When a new cartridge is rolled out?

Status
Not open for further replies.

gunnutery

Member
Joined
Jul 30, 2009
Messages
1,682
Location
Iowa
http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2014/05/09/ammo-prices-05092014/

You 300 BLK people need to get some more vendors on board–that stuff is sparse in bulk.

The above quote is from the linked article about their weekly ammo price comparison. When I read it, it instantly made me wonder about how long it actually takes certain cartridge designs to catch on. The 300blk is probably about 2-4 years old in terms of being commercially available yet buying in bulk seems to be an issue.

It's probably not completely fair to the 300blk or any other newer cartridge to question it's availability when we've had 2 major panics in the last 6 years.

However, I'm still curious to know about the logistics of what happens when a new cartridge is introduced and how it either latches on or dies a slow death. I know the market can be really fickle, but in your observations, what are some successful and unsuccessful examples?
 
I've had that problem with 300BLK. I figured it might take a while for it to be available in bulk, but I'm surprised how hard it is to find. Luckily I load my own, but still. Can't say I've ever seen large quantities of 300blk for sale. Only ones I ever see are 20-round boxes, and they aren't cheap. Mine has never had factory ammo through it.
 
They make up a new cartridge. It has power and speed improvements over the older stuff, magazine writers puff it up, and the first few fans gush knowingly over it. The lead gun nuts buy into it to see if reality is actual, but they have the money and it's just this year's New Cartridge of the Month, it's not really a commitment to them.

More hype, then some come out with real world results, the movement grows, the gun fans hear of it, read up, and they see it has advantages. They buy it - which is the first wave of acceptance, their purchases and testimony are a commitment, and they influence others. The second wave hears it, gets to try it in their buddies gun, and they buy.

Now it's rolling, and that's when the calls for bulk ammo start. Why? They are all high round count shooters, and ammo costs are high. Reality does intrude - and the benchmark of all cartridge popularity contests is military surplus bulk pricing. The problem? It's NOT military, there is NO surplus, and bulk pricing? They make enough in a few days to sell all year, compared to the machines at Lake City running 24/7 at the height of the Iraq conflict.

Everybody wants 10c a round when that can't even be done on contract to the military in million round lots. And that is because the demands for bulk are unrealistic. It's whining about cheap ammo from people who often won't even reload for themselves, and won't even consider buying in 50,000 round lots or pallet loads - where the bulk pricing really starts.

You don't get bulk pricing buying two boxes off the shelf at Bigbox. With no education in mass production, no background in economics, and no experience in doing so, the complaints mount until the backlash sets in - "I won't buy X caliber, you can't get bulk ammo!"

Well, duh. It's not military surplus.

"This stuff is too pricey, I'm selling my stick and shooting my GI cartridge!"

Well, duh. It's not military surplus.

"No of the ammo makers are supporting it, they won't sell bulk ammo!"

Well, duh. There's no contracts for 50 million rounds. A month. It's not military, there's no surplus.

It's been ten years since the introduction of the 6.5 Grendel, and 6.8SPC. Both are doing about as well as can be expected. Neither is a huge military supplier, and we have yet to see any overruns or surplus on 6.8, which is - albeit in a small way. As for .300 BO - guys, it's been around for over 30 years as the .300 Whisper and even before that, as a wildcat to get around the original Three Gun rules, which they outlawed. It's no game changer.

You won't ever see bulk ammo for these for another 5 years. All the foreign promises and the ramp up for military use are always long range, and nobody yet has followed thru on the promises of steel or polymer cased ammo in 1,000 round boxes in pallet loads at your local gun store. When it's cheap enough gun store owners to wheel the pallet on their show room floor, it will happen. That has been a long time since, even for bulk military surplus.

Why? Because we will buy it even if it's NOT cheap. Panic has intruded it's ugly head, common sense flew out the window, and the ammo makers know a niche cartridge when they tool up for it. "We can't get bulk ammo!" means nothing on the internet. Place a truck load order for 1,500 locations - a month - and see what pricing you can get.

The real problem is that a few whiners on the internet don't constitute real consumer demand. People waving cash and legitimate purchase orders wanting truckloads are bulk buyers - not the 1,000 round a month guys, who are actually few and far between.

Bulk orders = bulk transport. Scale is everything, if you want bulk you likely have employees, a dock, and a warehouse. Anything less is just piddling around.
 
.300 AAC isn't widely available because it isn't a mainstream cartridge. It's only real attraction is it's performance in a suppressed rifle. As long as suppressors are considered NFA devices, it will never become a mainstream cartridge.
 
As we all know, all ammo is scarce and expensive. I wouldn't look for .300 BLK to be offered in bulk until the pipeline fills up with the more common ammo types.
 
I see calibers such as the 300 blackout as "designer" ammunition. It fills a need for a very small group of users. Even with the people using it who have no need for it, it will never be mainstream.
 
