What role did RKBA fill in election

[Malone LaVeigh]

I have been telling all of my liberal friends that the Dems shouldn't have alienated gun owners. But I'm not sure if I have as sound an argument as I would like. I haven't seen anything in the news media about the role of the RKBA debate. Just that the hard right and the religious fundamentalists really turned out their base. Yes, we all know the NRA endorsed Bush, and I'm sure I'll get a lot of mailings from them saying how good they did, and how I should send more money. But has anyone seen any hard data that RKBA influenced any votes? It seems that there was more hard evidence in the 2000 election.

 

[Moparmike]

If it did, it was more a silent or "on top of all that,..." issue. Sort of like a list of ailments on a car: "Busted radiator hose, cracked head, bad clutch, broken axle splines, and a leaking heater core. On top of all that, all your tires are flat."

On second thought, that probably didn't clarify or answer your question...

 

[Benjamin]

I read a news article on Karl Rove's talk show circut. Quick summary of his points, opposition's objections, with some fact checking.

Point - Bush won by about 3.5 million popular votes this time around.

Rove statement - in 2000, about 4 million religious, conservative voters stayed home. We mobilized them, and won.



I'm a news wonk. I read a lot, from pretty much any source available. The only place I see RKBA as making a difference is on gun boards.

 

[Art Eatman]

I guess the only way to know would have been if the exit polls included some question about guns/RKBA.

There's bound to have been some amount, given the amount of chatter on the Internet. It seems to me that if the pro-environment/pro-gay/pro-women'slib, etc., went for Kerry, those for whom RKBA had any importance went for Bush.

Doesn't matter what we believe or know. What matters is what Congresscritters believe. So, we'll just keep telling them that the RKBA numbers are important to their well-being and re-election.

Art

 

[Standing Wolf]

I haven't seen anything in the news media about the role of the RKBA debate.

I'm sure you won't, either: the national leftist extremist self-styled "news" media has no interest in facts unless they support the cause of socialism.

Here's a curious fact: Bush won by approximately the number of N.R.A. members.

 

[benEzra]

Bush's margin of victory in a number of the swing states was less than the number of NRA members living there.

The Democrats had hoped to get a significant portion of the gun vote, but didn't because they underestimated how offensive banning nonhunting guns is to gun owners. (They think most gun owners are hunters, when the true ratio is only 1 hunter per 5 gun owners.)

 

[Old Fuff]

Standing Wolf is right in that the "mainstream media" will ignore the gun issues becuase they don't see them as something that matters. The same thing happened in 1994 when the Democrats lost control of congress.

This is not to say however that the RKBA vote isn't out there. Anyone who thinks otherwine should review the number of individuals who were backed by the NRA during the 2000, 2003 and 2004 elections and won, vs. the number of ones backed by the Brady Bunch, and didn't. "Big media" can't see beyond the big urban cities though.

 

[Preacherman]

I think that the RKBA issue was important to shooters, but it wasn't a major factor on the public stage the way it was in 2000. I think that the majority of Republican voters this time around were motivated by terrorism, gay marriage, etc. rather than the RKBA issue.

 

[AZRickD]

From memory... oh, heck, lemme go to the source

CNN Exit Poll

Gun Owners BUSH KERRY NADER
Yes (41%) 63% 36% 1%
No (59%) 43% 57% 0%


Stand by for a horribly over-simplified analysis:

Power Factor Calculation (Portion of 100 voters X Percent)

YES GUN BUSH == 25.83%
NO GUN BUSH == 25.37%
Total Vote Bush == 51.20%

YES GUN KERRY == 14.76%
NO GUN KERRY == 33.63%
Total Vote Kerry == 48.39%

So, the gunnies voted for Bush +11% but the anti-gunnies voted for Kerry only +8.3%. Bush bested Kerry by +2.7% amongst the anti-gun/pro-gun groups while Bush bested Kerry by 2.81% overall.

Rick
Hiding behind a rock

 

[Wildalaska]

Bush won as a centrist.
The dems lost becasue of looney radicalism

WildhillaryonthehorizonhoperepubsdontmakethesamemistakeAlaska

 

[ACP230]

I'm an NRA Life Member. I voted for one Democratic candidate. A local officeholder who a friend describes as "a DINO," Democrat In Name Only.
All the others, even local ones, lost my vote due to the Democratic party's attack on my 2nd Amendment rights.

I don't think I'm the only one who voted this way.

 

[Sleeping Dog]

I voted for guns. That's the only reason GWB got my vote. I disagree with most of the rest of the package.

But even if the Dems dropped gun control from their platform, I'd still vote Rep, because I wouldn't believe the Dems position.

Like ACP230, I voted for one Dem, for the U.S. House of Reps, and he's pro-2A.

Regards.

