Tomorrow's Rare and Collectible
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Wow, no offense but there is so much wrong with that statement. Precious medals are only valuable because they are rare. There are some scientist in Russia that are developing a way to make diamonds in a lab that could totally turn the diamond industry upside down. Not synthetic diamonds. Real diamonds. No way to tell the difference in the made ones and the mined ones. Market could get saturated and diamonds not worth much anymore.
You say baseball cards are just made out if paper. So is the constitution, old Egyptian scrolls, historic documents, original text of great writers and thinkers. Is it foolish to think they are not valuable? Your materials and paper argument doesn't hold water.
It is not the materials, it is the rarity and the market's willing to buy it. The historic significance plays a big part in the willingness to buy it. It is laughable to call Glocks a fad. They are arguably the most historically significant firearm ever made. If in a couple hundred years there are not many left, you better believe they will be valuable
Also as pointed out above. Gold is not the great investment you make it out to be
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Cosmoline
Member
That's a fair point. Firearms last centuries, but ammo is constantly being used up. As we've seen, even slight interruptions at the handful of factories making the components can have dramatic ripple effects. Forget a law banning AR's--what about a law taxing the ammo makers out of business?
Cosmoline
Member
This is the most historically significant firearm ever made:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebel_Model_1886_rifle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebel_Model_1886_rifle
An argument can be made. Let me be clear I am not talking about from an engineering standpoint. I am talking about from a cultural standpoint. This thread is talking about pure monetary value and collectibility. Historically significant from a collectable standpoint means how society as a whole (or a group of people collecting) views things. History seems to remember what society remembers.
Glock has made a huge impact on the industry and the way virtually all guns are marketed and produced. I know HK was the first. And truth be told, I don't much like glocks. I like DA/SA hammer fired guns. But they are up at the top on impact and affect in the industry. That makes them very historically significant. Other guns changed the industry before Glock, but Glock did it, during a time when communication allowed it to make a huge impression on society.
How many other guns have become so well known by name and looks? Much like Coke, everyone knows the term Glock. It's impact on the whole industry is pretty remarkable. Now of course, there are a billion of them floating around, but if (like the original post said) way in the future there were not many left, then what do you think the historic value of one would be?
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Cosmoline
Member
Colt, Winchester, Mauser, Brown Bess, etc etc. Gaston Glock was innovative and the pistol made a big splash, but he was not the first to use aggressive marketing nor even the most successful. As far as innovation, if you think high cap wondernines were a big deal, imagine going from a front stuffer caplock to a sixgun practically overnight. Or from a muzzleloading rifle to a Winchester repeater. The cultural impact of these firearms was monumental. They reshaped national boundaries. Glock reshaped some holsters.
tennjed you completely missed my entire point. at no point did I say gold was the greatest investment and that glocks or ancient documents aren't worth anything. you and 45 auto are getting something completely different out of what my whole point was. glocks are not like ancient artifacts... ancient is very old and rare... glocks are made today and anyone can go to the gun shop and buy one. glocks wont be super valuable in our lifetimes. unless you think a few hundered dollars is super valuable. I know you or some one else will just quote me again and try to bash on something I said.
CountryUgly
Member
Since the OP was asking about "current production" I'll have to say the "Scorpion" variations of the Sig line up will only climb. The H&K USP and MP5 could be there. FNH is putting out a couple of pistols and rifles right now that I could clearly see being cash cows in the future. My dark horse is the Kel-Tec PMR30.
Ouija Boards, Lava Lamps, Rubik's Cubes were extremely popular in pop culture at one time too.. Doesn't make them valuable today.
Even the "collectable" Glocks are really not worth much more than your average one. will that change when we are ashes? No telling.
But you said because of what they were made out of? It doesn't have to be ancient. Do you not think that original paper writings of Faulkner and Hemingway are collectible and valuable? You premise was on the material they were made from, which (with all due respect) is unfounded
Not sure any if them are as recognizable as Glock outside of the gun community. Colt's name would be up there, but not the others.
certain guns have collector value just like muscle car era cars like the 70 hemi cuda or the 69 SS Camaro. Is a 75 Camaro a collector? no its not. It may be worth a few thousand in good condition but its no collector. same with say a 98 Camaro, it wont be a collector. glocks are like the 98 Camaro. now sure it might be worth something in 500 years but we wont be around in 500 years. that's my point
Willie Sutton
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Value is based on a calculus of rarity and desirability that is almost impossible to describe. There are way too many subjective variables in the matrix to really be able to predict in advance what will be valuable in the future.
