1KPerDay
Member
Curious if anyone has reliable info on this. Obviously "registration" isn't a thing everywhere (thankfully) so data may be spotty, but is there info on form 4473s by year or anything?
Is there any data on the number of guns owned per state, and/or the percentage/ratio of citizens/gun ownership by state?
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dogtown tom
Member
Every year ATF publishes data on NFA firearm ownership by state.
Anything related to Title I firearms would be just someone's guess.
Until 2021-05F, licensees could destroy any 4473's older than age twenty. Now we have to keep them until we discontinue business. So, no, there is no compilation of ownership data from 4473's.
Anything related to Title I firearms would be just someone's guess.
Until 2021-05F, licensees could destroy any 4473's older than age twenty. Now we have to keep them until we discontinue business. So, no, there is no compilation of ownership data from 4473's.
LiveLife
Member
Not sure about ownership but here's some data on sales by state.
States with highest population-adjusted gun sale rates in 2022 - https://www.safehome.org/data/firearms-guns-statistics/
States with highest population-adjusted gun sale rates in 2022 - https://www.safehome.org/data/firearms-guns-statistics/
| State / Territory | Guns sold per 10k residents aged 21+ | Total estimated sales |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 872 | 88,756 |
| Montana | 830 | 134,139 |
| Wyoming | 809 | 68,725 |
| Oregon | 715 | 462,274 |
| Alabama | 711 | 516,406 |
| Idaho | 685 | 178,454 |
| Tennessee | 649 | 662,695 |
| South Dakota | 649 | 82,392 |
| North Dakota | 629 | 68,423 |
| New Hampshire | 628 | 132,988 |
Telekinesis
Member
The short answer is that there is data out there, but a lot of it is bad data. If you want good information, you’re probably going to have to actually dig into the raw data yourself so that you really know what is going on.
Easiest example is that a few years ago some media outlet wanted to answer the question of “what is the most heavily armed state” and they did an “analysis” using only the NFRTR (National Firearms Registration and Transfer Record) which only applies to NFA weapons. It makes sense if you are going into the analysis with the “common knowledge” assumption that all guns are registered, but because they didn’t know that their assumption was wrong and didn’t check and fully understand the data, their conclusions were useless.
To your question, the FBI does keep basic stats on NICS checks that are available. In a quick search I didn’t find any detail about type (remember the input they receive is very limited anyway, IIRC they only get “rifle/shotgun”, “handgun”, and “other”) But you can get stats of totals by year, month, and day of month.
Remember that not every transaction requires a NICS check. Of course there are private transactions which aren’t counted, but certain states have CCWs which allow an individual to bypass the check (they still have to fill out the 4473, but the call doesn’t have to go out), and certain states use a Point of Contact where the state runs the background check rather than the FBI. That last group may or may not be included in those overall NICS numbers.
Also note that you can have multiple firearms covered by one 4473 and one NICS check.
NICS checks only give you info on transfers, not ownership. It can sometimes have correlation to purchases, but not always.
Also consider your scope - if you’re interested in answering the question “how many guns are in the state”, a used gun transferring from one resident of the state to another resident of the same state may have a NICS record associated with it, but the gun started in the state and ended in the same state. So the total number of guns in the state remains the same.
Another thing to watch out for is survey data. Generally survey data is a decent (though obviously not exact) way to get a general idea of what is going on, but I would not make that assumption when it comes to surveys regarding guns. There is a very strong (and reasonable) likelihood that people who do own guns would say they do not when answering a survey on a cold call.
There’s also the issue of participant selection. If you’re doing a national survey, the laws of different states are a big factor. For example if you base your survey population on the national population distribution, you would likely have more representation from places like NY and CA which have stricter gun laws and probably lower chances of randomly selecting a gun owner (or someone who will admit to a stranger that they own a gun).
Conversely if you have the opposite bias in sample selection and choose predominantly individuals in rural areas, or you do something like survey everybody on the NRA mailing list, you’re likely to have the opposite problem of your data overestimating the actual.
