds supply. I don't see the demand for Yugo SKS's increasing significantly. If prices go up even a little with the end of importation, lots of people who bought them at $80-120 each will bring them out of their closets and put them back on the market. The supply will always be there. There are literally thousands of models of firearms no longer available that are worth no more today (and in many cases less) than when they were last made or imported, just because demand in practically non-existent.
DesertEagle613
Member
- Joined
- May 20, 2004
- Messages
- 221
A few quick points:
Precious metals have no more "intrinsic" value than does fiat money, with the exception of their use in electronics and the like. If you are looking for intrinsic value, think about physical infrastructure.
In particular, you will always need electricity. My take on things is that the best TEOTWAWKI investment, aside from guns, is solar power. It generates an endless supply of electricity, without needing any input other than free sunlight.
Yes, it's still a bit expensive. But the cost is comparable to investing in bonds; and either the price of power will go up and make your investment worth a lot more, or it will go down, in which case society will still be working pretty well.
And as someone mentioned earlier in the thread, both guns and metals just sit there unless the right circumstances come about. Otherwise, they represent inert money. Solar tech, on the other hand, is always yielding power. (You do have to worry about equipment failures, but so does everybody else for one reason or another.)
Precious metals have no more "intrinsic" value than does fiat money, with the exception of their use in electronics and the like. If you are looking for intrinsic value, think about physical infrastructure.
In particular, you will always need electricity. My take on things is that the best TEOTWAWKI investment, aside from guns, is solar power. It generates an endless supply of electricity, without needing any input other than free sunlight.
Yes, it's still a bit expensive. But the cost is comparable to investing in bonds; and either the price of power will go up and make your investment worth a lot more, or it will go down, in which case society will still be working pretty well.
And as someone mentioned earlier in the thread, both guns and metals just sit there unless the right circumstances come about. Otherwise, they represent inert money. Solar tech, on the other hand, is always yielding power. (You do have to worry about equipment failures, but so does everybody else for one reason or another.)
Coltdriver
Member
I would suggest buying silver coins, US or Canadian. Get them in what ever quantities you can afford.
Then get at least enought guns and ammo to defend your horde later.
I would recommend against silver bullion.
Coins can be traded later for other things of value like land or food.
Bullion may not be so liquid.
Then get at least enought guns and ammo to defend your horde later.
I would recommend against silver bullion.
Coins can be traded later for other things of value like land or food.
Bullion may not be so liquid.
Malone LaVeigh
Member
pharmer
Member
Buy guns. I bought an Engelhard 100 oz .999 silver bar 25 years ago for $760 (with the fees and tax). Silver is 9.20 now. Smaller than a brick and about as much fun. Sits in back of the safe. Had it out maybe 2 years ago to show someone. "Wow a black brick". Wish I'd bought S&W model 27's in all the barrel lengths instead. More fun and a much better investment. Joe
benEzra
Moderator Emeritus
Except there is one important difference between fiat money and precious metals--the government can't create precious metals out of thin air in order to pay its debts, hence precious metals can't be instantly devalued by government decision due to the relatively fixed supply.
Whether or not one believes that is a likely scenario is another matter, but that is the one difference between metals (or any other tangible asset of limited availability) and fiat currency.
O.F.Fascist
Member
both...
make plenty of silver bullets.
make plenty of silver bullets.
LoadAmmo
Member
Anybody else have input?
What firearms would be worth investing in versus Silver?
What firearms would be worth investing in versus Silver?
jeff-10
Member
Problem with investing in firearms is that it is somewhat diffcult and can be costly to liquidate. Buying silver futures or something like that can all be done electronically.
answerguy
Member
Lee Lapin said:
So how is it that the prices of gold and silver fluctuate against each other?
telomerase
Member
Very good point. If you want to invest in metal through your IRA instead of by buying a safe, you can buy the ETF "GLD" on the NYSE.
Probably best to do both, given the fact that Bush has beat LBJ for increases in spending. Only FDR stands between him and the record, and he still has time....
Malone LaVeigh
Member
A lot of the overall inflation in price of PMs can probably be accounted for by dollar devaluation. The specific prices are due to the fact that they are traded in open exchanges.answerguy said:
Sir Aardvark
Member
The best deal I ever made on a firearm was when I sold my "Police Sales Sample" Colt CAR-15 Government Carbine .223 for $1,500.00 during the crazy times preceding the Brady Bill Assault Weapon ban (around 1994, or so).
