MCgunner
Member
Winchester patterns best in my 20. I was using Winchester AA, but it's getting expensive. My hit probability doesn't seem to suffer much with the value pack, either.
walmart shotgun 100 round value packs
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Tom Held
Member
check carefully
You get what you pay for with these value packs. I went out last week to shoot sporting clays with a friend. He had a value pack of Winchesters. Almost half of them failed to fire because the primers were seated too deep. I've seen this before but only with the Winchesters. I made him discard the misfires due to possibility of hangfires. Of course Walmart won't allow returns on partly open boxes. I gave him Remington Gun Club loads to shoot and they worked flawlessly (note 12 gauge). He was shooting a near new Ruger Woodside over/under. Right now I can buy Remington Gun Club loads at PG for $60 a flat. Tom
You get what you pay for with these value packs. I went out last week to shoot sporting clays with a friend. He had a value pack of Winchesters. Almost half of them failed to fire because the primers were seated too deep. I've seen this before but only with the Winchesters. I made him discard the misfires due to possibility of hangfires. Of course Walmart won't allow returns on partly open boxes. I gave him Remington Gun Club loads to shoot and they worked flawlessly (note 12 gauge). He was shooting a near new Ruger Woodside over/under. Right now I can buy Remington Gun Club loads at PG for $60 a flat. Tom
MCgunner
Member
I would imagine the misfires would be very gun dependent. I've never had that problem. I have, however, heard of Winchesters sticking on extraction and the extractors slipping the rim. I've had this problem with 3" Winchester Xpert high speed steel loads, but not with the value packs. My 20 is a side by side, so that's not a concern, anyway, in that gun.
I swore off Remington for a while, had problems with the 3" number on steel 12s hanging on my Mossberg's action, unfolded length too long and wouldn't eject smoothly. I've not gone back to Remington steel shot 3" since. I don't know if that's been cured.
I shoot a lot more steel than lead loads, being as I mostly hunt waterfowl and don't shoot clays very often. Lately, I've settled on Winchester steel high speed Expert 3 shot in 2 3/4". I've had no problems with 'em in my Mossberg, they seem to be very good on ducks to 40+ yards, and they work in my Winchester autoloader which is a 2 3/4" gun. I used the value pack 7.5 shot Winchester stuff in my Winchester auto 2 years ago for doves and had no problems at all, shot 3 limits in 3 days.
I swore off Remington for a while, had problems with the 3" number on steel 12s hanging on my Mossberg's action, unfolded length too long and wouldn't eject smoothly. I've not gone back to Remington steel shot 3" since. I don't know if that's been cured.
I shoot a lot more steel than lead loads, being as I mostly hunt waterfowl and don't shoot clays very often. Lately, I've settled on Winchester steel high speed Expert 3 shot in 2 3/4". I've had no problems with 'em in my Mossberg, they seem to be very good on ducks to 40+ yards, and they work in my Winchester autoloader which is a 2 3/4" gun. I used the value pack 7.5 shot Winchester stuff in my Winchester auto 2 years ago for doves and had no problems at all, shot 3 limits in 3 days.
They were $15 in 2006-2007.
Inflation rates from 2006-2008:
2006 3.23%
2007 2.85%
2008 3.84%
9.92%
$15+ $15(10%) = $16.50
Lead prices spiked in 2007, and went down to massive lows earlier in the 2009 year.
Below 45cents.
So that should more than equal any increased metal costs from bulk costs earlier.
The inflation rate in 2009 is not high enough to make up the more than $4 difference.
In fact the dollar has been quite strong when compared to other currencies since the financial crisis, so foreign purchased raw materials should be even cheaper.
Gas prices were very similar, in fact they are even cheaper now than in August of 2006.
Still seems overpriced to me.
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rbernie
Contributing Member
I'm sure that the plastic hull material is a lot more expensive, since the cost of the oil from which it is derived has increased since 2006.
Gas prices in 2006 for the month of August were over $3. Currently they are under $3
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html
In fact gas prices for 2006 and 2009 averaged out are very similar.
Since the price of gasoline is based on the crude oil plus the refinement, it should be very similar to the price increases and decreases for the crude based plastics.
oneounceload
member
You might not be taking into account WHEN these shells were made. They do a production run - It might have been a few months ago, or last week. That has a lot to do with what the mfg. will be charging.