But, let me try a few ideas and see how they fly. This is based on my own 40 years or so of collecting, and doing pretty well financially with my choices.
First, things that are available new in quantity are not collectable.
Second, "Collectables" (like whatever engraved .45 du jour that some "historical society" is flogging in the magazines this month) are not collectable.
Third, low quality mass produced stuff is not collectable. Yes I know there are guys collecting early 1900's Iver Johnson revolvers... but... <sigh>... there's no value there and there never will be.
Leaving several more categories:
1: Things made illegal in retrospect for future, and which are grandfathered for ownership today. G Series FAL's, Open Bolt "Anythings", and registered pre-86 machine guns come to mind. Fixed or diminishing quantities and increased number of people wanting them = prices. Remember that laws change and your $10,000 maching gun can be made valueless by legislative fiat. One unintended consequence of re-opening the NFA for new machine guns would be an immediate devaluation of existing collections, for example, not that this is likely.
2: Arms produced in large quantities but then USED HARD IN A HISTORICAL EVENT THAT CAPTURES THE IMAGINATION, because at the time of original use they were utility tools and were consumed and used up without thinking of future preservation. Colt percussion revolvers come to mind as a perfect example. They were used hard in the civil war, were well worn by use, and then set aside as obsolete. Scrapped, discarded, abused, left to rust, as havuing no value. 150 years later we have high demand for them. 1903 Springfields and 1917 Enfields, Garands, original black powder Winchesters of the old west, etc. Mausers, etc., especially martial arms of all sorts.
3: Items of exquisite construction and beauty made of walnut and polished steel. Things like beautifully finished Winchesters, Colts, English Double Rifles, FN-49's, etc. No matter if civil or military, what attracts us to these is the handwork involved in the manufacture. Essentially we pay for the labor to produce a level of quality that cannot be duplicated any other way using automation. My 1906 John Wilkes .450 NE Double Rifle will always appreciate in value, for example.
4: Prototypes and one of a kind, or products of a visionary nature that were never produced in quantity. I guess as soon as the Keltec SUB-2000 is dropped from the catalog that this will be the niche they fit into. Gyrojets, Dardicks, Bren-10's, etc. This is the "ahead of the curve" collectable area. My own collection includes a variety of Belgian black powder Colt clones dating from the 1960's, known as the Centaure's. These were the first ever quality black powder replicas and were both high quality and limited production. The business venture was a failure, the products are of high quality. They sell now for more than some genuine Colts. So think out of the box. Right now "original' Carbon 15's made by Pro Ordinance are cheap, and they are VERY interesting are are not common. Buy one.. you'll thank me later.
5: Items ascribed to a particular person of fame, IE: A pistol engraved as the property of person "XX" who is well known one reason or another. Eric Chings original Scout Rifle built at Gunsite, etc.
6: Originals of what later became common. Original Colt triagular forearm AR-15's, original Belgian FN FAL's, Israeli made (not Century) Galils, Valmet AK's of all sorts (M-76's, etc), MARS CETME's., etc. Very early examples of many "common" designs are desirable.
This is the framework. I do not see much produced these days fitting into the mold, but there are a load of things produced within the last 20 years that are cheap now and appreciating. I know what I am buying, and when I have all of them I'll tell ya what they are ... ;-)
Willie
.
But, let me try a few ideas and see how they fly. This is based on my own 40 years or so of collecting, and doing pretty well financially with my choices.
First, things that are available new in quantity are not collectable.
Second, "Collectables" (like whatever engraved .45 du jour that some "historical society" is flogging in the magazines this month) are not collectable.
Third, low quality mass produced stuff is not collectable. Yes I know there are guys collecting early 1900's Iver Johnson revolvers... but... <sigh>... there's no value there and there never will be.
