What is the chance of SCOTUS accepting an AWB / High Capacity Magazine case this year?

[Aim1]

With SCOTUS only taking apprx. 90 cases a year and only two 2nd Amendment cases in nearly 20 years it's obviously rare for them to take a 2nd Amendment case.

However with Bruen being ruled in such a manner there has been a ton of recent action on 2nd Amendment cases in the lower courts. Now you have cases pertaining to age, restrictions on sensitive locations, "good moral character", assault weapons, high capacity magazines, whether or not government can make private property automatically gun free zones, red flag laws, restraining order laws, serial numbers, ghost guns, and many more.


I don't think SCOTUS would accept or rule on all of these cases. Obviously some of the biggest ones would be AWB and high capacity magazines.

It appears that SCOTUS may take on the 18 years old to purchase a firearm case or restraining order case first and if they take those first than does that leave no room for them to take anymore 2nd Amendment cases this term?



What is the chance of SCOTUS accepting an Assault Weapons Ban / High Capacity Magazine ban case this term or anytime soon?

 

[Aim1]

Anyone?

 

[armoredman]

Toss up? Who knows? We'll find out, that's for certain, one way or another.

 

[CapnMac]

There's always some chance.

Around 3000 to 3500 cases are passed to SCOTUS every year. They have time for around 850-900 cases. Which is why they haggle over granting certiori, that the merits of the case warrant review.

The question really is, what cases in the Circuits are likely to be advanced to SCOTUS.

For instance, if the CA AWB (and/or the Mag ban, a separate case) is decided one way, the "loser" would then appeal to SCOTUS. The IL AWB, which may go down in flames in District Court, would then go to the Circuit Court, and likely SCOTUS after that.

There are a number of anti-AWB cases, mostly still in their States. Both CA and WA have cases, so, there's all sorts of stuff out there.

SCOTUS will tend to focus on situations where the different Circuits have found "opposite" of each other.

 

[Old Dog]

If one looks at the trending legislation in some blue states, note all the conflicting injunctions, stays and appeals, and how slowly these cases are moving in the lower courts, I'd say the chances of SCOTUS taking on an AWB or magazine capacity ban anytime soon is nil.

Petitions for cert are in the pipeline on the bump-stock ban case (5th circuit invalidating Trump's ban), Garland v. Cargill, and another case where Biden's trying to get SCOTUS to overturn the 5th Circuit's invalidation of the law prohibiting gun possession by someone under a DV restraining order, U.S. v. Rahimi. The liberal news media is all in a tizzy about both these cases already.

We're waiting for Benitez' decision in the 9th, but rumor is he's waiting for WA Gov. Inslee to sign the state's new AWB (and we're all waiting for the dog & pony show that's gonna be Jay's high-profile signing ceremony (expecting to see Bloomberg, Hogg, Giffords -- maybe Soros? et al in Olympia this week).

 

[Aim1]

There's always some chance.

Around 3000 to 3500 cases are passed to SCOTUS every year. They have time for around 850-900 cases. Which is why they haggle over granting certiori, that the merits of the case warrant review.

The question really is, what cases in the Circuits are likely to be advanced to SCOTUS.

For instance, if the CA AWB (and/or the Mag ban, a separate case) is decided one way, the "loser" would then appeal to SCOTUS. The IL AWB, which may go down in flames in District Court, would then go to the Circuit Court, and likely SCOTUS after that.

There are a number of anti-AWB cases, mostly still in their States. Both CA and WA have cases, so, there's all sorts of stuff out there.

SCOTUS will tend to focus on situations where the different Circuits have found "opposite" of each other.

Have 2 separate circuits ruled opposite each other on an AWB cases yet?

 

[Dudedog]

We're waiting for Benitez' decision in the 9th, but rumor is he's waiting for WA Gov. Inslee to sign the state's new AWB

Looks like he signed it, I feel sorry for my fellow gun owners in WA.
NSSF has said they will file suit.

 

[Aim1]

Looks like he signed it, I feel sorry for my fellow gun owners in WA.
NSSF has said they will file suit.
View attachment 1147891

So is there a split in the circuits if Benitez rules that an AWB is unconstitutional?

 

[Robert]

I ain't holding my breath.

 

[AlexanderA]

Linda Greenhouse of the New York Times (a very respected Supreme Court analyst) has recently written that she expects the Supreme Court to take an AWB case within a year, and to rule against such bans. Maybe this is antigun alarmism, but I would take anything she writes very seriously.

 

[Aim1]

Linda Greenhouse of the New York Times (a very respected Supreme Court analyst) has recently written that she expects the Supreme Court to take an AWB case within a year, and to rule against such bans. Maybe this is antigun alarmism, but I would take anything she writes very seriously.

