What's the Way Ahead for the Gun Industry?

[giggitygiggity]

I think most of us did not expect Trump to win the presidency. We expected Republicans to maintain control of Congress and figured the Senate would be tougher to control, but that Republicans would probably keep the Senate too. However, now Trump will assume office and Republicans control Congress and the Senate, what does the gun industry's and gun community's future look like?

I ask because I see both good and bad things coming from Republican control of both houses and the presidency. Granted, it's mostly good, but there are some potential downsides. For instance, I think we are mostly safe from ridiculous anti-gun executive orders and the passage of ridiculous gun control measures. I also think that we will see more pro-gun bills work their way up to the president. There is talk about repealing the NFA or at least making the purchasing of suppressors the same as title II firearms.

However, from an economic perspective, I wonder how the industry will look. For instance, during Obama's reign of terror, especially in the Sandy Hook aftermath, gun sales were through the roof. Countless new companies popped up because demand for guns has been so high over the past eight years. The market has been flooded with new companies, new guns, and affordable options. Obama's tyranny created a boom in the industry. Now that Republicans are in control, I wonder if demand will die down, those smaller manufacturers will come to a halt, and prices will go up as manufacturers try to make and sell fewer guns, but at a higher price point.

I hope that we continue to see more and more companies enter the gun industry and a good balance of supply and demand. I want this era of $500 ARs and $300 pistols to continue.

However, I also want to see all aspects of the NFA be repealed. Ideally, we should be able to do with our guns what we want without having to buy $200 permission slips to make SBRs, SBSs, and suppressors should be treated as any other accessories and not subjected to any laws of firearms.

And before any mods eagerly close this thread saying it is political or that we don't speculate on future events or make up some other reason to quash a good discussion, I ask that anyone who posts please not make this into a political commentary; instead, post info based on your experiences, history, or knowledge of the industry and economy. A lot of people on here are in the gun industry, have insight into the direction that the gun industry is heading, and might be able to speak to how things will shake out over the next 4 years.

 

[Mike OTDP]

It's going to be time to sell Something Else.

Something Elses to sell:
1. Pistols milled for mini red-dot sights. These are the New Big Thing.
2. Mini RDSs. The Trijicon RMR is the baseline, but something 20% smaller would be a better fit for most applications.
3. High-grade muzzle loaders, particularly traditional arms. Watch for a resurgence of interest in these. The 250th anniversiary of American independence is coming up, that'll help sales.
4. Revolvers. Maybe.
5. Pistols with electronic triggers. Most American shooters are accustomed to bad-to-fair triggers, electronics can deliver a good trigger.

The market for ARs is glutted, I'd expect to see at least one manufacturer go under.

 

[Walkalong]

Pistols milled for mini red-dot sights.

I'd like for more companies to offer this.

 

[hso]

I hope that we continue to see more and more companies enter the gun industry and a good balance of supply and demand. I want this era of $500 ARs and $300 pistols to continue.

Not likely. You should expect the field to narrow and small/marginally profitable businesses to disappear. The growth in gun shops and ranges might slow or reverse. Prices could stay stable on firearms, but that depends upon the supply vs. demand once collapsing demand causes an adjustment in the number of manufacturers. The past 8 years have been fantastic for the firearms industry, but the next 4 will be interestingly grim as the little guys or less stable guys fall by the wayside.

 

[larryh1108]

The past 8 years have been fantastic for the firearms industry, but the next 4 will be interestingly grim as the little guys or less stable guys fall by the wayside.

Totally agree. The next time we may see some "panic" buying is the next presidential race and that's IF Trump is seen as doing a bad job and the threat of a new president looms. Otherwise, we could see 8 years of relative calm in the gun world and the only thing that may stimulate sales is something new or different or a repeal of the NFA tax stamps. I find it odd that S&W chose to release their new Saint line at this time but they probably assumed (like most people) of a Dem win in the White House

 

[Ed Ames]

I think it really depends. If silencers and/or short barrels go from highly restricted and expensive fringe items to easily available, that opens a huge market for everything from threaded barrels to integrally suppressed guns. Ruger, Savage et al could offer "scout" rifles that added suppression without adding much or perhaps any length. Taurus could integrate a suppressor into the Curve.

If the "sporting purposes" concept is removed from the laws currently on the books, that would open up everything from Tokarevs that don't have lame safeties tacked on to 20ga Judge equivalents. imported shotguns with full size magazines. Imported bullpups.

I think the industry could to pretty well by selling items they currently cannot to people who don't even necessarily know what they have been missing.

