TX Hogs, the Population Grows, but Remains @ 2 Million+

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Double Naught Spy

Double Naught Spy

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Forestburg, Texas
I started hunting hogs in 2008 and shot my first in 2009. Since 2008, the hog population was said to be over 2 million hogs and doing 52 million in damage a year. Since that time, I have also heard how the hog population is growing. It is getting bigger and bigger at an alarming rate. People even say it is growing so fast, exploding, can't be stopped, but the population seems to be stuck. It never seems to grow. Since I have hunting hogs, "over 2 million" has been the population estimate and they are still doing roughly 52 million a year in damage according to most articles, LOL.

It was at 2 million in 2005,
http://www.hpj.com/archives/2005/may05/may16/Texashogpopulationwreakingh.CFM

but It was thought to be close to 2 million back in 1997.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?i...81655&dq=texas+hog+population+2+million&hl=en

All this is interesting given that A&M estimates 21% population growth per year, but their estimate is 1.8 to 3.4 million hogs.
http://feralhogs.tamu.edu/files/2011/05/FeralHogFactSheet.pdf

So assuming 2.0 million as late as 2005 and 21% growth...
2006 = 2.42 million
2007 = 2.93
2008 = 3.54
2009 = 4.29
2010 = 5.19
2011 = 6.27
2012 = 7.59 hogs in Texas this year!

So where are the hogs? We should have 3-4 times the number of hogs people keep talking about, but when the experts speak on TV or put out an article, the population really hasn't changed much since 1997 when it was close to 2 million, reaching 2 million by 2005, and now is just over 2 million and has been for the last 5 years. At this rate, they should have armed guards having to shoot hogs off the playground of my kids' school (hogs are hunted on the ranch adjoining the school) and I can't even get them to come to my feeders with corn, sweetfeed, sour corn, or graphic pictures of Miss Piggy. Something ain't right. Even with a much reduced rate of growth, we should still be well over 5 million, but we aren't, not according to the experts.

Either somebody can't count or the population isn't growing as claimed, LOL!
 
The helicopter hog hunting business must be doing a great job of taking them out in huge numbers.
 
Don't confuse density with range. They have steadily spread into suitable habitat. How many years of drought have you had? The issue with hogs is there is relatively little natural predation to control the population and they are prolific breeders. When habitat is favorable their local population growth will outstrip other species.
 
If you see one, and have permission per the law and a safe backstop, shoot it.

Period no excuses.

Just my .02,
LeonCarr
 
Don't confuse density with range. They have steadily spread into suitable habitat. How many years of drought have you had? The issue with hogs is there is relatively little natural predation to control the population and they are prolific breeders. When habitat is favorable their local population growth will outstrip other species.
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Uh-huh, got it. Haven't confused density and range. It isn't a local habitat density issue but a basic math issue. The state's population has been "exploding" since the 90s and has barely gone from "nearly 2 million" in the 90s to "more than 2 million" today and more than 2 million has been the magic number for several years now.

Has the range expanded since the 90s? Defnitely. Range expansion isn't the same thing as population and the studies on population numbers are not disucssing density, but frequency.
 
Well we are doing our part around here!! Although it has been lean pickings as of late.

Like many studies and numbers they are just guestaments.
 
High rate of birth, but also high infant mortality. They do keep all the accumulated calories in the family though... they eat the ones that don't make it. The zombie apocalypse has arrived... and they're pigs.
 
According to my cams they aren't dropping in numbers despite the fact we shoot them as often and as many at a time as we can get, when ever presented with the chance.

I shot 11 in a 3 day span, and had 15 different ones show up on my cameras the same week. Remove one bunch and another walks in and takes it's place. I can't be out there 24/7 and with cover, food, and water in my area I doubt seriously that I or my neighbors will ever drop the numbers significantly as hard as we might try.

With their breeding cycle and no real natural predation, they will continue to multiply and spread out as they adapt tot he food and conditions of the areas they move into. Trouble is they eat just about anything that won't eat them first, and as mentioned sometimes even each other. Water is a viable need and without it they cannot survive for long. They have to have a source, and with the drought being what it is it is forcing them to move into new areas and concentrate on it.

As for the numbers yep I figured it is only an WAG on someone's part. Hard for me to imagine how they could count the numbers in the thick areas I hunt. It's all we can do sometimes simply to get in there, much less find and count the hogs that live in it year round. Even if we did, they might be there one week and gone for a month, so you can't really put a solid number on it. It would be like trying to figure out how many fire ants there are in a given county.
 
Wildlife population counts can be done effectively and are used around the world and have been used for at least the last 100 years. There are all sorts of methods, but it all comes down to about 4 and they can are sometimes are used together.
Direct total counts (count every head)
Incomplete counts (sampling)
Indirect counts (using things like number of kills reported)
Mark and recapture (such as bird tagging, electronic trackers)

So since the 80s, the hog population has said to be exploding in Texas. Since the 90s near 2 million and for the better part of 18 years not growing significantly in numbers despite additional calculations/counts and claims of high population growth rates. If the counts keep coming up in the neighborhood of 2+/- million over several years, maybe population's growth isn't a great as claimed.

That isn't to say hogs aren't a problem. Certainly stepped up hunting and the drought haven't killed them off.
 
seems to me it's just a convoluted method of saying the hog population is nearly stable at ~2 million.
 
The fact is:

Few 'reliable'...and certainly NO intensive studies have been done until recently...and even these are limited in scope.


http://feralhogs.tamu.edu/files/2011/05/FeralHogFactSheet.pdf

http://feralhogs.tamu.edu/2011/05/agrilife-today-busting-feral-hog-myths/

http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/publications/pwdpubs/media/pwd_bk_w7000_0195.pdf

Suffice to say....that much is unknown about true mortality rates (natural) for feral hogs, so right away we have a glitch in any data gathered.