According to your analysis, 28 and 410 should be around $2.00/box instead of 10-11......and that is not the case
According to your analysis, 28 and 410 should be around $2.00/box instead of 10-11......and that is not the case
Where do you arrive at that? Only if they were about 12% less than $2.00 in 2006. So you are saying they were less than $2 a box in 2006?
Gas prices averaged out for 2009 and 2006 are very similar.
Inflation for 2006, 2007 and 2008 was just about 10% total (so your money is worth 10% less). If it is going to be at all near the 3% mark for 2009 it should be around 12% more than it was in 2006 by this point. Unless the country is really creating new money at a record pace...That would of course cause inflation to skyrocket.
Actually according to official numbers 2009 has had very low inflation, primarily due to other currencies dropping faster in value.
Demand is not that different. Fewer people are purchasing large amounts and blowing it quickly while recreating, but there was more gun purchases in early 2009. Other sources of demand for the raw materials are much lower. Raw materials hit many year record lows in early 2009.
So demand should not be that different overall.
So overall it should only be about the price increase of inflation.
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oneounceload
member
Your analysis seems to intimate that prices should be back to those levels because the raw material prices have dropped. Not always the case. There is also production scheduling, supply/demand, and other costs, both fixed and variable that needs to be considered. Shotshells are typically run in one run, maybe two for the year. Depending on when they were run will also determine raw material costs, along with raw material replacement costs. Political climate has a play in this as well.
The prices for early 2009 were even lower on just about every single thing than they were in 2006.
From lead, to copper, even oil took a dive for months.
So if even a single run was done at any point in 2009 it would have been cheaper to make than in 2006.
So they could be charging more due to long term contracts still using long term averages, but that means consumers are paying more for thier mistakes. That ammo would be much cheaper from a competitor that bought materials in 2009.
In fact with the dollar currently much stronger against currencies than last year, foreign ammo should be an even better deal.
Now to research the nation doing the worst that produces large quantities of ammunition...
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oneounceload
member
Maybe from a raw material standpoint - but where we live, wages have gone up, utilities have gone up, transportation, taxes, insurances, etc., etc., etc., have ALL gone up. What will they be when it is time for the next run? THAT is something that production schedulers also take into account - just like oil refiners
Inflation rates of 2009 are actually going in reverse:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
0 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4
So money is becoming more valuable in 2009 than it was in 2008.
Not by that high of a percentage. Large companies are talking many millions just by a percentage point change.
Have wages gone up higher than the inflation rate? If everything went up at the rate of inflation, people are in reality making no more than they were.
If you make 10% more numerically today than you did in 2006 you actually make about the same.
So in fact the pay of most people has gone down, even if the official number they are making has gone up. Because unless thier pay has gone up more than the inflation rate, they are making less.
With unemployment climbing higher, most workers are happy to just have a job, not in a position to demand better wages and better benefits.
So no, the costs of most workers (unless making a low enough salary to be effected by the federal minimum wage change) will be lower in 2009 than it was in 2006 when workers could demand wage increases and the economy was strong. If it is a company actually selling its product (like ammo) then the profit potential if they were just charging the increase in inflation would be even greater now than in 2006.
So there is no real reason to need to charge an additional $4 more above the inflation rate change. That is a whopping 40% increase from $15 -$21. Take out the inflation of 10% and it is still a 30% increase in cost over inflation.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
0 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4
So money is becoming more valuable in 2009 than it was in 2008.
Not by that high of a percentage. Large companies are talking many millions just by a percentage point change.
Have wages gone up higher than the inflation rate? If everything went up at the rate of inflation, people are in reality making no more than they were.
If you make 10% more numerically today than you did in 2006 you actually make about the same.
So in fact the pay of most people has gone down, even if the official number they are making has gone up. Because unless thier pay has gone up more than the inflation rate, they are making less.
With unemployment climbing higher, most workers are happy to just have a job, not in a position to demand better wages and better benefits.
So no, the costs of most workers (unless making a low enough salary to be effected by the federal minimum wage change) will be lower in 2009 than it was in 2006 when workers could demand wage increases and the economy was strong. If it is a company actually selling its product (like ammo) then the profit potential if they were just charging the increase in inflation would be even greater now than in 2006.
