Where are the AR's and parts?

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CALL91145

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OK. So the various manufacturers have been cranking out lowers, BCG's, uppers and magazines full bore since 2008. And redoubled their efforts since Newtown. Probably running 24/7. But yet delivery has been a very slow trickle at best. Where is all this stuff? Are they just sitting on it until they find out what is going to happen in Washington? What exactly is their strategy here? You have to know that it doesn't take long to make a 30rd magazine. The various manufacturers have to be cranking out tens of thousands of these daily. If I am way off base here please correct me. I'm not implying anything here, just wondering where this stuff is. Just seems like there should be more goods moving by now.
 
My guess is the huge backlog of orders - I'm thinking at least six months out until supply starts to catch up.
 
Well, demand is insane and modern production based on JIT inventory isn't suited to meet a spike like this.

I actually didn't give too much thought, initially, to finishing some partial AR builds right after Newtown, other than, "Well, the pols will not let this opportunity go unused." By early January, I was looking my bonus check in the eye and trying to find some standard aluminum AR mags. Everyone was sold out!

I installed a browser plug-in that alerts me when websites change and linked it to some web pages like PSA. One morning, I was alerted to PSA for some D&H aluminum mags changing from out-of-stock to in-stock. I bought 10 of them and texted my brother-in-law. 15 minutes later, by the time he got around to checking the site, they were all sold out.

Over on ARFCOM, that is pretty similar to others who are keeping an eye out. Anything coming in-stock on websites is immediately sold out, if the website even bothers updating statuses (a lot of the smaller companies require call-ins because they're so busy and their sites aren't suited to handle the volume of orders they would get from updated stock supply vs. demand).

Bottom line is the supply is very limited and the demand right now is nearly unlimited from all appearances. Hell, the demand has broken the supply line in several weak areas.

The plug-in I use is Update Scanner for Firefox.
 
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Tactical Machining began a pre-order campaign with Brownells, on December 20th for their stripped TM15 lowers. It was big news for this small shop in Florida that turns out high quality AR components. Their first big distributor.

Less than a week after Sandy Hook, that is.

I logged onto Brownells that morning and noticed the new banner offering pre-orders of this small manufacturer's stripped lowers. Knowing what was about to hit the fan, I placed a pre-order for some of these lowers.

I then monitored the FB page of Tactical Machining and I called and chatted with the Brownell's staff many times over the past several weeks.

What happened was... well you know... things got out of hand... fast.

Tactical Machining and Brownells had to quickly cut the pre-order campaign short and shut down all orders, back orders, pre-orders, etc. because this up and coming manufacturer was getting hit hard with thousands upon thousands of pre-orders through Brownells alone.

Tactical Machining makes these stripped lowers in batches of 1,200 and ships them to Brownell's in lots of 600 per pallet/shipment. They updated their FB page when the first 600 and second 600 went out. Mind you, the agreement between Brownell's and TM was in the works before Sandy Hook and the date was simply set for 5 days before Christmas. Who knows when the two companies began speaking about the December promotion, but I have to believe TM began working on that first run of 1,200 well before the 20th.

I received that 12/20/12 order earlier this week (over a month out). If their serial numbers are simply sequential numerations that equal the number of serial numbers that they've ever produced (first lower = S/N 00001, fiftieth lower = S/N 00050), then the lowers I received are WELL within the first 7,000 lowers that this little shop has EVER produced.

Depending upon whom you hear the number from, Brownell's took in excess of 15,000-16,000 pre-orders for TM15 stripped lowers in just a few days time before it all had to be cut off. If that little shop can only produce 1,200 lowers every 6 weeks, this one single pre-order promotion won't be entirely fulfilled for almost a year and a half.

Now I'm looking for deals on parts. :evil:
 
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I dont think you guys are getting what I mean. I'm as fully aware of what is going on as most everyone on this board is. You just arent hearing alot of people receiving their orders. It just appears to me that by now more orders would be getting filled. I realize that machined steel parts take longer to produce. But going back to my original example of Magazines, I would think their production would have to be catching up to demand by now. And maybe there is more stuff moving out there than we realize. I am not really waiting on anything myself, just curious. This situation is definitely one for the books, just crazy.
 
CoRoMo, that is the kind of info I was looking for. I know demand is unbeleivable. but those numbers, even being a small piece of the pie, really tell alot.
 
That shows just one manufacturer and how they were burdened with their portion of today's panic buying. That one manufacturer has an entire year, to a full year and a half before they can take another single solitary order.

Add up the manufacturers like PSA, Spikes, Aero, Stag, LMT, Wilson, Baer, Noveske, Del-Ton, S&W, BCM, Bushmaster, Model1, Windham, POF, Colt, Huldra, Daniel Defense, DPMS, Sabre, Armalite, Ruger, Rock River, Olympic, CMMG, and all the many, many, many more manufacturers that produce AR15 rifles, or lowers, or uppers, or any AR parts, etc.

