What if they did not make any new guns?

[bushmaster1313]

Now that I know the drill for bidding on Gunbroker and taking delivery/transfer through my local FFL it's been a long time since I bought a new gun.

With so many excellent used firearms on the market, other than military and LE, how long would it be before the majority of the gun owning/gun buying community was really affected by the lack of new guns?

Let's assume you could still get parts.

Note, I do not advocate a moratorium, because once they stopped they would never get started again.

 

[killchain]

The semi autos would go first because the extractors would start to break.

Other than that, I imagine the last surviving firearm would probably be a dobloe [edit= "double"] or single barreled shotgun.

 

[dawico]

Immediately. Granted there are a lot of guns out there, but look at what happened to the full autos. I would guess that all of the used guns would go up in price if not taken off the market.

 

[bushmaster1313]

The semi autos would go first because the extractors would start to break.

Let's assume you could still get parts.
Even for me, replacing the extractor on a black rifle is easy.

 

[chicharrones]

This makes me think of the pictures I see of Cuba with the old American automobiles they have there.

 

[hso]

Pretty quickly considering that poly firearms are in pretty high demand. Heck, look at Cuba keeping 1950's vehicles running while anyone there would love to get a newly produced vehicle instead of scrounging 30 year old parts.

 

[chieftain]

If gun production stopped for Civilian use there are two assumptions that go with that.

First that parts will still be available for a while, and the most common guns would have parts newly manufactured, at least for a while.

The second assumption is that we will not be shooting our guns as much as we do now.

The older designs could well press back into popularity again, proven endurance and parts tend to be very robust.

1911's, Glocks, SIG's, Revolvers should all flourish. In rifles, the Remington model 700, Mauser actions and copy rifles, Winchester, Marlins etc... will come back.

And of course the ubiquitous Ruger 10/22. ( I also have my Remington nylon 66 too)

Double shotguns, and of course the pump will once more reign.

A lot of folks are surprised at the 1911 pick. Easy to maintain if you know what you are doing. I keep three extractors in my personal stock, and enough parts kits to build a couple of guns from major parts. I own 23 1911's. I can and do fit my own parts. Not a gunsmith, just handy and been doing it for a while. Same with my Marlin lever action rifles, 1894 and 336's.

 

[Sav .250]

Sooner or later it would be a .....seller market. IMO.

 

[M2 Carbine]

What if they did not make any new guns?

It depends on who the "they" is you are talking about and what restrictions are put in place at the time.

Building simple blow back guns (full auto) is simple. Building more complicated guns or gun parts in your garage gets a little harder but not impossible.
So if (for some reason) the gun manufacturers simple went out of business but it was legal to construct guns and parts some people would simply fill the void but no doubt the availability of guns and parts would be small and expensive.

 

[gym]

Nothing would happen as long as you could get parts. If a new technology came out, that would effect the equation, like a laser fired weapon, that would change the game. When you say "make", does that mean manufacture new designs, or, make any gun at all. If it meant any gun at all, there would indeed be a huge jump in the price of exhisting guns of any kind. But I cannot see that happening, because someone someware would still make them. Even if it were copys made out of the country or in a machine shop.

 

[General Geoff]

The answer to the OP's question depends on whether the cessation of new firearms manufacture is caused by lack of demand, or by law.

If it's because of lack of demand, the market for used guns will be relatively undisturbed.

If it's because of law, the price for existing guns will skyrocket.

 

[MagnumDweeb]

This could only happen in the U.S. if some crazy anit-American law got passed, or things got bad enough in the U.S. as far as infrastructure(say massive oil shortage) that the demand for new firearms would dwindle to virtually nothing on the civilian side. I suspect the rule of law would not be too far behind and then that's when things get interesting.

Plenty of folks know plenty of things out my way. Lots of folks own plenty of home build Semi-Auto only builds like Brens(home build projects), PPSH41s and 43s, AK variants, I've done a PPSH 43 pistol myself and it was a real PIA adapting a Remington 870 fire control grip and rendering it a pistol only and not modifiable by reasonable means(210 volt arc welder and lots of patience). But when I was done I couldn't help thinking it would have been a heck of a lot easier to built it as a Full Auto had it been legal. With the right barrel there was no reason not to use the same platform in 9mm had it been legal.

Single shot rifles would be easy enough, paper cartridges could be done for 'shotguns.' You wouldn't get anything great but where there is a will, or need rather, there is a way. There'd be folks figuring out the pin cutting and scraping methods for making rifle barrels(little better quality than the old rifles of the Civil War Era like trap door rifles).

Granted this is all predicated on some wildly impossible ideas but I'm just saying.

 

[ldsgeek]

The other thing is how many people have a home machine shop.I have a lathe now and intend to get a milling machine.With those tools and the copy of blueprints i have for the 1911 it wouldn't be long before i could make new ones. Even if the manufacturers stopped making new ones the shooters wouldn't.

 

[Bullnettles]

You just reminded me to grab a few extractors and another firing pin from MUSA. Thank!

 

[lotus]

Think of MGs since the '86 ban. Similar situation I would imagine.

 

[danprkr]

All of those used guns on Gun Broker were once new. So the pinch would be felt nearly immediately I'd imagine.