My take is that the "manufacturers" who were taking established designs and assembling copies from outsourced parts are going to have a rough time because they don't have much value add. The manufacturers who can actually design and build working firearms from blank paper could do well.

 

[justice06rr]

I wonder if demand will die down, those smaller manufacturers will come to a halt, and prices will go up as manufacturers try to make and sell fewer guns, but at a higher price point.

Prices will most likely stay stable and remain low, not go up.

The firearms market and supply is currently pretty saturated and caught up. I'm even seeing 22lr ammo on local store shelves now, which is a good thing. Manufacturers will just produce the bare minimum amount of firearms they need to make since the demand will not be higher, seeing that we have republicans in the government for the next few years.[/quote]

 

[salt&battery]

Totally agree. The next time we may see some "panic" buying is the next presidential race and that's IF Trump is seen as doing a bad job and the threat of a new president looms. Otherwise, we could see 8 years of relative calm in the gun world and the only thing that may stimulate sales is something new or different or a repeal of the NFA tax stamps. I find it odd that S&W chose to release their new Saint line at this time but they probably assumed (like most people) of a Dem win in the White House

The saint is made by springfield armory not S&W. it is so easy to get confused by all the companies that make AR's lol

 

[I6turbo]

I expect there will be a glut of guns and ammo available for purchase in the next several months, and prices will eventually reflect that. So too will the futures of some manufacturers, as others have stated above.

 

[salt&battery]

Prices will most likely stay stable and remain low, not go up.

The firearms market and supply is currently pretty saturated and caught up. I'm even seeing 22lr ammo on local store shelves now, which is a good thing. Manufacturers will just produce the bare minimum amount of firearms they need to make since the demand will not be higher, seeing that we have republicans in the government for the next few years.

[/QUOTE]
22 RF will never be available in all the stores all the time like it used to be even if wayne la pierre gets elected president. hoarding has become an addiction and there are no rehabs for it

 

[Cannibul]

22 RF will never be available in all the stores all the time like it used to be even if wayne la pierre gets elected president. hoarding has become an addiction and there are no rehabs for it

It's starting become more and more available right now. I'd guess that the situation will resolve itself in the next 12 months or so, barring any outside problems.

I'd love to see the entire NFA and the ban on post '86 guns gone. If we can get SBR's suppressors and AOW's off the list that will be an awesome starting point. If we can get rid of the '86 ban then firearms with happy switches will be common. I know I'd gladly pay ~$800 + $200 stamp for a selective fire AR.

If the suppressors come off the NFA it will be golden. I'd expect that Ruger will tool up and offer an integrally suppressed 10/22 for somewhere around a $300-$350 street price. I'd be on that deal like white on rice. I'd expect to see suppressor prices fall by a minimum of 50%. If that happened I'd be in the market for at least a dozen more. It would be nice to have a rimfire suppressor for each of my threaded hosts. Then there's at least two .223 cans, a couple of .30 cal cans, 9 mm can, 10mm can, .45 can. I'd be in need of some threaded pistol barrels too.

I'd also want a couple of 12" AR uppers, a 12" threaded 10/22 barrel, a good pistol caliber lever action with a 14" barrel would be awesome.

If things come off the NFA the industry will be able to move in a new direction. If the post '86 ban is eliminated there will be a huge demand for select fire stuff. That will spur ammo sales also!

At a gun show years ago there was a dealer that had two Ruger 10/22 rifles that were select fire, one was integrally suppressed. Both were north of $30,000. Ruger would be able to offer them for under $500. Happy days!

 

[ThatGuyHank]

I agree with the NFA being a big contender in the next 4 years and I'd love to see SBR's and SBS's and suppressors run free in the wild. My only problem is that even if the NFA was to be fully repealed I wouldn't get to enjoy any of it considering I live in NJ and honestly there is no hope in sight for us

 

[hdwhit]

...what does the gun industry's and gun community's future look like?

Once people cease to be constantly terrified that Obama or Hillary are going to ban guns they will find they have other demands on their disposable income and as the OP suggested, I agree this will will slow down their purchases of guns leading to a general consolidation in the industry. Beyond that, I don't see any groundswell of support for significant changes to gun laws at the Federal Level so I don't expect any other major changes.

 

[DaisyCutter]

I'd really like to see a bit of a renaissance. Parhaps with the pressure of "Get the ban-potential stuff while you can" subsiding a bit, shooters will gravitate back to focusing on marksmanship, and a demand for quality hand made firearms will begin to resurface.