Then there’s how the questions are worded, and surveys should circle back to topics and use slightly different wording on subsequent questions. This lets the analyst determine if framing (the question structure, but also the questions immediately preceding the actual question being reviewed) impacts the answer.
Proper survey design and sample population selection is a pretty deep subject (think multiple undergrad and graduate level classes devoted to just that topic). Plus once you learn all of that stuff it impacts how you answer surveys as a participant. Well constructed surveys actually control for people who understand this stuff because the impact is statistically significant and can sway the results.
If you’re looking at studies, make sure they are talking about confidence rates, significance in their results, and sources of error. It doesn’t mean the information will necessarily be right, but it at least means they tried to use basic statistics correctly.
Anyway, I know some of this doesn’t directly answer your question, but hopefully it points to why this is a difficult thing to measure and why the information is not easily available.
Easiest example is that a few years ago some media outlet wanted to answer the question of “what is the most heavily armed state” and they did an “analysis” using only the NFRTR (National Firearms Registration and Transfer Record) which only applies to NFA weapons. It makes sense if you are going into the analysis with the “common knowledge” assumption that all guns are registered, but because they didn’t know that their assumption was wrong and didn’t check and fully understand the data, their conclusions were useless.
To your question, the FBI does keep basic stats on NICS checks that are available. In a quick search I didn’t find any detail about type (remember the input they receive is very limited anyway, IIRC they only get “rifle/shotgun”, “handgun”, and “other”) But you can get stats of totals by year, month, and day of month.
Remember that not every transaction requires a NICS check. Of course there are private transactions which aren’t counted, but certain states have CCWs which allow an individual to bypass the check (they still have to fill out the 4473, but the call doesn’t have to go out), and certain states use a Point of Contact where the state runs the background check rather than the FBI. That last group may or may not be included in those overall NICS numbers.
Also note that you can have multiple firearms covered by one 4473 and one NICS check.
NICS checks only give you info on transfers, not ownership. It can sometimes have correlation to purchases, but not always.
Also consider your scope - if you’re interested in answering the question “how many guns are in the state”, a used gun transferring from one resident of the state to another resident of the same state may have a NICS record associated with it, but the gun started in the state and ended in the same state. So the total number of guns in the state remains the same.
Another thing to watch out for is survey data. Generally survey data is a decent (though obviously not exact) way to get a general idea of what is going on, but I would not make that assumption when it comes to surveys regarding guns. There is a very strong (and reasonable) likelihood that people who do own guns would say they do not when answering a survey on a cold call.
There’s also the issue of participant selection. If you’re doing a national survey, the laws of different states are a big factor. For example if you base your survey population on the national population distribution, you would likely have more representation from places like NY and CA which have stricter gun laws and probably lower chances of randomly selecting a gun owner (or someone who will admit to a stranger that they own a gun).
Conversely if you have the opposite bias in sample selection and choose predominantly individuals in rural areas, or you do something like survey everybody on the NRA mailing list, you’re likely to have the opposite problem of your data overestimating the actual.
Then there’s how the questions are worded, and surveys should circle back to topics and use slightly different wording on subsequent questions. This lets the analyst determine if framing (the question structure, but also the questions immediately preceding the actual question being reviewed) impacts the answer.
Proper survey design and sample population selection is a pretty deep subject (think multiple undergrad and graduate level classes devoted to just that topic). Plus once you learn all of that stuff it impacts how you answer surveys as a participant. Well constructed surveys actually control for people who understand this stuff because the impact is statistically significant and can sway the results.
If you’re looking at studies, make sure they are talking about confidence rates, significance in their results, and sources of error. It doesn’t mean the information will necessarily be right, but it at least means they tried to use basic statistics correctly.
Anyway, I know some of this doesn’t directly answer your question, but hopefully it points to why this is a difficult thing to measure and why the information is not easily available.
I don't believe these figures are accurate. Oregon passed a ballot measure to greatly limit gun purchases in 2022-2023 so there was a run on guns in Oregon before the new law took affect. I don't think the 462,274 number could be right, I am pretty sure I bought more guns than that!