That's great news!

 

[natman]

SCOTUS has already granted cert (accepted), vacated the prior ruling that supported the ban, and remanded the Maryland AW ban case, Bianchi v Frosh, back to the lower court that issued it. This case, like every case that has supported AW bans, was decided using interest balancing. This meant that even though the ban might have violated the Second Amendment, the judges thought it would be in the best interests of society to uphold the ban. This option has been taken off the table with the criteria given in NYSRPA v Bruen. The state is going to find it extremely difficult to justify a ban using the current criteria of Text, History and Tradition.

One other case that might be the one to overturn all bans is Miller v Bonta, a similar case about California's AW Ban that's working its way through the courts in the Ninth Circuit.

 

[Aim1]

SCOTUS has already granted cert (accepted), vacated the prior ruling that supported the ban, and remanded the Maryland AW ban case, Bianchi v Frosh, back to the lower court that issued it. This case, like every case that has supported AW bans, was decided using interest balancing. This meant that even though the ban might have violated the Second Amendment, the judges thought it would be in the best interests of society to uphold the ban. This option has been taken off the table with the criteria given in NYSRPA v Bruen. The state is going to find it extremely difficult to justify a ban using the current criteria of Text, History and Tradition.

One other case that might be the one to overturn all bans is Miller v Bonta, a similar case about California's AW Ban that's working its way through the courts in the Ninth Circuit.

So, the court rules in Bianchi v Frosh that you cannot ban AWs but then Benitez in California rules that the same but then it goes to the full 9th Circuit which rules you can ban AWs and then you have a split in the circuits, no?



What circuit is Bianchi v Frosh?

 

[LiveLife]

With ... Bruen ... What is the chance of SCOTUS accepting an Assault Weapons Ban / High Capacity Magazine ban case this term or anytime soon?

The question really is, what cases in the Circuits are likely to be advanced to SCOTUS.

Likely many of these cases currently working their way through the judicial branch with many more instigated by the legislative/executive branches on a monthly basis:

• Various AW/magazine ban with no historical tradition analogous ban required by Bruen ruling - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-aw-magazine-ban.905531/page-11#post-12528071

• Definition/meaning of "firearm" set by Congress but ATF/executive branch over reach - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.php?threads/17-states-join-goa-gof-and-sue-atf’s-new-firearms-rule-on-80-percent-kits.908730/page-2#post-12572466

• "First in the nation" total handgun/ammunition ban with absolutely no history and tradition - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-legal-challenges.913421/page-3#post-12595428

As the founders of this nation framed, "Originalist" justices appointed by "We the People", the Supreme Court of the judicial branch in the footsteps of permanent enforcement for First and Fourteenth Amendments, IMHO we are approaching permanent enforcement for the "modernization" of the Second Amendment.

• The Supreme Court's Heller ruling decided the Second Amendment protected individual's right to self defense at home unattached to Militia service with modern, popular firearms in common use.

• The Supreme Court's Caetano ruling decided the Second Amendment protected modern arms not present during the signing of the Constitution/Bill of Rights.

• The Supreme Court's Bruen ruling decided the Second Amendment protected individual's right to self defense outside of home.

Are you seeing a trend here?

Various cases are making their way back to the Supreme Court for magazine bans and courts have already ruled magazines are "arms" protected by the Second Amendment along with "assault weapons" bans which courts have already ruled as "modern firearms" protected by the Second Amendment, notably Duncan and Miller - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-aw-magazine-ban.905531/page-12#post-12546529

Along with Boland and Renna ("First in the nation" handgun roster/ammunition bans lacking history and tradition) where preliminary injunctions were recently granted - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-legal-challenges.913421/page-3#post-12595428

Recently, ATF lost preliminary injunctions/temporary restraining orders for bump stocks, 80 percent/kits and final rule on pistol brace rule is being challenged with suppressor ban closely following - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.php?threads/17-states-join-goa-gof-and-sue-atf’s-new-firearms-rule-on-80-percent-kits.908730/page-2#post-12572466

Are you seeing another trend?

 

[Capybara]

So is there a split in the circuits if Benitez rules that an AWB is unconstitutional?

Not until the 9th rules on the States appeal against Benitez's ruling. Most think the 9th will follow their orders from Newsom and Bonta since the 9th is owned by California.

 

[Aim1]

Not until the 9th rules on the States appeal against Benitez's ruling. Most think the 9th will follow their orders from Newsom and Bonta since the 9th is owned by California.

So the 9th's ruling would be allowing an AWB, what circuit has ruled that an AWB is unconstitutional causing a split?