 

[fiddleharp]

What if "they" quit making ammunition as well?

 

[bushmaster1313]

Many countries have very strict laws governing ammo

To me a big bump in ammo prices would hurt much much than even a total ban all all new gun sales

 

[chieftain]

Many countries have very strict laws governing ammo

To me a big bump in ammo prices would hurt much much than even a total ban all all new gun sales

The American Left ECO-Wingnuts are starting that now, just last week, with the EPA trying to outlaw ammunition containing Lead. Although the law specifically exempts ammunition from what the EPA can regulate. That ain't ever stopped a liberal from "interpreting" the constitution or any other law contrary to what it says. Just look at their primary argument AGAINST the 2nd Amendment, not what it say's but what they want it to say.

Sorry for the political input but that is where this question and ultimately this argument must go.

Go figure.

Fred

 

[dirtyjim]

i seriously doubt it would affect me since i prefer pre-war british sporting rifles and they aint makin them anymore anyway. i've only seen a handfull of interesting rifles come out in the last 20 years.

 

[gun guy]

If, sales of weapons to civilians were suddenly suspended, odds are far more nefarious events would be unfolding. At that point. existing weapons would command their weight in gold. Consider this, they can't even keep weapons out of prisons, there are enough skilled craftsmen that cottage industry guns would begin to show up. While not match quality they would no doubt be lethal. If such an event were to take place, it might be wise to invest in canned food futures and casket companies. In the small village of Dara, far up in the mountains, A master, an apprentice,around a coal fired oven, with hand tools, create everything from pen guns to 40 mm bofurs guns,(and artificial limbs). The Russian military decided to close down this little gun factory, after 2 weeks of intense fighting, they decided to leave these simple tribsemen alone. How much more could we do here, with electricity?
Have a great day.

 

[Mr.Davis]

I understand you're just trying to engage in a thought experiment, not speculate what would happen if the government shut down all production of guns. Obviously, were such a scenario to occur, the remaining firearms inventory in dealer stock would literally disappear within hours. But if demand stayed consistent with current levels, I just don't know enough about manufacturer, distributor, and dealer inventories to even begin to speculate how long existing stocks would last.

That said, gun production could never be completely shut down. Take a look at what happens in the gun markets of Pakistan with decades-old machinery and no formal training: http://www.vbs.tv/watch/the-vice-guide-to-travel/the-gun-markets-of-pakistan

The American Left ECO-Wingnuts are starting that now, just last week, with the EPA trying to outlaw ammunition containing Lead. Although the law specifically exempts ammunition from what the EPA can regulate. That ain't ever stopped a liberal from "interpreting" the constitution or any other law contrary to what it says. Just look at their primary argument AGAINST the 2nd Amendment, not what it say's but what they want it to say.

The EPA has already stated they don't have the authority to regulate the use of lead in ammo and rejected the request. That threat is over, at least for the time being.

I'm about as conservative as they come, but you should check your facts - liberals aren't the only ones out to get our guns. Bush 1 signed the first AWB into law, and everyone's fondly-remembered "super-conservative" Reagan signed the law that closed the MG registry.

Remember that the saying says "Guns only have two enemies - rust and politicians." Notice that it doesn't say "rust and liberals".

 

[chieftain]

liberals aren't the only ones out to get our guns

Neither of the Bush's were conservatives. Primary reason Bush one didn't get a second term. And Bush II probably would have lost if the Democrats had found a decent candidate to run against him. sKerry was not the guy, similar to ALGORE both were putzes.

We lost in 2008 because once again the Republicans ran a not so conservative candidate or as I like to say, our Putz (And understand I have been on a first name basis with McCain for 28 years. I do not care for the man at all.). We conservatives had no where to go. Many, often clearly stated right here on this forum, stayed home. I followed McCain's mothers advice, I held my nose and voted.

The PRIMARY difference is in the Supreme court, both Republican appointees and Democratic appointees voted against our literal interpretation of the Second Amendment. But every Justice that DID vote for our literal interpretation of the Second Amendment was appointed by a Republican. Although it should not have happened, at least the Legislative branch of our government has abdicated their Defacto power in to many things and ways to the Courts. Much of it based on and because of the abuse of the Commerce Clause.

Please note the trend. Until I see at lease "some" Democratic Supreme Court Justices that interpret the Constitution literally, I will not vote for a Democratic candidate for President, Congress or Senate, and because they often appoint folks to those offices, Governor of my state.

The real fight for our rights in the Supreme Court. That requires control of the White house AND the Senate at minimum.

Those votes and questions apply directly to the question the OP as has asked of us.

Go figure.

Fred

 

[Mr.Davis]

I agree with you just said, Fred. I'm glad that you know the difference in ideology and party affiliation. There are just too many people out there that equate liberal with Democrat, and believe nobody with an "R" by their name is an enemy of the RKBA.

Those people should realize not only what I posted earlier about Bush and Reagan, but that the foremost opponent of our gun rights, one Michael Bloomberg, was a Republican until 2007.

 

[TexasRifleman]

Easing into the political world guys. Interesting thread and "what if". Please don't take it down the political ideology road and get it closed.