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Miami_JBT
Member
It is estimated that FL, out of a population of approximately 22 million people, FL has approximately 7-10 million firearm owners. And out of that, there are approximately 2.5 million active CCW permits. Which isn't 100% factually sufficient since FL issues permits to people who live in other states. And since FL is now a permitless concealed-only carry state, the permit numbers will drop.
In FL, it is illegal for the state to require registration of firearms. So, there is no number of how many guns or gun owners exist.
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J-Bar
Member
Actually I find it comforting that the numbers are unknown.
OP
OP
1KPerDay
Member
Yeah, I understand that any data would be only an estimate, since the majority of states still allow private sales between individuals. I guess the most likely stats that would be available would be annual NCIS check numbers, which also have their own potential issues as @Telekinesis astutely points out above.
@Miami_JBT can you LMK where you found your information on the estimated population/ownership numbers?
Ignition Override
Member
J-Bar: Simply for variety here, I can't remember where I read that 
Germany might have tens of thousands of Unregistered guns.
The comment was made by a German Police Commissioner or such. The main point is the Irony-- because they have a historic trust of bureaucrats and complying with laws, as most people here realize, and that goes back hundreds of years (Thirty Years' War etc).
Recently two
Canadians PM'd me about what actually has Not happened up there very often, since the draconian new so-called gun "laws" were enacted.
Due to "..the govt. being visciously incompetent" (a Canuck's exact words), poor computer records plus critical understaffing and anxiety within the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, they haven't confiscated much of anything.
The RCMP has been so worried about physical danger that they apparently decided to postpone "knocking on doors".
Germany might have tens of thousands of Unregistered guns.The comment was made by a German Police Commissioner or such. The main point is the Irony-- because they have a historic trust of bureaucrats and complying with laws, as most people here realize, and that goes back hundreds of years (Thirty Years' War etc).
Recently two
Canadians PM'd me about what actually has Not happened up there very often, since the draconian new so-called gun "laws" were enacted.Due to "..the govt. being visciously incompetent" (a Canuck's exact words), poor computer records plus critical understaffing and anxiety within the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, they haven't confiscated much of anything.
The RCMP has been so worried about physical danger that they apparently decided to postpone "knocking on doors".
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Miami_JBT
Member
FL Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services' estimates along the FL Department of Law Enforcement's estimates from various reports over the years.
FL does not uses NICS. FL has a state point of sale background check system in place that is older than NICS. Per state law, all records related to a background must be destroyed within 24 hours of the completion of the background.
dogtown tom
Member
It sure as heck does use NICS.
State "POC" or Point of Contact just means that dealers in those states don't contact FBI NICS directly, but a state agency that in turn contacts the FBI NICS system.
CapnMac
Member
@dogtown tom Is that correct, that a single 4473 can have multiple s/n ?
There might be estimates, but consider that records of sales weren't always required, people and their guns move from state to state, and "handed down" firearms are also mobile.
You might look for data for sales in recent years from background check data, but even that will have error associated with it.
dogtown tom
Member
Each Form 4473 has three lines for listing firearms. If there are more than three, the FFL just attaches a continuation sheet.
I've done 150 pistols on one 4473.
If you have a dealer who makes you fill out two 4473's because you bought four stripped lowers.....he's an idiot and needs to read the instructions.
Miami_JBT
Member
FL uses FCIC and NCIC, not NICS. It is the FDLE Firearms Purchase Program
Miami_JBT
Member
Yes, you can purchase multiple firearms on one 4473.
dogtown tom
Member
I take those stats with a grain of salt. If you click on "Our Methodology" you get this nonsense:
Methodology
The source data comes from the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System, and included data from 2010-2023.
To convert background checks into estimated sales, we relied on a method suggested in the Small Arms Survey by Jurgen Brauer, a professor at Georgia Regents University. Researchers at the New York Times and Buzzfeed News have also used similar calculations in their past reporting: Each long gun and handgun check was counted as 1.1 sales. Each multiple-gun check was counted as two sales. We included private sale checks. Permit checks and other types of checks were omitted. We only included data from the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., and omitted Hawaii due to insufficient data.
