Do Ammo Prices Fluctuate, or just go up?

[Bear2000]

I'm still very new to this hobby (about seven months), so I really don't know the answer to this question. I've noticed prices increasing since I started shooting in September and have listened to discussions here and elsewhere. I've been reloading almost as long as I've been shooting, and have also watched the prices of components go up.

So, for those of you've who've been shooting a lot longer than me, have you seen temporary spikes in ammo prices that then go down, if never to their pre-spike levels?

 

[P5 Guy]

There has been a pretty steady rise in the price of ammo for the last 18-20 months.
Blame the WOT or the Chinese, but most all commodities are on the rise price wise.

 

[FieroCDSP]

The prices used to fluctuate. Now they just go up. I don't anticipate any kind of real drop until the war is over.

 

[SoCalShooter]

Think of ammo prices like gas prices and you have your answer.

 

[rust collector]

It's a commodity, subject to all the fluctuations of our economic system including the rise and fall of the dollar, environmental concerns, demand here and in other markets for "strategic metals".

In real terms, the price of ammunition has until recently been very low. Trade with the eastern bloc countries put vast quantities of materiel on the market, and put the squeeze on domestic product prices as well.

The price will climb for awhile, as wholesale prices have been rising for at least a couple years. Then the market will correct, and we'll be off on another ride. We may never see some of the prices return to previous levels, however, as inflation moves the target. My worry is that we will lose the economies of scale as fewer people enjoy the shooting sports, so get out there and get new shooters involved. It's not expensive for them--they never knew the good old days of cheap ammo.

 

[Ala Dan]

Expect ammo prices to continue to rise over the next few months~!

 

[bensdad]

I'm too new to shooting (less than 10 years) to remember it, but I've seen others post about ammo prices in the 70s and 80s being insane.

 

[CBS220]

The dollar is currently weak, and the price of metals is not helping.

The price will eventually fall... somewhat.

 

[bhp9mm]

it just keep going up i hope it will go down and all this other stuff like gas will go down again if the war ever ends ammo may go down they are useing alot so it may go down one day

 

[evan price]

When I started shooting 9mm in the 90's it was ten bucks a box.
Over the past ten years it dropped below half that.
Now it is back up again.

I don't expect it to fall back to where it was ever again.

If you reload you can control your cost a bit better.

 

[Bear2000]

Thanks for the info...

...I would imagine that it might drop sometime in the future, but who knows when. Guess I'll keep stocking up.

 

[another okie]

The long term historical trend for all prices is to rise. There are exceptions, such as computer chips, but they are rare.

 

[shadowalker]

And things like electronics tend to get cheaper because the materials get cheaper, the cost to assemble them goes down or they make it up by convincing people to buy extended warranties .

I don't see any of that happening for ammunition any time soon.

 

[gym]

P5 is right, stocks down commodities up, gold oil, metals, all at new highs, I trade stocks, my cousin is a Commodities Broker on the floor in Chicago. Expect a retracement when the stocks begin to go back above the 2300 area on the Nasdeq, trouble is that they never go back down to where they were.

 

[Dr. Peter Venkman]

When prices are thought to be going up, people buy more diminishing the supply, thus making the price go up. It's a perpetuating cycle.

 

[TAB]

as long as gas prices keep going up, every thing will go up along with it.

 

[Dark_Harvest]

i have seen ammo prices DOUBLE in the last 3 years.

 

[LawBot5000]

Three things:
-ammo prices fluctuate. This is normal because the stuff they are made from goes up and down and various plants close and open. They went down in the mid 2000s and have gone up since.
-the dollar goes continuously down. They rejiggered the CPI once in the early reagan years and again in the clinton years to hide it, but if you measure inflation with 70s metrics, you would see a consistent 10+ percent inflation rate for the past 25 years.
-ammo prices have been consistently rising in the past 2-3 years. The reason is supposedly that the chinese and indians are buying up lots of copper for wiring and stuff as they build stuff like crazy. Remember that brass itself is an alloy of 95% copper, so guess what also goes up with copper prices?

A good fix to this problem would be:
-a metal that can replace copper as a conductive element in buildings and electronics
-a substance that can cheaply replace copper/brass in ammo

 

[Jubjub]

It's still cheap compared to the prices of most commodities.

When I started buying my own .22 ammo in the early 70's a box of 100 top brand long rifle was $1.85 compared to $6 and change today. Call the increase maybe 350%.

At the same time back then a gallon of gas was 29 cents. What's that, 1000% or more?

A few years ago ammo was insanely cheap, and even though it has doubled lately, it's still pretty much a bargain.

 

[GhostlyKarliion]

The dollar is dropping, that means that in the international market what used to buy you 500 tons of brass now only buys you 300 tons (just an example, not accurate numbers... sue me)

If they have to buy less brass for the same money that means that the cost per item that they make will rise, everything is going up but that is partly an illusion, what is really happening is the dollar is going down and so you have to pay more for the things you get.