I purchased it from Keisler's Police supply for about $600.00. I felt a little guilty about selling it for that much, but it was the going market rate.
So... unless Congress is going to outlaw the guns that you purchased for an investment, thus driving up the price, you'll probably find that silver is a better option than guns for an investment.
There are SO MANY OTHER THINGS that you can make more money on than guns that you should really think twice before sinking any money into firearms as an investment.
I purchased it from Keisler's Police supply for about $600.00. I felt a little guilty about selling it for that much, but it was the going market rate.
So... unless Congress is going to outlaw the guns that you purchased for an investment, thus driving up the price, you'll probably find that silver is a better option than guns for an investment.
There are SO MANY OTHER THINGS that you can make more money on than guns that you should really think twice before sinking any money into firearms as an investment.
benEzra
Moderator Emeritus
Metals are not going up tremendously in value, but they are going up in price. That's because the value of a dollar is decreasing by several percent per year.
Metals are a hedge to prevent one from losing value over a long-term currency depreciation. If you buy during a trough, you can get some real appreciation, but most people buy them as a hedge against inflation/devaluation rather than as an income asset.
walw
Member
As for as NEW guns worth investing in, sounds like the civilian FN P90's won't be around for long.
Topgun
member
A lot of misinformation so far.
Some is correct. I was a dealer until retiring in 2003. I sold silver for $50 per oz and for $4 per oz and everything in between.
1. The "Hunts" did nothing wrong. The CBOT changed the rules on them because they owned more contracts than could be delivered and there was a definite possiblity of a financial crisis, so the GOVERNMENT stepped in and made a legal act (buying silver) an....illegal act. Sound familiar?
2. The GLD ETF should be researched thoroughly. Read the delivery rules. It may be the best way for a small amount like $1000 to play...gold.
3. Recognized silver bars and one ounce medallions trade REGULARLY with no need for assay or anything else. Unmarked bars will have to be assayed.
4. Dealers are too smart to offer $5.25 for silver when the market is $10. They WANT to buy as they are selling at 10 and want to buy as much as they can. As markets heat up, the "spreads" ....DO.... widen. At $50 if I remember right, it was like $49.80 buy and $54.00 sell on small quantities. $1000 is a small quantity.
5. A silver ETF is "in the works" should it be allowed to open, silver will rocket in price. The hitch is that the Silver Users Assn. is fighting the application tooth and nail. Users don't want the price higher.
6. Guns are an AWFUL speculation (at this time) Too much adverse paperwork, pending legislation, etc. to be able to count on knowing what to expect in a few years. Metals are less likely to be affected by laws. (And if they are, they can be sold ANYWHERE for the local currency)
7. Muscle cars are on my SELL list. The owners are aging and the foreign buyers are rethinking the future of large collectibles and the storage required.
8. Gold is the ultimate aim for a "stash." Silver is just a way to get more gold. Gold spreads are narrower than silver because the liquidity of gold is SUPERB. Silver is EXCELLENT, but pales in comparison to gold. Also silver is an industrial metal and could be adversely affected by a recession which will be announced by summer at the latest.
9. The USA is in debt. If a guy wanted to CHARGE a gun and had Uncle Sam's financial statement, he would be laughed at. Metals insure against a country going broke, losing jobs, and fighting an unwinnable and expensive war.
That's about it.
Some is correct. I was a dealer until retiring in 2003. I sold silver for $50 per oz and for $4 per oz and everything in between.
1. The "Hunts" did nothing wrong. The CBOT changed the rules on them because they owned more contracts than could be delivered and there was a definite possiblity of a financial crisis, so the GOVERNMENT stepped in and made a legal act (buying silver) an....illegal act. Sound familiar?
2. The GLD ETF should be researched thoroughly. Read the delivery rules. It may be the best way for a small amount like $1000 to play...gold.
3. Recognized silver bars and one ounce medallions trade REGULARLY with no need for assay or anything else. Unmarked bars will have to be assayed.