Leaving several more categories:
1: Things made illegal in retrospect for future, and which are grandfathered for ownership today. G Series FAL's, Open Bolt "Anythings", and registered pre-86 machine guns come to mind. Fixed or diminishing quantities and increased number of people wanting them = prices. Remember that laws change and your $10,000 maching gun can be made valueless by legislative fiat. One unintended consequence of re-opening the NFA for new machine guns would be an immediate devaluation of existing collections, for example, not that this is likely.
2: Arms produced in large quantities but then USED HARD IN A HISTORICAL EVENT THAT CAPTURES THE IMAGINATION, because at the time of original use they were utility tools and were consumed and used up without thinking of future preservation. Colt percussion revolvers come to mind as a perfect example. They were used hard in the civil war, were well worn by use, and then set aside as obsolete. Scrapped, discarded, abused, left to rust, as havuing no value. 150 years later we have high demand for them. 1903 Springfields and 1917 Enfields, Garands, original black powder Winchesters of the old west, etc. Mausers, etc., especially martial arms of all sorts.
3: Items of exquisite construction and beauty made of walnut and polished steel. Things like beautifully finished Winchesters, Colts, English Double Rifles, FN-49's, etc. No matter if civil or military, what attracts us to these is the handwork involved in the manufacture. Essentially we pay for the labor to produce a level of quality that cannot be duplicated any other way using automation. My 1906 John Wilkes .450 NE Double Rifle will always appreciate in value, for example.
4: Prototypes and one of a kind, or products of a visionary nature that were never produced in quantity. I guess as soon as the Keltec SUB-2000 is dropped from the catalog that this will be the niche they fit into. Gyrojets, Dardicks, Bren-10's, etc. This is the "ahead of the curve" collectable area. My own collection includes a variety of Belgian black powder Colt clones dating from the 1960's, known as the Centaure's. These were the first ever quality black powder replicas and were both high quality and limited production. The business venture was a failure, the products are of high quality. They sell now for more than some genuine Colts. So think out of the box. Right now "original' Carbon 15's made by Pro Ordinance are cheap, and they are VERY interesting are are not common. Buy one.. you'll thank me later.
5: Items ascribed to a particular person of fame, IE: A pistol engraved as the property of person "XX" who is well known one reason or another. Eric Chings original Scout Rifle built at Gunsite, etc.
6: Originals of what later became common. Original Colt triagular forearm AR-15's, original Belgian FN FAL's, Israeli made (not Century) Galils, Valmet AK's of all sorts (M-76's, etc), MARS CETME's., etc. Very early examples of many "common" designs are desirable.
This is the framework. I do not see much produced these days fitting into the mold, but there are a load of things produced within the last 20 years that are cheap now and appreciating. I know what I am buying, and when I have all of them I'll tell ya what they are ... ;-)
Willie
.
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22-rimfire
Member
Future collectables are generally high quality and low production firearms. Not many people are likely to collect Jennings?? Hey... check out my collection of Jennings pistols.... So....?
Freedom Arms revolvers would be a likely future collectable IF they go out of business. Personally, I would prefer them to stay in business and continue to make quality firearms.
In 1995 (production had stopped in 1986 and Colt had declared bankruptcy in 1992.), few people would have expected Colt Diamondbacks to be serious collector guns, especially the 38spl's. It took another 10 years for interest to begin to gin up.
You have to get ahead of the interest curve. But you can tie up a lot of money very quickly. So that's why I suggest you buy things you like.
Freedom Arms revolvers would be a likely future collectable IF they go out of business. Personally, I would prefer them to stay in business and continue to make quality firearms.
In 1995 (production had stopped in 1986 and Colt had declared bankruptcy in 1992.), few people would have expected Colt Diamondbacks to be serious collector guns, especially the 38spl's. It took another 10 years for interest to begin to gin up.
You have to get ahead of the interest curve. But you can tie up a lot of money very quickly. So that's why I suggest you buy things you like.
huntsman
Member
that's where I'd park my cash in this endeavor.
I'd want guns that still function and I could use and recoup my initial investment and inflation. But I believe that ship sailed about 30 years ago so I buy guns to use and PM's to protect wealth and let the suckers look for the next beanie and commemorative of the gun world.
Willie Sutton
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"So that's why I suggest you buy things you like"
Which is why having a modicum of good taste is helpful.
Buy what you like, buy used, buy walnut, and buy quality.
You have to get ahead of the interest curve.