So there is no real reason to need to charge an additional $4 more above the inflation rate change. That is a whopping 40% increase from $15 -$21. Take out the inflation of 10% and it is still a 30% increase in cost over inflation.
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chevyforlife21
Member
they were 15 bucks 4 years ago
inflation is a cost multiplier: if the price of a raw material goes up and price inflation along with other raw materials. the final product cost to consumers will increase more than the inflation rate.
also remember that ENERGY increases are not included in the gov published inflation rates.
also remember that ENERGY increases are not included in the gov published inflation rates.
oneounceload
member
personally, I prefer the Federal or Remingtons of those three, but really like RIO's or Estates from other locales even better
nody
Member
Shooting skeet today with winchester Universals in a Winchester SX2. out of three boxes, 1 fail to feed, one ripped the "brass" (is that aluminum?) off the hull upon extraction. The rep appears deserved. It was an easy fix.
Fella I was shooting with had an 1100, and he said when he called remington about feeding problems, their answer was to use only remington ammo!
Fella I was shooting with had an 1100, and he said when he called remington about feeding problems, their answer was to use only remington ammo!
We went shooting clays today (first time for me) and I picked up a Winchester bulk pack on my way there to add to the pile of shells they brought. I went through all 100 of those plus another 80 of another type of winnie cheap stuff without an issue from the OLD 870 I was shooting. The owner of that one also brought a Mossberg 500 and many others out but the 500 wouldn't eject the bulk pack shells at all. We gave up on it and went to another brand and had no more issues.
On a side note, I'm now completely hooked on shooting clays. That's the most fun I've had in a day of shooting in many years.
On a side note, I'm now completely hooked on shooting clays. That's the most fun I've had in a day of shooting in many years.
Snarlingiron
Member
I voted Remington. Great stuff. I have personally witnessed a number of stuck Winchester hulls. Federal works ok for me, but is filthy nasty and leaves lots of black residue everywhere.
oneounceload
member
At 20.97/4 boxes - you're looking at 5.25/box. I can buy much better quality shells from Rio or Kemen for $55/flat, or $5.5/box - For .01/shell extra, I'll go that route
rbernie
Contributing Member
Where? I can't....
I have never had a problem with the Federals.
I have seen people at the range have problems with the Winchesters. Handing them, the hulls felt way more maleable (talking about loaded rounds here) than the the Federal or Remington hulls.
I have seen people at the range have problems with the Winchesters. Handing them, the hulls felt way more maleable (talking about loaded rounds here) than the the Federal or Remington hulls.
A man with a gun!
Member
Not to shift too far off track, I just mail ordered a case of Winchester Ranger 00 Buck for an excellent price with free shipping.
Cheaper than the imported Rio's, does Winchesters crummy reputation (As seen in this thread) extend into their law enforcement product line?
You guys have me wondering if I really did find a bargain.
Cheaper than the imported Rio's, does Winchesters crummy reputation (As seen in this thread) extend into their law enforcement product line?
You guys have me wondering if I really did find a bargain.
sfc_mark
Member
In my experience the Federals are dirty. As an experiment my son picked up the Federals and I bought the Winchesters on the way to the skeet range. By station two there was way more fouling in his bores than I had after a full round.
The next time out I decided to stick with AA Light target from now on. I plan to start reloading in the near future and factoring in the value of the empty hulls at the going Internet rate, I figure I'm only paying $.73 a box more than the junk loads.
If I weren't saving the good hulls for reloading I would either stick with the Winchesters or try the Remingtons...the Federals are just too dirty for me.
The next time out I decided to stick with AA Light target from now on. I plan to start reloading in the near future and factoring in the value of the empty hulls at the going Internet rate, I figure I'm only paying $.73 a box more than the junk loads.
If I weren't saving the good hulls for reloading I would either stick with the Winchesters or try the Remingtons...the Federals are just too dirty for me.
oneounceload
member
We have a distributor that comes to one of the local monthly shoots (actually I think he goes to all of the clubs in a large area) and sells out of the back of his truck. he also takes orders and delivers to the shoot. This guy is in Jax, Fl, but Kemen have distributors all over. Not sure if their site lists them or not
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