A $300 high capacity 9mm just isn't appealing to me. I have several duty guns, like this, for work, but they're just a mass produced tool to me. I've grown to appreciate precision more than volume, and craftsmanship more than a price point... when it comes to recreation.

I'd like to also see more collectible firearms become available, like many of the ones banned from importation, or slated for meltdown. When I hear about 100 year old 1911s being lined up for the furnace, it hurts my heart. That's American history.

I'd like to see serious enforcement of laws. When a guy commits an armed robbery with an illegal sawed off shotgun, has a felony prior, and takes a guilty plea, he needs more than probation. Every violent crime except homicide is probation eligible, it seems. A cop gets in a straight up fight while effecting arrest, and the suspect takes a guilty plea for aggravated assault, for probation. Most traffic violations carry a higher fine. I told the prosecutor, had i known I could go off punching cop and only pay $260, I'd have chosen to be the criminal and not the cop. Sorry for the mini rant.

 

[Twiki357]

I don’t know if it will actually happen, but there has been a lot of talk, including Trump, about universal recognition of CCW permits. That would be a giant step in the right direction. Add to that the removal (Not just reclassifying the same as a firearm purchase) of suppressors from the NFA and I would be running down the street jumping for joy.

 

[benEzra]

I suspect that people may get out to the range more, now that ammo is cheaper and one doesn't have to worry so much about using up a hard-to-replace commodity.

My ammo reserve has gotten quite low lately, due to other financial priorities combined with a few USPSA matches and shooting range trips, so I am likely to be restocking now at these lower prices. I may also start filling out my wish list a little, now that things are more affordable and future magazine availability is much more secure.

 

[macadore]

If we see a thaw in the relations with Russia we might see a substantial increase in cheap imports which will put downward pressure on domestic firearms prices.

 

[justice06rr]

22 RF will never be available in all the stores all the time like it used to be even if wayne la pierre gets elected president. hoarding has become an addiction and there are no rehabs for it

Well, nothing is ever as it used to be anyways. I don't expect to see 22lr in Walmart, so I hardly go look for it there. But most private gunshops have been slowly getting their supply consistently, at least in my area.

At least we have the next 4yrs of a republican administration so I'm hoping that firearms and ammo prices and availability will be pretty good.

 

[rskent]

It's going to be time to sell Something Else.

For sure. After spending the last year or so stocking up in anticipation of a Hillary presidency.

I think it might be time to pick up a 357 to replace the one I foolishly sold. Just for fun.

 

[Tirod]

The first issue with the gun industry is that if faces the same business pressures as any other. New businesses fail at a rate of over 85% in the first ten years. Many of the newer names we've seen come onto the market in this last term of office won't survive the next term of office. It has little to do with politics, aside from one issue with banks pulling out their financing. It simply has to do with catching the public's fancy and being affordable.

The AR market will continue to grow simply because younger buyers are oriented toward that. It's the video game influence. It will also drive more demand for alternatives - I, for one, would snap up an authentic AR180 reissue even made as badly as the originals IF it were competitively priced. it's also the same issue the handgun market faces - a lot of us are really tired of another black plastic gun. Since the offshore makers can and will supply all metal 1911's for under $600 I would plunk down just as much for authentic reproductions of older models - a Browning HP, HK P7, even an actual working Bren 10. CZ and SIG have a big part of that market and I see it growing. Check the market for used S&W 3Gen's - it's still rising and the collectible models are already over $1,000. The demand for all metal pistols is there, it's the prices being asked that depress it.

I'm going to say and risk the torches and pitchforks - if the frame was MIM would it really keep you from buying it? The 1911 market has been using cast frames for a long time and it's not hurting.

National Reciprocity won't really increase sales that much. What will likely increase are local CCW instructors who now need an larger accreditation, something recognizable at the national level, which tells the consumer they are getting a minimum standard in instruction that covers a lot more than a quicky 8 hour class and a few mags at a target 7 yards away. Since there is a huge decline in the numbers of citizens with prior service offering "professional level" CCW courses with advanced training standards would be a natural. I'm not sure "NRA" would be the signal for this to sell well - it's become too politicized by the opposition even tho that has been it's primary purpose for over a century. It needs a newer provenance with modern credibility. The NRA should launch it under it's own guise and just stand back.

Collecting American military arms might get a boost IF there were any to buy. Remains to be seen. A new issue sidearm would likely sell well, no telling how that will resolve with the current drama about buying polymer off the shelf.