I was lucky enough to like Mausers when they were $150/each (and have over 100 military Model 98's as a result), wood stocked battle rifles (G-43's, SVT-38's and SVT-40's, FN-49's, Springfields, Enfields and Garands) when they were $300 max, sniper rifles (Original Swedish Mauser snipers, FN-49 snipers, Enfield Snipers,. M1C's and M1D's, etc) when they were $1000 max, black rifles back the 1980's (which explains the original Portuguese AR-10's, G series FAL's, MARS CETME, Valmets,. etc) when they were $1000 max, , and High Standard semi auto pistols.... when they were $200 max...
VERY sorry I never appreciated Japanese small arms of WW-II, we used to laugh at them at gunshows and snicker when guys bought them... like Mosin's now...
Ditto original cap & ball Colts, Colt SAA's, and Pythons.
Oh well.
Waiting for my semi auto FG-42 now. Not a lot of these going to be made..... $5K to play and a year to wait.
Willie
.
Which is why having a modicum of good taste is helpful.
Buy what you like, buy used, buy walnut, and buy quality.
You have to get ahead of the interest curve.
I was lucky enough to like Mausers when they were $150/each (and have over 100 military Model 98's as a result), wood stocked battle rifles (G-43's, SVT-38's and SVT-40's, FN-49's, Springfields, Enfields and Garands) when they were $300 max, sniper rifles (Original Swedish Mauser snipers, FN-49 snipers, Enfield Snipers,. M1C's and M1D's, etc) when they were $1000 max, black rifles back the 1980's (which explains the original Portuguese AR-10's, G series FAL's, MARS CETME, Valmets,. etc) when they were $1000 max, , and High Standard semi auto pistols.... when they were $200 max...
VERY sorry I never appreciated Japanese small arms of WW-II, we used to laugh at them at gunshows and snicker when guys bought them... like Mosin's now...
Ditto original cap & ball Colts, Colt SAA's, and Pythons.
Oh well.
Waiting for my semi auto FG-42 now. Not a lot of these going to be made..... $5K to play and a year to wait.
Willie
.
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pseudonymity
Member
Newly manufactured versions of guns that are still in demand but not being made in large quantities - DSA FALs and Springfield M1As come to mind.
Pistol caliber carbines in a form without a muzzle device or pistol grip are becoming very popular due to recent draconian laws in some states.
Lever rifles in calibers like .357 and .44 Mag seem to command a premium as well - there is enough demand to drive up the price on the used market, but not quite enough for a manufacturer to make a full production run on new guns.
Pistol caliber carbines in a form without a muzzle device or pistol grip are becoming very popular due to recent draconian laws in some states.
Lever rifles in calibers like .357 and .44 Mag seem to command a premium as well - there is enough demand to drive up the price on the used market, but not quite enough for a manufacturer to make a full production run on new guns.
45_auto
Member
javjacob, you're apparently better schooled in economics than I am, or maybe things have changed a lot since I got my MBA in 1987. I'm having a hard time trying to apply your wisdom.
In post #40 you say:
Then I look at a chart of gold value over the last 100 years, and I see that gold coins were losing value the vast majority of the time. I've highlighted the losing years in red, and the increasing years in green for you:
If I look at a chart of just the past year, it appears that despite your claims, your gold coins have lost about 33% of their value. Looks like the latest gold fad ended about a year ago:
Then in post #51 you say:
This seems to be a direct contradiction of what you said in post #40 where you said gold coins NEVER lose their value. You'll find that ANYTHING (pork futures, used cars, stocks and bonds, swampland, gold coins, etc, etc, etc) is a good investment as long as you buy low and sell high. The only trick is being smart enough to see into the future.
It's possible that not everyone has a crystal ball like you. Where did you get yours? Amazon doesn't seem to carry them. Should I be buying or selling gold right now? Is gold currently at a high or low? Is it heading for 1980 prices or 2001 prices?
On the other hand, as Tennjed pointed out to you, those "worthless" (according to you) pieces of paper like the Constitution, old Egyptian scrolls, historic documents, original text of great writers and thinkers, etc, are constantly increasing in value.