 

[RealGun]

The Democrat Party will not encourage Feinstein and may well actively discourage her. They are twice burned and need to stop being the bad guy, not just about guns but about a number of hot button issues. The opinion that they will move to the center is either correct or the Dems are doomed to eventual obscurity. The other possibility is that they will be more openly radical, but I highly doubt it from a leadership standpoint. They certainly have that potential in their membership, a hodgepodge of unholy alliances, all mad at their perception of "the establishment" for different reasons.

 

[Silver Bullet]

I think RKBA was an important issue with voters, but it didn’t seem to be an issue because the media ignored it, so hard data might be hard to come by. I know one hard datum: it hugely influenced my vote.

We all know what Clinton said after Gore lost in 2000, and I don’t believe it is any less important to gunowners this go-round; I think Kerry was even more anti-gun than Gore.

Just prior to the 2002 elections, there were various news reports stating that guns didn’t seem to be an issue this election because none of the candidates were talking about it. At first, I thought that was a good thing: Ah ha! The Dems learned their lesson ! Then I realized the media was trying to set us up by implying that because the Dems weren’t vocalizing that issue, they no longer cared about that issue and that the RKBA folks were now free to vote on other considerations. Didn’t work; politicians lie, the media lie, but the voting record tells the Truth.

 

[buzz_knox]

Doesn't matter what we believe or know. What matters is what Congresscritters believe. So, we'll just keep telling them that the RKBA numbers are important to their well-being and re-election.

Well, Gephardt said that gun rights groups were critical in defeating the Dems. So, let's use their own statements against them. While we're at it, let's remind the Congresscritters that the party that let the AWB die (according to the Dems) was rewarded handsomely.

 

[F4GIB]

I haven't seen anything in the news media about the role of the RKBA debate. It seems that there was more hard evidence in the 2000 election.

If the media knew, they wouldn't tell anyone. This year GW kept his base which includes gun owners. But he also increased his vote margin. That increase came from evangelicals, etc. who were specially courted. But, if gun owners had left the base, GW would not be President. He needs the 20 million gun owner votes that he got.

 

[F4GIB]

Well, Gephardt said that gun rights groups were critical in defeating the Dems. So, let's use their own statements against them. While we're at it, let's remind the Congresscritters that the party that let the AWB die (according to the Dems) was rewarded handsomely.

Can you post a URL for Gephart's statement?

 

[Gordon Fink]

The right to keep and bear arms played no real role in this election. Both major candidates pledged support for “reasonable†gun control, and one was still elected.

~G. Fink

 

[sar]

Gephardt quote:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/04/p...&en=2df0f11d4217ea27&ei=5094&partner=homepage


Mr. Gephardt argued that the Democrats' failure appeared to be more of tactics than of programs - that Mr. Kerry's proposals were popular but that the Democrats' organization, while impressive, paled beside the Republicans' machine for turning out votes.

"They used the infrastructure of gun organizations and religious organizations to get that done,'' he said, "and we've got to grapple with that.''

 

[GSB]

It was a major deciding factor among my gun-owning coworkers. That's anecdotal, of course, so take it for what it's worth.

 

[R.H. Lee]

The Democratic donkey already has too many straws (issues where they are against the mainstream) on its back; gun control, abortion, same sex marriage, globalism, bigger gov't., etc et yada. Probably most of these are intertwined and it may be impossible to determine the order of relevance. Gore lost partially on account of his gun control views. Kerry made a repeated efforts to appeal to gunowners, so it must be important.

 

[Rebar]

It doesn't matter if it was, in fact, the gun vote that won it for Bush.

The people who are running the democratic party are hard-left ideologues, and civilian disarmament is an article of faith for them. They'll lie about it, like Kerry did, but they'll never give it up.

 

[Sleeping Dog]

If the Democrats give up on gun control AND the new, pro-2A stance is believed, they can crush the republicans.

As far as other litmus-test issues, if the republicans give up on abortion control AND the new, pro-choice stance is believed, they can crush the Democrats.

Other issues, globalism, big govt, same-sex marriage, these are lesser things that I don't think will make or break a campaign.

Regards.

 

[standingbear]

EVEN though it was said that terrorism was what was on folks minds(according to a media "poll" on one of the popular news networks)I believe RKBA had something to do with it....anyone willing to "forsake" the second ammendment certainly has gained my mistrust and kerrys early statements regarding the issue along with other issues..to me,its not just about gun control but the whole constitutionality of it all- what follows- and thats why kerry lost.not enough folks believed in him- many more mistrusted him,most saw through it.


so,yes,I believe RKBA played a part.its really simple if you think about it,one cant win hearts and minds by taking away essential freedoms -then it was just one statement by him after another that alienated him from the rest.

 

[Malone LaVeigh]

Well, thanks, all, I guess. Not much help really. I guess I should have expected the usual "liberal media" porrige.