You need firearms manufacturers to successfully market and sell guns in that caliber in order for any cartridge to become a success (and not always then, eg. .45GAP)

I'm sure you weren't around back in the 1980's but before wide-scale introduction and adoption of "wonder-nine" pistols, 9mm ammo actually cost more than .45ACP! Thank Glock, S&W & Beretta for lowering the price of 9mm and making it available in bulk for the consumer.
 
I'm wondering if the .17 Winchester Super Magnum is going to be still born. The only guns I know of which are chambered for it, are the Savage B.Mag and the Winchester 1885 Low Wall.
 
and won't even consider buying in 50,000 round lots or pallet loads - where the bulk pricing really starts.

Who sells them to individuals? Where do I find prices of such lots?
That's only ~2 years supply for us.
 
I am one of those who are part of the problem of new calibers coming and going before catching on. I have been really hesitant to buy into anything new. In defense of this, I shoot mostly handgun calibers and I haven't seen much in the way of new calibers that filled any need I didn't already have filled.
 
I'm wondering if the .17 Winchester Super Magnum is going to be still born. The only guns I know of which are chambered for it, are the Savage B.Mag and the Winchester 1885 Low Wall.
__________________

It looks that way, unfortunately. I would've like to have seen a Single Six or Single Nine in .17 Win Sup Mag, but I honestly expected it would have been included in Ruger's American rifle line up by now. You can't even get a Handi Rifle for it yet.
 
I'm sure you weren't around back in the 1980's but before wide-scale introduction and adoption of "wonder-nine" pistols, 9mm ammo actually cost more than .45ACP! Thank Glock, S&W & Beretta for lowering the price of 9mm and making it available in bulk for the consumer.

I was around, but I was young enough that I didn't know much about guns other than the A-Team blew up a bunch of stuff with guns without actually killing anyone :). That's pretty crazy that 9mm cost more than .45acp. I never knew that. I was old enough to understand that the military switched from 1911s to M9s and then shortly after, the law enforcement community.
 
They make up a new cartridge. It has power and speed improvements over the older stuff, magazine writers puff it up, and the first few fans gush knowingly over it. The lead gun nuts buy into it to see if reality is actual, but they have the money and it's just this year's New Cartridge of the Month, it's not really a commitment to them.

More hype, then some come out with real world results, the movement grows, the gun fans hear of it, read up, and they see it has advantages. They buy it - which is the first wave of acceptance, their purchases and testimony are a commitment, and they influence others. The second wave hears it, gets to try it in their buddies gun, and they buy.

Now it's rolling, and that's when the calls for bulk ammo start. Why? They are all high round count shooters, and ammo costs are high. Reality does intrude - and the benchmark of all cartridge popularity contests is military surplus bulk pricing. The problem? It's NOT military, there is NO surplus, and bulk pricing? They make enough in a few days to sell all year, compared to the machines at Lake City running 24/7 at the height of the Iraq conflict.

Everybody wants 10c a round when that can't even be done on contract to the military in million round lots. And that is because the demands for bulk are unrealistic. It's whining about cheap ammo from people who often won't even reload for themselves, and won't even consider buying in 50,000 round lots or pallet loads - where the bulk pricing really starts.

You don't get bulk pricing buying two boxes off the shelf at Bigbox. With no education in mass production, no background in economics, and no experience in doing so, the complaints mount until the backlash sets in - "I won't buy X caliber, you can't get bulk ammo!"

Well, duh. It's not military surplus.

"This stuff is too pricey, I'm selling my stick and shooting my GI cartridge!"

Well, duh. It's not military surplus.

"No of the ammo makers are supporting it, they won't sell bulk ammo!"

Well, duh. There's no contracts for 50 million rounds. A month. It's not military, there's no surplus.

It's been ten years since the introduction of the 6.5 Grendel, and 6.8SPC. Both are doing about as well as can be expected. Neither is a huge military supplier, and we have yet to see any overruns or surplus on 6.8, which is - albeit in a small way. As for .300 BO - guys, it's been around for over 30 years as the .300 Whisper and even before that, as a wildcat to get around the original Three Gun rules, which they outlawed. It's no game changer.

You won't ever see bulk ammo for these for another 5 years. All the foreign promises and the ramp up for military use are always long range, and nobody yet has followed thru on the promises of steel or polymer cased ammo in 1,000 round boxes in pallet loads at your local gun store. When it's cheap enough gun store owners to wheel the pallet on their show room floor, it will happen. That has been a long time since, even for bulk military surplus.

Why? Because we will buy it even if it's NOT cheap. Panic has intruded it's ugly head, common sense flew out the window, and the ammo makers know a niche cartridge when they tool up for it. "We can't get bulk ammo!" means nothing on the internet. Place a truck load order for 1,500 locations - a month - and see what pricing you can get.

The real problem is that a few whiners on the internet don't constitute real consumer demand. People waving cash and legitimate purchase orders wanting truckloads are bulk buyers - not the 1,000 round a month guys, who are actually few and far between.