Marksmanship has been a longstanding competitive endeavor - what will likely grow even more is tactically oriented. I would expect a demand for more CCW competition at the local level with state level finals. That can grow local clubs and create the demand for more ranges - which will likely not even have a 100 yard line for shooting. It's obviously where the trends are going but no one seems to recognize it. I wouldn't be at all surprised to have them set up in older warehouses to control noise and limit bullets exiting the premises. It's not hard to build tilt up concrete shooting lanes with ceilings.

Electronic triggers might become a thing but one aspect of men being men is they make social rankings where none existed. "Real Men" will still likely be pulling mechanical triggers. Electronic ignition has been around the block for decades and the concept of causing an "explosive" to detonate in the chamber by smacking it with a hammer is part and parcel of what we enjoy about firearms. That isn't to say that electronics isn't right around the corner. With infra red and visual confirmation, I could see targeting systems beyond just range compensation coming into military use - like a heads up display for a fighter pilot, a crosshair that lights up red when it's within an effective MOA resolution would signal when to pull the trigger. On another level it could even fire the weapon automatically and I would be surprised that hasn't already been attempted in prototype and tested by certain units. Right - you just hold down the trigger and when the optic sees a target it fires. Not sporting, necessarily, but the hit ratio would increase substantially. This is way beyond a simple knock sensor counting rounds for maintenance.

Lots of stuff on the horizon and like the AR, some of it will not be welcomed or embraced for a generation.

 

[Dog Soldier]

All markets are cyclical. The drop in panic buying was predictable. Back in the days following the JFK assassination it was very extreme. The good news is millions of new gun owners were born. We now have a very dedicated future generation that may have never joined our shooting fraternity other wise.

 

[Speedo66]

If the NFA part concerning suppressors is eliminated, you're going to see lots of homemade jobbies coming out of the woodwork.

Solvent catcher, really? lol

 

[svtruth]

Would love to see suppressors come out of the shadows
Some mating of electronics with firearms, I do not know what form this would take, sights, triggers?
Two issues that step over into legal/activism: products that recruit more owners, eg women, minorities
Nationwide reciprocity for CCW, coupled with some training to maintain the terrific safety record of CCW holders

 

[ColoradoShooter77]

I'd like to see short barreled rifles legalized, you know, a 10.5" upper with a rifle stock. Its the same weapon, whether its has a pistol brace or a rifle stock, pretty assanine.

I think the market will definitely go through some attrition, the small guys that got in during the boom will probably fail. Right now, there is a huge supply and falling demand, hence all the sales. Probably, within the year, it'll get back to a "pre-Obama" normal.

Its nice to see 22LR not selling out in an hour and powder/primer supplies are reamaining steady.

 

[J-Bar]

This is an interesting discussion, thanks for starting it.

Thoughts from a non-expert:

Anti-gun and anti-Second Amendment groups continually point to the horror of "gun violence". They will attract some irrational folks to their goal of eliminating guns, but I think they will convince many more rational people that the world really is a dangerous place and that protecting one's self is a priority. Proof? The antis have been at work for quite a while, but there are more firearms in private hands now than ever before, concealed carry is popular...who would have thought even a few years ago that we could discuss getting the NFA repealed and having silencers on the LGS shelves?

Twenty years ago you might find a Ruger Vaquero in a gun store. Now you can find a variety of historical copies not only at your LGS but available through internet sales. Not everyone is interested in percussion guns, but the variety available from Uberti, Pietta, Pedersoli these days is remarkable compared to what was available not that long ago. And Ruger is still making a Vaquero. So that market is still growing. It has been my experience that once a person gets a gun and starts shooting it, more guns get purchased. With more and more folks deciding to carry concealed, that increases the potential market for additional sales of all types of guns.

Firearms for hunting are becoming more specialized. When I was a kid, you could get an '06 with a fixed 4 power Weaver scope for deer, or a pump shotgun for birds. Look at the variety now! No one hunted turkeys when I was a kid; there weren't enough birds to permit it, and waterfowl were fewer. Now the Turkey has almost become our national bird, and the Robertson family has made a nice living with duck calls. Shotguns designed specifically for knocking gobblers over, support equipment like camouflage gear and calls, long range rifles, tactical scopes, new cartridges, and hours of hunting programs on TV...it's all comparatively recent. Pretty good evidence that firearms for hunting will continue to be made and purchased.

Finally, Beretta has been making firearms and parts for nearly 500 years. Proof that a well managed gun manufacturing company can survive changes in culture and politics. So I'm not really worried about the manufacturers. The well managed ones that make quality firearms will continue to do very well.