Many of those names, if not all, received a tsunami of orders before they cut it off short.
 
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Have you ever wondered how many guns are being sold, or at least ordered, that will never or very rarely be shot. Simply because of the "fear of the ban" mentality? I personly know a number of people that had no interest in owning a gun until they found out they might not ever be able to buy one again. It will be interesting to watch this unfold over the next few years.
 
They got bought. It seems everybody had a "build/s" going on for like decades.. for resale of course. Where do you think all those magazines went?. for resale but now that the supply chain is picking back up, those better prices are the ones vied for, not the $80 mags for sale on the classifieds.
 
Call91145,

On those magazines I ordered, I put in 2 orders of 5 each (I hesitated for a second on ordering 10 and it cost me an extra $7 in shipping). Both orders were placed on 1/10/13. One of the shipments arrived around 1/24 and the other arrived on 2/4. Just 2 days before that, I managed to snag one of their PSA Premium Classic Lower Build kits during the 10 minute window that they showed in stock and then out of stock (that's about how long you have to find stock and make an order on most AR parts). That shipment arrived sometime between when I got the first box of magazines and the last box.

People are getting their orders, it's just that stock is trickling in and you literally have a handful of minutes to put in an order. If you aren't hearing about people getting parts, you're just not hearing from the people who ordered them in before Newtown or snagged an opportunity in their short windows of time since then.
 
The people who purchased a firearm due to fear of legislation, if they never owned one before, are prime opportunities for responsible firearm owners to mint more enthusiasts. They already paid the price of admission; take 'em out shooting. I'd hope the increased sales and also sales to NEW owners sends a big signal to the political class.
 
That makes sense. I am sure that I have underestimated the sheer scope of this situation. I thought it was bad in '08 and '09. And it was. It's just to bad that there will be hoarders out there with way more than they need, and then there is the poor bloke who really wants one that wont be able to afford one or even find one. And so it goes,huh.
 
The people who purchased a firearm due to fear of legislation, if they never owned one before, are prime opportunities for responsible firearm owners to mint more enthusiasts. They already paid the price of admission; take 'em out shooting. I'd hope the increased sales and also sales to NEW owners sends a big signal to the political class.
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Actually I know several people that were up to go shooting who did not own a firearm. Some got more interested when they heard about the gun control pushes. A couple were anti fence sitters that I had almost convinced.
Sadly I told them they had waited too long and it would need to wait. I am unable to purchase ammunition at decent prices, find any in certain calibers, or find the type I would want.
I won't be shooting up my supply if I don't feel confident I can replace it.


I imagine many that did purchase a firearm in the panic won't be doing a lot of shooting either. Ammunition is limited and over priced. With such high demand retailers see no incentive to have sales of ammunition to encourage purchases, which were widespread in early December.
I called a Walmart about a completely unrelated product and they immediately assumed it was about ammunition and asked if it was about ammo. I said no, and told them what it was about.
Apparently they are getting swarmed with calls for ammunition, making up such a large volume of thier calls they actually ask me if its about ammunition when its not even firearm or ammunition related.
With that kind of demand I am not even going to try. Shooting is on hold for awhile.
The local gun stores that do have ammunition primarily have just high end defensive or premium rounds that cost a lot and are certainly not something I would be using to take some new people that wouldn't notice a difference in 1 moa or 10 moa to put holes in paper.
 
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Even if ammo were available, I still think there are alot of guns being sold that will be shot very little. I like the aspect of new people being introduced to the hobby however. That is a very positive aspect of this.
 
Last week a friend picked her AR up from the shop. When she put her name on the list the clerk told her it was a six page list. When she picked up her gun the list was ten pages. So maybe the guns are really getting to the LGS. They just don't sit there.They already have a destination.

Mark
 
I have no interest in an AR but I did put my name on one of the lists in late December. I was called last week to pick up my AR.

I let it go to the next guy but was please they were still getting some.
 
I am still waiting on my Model 1 .300blk upper that I ordered on 12-20-12. Status has been updated from Waiting to be Processed to Being Processed so there is a little movement somewhere. I just cant wait any longer lol.
 
As OP asks I too am wondering what is going on. One hears of an odd AR here & there coming in, but almost everyone I talk to says the same thing, "Where are they?" How can they 'not be anywhere' all at the same time? I too am wondering if production is not really at full tilt, but being withheld.
 
As far as I know, gremlins took all the AR parts, mags, and ammo....

they might return them back to the public in about 6months
 
Also don't forget that for some of these items, the manufacturer doesn't make all the parts. D and H mags might not make the springs or the followers so they are at the mercy of the supply of those companies. Rifle makers are waiting for all kinds of parts like bolts and such.

