Think the AR-15 is dying?

How much longer do you think the AR-15/M-16/M-4 will stay state-of-the-art?

  • The AR-15 design is out-dated and obsolete as of yesterday. Say goodbye.

    Votes: 16 5.0%
  • AR-Alternatives will replace it fully within the next 10-15 years.

    Votes: 88 27.2%
  • Our grandchildren will still be using the AR design.

    Votes: 132 40.9%
  • The AR-15 is the next AK-47 and it will never go away.

    Votes: 87 26.9%

  • Total voters
    323
  • Poll closed .
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It seems to me that one of the strengths of the AR, its modular design, is the answer to any problems that may exist.

Bingo.

A particular version might wither away, but the AR is really just a receiver onto which just about anything can be attached. A CQB carbine with a flat top, collapsible stock, modern optics and rails with other accessories already bears little resemblance to the original M-16.

That's what really angers me about the "assault weapons ban" in California. Banning certain configurations is bad enough; effectively banning a whole platform with plenty of civilian applications that have nothing to do with military rifles reaches a whole other level of harrassment of gun owners.
 
The AR15 is a very modular design. That is one imprtant feature that it has over the AK.

As a civilian, I can buy a single AR lower and run multiple uppers in various configurations, lengths and calibers. I personally have uppers in 22LR, 7.62x39, 5.56 and I'm thinking of getting a 9mm. I can order all of these online, have them delivered to my doorstep and can run them on just one lower with it's associated federal paper trail/background check hassle.

This also has benefits for the military. They can upgrade many rifles for half the cost. SF teams even occasionally keep several uppers for one lower to tailer to the specific mission of the day. They can use a short barreled upper with an Aimpoint for CQB/fast entry one day and switch to a longer 16" Recon upper with a scope for open country ops. The Navy purchased a number of short barreled uppers for boarding/search parties. They just slapped them on to existing M16A1 and M16A2 lowers.

The military is starting to adopt new marksman and sniper rifles based on the AR and chambered in 7.62x51.

Even some complete redesigns, like the SCAR, keeps many elements of the AR.

The military likes the M-16, civilians generally like the AR. While not perfect (what is?), it's a very functional design with a lot of quality attributes. The many, many incarnations on the market (and in DOD budget requests) prove that.

I haven't even touched on the LE communities widespread adoption of the AR/M-16 platform. Go to any police station and I'd bet you have a 90% chance of finding an AR or M-16 on their inventory somewhere.

I haven't even touched on the export of M-16s to other countries.

It will be available to both civilians and militaries for a long, long time.
 
I've never used an AR type weapon in combat but my educated opinion on the matter: Crappy gas system, Crappy choice in ammo (5.56mm NATO is very under powered), Excellent ergonomics and array of accessories.

I say keep the design but change the gas system and caliber. I say bring back the 7.62x51mm as the standard service rifle caliber.

From a guy who has done 2 combat tours in Fallujah and Ramadi, I never had a problem with my M16A4, my troops kept thier's clean and never had a problem with thier's either. The only people that complain about how horrible the M16 is, the people who don't use them. I get personally offended when people talk bad about my guns.

5.56mm kills at 0-200M, that's why we teach controled pairs, hammered pairs and failure drills now. The weight vs knock down power of 7.62 isn't worth it and 5.56 has less recoil to perform follow up shots on other bad guys.

The military is starting to adopt new marksman and sniper rifles based on the AR and chambered in 7.62x51.

It's called the SR-25, made by Knights Armory and is said to be the upcomeing fad to replace the ageing M14 DMR, the 26th MEU has procured them and the recent rumors and reports from training are highly favorable.

BTW: for $5300 before tax/reg you can have an SR-25 too, buy it off the internet if you'd like. Although they all seem to be out of stock?
 
I'd agree the poll options don't seem to provide a good choice. Aside from the time gap Coronoch notes, the AR and AK are contemporaneous solutions to the same problem with similar technologies - there is no "the next..." with either of 'em.

Given that turnbolts from the WWI era are still being used here and there around the world, I'd say it's safe to say someone will be carrying an AR somewhere in a hundred years.. I rather doubt it will be front-line issue in another 40 though.

That said, there's nothing else out there now or in the immediately forseeable future that offers a signifant increase in functionality over the AR platform. Barring another Reverend Forsyth popping out of obscurity, I don't think the AR or its contemporaries will be obsolete anytime soon.