In post #40 you say:
javjacob said:
Then I look at a chart of gold value over the last 100 years, and I see that gold coins were losing value the vast majority of the time. I've highlighted the losing years in red, and the increasing years in green for you:
If I look at a chart of just the past year, it appears that despite your claims, your gold coins have lost about 33% of their value. Looks like the latest gold fad ended about a year ago:
Then in post #51 you say:
javjacob said:
This seems to be a direct contradiction of what you said in post #40 where you said gold coins NEVER lose their value. You'll find that ANYTHING (pork futures, used cars, stocks and bonds, swampland, gold coins, etc, etc, etc) is a good investment as long as you buy low and sell high. The only trick is being smart enough to see into the future.
It's possible that not everyone has a crystal ball like you. Where did you get yours? Amazon doesn't seem to carry them. Should I be buying or selling gold right now? Is gold currently at a high or low? Is it heading for 1980 prices or 2001 prices?
javjacob said:
On the other hand, as Tennjed pointed out to you, those "worthless" (according to you) pieces of paper like the Constitution, old Egyptian scrolls, historic documents, original text of great writers and thinkers, etc, are constantly increasing in value.
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Jimfern
Member
Buying any commodity (guns and gold included) in the hope that it will rise in value is speculation not investment.
Willie Sutton
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^^^ This.
Buy what you like.
If you have good taste, it'll probably appreciate. It might even keep up with inflation and if you do a great job be barely a loss as compared to carefully investing in the market.
"Newly manufactured versions of guns that are still in demand but not being made in large quantities - DSA FALs and Springfield M1As come to mind"
No.
There's a huge difference between being easy to sell and collectable.
Those might be easy to sell, but will never be collectable.....
Willie
.
Buy what you like.
If you have good taste, it'll probably appreciate. It might even keep up with inflation and if you do a great job be barely a loss as compared to carefully investing in the market.
"Newly manufactured versions of guns that are still in demand but not being made in large quantities - DSA FALs and Springfield M1As come to mind"
No.
There's a huge difference between being easy to sell and collectable.
Those might be easy to sell, but will never be collectable.....
Willie
.
YOU MUST HAVE MISSED A FEW THINGS I SAID IN EARLIER POSTS...
QUOTE
at no point did I say gold was the greatest investment and that glocks or ancient documents aren't worth anything. you and 45 auto are getting something completely different out of what my whole point was. glocks are not like ancient artifacts... ancient is very old and rare... glocks are made today and anyone can go to the gun shop and buy one. glocks wont be super valuable in our lifetimes. unless you think a few hundered dollars is super valuable. I know you or some one else will just quote me again and try to bash on something I said
baseball cards are not ancient. thought I would throw that in there before someone tries to come back on me about something I said... im sure someone will have something to say to try to discredit me
end of QUOTE
don't take everything so literal. when I say something is worth nothing I don't mean literally zero... its a phrase. It might not be worth much so people say its not worth anything... its not worth jack squat. they don't mean literally nothing... you cant understand that apparently.
QUOTE
at no point did I say gold was the greatest investment and that glocks or ancient documents aren't worth anything. you and 45 auto are getting something completely different out of what my whole point was. glocks are not like ancient artifacts... ancient is very old and rare... glocks are made today and anyone can go to the gun shop and buy one. glocks wont be super valuable in our lifetimes. unless you think a few hundered dollars is super valuable. I know you or some one else will just quote me again and try to bash on something I said
baseball cards are not ancient. thought I would throw that in there before someone tries to come back on me about something I said... im sure someone will have something to say to try to discredit me
end of QUOTE
don't take everything so literal. when I say something is worth nothing I don't mean literally zero... its a phrase. It might not be worth much so people say its not worth anything... its not worth jack squat. they don't mean literally nothing... you cant understand that apparently.
Smith & Wesson revolvers. Wheel guns are losing popularity so the supply is decreasing. Prices are already starting to climb.
Older 10/22's in original factory stock condition. This is a bolder prediction given the millions produced and will take at least a decade. The idea is that 10/22 is either heavily modified or are used as a beater. Mint condition 10/22's that are all metal and with nice wood stocks will one day be collectible like rare comic books.
Older 10/22's in original factory stock condition. This is a bolder prediction given the millions produced and will take at least a decade. The idea is that 10/22 is either heavily modified or are used as a beater. Mint condition 10/22's that are all metal and with nice wood stocks will one day be collectible like rare comic books.
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