In short.........they are making a guess, a horribly inaccurate guess. Twenty six states have a firearm permit that is an exemption to the Brady Law. Fully 80% of my firearm transfer are to holders of a Texas License To Carry, meaning no NICS check and not calculated in those figures.
dogtown tom
Member
Sigh.
Again, Florida has a state agency that is the POINT OF CONTACT for NICS. Instead of FFL's contacting the FBI NICS directly, they contact that state POC.......WHO IN TURN accessesses the FBI NICS system.
But don't take my word for it, read it yourself: National Instant Criminal Background Check System
From that page:
See third paragraph.
Savage30L
Member
There are stats out there but I suspect that all of them are wildly inaccurate.
Among other things, the stats probably won't include firearms purchased before the passage of the GCA of 1968 (except in leftist-dominate places like NYC), and probably also won't include guns passed down as inheritances.
The figures I've seen quoted for my state are laughable. I know people who own hundreds of guns. One fellow in our gun club has over 3000.
I'd venture to guess that there are 10X the number of guns than people in our state.
Among other things, the stats probably won't include firearms purchased before the passage of the GCA of 1968 (except in leftist-dominate places like NYC), and probably also won't include guns passed down as inheritances.
The figures I've seen quoted for my state are laughable. I know people who own hundreds of guns. One fellow in our gun club has over 3000.
I'd venture to guess that there are 10X the number of guns than people in our state.
J-Bar
Member
Savage30L
Member
....and most of them (reputedly, I haven't seen the collection myself) are high-end, collectible Winchester lever-actions from the halcyon days of lever guns.....Sa- LUTE!
He's elderly. And just an ordinary fellow, not some wealthy speculator. I don't know what will happen to his collection when he passes on, but I imagine that the disposition of his estate will be quite a spectacle.
BLACKHAWKNJ
Member
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2007
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Several New Yorkers have told me a common scenario is when a pistol permit holder dies and the authorities inquire about his firearms, the response is:
"Guns ? Dad never mentioned any guns. Hey Charlie, you know anything about Dad's guns ?"
"Nope, never said anything to me,"
A friend bought several handguns from an estate sale here in NJ which has required a Pistol/Handgun Permit to Purchase for over 60 years. When asked if they are properly registered he answers "Yes." The person they are registered to has been dead for over 30 years.
"Guns ? Dad never mentioned any guns. Hey Charlie, you know anything about Dad's guns ?"
"Nope, never said anything to me,"
A friend bought several handguns from an estate sale here in NJ which has required a Pistol/Handgun Permit to Purchase for over 60 years. When asked if they are properly registered he answers "Yes." The person they are registered to has been dead for over 30 years.
Savage30L
Member
Back about 2008 I was the leading candidate for a great job (a dream job, really, for someone who was in my profession) in upstate New York (I was living in Maryland at the time). Having heard some bad things about living in New York, I decided to look into firearms ownership laws. What I found (along with a trip up to the area) convinced me to withdraw my name from consideration for the job.
One fellow told me that he applied for a pistol permit, and ended up having to hire a lawyer and spend thousands of dollars to get it. On top of that, a judge (whose approval is required for a permit) may stipulate anything he wants on the permit. The judge in his case wrote, "Permittee may not use the handgun for personal defense" on his permit! I already had 8 or 9 handguns and didn't want to get rid of them just so I could accept a job....piss on that.
Another woman I knew down in Maryland inherited a vacation cabin on one of the NY Finger Lakes from her grandfather. The cabin wasn't anything fancy, and couldn't be occupied in the winter because it wasn't heated. She had to sell the property immediately because she couldn't afford the property tax, which she said was $10,000 per year!!
Hmm. Being ever the devil's advocate, if I wanted to compile a number under what authority could I do so? Ahh. Seems there's no end to what the Census Bureau can ask. Probably create all sorts of pushback but if I were a
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