-K
 
From a guy who has done 2 combat tours in Fallujah and Ramadi, I never had a problem with my M16A4, my troops kept thier's clean and never had a problem with thier's either. The only people that complain about how horrible the M16 is, the people who don't use them. I get personally offended when people talk bad about my guns.

I couldnt agree with this statement more. I personally have two tours under my belt, the initial invasion and a year in the Diyala province, and have never seen any "problem" with the M-16 platform.
 
For a gun that fires such a weak caliber, has a crappy gas system, and is obviously a political choice, it has survived in the .mil for generations of soliders. Why? Better question, it has been adopted by some of the best militaries in the world, and special forces who can choose anything under the sun and chose the M4/M16. Do they not read The High Road?

Give our troops something in .22LR and we will still get piles of kills just because our tactics and training are so much better than anyone on the planet. Take a look at a 5.56mm round next to a 7.62x51mm round and tell me wich one you would rather use in combat. I think i'm going with the round that doesn't look like a .22LR on 'roids. If the AR platform is so great, why is the M14 making a comeback? The AR survived in gererations of soldiers because the soldiers don't choose their weapons. The AR was a political choice. It has turned out to be a decent weapon but its beginnings were some of the worst in US military history.

From a guy who has done 2 combat tours in Fallujah and Ramadi, I never had a problem with my M16A4, my troops kept thier's clean and never had a problem with thier's either. The only people that complain about how horrible the M16 is, the people who don't use them. I get personally offended when people talk bad about my guns.

Today's M16A2,A3,and A4s are decent weapons, I just think i'd like an M14 instead. M16s and M16A1s are pure junk as faras combat goes if you listen to the USMC 'nam vets I know
 
I also must agree with Cgrunt and KC. Bitch about the caliber if you want, but bitching about fouling of the action by the direct gas impingement is silly. A whole platoon could fire their combat load through a single weapon without fouling the weapon enough to cause a malf. When I hear about malfunctions with this weapon, I suspect a chronic problem with maintenance discipline. The weapon is scary accurate, considering it goes together like Legos. It handles beautifully. It runs like...well, like a well-oiled machine. Kaylee's right on, in that there is nothing on the table that offers a meaningful improvement. For all the gee-whizzery, anything out there right now looks to be, at best, a very costly lateral move.
 
So what exactly is the biggest gripe that people have against the AR? The gas impingement system? The 5.56mm round? Or just the politics of how it came to be adopted?
I personally don't like .223, but it's the best out there at the moment. The direct gas system, and it's adoption are the things that get me. NOW---that being said, it performs wonderfully. I just wish it had a gas-oprod (take that HK416 Upper, for example) and wasn't quite so finicky with ammo. Considering that the direct gas-impingement mechanism was developed for 7.62x51 NATO, the exact charachteristics of what was needed was much different. If they would just adopt a gas oprod upper for the AR (not AR180 style, either), I would be perfectly content with the rifle, and would probably purchase a couple. As it sits, it is currently far down my list of "must haves" (though, that'll change if Anti's look like they're going to take the '08 Election:cuss: :evil: ). My .02, now I'll shut up on it.

And yes, I'd say the modern ARs are much better than the initial versions.
 
Thank you KC&97TA and Cgrunt. I get sick of the naysayers also. If it was truly as bad a rifle (or cartridge) as I keep reading about on the Internet, I doubt it would have had such a long and prosperous career to still be in such widespread use by .mil .leo or .civ shooters.

Personally, I love the rifle and the round. There will definately be an AR in my gun collection for as long as I have the faculties to shoot one.

If the AR platform is so great, why is the M14 making a comeback?
Effective range. The 5.56 is not a long range round. When our military started operating in wide open country, they found they needed to reach out and kill someone past 200 or 300 meters, and have a man who could do so accurately and quickly in every squad or platoon (much as the Soviets learned when they were in Afganistan). They started issuing expedient M-14s with optics and accurized M-16s with optics. Now that R&D and procurement processes have caught up with the needs, they are starting to issue purpose built, accurized M-16 based weapons in 7.62x51 (namely the SR-25 and Mk-11 rifles).
 
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For those who complain about the 5.56mm round I gotta say that the amount of ammo you can carry, and the effective recoil you can compensate for are both big arguments in favor of the M16/M4 platform.

Those that point out that the M-14 is making a comeback have more of a point about current sniper systems and/or squad support weapons than they do about the basic infantry rifle. IMO they also overestimate the numbers of M-14s that are coming back into use.

Let's listen to the folks that have actually used the firearms in question.
 
"AR15's have put more people in the ground than the black plague."