Sent from my DROID RAZR
 
How can they 'not be anywhere' all at the same time? I too am wondering if production is not really at full tilt, but being withheld.
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Did you read some of the posts above yours? Every last AR15 that is coming off the production line is already "owned" by a customer somewhere. There are no extras slipping through to the LGS rack. Every rifle or lower that will be produced this next September is already "owned" by the guy who ordered and paid for it last month whether he's a dealer or a customer. If a dealer is setting on a stack of AR rifles, he doubled or tripled the price to see just how badly the buyers really want one and to pay his bills when they are all sold because he won't be able to get anymore afterward. Those are the only truly available rifles anywhere; the ones priced like you see on GunBroker. They weren't allocated to a buyer and they were likely ordered before Sandy Hook.

If you don't believe that "that many" guns are or were actually being bought up, I present this to you all. Here in Colorado we don't use NICS, we use CBI and the dealers all across the state can log in and see how many buyers have been entered into the systems before the customer they are about to enter; the queue. All these years, the most any dealer would see 'in queue' were a hundred or more IF there was a gunshow taking place in the state somewhere. This would cause a wait time for the customer of about an hour and a half. Well, since Sandy Hook that queue has held over 10,000 customers waiting to be background checked. This means there is a wait time measured in days. And it hasn't let up for a month and a half. This means there are many tens of thousands of guns being bought up in Colorado alone. And the momentum isn't slowing down at all. I just checked with a local dealer... this very morning there are just under 10,000 customers 'in queue' and the expected wait time for that last customer is over a week from now. This simply means that there are 10,000 firearms today sitting at dealers in this state that are already sold and the numbers keep chugging along. If we just take today's numbers (10,000 gun purchases get cycled through CBI in 7 days), it has been 8 weeks since Sandy Hook which equals 80,000 firearms sold in the last 8 weeks, just in Colorado. The very last 10,000 of the 80,000 are still sitting at the dealer waiting for the background check to finish. 80,000 panic transactions will clear out every last AR15 in the entire state.

Read my post #5 and post #17. Many gun dealers are pre-selling these rifles. This means that they have them on order/backorder with their distributor and the local customer has already paid for one or is on a list claiming one. And these lists are LONG. When that dealer gets ANY in, they have either been paid for or claimed and the customers are called/notified that their rifle is finally in. In such a case, you will never see any of them available on the rack when you enter that store. Not for a long time to come anyhow. Any that might be in the 'back room' are claimed, were claimed weeks ago and maybe even paid for.

As I described with the TM lowers, they have many thousands of lowers claimed and paid for by guys like you and me that will simply wait out the backorder time frame. It might be July of 2014 before TM can make a lower that ISN'T allocated to a Brownell's customer. This is also true for ANY and ALL manufacturers of AR rifles, lowers, uppers, and parts. Their larger customers (distributors, dealers, etc.) placed huge orders (backorders) a month ago and those orders won't be filled for a long, long time. But those orders, those products are already spoken for; either a customer with a name on a list will get one or it will be tossed onto an auction or priced the same and someone desperate will get it. These lists of customers who claimed and/or paid for an item is longer than any of us can imagine. Finding a regularly priced AR15 sitting available on a dealer's rack is like finding an unopened bottle of water floating in the Pacific Ocean.

The rifles coming off the line at Spike's Tactical are already allocated to a dealer and customer somewhere who ordered them many weeks ago. The rifles that will roll off Spike's line in June were ordered weeks ago and those June 2012 rifles/lowers/uppers are already 'owned' for all intents and purposes.

The backorder lists got SO big that many manufacturers just simply shut it down and refused to take more backorders. We have to realize what that type of scale would look like. A manufacturer can easily tally the number of AR lowers they can make per week, per month, per year. When a manufacturer received enough orders the week after Sandy Hook to exceed their production limit for an entire year and a half, they shut down the ordering system because they knew it will take them deep into next year just to fill the orders they received in a matter of days.

Production has not be withheld. All production is already destined to an end user somewhere and therefore will not show up on the rack at the LGS.
 
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Parts are all around. It's simply a matter of timing catching them before they sell out. There is HUGE demand. And by HUGE I mean "oh my lord, it says AR15 on the box so i'm grabbing it and the other 10 in stock" huge.

To get what you want, you just have to be diligent at this point, and have some luck.

There are lots more just like you watching everything too.

For what it's worth, I jumped in on parts just as the panic really kicked into full gear, watched sites gain and lose inventory, and pieced together what I wanted. I paid just a bit more at times, but i'd rather pay a bit more and get it then wait until ? and hope I can still find it/obtain it.
 
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