4. Dealers are too smart to offer $5.25 for silver when the market is $10. They WANT to buy as they are selling at 10 and want to buy as much as they can. As markets heat up, the "spreads" ....DO.... widen. At $50 if I remember right, it was like $49.80 buy and $54.00 sell on small quantities. $1000 is a small quantity.
5. A silver ETF is "in the works" should it be allowed to open, silver will rocket in price. The hitch is that the Silver Users Assn. is fighting the application tooth and nail. Users don't want the price higher.
6. Guns are an AWFUL speculation (at this time) Too much adverse paperwork, pending legislation, etc. to be able to count on knowing what to expect in a few years. Metals are less likely to be affected by laws. (And if they are, they can be sold ANYWHERE for the local currency)
7. Muscle cars are on my SELL list. The owners are aging and the foreign buyers are rethinking the future of large collectibles and the storage required.
8. Gold is the ultimate aim for a "stash." Silver is just a way to get more gold. Gold spreads are narrower than silver because the liquidity of gold is SUPERB. Silver is EXCELLENT, but pales in comparison to gold. Also silver is an industrial metal and could be adversely affected by a recession which will be announced by summer at the latest.
9. The USA is in debt. If a guy wanted to CHARGE a gun and had Uncle Sam's financial statement, he would be laughed at. Metals insure against a country going broke, losing jobs, and fighting an unwinnable and expensive war.
That's about it.
Topgun
member
Almost forgot. Don't get hung up on price. EVERYONE should own some precious metal. If you have NONE, then it is a buy today. If you are thinking of adding, wait a bit for a direction and see if it goes up or down say 7% from current level and make up your mind to buy some at that point.
Average in if you are starting small.
$1000 in silver at 8 or 10 is not a huge difference. It is if you are trading it on the exchange and are subject to a margin call, but for a private stash, it really won't matter much when the TRUE "state of the nation" is discovered.
Average in if you are starting small.
$1000 in silver at 8 or 10 is not a huge difference. It is if you are trading it on the exchange and are subject to a margin call, but for a private stash, it really won't matter much when the TRUE "state of the nation" is discovered.
Putting Silver in a sock
Makes a great blackjack..
Seriously.. tho, take my wife please..
www.Golddealer.com Good prices, dependable service. So you leave a trail..... so do my .308s when they leave the mothership..
Makes a great blackjack..
Seriously.. tho, take my wife please..
www.Golddealer.com Good prices, dependable service. So you leave a trail..... so do my .308s when they leave the mothership..
Nathanael_Greene
Member
Interesting...for the last two months at least, silver seems like it would've been a better investment than firearms.
The commodity market sure is acting strangely. Probably not a bad idea to have some firearms *and* some precious metals.
The commodity market sure is acting strangely. Probably not a bad idea to have some firearms *and* some precious metals.
Well, something is afoot:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/h6/discm3.htm
Release Date: November 10, 2005, revised March 9, 2006
Release dates | Historical data | About
----------------------------------------------------------
Discontinuance of M3
On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.
Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for commercial banks).
M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.
[END]
So what precisely did the M3 data contain that they suddenly decide after all these years that we don't need to know any more?
Right now, I'd say buy all the guns, bullets and beans you can afford - buy as much gold and silver as you can afford while you are at it.
----------------------------------------------
http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org
http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/h6/discm3.htm
Release Date: November 10, 2005, revised March 9, 2006
Release dates | Historical data | About
----------------------------------------------------------
Discontinuance of M3
On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.
Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for commercial banks).
M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.
[END]
So what precisely did the M3 data contain that they suddenly decide after all these years that we don't need to know any more?
Right now, I'd say buy all the guns, bullets and beans you can afford - buy as much gold and silver as you can afford while you are at it.
----------------------------------------------
http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org
Fire4Effect
Member
Hmmmm... Interesting thread.... If your gonna invest in metals, go for Titanium... at least if the economy crashes you can make guns and body armor with it.... that's got to be worth something...
I suspect one would need a serious machine shop and some solid metalworking skills, with a lot of experience, in order to do anything with titanium. More trouble than it's worth in that circumstance.
I've avoided commodities of all kinds in the past, but given the serious structural problems I see emerging, I wonder if maybe tangible assets are perhaps not such a bad idea after all.
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