25 million in less than 5 years? Really? A third of the population of Europe(at the time.) And outbreaks continued for many decades after that.

John
 
Been kinda poking around THR the last few weeks but didn't really feel like posting until I came across this one..

mattw said...
Give our troops something in .22LR and we will still get piles of kills just because our tactics and training are so much better than anyone on the planet. Take a look at a 5.56mm round next to a 7.62x51mm round and tell me wich one you would rather use in combat. I think i'm going with the round that doesn't look like a .22LR on 'roids.

I'm with everyone else here on this subject. Statements like this just blow my mind, and they should blow yours too if you have even a passing appreciation of history.

When all is said and done, there is only one constant when it comes to the use of firearms in warfare. Rifle caliber is decreasing as quickly as it becomes feasable to do so, for good reason. Poke around google to really get to the bottom of it.

As for the poll, yeah, it could have used more options. I think the AR15/M16 will be around for quite a long time as a platform, the modularity is something you just can't really improve upon.

If anything does it in, it'll be that. The creation of a yet more modular system.
 
Think the AR-15 is dying?

Yeah... just about as quickly as the 1911 is dying.

Its been doing the job for 40 years, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it is still doing the job 40 years from now. Its already the longest running service rifle in US history, as far as I know, and is the choice of the most elite troops the world over. A remarkable feat for such an inadequate .22 non-running POS. :rolleyes:
 
Tactics have changed since the old days. In WWII the mortality rate was higher due to the power of calibers such as the 8mm Mauser or .30-06 Garand. Pick out a guy, sight him in, shoot him.

Now it's more of how many rounds can you spit out acurately at a specific point. Hence the caliber .223 itself and weapons like the SAW. Keep the enemy's head DOWN while you go around and pump as many rounds as you want from the side. Power is not the key today.

As for the gas system, direct doesn't make much sense to me. That's the only thing I dislike about the AR-15 design. Not sure what Eugene had in mind.
 
Tactics have changed since the old days. In WWII the mortality rate was higher due to the power of calibers such as the 8mm Mauser or .30-06 Garand. Pick out a guy, sight him in, shoot him.

Now it's more of how many rounds can you spit out acurately at a specific point. Hence the caliber .223 itself and weapons like the SAW. Keep the enemy's head DOWN while you go around and pump as many rounds as you want from the side. Power is not the key today.

Are you kidding? :banghead:

The mortality rate was higher because both sides were EXTREMELY well trained (not just some towel heads with an AK) and it was all out ground warfare with no where near the technology (helicopters anyone?) to aid in removal of the injuried.

You transport some M16's back to WW2 and give them to both the Allies and the Germans and you will have 3 times the bloodshed because rather than the Krauts using bolt actions they would be dishing a truck load more rounds at us which would equal a truck load more wounded/KIA. The same with our soldiers and the Garand. Yes it was a great rifle, but I am sure no one would back then would reject some 20 or 30 round detachable magazines.

:evil:
 
Tactics have changed since the old days. In WWII the mortality rate was higher due to the power of calibers such as the 8mm Mauser or .30-06 Garand. Pick out a guy, sight him in, shoot him.

A statement like that needs some empirical evidence to support it.
 
Love it or hate it .223 is here to stay. Remember how long it took NATO to standardize a rifle cartridge? .308 hung on in the FAL till the very end. I imagine seeing the AR series evolve more over the next 20 years till you end up with the M-16 B1. I dont see a serious replacement unless HK picks up on the G11 caseless concept once more and makes it a serious contender.

"Tactics have changed since the old days. In WWII the mortality rate was higher due to the power of calibers such as the 8mm Mauser or .30-06 Garand. Pick out a guy, sight him in, shoot him."

Yes the idea behind the smaller caliber or so I have heard is to inflict injury not death. Leaving your enemy with wounded to tend too severly hinders them on the battlefield.
 
A statement like that needs some empirical evidence to support it.

I would like to see that myself.
I am not doubting you. I just never heard that mortality rate was higher in WWII than it is today.
I have to say that it would surprise me if it were true, but I have been surprised before.

Pure Speculation on my part:
I honestly don't believe that at fairly close range there is a whole lot of difference in the wound from WWII rifles vs. the 5.56 NATO. If anything, I would give the nod to the 5.56 with its higher velocity and a projectile that will fragment and tumble. I do grant you that at 300 yards the WWII era rifle is definitely going to be more effective IF you can hit the enemy at that range which the average soldier will not.
We have all read ratios over the years of the number of rounds fired to produce one enemy KIA. I would like to see the numbers for today's soldiers and Marines that are fielding optics like the Aimpoint ML3 and ML3 as well as the TA31F ACOG. I would bet good money that are soldiers today are getting more hits than there were during WWII.
End of speculation.
 