Bulk orders = bulk transport. Scale is everything, if you want bulk you likely have employees, a dock, and a warehouse. Anything less is just piddling around.
I dont have much too add, but this pretty much sums it up.
 
the problem is that there really are no new cartridges.just new shapes and sizes. they wont do anything diff than the old ones did. the short fat mags all fell by the wayside.sure they were good rounds but they didnt do anything better than the old ones they were patterned after did.

the new 17 rimfires are fine but do they really do anything better or cheaper than the 223, 22 mag or hornet?

the 300 blk out/whisper whatever whatchamcallit rounds are just a way to get a short action 30 cal round in a ar. very fun im sure but whats it good for?maybe plinkin sum pigs and deer in the head? i can do that with a 30-30.or even a 7.62x39.

ive nothing against these new rounds. im just saying dont be surprised yu cant find them at a cheap price.
 
the short fat mags all fell by the wayside.sure they were good rounds but they didnt do anything better than the old ones they were patterned after did.

The WSM line of short, fat mags have only existed since 2001, thirteen years. In that short time the 300 and 270 WSM's have been some of the fastest sellers in history and the 300 WSM will likely surpass the 300 WM in popularity within a few more years. In addition it has taken a huge bite out of 30-06 sales. It is a very good round offering several advantages over both 300 WM and 30-06.

It takes time for some rounds to catch on. The 270 was a huge commercial flop for roughly 25 years and was nearly dropped by Winchester before finally catching on. Had Jack O'Connor not adopted the round and started writing about it the 270 would be dead today.

The 45-70 was a failure that had a short life as a military cartridge starting in 1873. It was never used as a buffalo hunting round like it gets credit for and was all but dead within 15 years. Marlin revived the round in 1973 and with slick, but deceptive advertising convinced people they were buying a round with historical significance. Even with that the round was still a slow seller until recent years where it has taken off. I'd bet it has been used more in the 21st century than the 19th and 20th centuries combined. It took almost 120 years to catch on.
 
I think the 300 BLK's fate is going to be tied to silencer reform at both the State and Federal level and NFA wait times. It is the hands down best suppressed choice for the AR platform.

If we managed to get silencers out of the NFA (either treated as ordinary Title 1 firearms or even as cash-and-carry gun accessories) I would expect 300BLK sales to boom.

Mike
 
we will see about the short mags. they are good rounds and burn powder more effiecently. it will be 10 years before we see if they made it. if they do, great! hopefully brass will be cheaper and more available for them at that time.. as it is im stickin to what i know.


the 45-70 does have nostalgia on its side. i like it but can do the same thing with less powder and lead.

i would guess with the prevalence of trapdoor rifles it may of shot a buff or two. but prob not in great numbers due to its time line.
 
Several years ago when the 260 Remington came out I read that it was actually a private venture investment where the investors went to Remington and offered them "X" amount of money to load ammo and build rifles. Apparently this is possible. The other rifle manufactures went and built a few rifles also.

Like all investments they either take-off...languish in so-so ness...or go phhht!

Makes sense...could you imagine if investors made a nickel a round of every 40SW round or $50 for every pistol made?

I'm not declaring this as fact...I was enamored and still am by the .260 Remington so at the time of its intro I read as much as I could about it. I do remember reading the article but the exact details have escaped my memory.
 
The ammo manufacturers aren't going to make cartridges if there isn't consumer demand. The gun manufactures just don't have the ability for force a new round on the market. If Glock, the most popular handgun manufacturer in the world, couldn't make 45 GAP popular the folks pushing the 300 blk can't either. I remember about 2 years ago there was a guy who worked for one of the companies who developed the 300 blk who was posting on all the gun boards saying the major ammo manufacturers were on board and soon 300 blk ammo was going to be as inexpensive as .223. Has anyone heard from him in the past year. LOL
 
Well, 458 socom has been hangin around for a few years, and SAAMI still hasn't "picked it up".... as a result, only SBR and one other small company outside of Detroit make factory ammo for it.

I think the faster that SAAMI picks up a cartridge, and factory ammo gets produced in sufficient quantity.... that the sooner a given chambering will "catch on".

5.7x28 , 17 WSM, and 300 BLK are all great cartridges that are being significantly hampered by ammo availability. At least 300 blk is easily reloadable, as is 458 socom. 5.7x28 is reloadable, but components and tooling are quite scarce. the 17 WSM guys are just straight outta luck....sadly.

Sorry for the tiny bit of drift, but I thought it might add a little knowing that its not just you 300blk guys having issues !
 
They make up a new cartridge. It has power and speed improvements over the older stuff, magazine writers puff it up, and the first few fans gush knowingly over it. The lead gun nuts buy into it to see if reality is actual, but they have the money and it's just this year's New Cartridge of the Month, it's not really a commitment to them

Was in complete agreement up to this point. After that people start to buy into the new cartridge only to realize it does exactly what it promises, to be only slightly better than cartridges that have been around for 100 years. And then the mentality "if it aint broke don't fix it" pop up and people began selling off their rifles in the new fangled cartridge and it quickly becomes last years failure. Such was the luck of the .327, ALL the WSM rounds, 38 super, etc etc.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top