 

[AlexanderA]

What circuit is Bianchi v Frosh?

Maryland is in the 4th Circuit.

 

[LiveLife]

what circuit has ruled that an AWB is unconstitutional causing a split?

This is essentially moot as we didn't have Bruen prior to June of 2023. So the 2A cases that used the two step process cannot be used as examples for the future of 2A court rulings, especially by SCOTUS.

We are just seeing judicial response post Bruen play out in the courts. We will get to see how 9th Circuit rules on much anticipated Judge Benitez rulings on Miller/Duncan cases which are likely to be "unconstitutional" AGAIN as he already used "text and history" approach in line with Bruen ruling.

That means, if 9th Circuit overturns Judge Benitez rulings, SCOTUS will simply overturn 9th decisions.

Tick ... tock.

 

[JTHunter]

Linda Greenhouse of the New York Times (a very respected Supreme Court analyst) has recently written that she expects the Supreme Court to take an AWB case within a year, and to rule against such bans. Maybe this is antigun alarmism, but I would take anything she writes very seriously.

OR, could it be "misdirection" to get gun owners hopes up, then dash those hopes when the SC "declines" to take a case, or worse, the SC rules against gun owners due to the political pressure put on the Court? There could even be a change in the make-up of the Court before another 2A case gets to them ("stuffing", somebody retires or dies, etc.).

 

[Old Dog]

Just a feeling, but I'm feeling little confidence in the prospects of SCOTUS taking up any 2A cases anytime soon. Even less confidence in SCOTUS taking up an AWB or magazine capacity restriction case anytime soon.

Y'all are tracking just how slow these cases are progressing, right?

Judge Benitez has had ample opportunity to indicate how he's gonna rule on Bonta, but, crickets. Especially since WA's governor signed that state's AWB yesterday.

 

[LiveLife]

How long did it take Bruen to reach SCOTUS?

4 years since lower court ruling in 2018 to Bruen ruling in 2022 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_State_Rifle_&_Pistol_Association,_Inc._v._Bruen

But judge Benitez ruling on Miller/Duncan this year with likely automatic appeal to 9th may not take 4 years ... It's been just over a month since judge Benitez asked for historical evidence of ban and CA was unable to provide the evidence in a spreadsheet format that judge Benitez will likely use to support his rulings in compliance to Bruen - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...-aw-magazine-ban.905531/page-11#post-12528071

I anticipate we hear from judge Benitez pretty soon.

 

[Aim1]

This is essentially moot as we didn't have Bruen prior to June of 2023. So the 2A cases that used the two step process cannot be used as examples for the future of 2A court rulings, especially by SCOTUS.

We are just seeing judicial response post Bruen play out in the courts. We will get to see how 9th Circuit rules on much anticipated Judge Benitez rulings on Miller/Duncan cases which are likely to be "unconstitutional" AGAIN as he already used "text and history" approach in line with Bruen ruling.

That means, if 9th Circuit overturns Judge Benitez rulings, SCOTUS will simply overturn 9th decisions.

Tick ... tock.

I was of the belief that SCOTUS normally takes cases when their are split decisions in the circuits.


Why would they take this one when there isn't a split?

 

[AlexanderA]

I was of the belief that SCOTUS normally takes cases when their are split decisions in the circuits.

That's a strong reason for them to take a case, but not the only reason.

 

[natman]

OR, could it be "misdirection" to get gun owners hopes up, then dash those hopes when the SC "declines" to take a case, or worse, the SC rules against gun owners due to the political pressure put on the Court? There could even be a change in the make-up of the Court before another 2A case gets to them ("stuffing", somebody retires or dies, etc.).

Again, SCOTUS has already accepted an AW ban case, Bianchi v Frosh, vacated the ruling upholding the ban and remanded it back to the inferior courts to reconsider using the criteria set out in Bruen of Text, History and Tradition. Democrats have already threatened to pack the court over SCOTUS' correct interpretation of 2A and it hasn't slowed SCOTUS down. They are not going to accept any stalling on Bianchi getting a rapid review from the inferior court.

 

[Aim1]

Again, SCOTUS has already accepted an AW ban case, Bianchi v Frosh, vacated the ruling upholding the ban and remanded it back to the inferior courts to reconsider using the criteria set out in Bruen of Text, History and Tradition. Democrats have already threatened to pack the court over SCOTUS' correct interpretation of 2A and it hasn't slowed SCOTUS down. They are not going to accept any stalling on Bianchi getting a rapid review from the inferior court.

So they granted cert to this case and remanded it?


If Bianchi v. Frosh's ruling is inline with Bruen does SCOTUS not take it back up and it's the law of the land as if SCOTUS ruled on it itself like Bruen?