Yes the idea behind the smaller caliber or so I have heard is to inflict injury not death. Leaving your enemy with wounded to tend too severly hinders them on the battlefield.
That is an urban legend.

No military is going to seriously consider wounding someone if you can stop them DRT. A wounded soldier can keep you pinned down while his buddies retreat or flank you. He shoot you in the back, or grenade your squad as you pass him by to take new ground. A dead man can do no such things.
 
Tactics have changed since the old days. In WWII the mortality rate was higher due to the power of calibers such as the 8mm Mauser or .30-06 Garand. Pick out a guy, sight him in, shoot him.

Most of the people killed in ground combat during WW2 were done in by artillery and crew served weapons. The problem with lethality, as far as the individual infantryman was concerned, in WW2 was not about terminal ballistics, it was about getting the individual infantryman to engage the enemy at all with direct fire. Researchers during the war (SLA Marshall, notably) found that only about 20% of troops in combat even fired their personal weapons at all, much less fired accurately and inflicted casualties on the enemy. Two guys running a machinegun, four or five guys crewing a tank or other AFV, or similar had much higher rates of engagement (over 90% if memory serves me correctly) and consequently much more lethal effects on the enemy.

Tactics have changed much since then (though doctrine has). Training has changed, however, and explains why the number of troops who will fire their individual weapons at the enemy has increased dramatically since then.

Now it's more of how many rounds can you spit out acurately at a specific point. Hence the caliber .223 itself and weapons like the SAW. Keep the enemy's head DOWN while you go around and pump as many rounds as you want from the side. Power is not the key today.

Flanking attacks and fire and manuever predate the 5.56mm round by quite a while. They were, for instance, a central part of infantry doctrine for US forces in World War 2, explain why weapons like the BAR were adopted, etc.

As for 30-06, the only reason it was even in service during World War 2 was that McArthur, during his stint as CoS of the Army pre-WW2, vetoed, for financial reasons, the adoption of .276 Pedersen for the new Garand rifle (the cartridge it was originally built for) or one of the other small calibers army researchers had identified as superior for infantry use to .30-06. We tend to think of 30-06 as a some obviously superior classic, but the truth of the matter is that the army wanted to be rid of it by the late 1920s. Only the near bankruptcy of the US government during the Depression kept 30-06 in service because we had mountains of it left over from WW1.

As an interesting side note, .276 Pedersen is, ballistically, remarkably similar to 6.8mm Remington SPC (and the British 280/30 round, but that's a whole other issue), even if case dimensions are completely different.

As for the gas system, direct doesn't make much sense to me. That's the only thing I dislike about the AR-15 design. Not sure what Eugene had in mind.

I believe that with late 1950s/early 1960s technology, the direct gas system produced about the lightest action possible, which is why it was used.
 
It is a very capable design. Very reliable, very accurate, low recoil, powerful enough. The caliber allows for the most important aspect of combate, accurate fire. Soldiers will miss, that's life. But if they can't take a followup shot, that's death. Power is secondary.

I do however, believe we'll switch to a piston design of some form. The current gas method works very well, but even if only in theory, they pollute their own workings.

Then again, the Thompson is blowback and iirc it's one of the most reliable guns ever.
 
AR-15 is revolutionary. No doubt. I'd say the .223 is like the 9mm --great with the right ammo and, of course, shot placement. But this has become more of an "I Hate" or "I Love" ARs and .223 debate --theres plenty of that and we all have our own opinions.

--Does anyone think the AR-Alternatives have any merit? Will SWAT teams and Civilian Contractors be purchasing Robinson XCRs and FN SCARs INSTEAD of AR-15s in the near future?

AR-15 will be around for a looong time. But how quickly will its preference die out in the face of the SCAR contenders and whatnot?

TRL
 
I'm sure that somewhere in the distant future on some God-forsaken battlefield somewhere, the last M16-armed soldier will fight the last AK-47 armed soldier :D
 
In WWII the mortality rate was higher due to the power of calibers such as the 8mm Mauser or .30-06 Garand
WRONG the mortality rate was higher in WWII because the medical treatment available on the battlefield was stone-age compared to today. It has been in the news recently our solders are receiving horrific injury's that would have meant certain death even 15 years ago but now they are making it back home because of our advanced battlefield heath care.
 
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