Nearly all of the predictions are based on 'models', extrapolation and best guesses.

A certain amount of Hog Myths and Hyperbole is present in media reports and even official State Reports, so don't be fooled into thinking any of it is necessarily 'fact'.

There is no question (in Texas) that the hog population IS growing...and their range is spreading, but just how MANY hogs there are...and the true annual population increase.... remains an unknown. Only 'guesses' are possible at this juncture.

It would take 10 years of serious study to come up with any meaningful data.

Biologists and Scientists like to create many complicated models, graphs and tools....to support a simpler base structure.

In this case:

1. Total population (all ages...annually)
2. Minus total mortality (all ages, all means/reasons)

Equals: Gross population growth (assuming total survival in a given year).

What that number TRULY is....we can't say with any certainty (at this point), BUT one thing is crystal clear: Hogs are propagating at a faster pace than they are dying. They are increasing their range and doing quite well.
 
ive done my share of hog hunting in S.E. Arkansas....and while the numbers seem steady, the "big ones" are fewer in between.
 
Don't know about where YOU are, but they're denser than ever on MY place. I like 'em, though, good source of protein and I don't own my land for any other purpose than hunting. If they were eating my corn or tearing up my pasture, I might have a different attitude about 'em.
 
What that number TRULY is....we can't say with any certainty (at this point), BUT one thing is crystal clear: Hogs are propagating at a faster pace than they are dying. They are increasing their range and doing quite well.
Click to expand...

While I have no doubt this is true, I can't get over the numbers not changing. The question is, why don't the numbers change? It is hard to convincingly claim the population is growing by leaps and bounds and then to not show any significant increase the the size of the population.

Found out a Mountain Lion has been doing his thing in our area which has really cut down on the sightings of feral pigs.
Click to expand...

And as you point out, has caused the pigs to wander out of the immediate area which has done nothing to change the state hog population one iota. Some smart hunter/landowner will kill the cat as soon as they can get sights on it and the hogs will come right back.
 
While I have no doubt this is true, I can't get over the numbers not changing. The question is, why don't the numbers change? It is hard to convincingly claim the population is growing by leaps and bounds and then to not show any significant increase the the size of the population.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

They need to get their story straight!

I think one explanation is that hogs might be increasing their numbers in some areas more than others. As this happens...the hogs spread out in search of more (or better) habitat...leading to reports of 'exponential' increase (they suddenly exist where they didn't before).

This doesn't mean the ENTIRE population of the State is keeping pace, but you'd be hard pressed to convince John Q. Public (and some wildlife officials) differently. Hyperbole and 'less than perfect' studies..... result in inflated figures...in some cases. Even scientists/biologists can not resist embellishing their findings sometimes.

Other areas (due to amount of available habitat and hunting pressure) DO regulate (to some degree) the amount of growth. Naturally, the perception in those areas is that the population is somewhat stable (though surely growing).

So conflict exists, but you wouldn't know it...from most reports. Almost universally it is 'parroted' that hogs are 'doubling' in numbers every year and spreading like wildfire. I would be surprised if the true increase was much above 15-18% most places (annually). But that is PLENTY! :mad:
 
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One sow can have 3 litters a year and it's not uncommon to have 9-10 pigs. I'd say it's entirely possible their population is doubling. Not to mention sows can have a litter before their first birthday.

It's a good thing some people are completely ruthless when it comes to killing them
 
One sow can have 3 litters a year and it's not uncommon to have 9-10 pigs.
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I think this 'misnomer' (3 litters a year) originated from folks using basic math skills....but lacking any understanding of animal husbandry. The gestation period of Feral Hogs is approximately 115 days.

IF we divide that into 365 days (one year) it is 'mathematically' possible to arrive at 3 litters. Problem is, that approach completely dispenses with ALL other factors involved in the pregnancy, the weaning of young and breeding back!

Normally, a sow will have an estrous cycle (complete cycle) lasting 21 days, but a 'Standing Heat' of only 50-60 hours. IF covered by a boar, they will have the litter about 115 days later.

BUT (except in rare circumstances) they will not enter another estrous cycle until 4-7 days AFTER the piglets are weaned (anywhere from 7-10 weeks...normally). The sow 'can' then breed back about a week later, but might wait another 21 days.

So the new 'real world' math looks more like this:

1. Sow is pregnant 110-115 days and has litter.
2. Sow nurses litter for 7-10 weeks, lets just use 4 and be extra generous.
3. Sow breeds back at 4-7 days after weaning (lactation wanes or ceases)

110 + 30 + 4 = 144 days minimum (per litter)... means 3 litters a year isn't going to happen. Also, 4-6 piglets is more like a normal litter than is 9-10 , but that number is certainly possible with good conditions, just not common.



I'd say it's entirely possible their population is doubling.
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In what time period? Not yearly...not by a long shot. You have to figure in mortality all across the board.


Not to mention sows can have a litter before their first birthday.
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This is true. At six to eight months of age...a gilt is physically capable of becoming pregnant. At the same age...boars will actively begin 'trying' to breed the females. Most studies (to date) show that gilts will successfully breed at about 1 year of age (in the wild), but it IS possible for them to do so earlier.
 
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I think one explanation is that hogs might be increasing their numbers in some areas more than others. As this happens...the hogs spread out in search of more (or better) habitat...leading to reports of 'exponential' increase (they suddenly exist where they didn't before).
Click to expand...

From what I can gather from reading various studies, this is probably the best possible explanation.

LOL on the doubling population. Lots of populations are doubling. It just takes a really long time for some. We have more than doubled the human population in my lifetime. It only took 42 years.
 
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