Without Obama, once-booming gun industry poised to shrink

The pendulum swings to and fro. Rarely does it's arc intersect personal freedom.
get 'em, while you can

HPA is hurting suppressor sales too because people are holding off waiting to get a suppressor. Hopefully the main companies stay around long enough for it to pass and they can make a comeback.

Supply and demand like it always is. Panic buying only means that anything that might be subjected to restrictions in near future sells. The hoarding effect fueled by uncertainty. Consequently, less uncertain times are a treat to buyers but not so much to manufacturers, stockists and retailers. Prices fall, quality improves and when the market has just been saturated, competition is fierce. Personally I prefer buying when no-one else is, be it guns, vehicles or even real estate. It's fun (and profitable) to have some personal surplus stock to unload when the market is hot and everyone's buying in a frenzy.

On the one hand, supporting Trump would be wildly popular with the great majority of their customers and the NRA -- but it could (and has proven to be) deleterious to their sales

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Maybe not, using NICS checks as a proxy this February was the third busiest February going back to 1999.

Details:
http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/13/trump-slump-proved-false-by-strong-background-check-numbers/

I wandered by a small gun show this morning, good crowd, decent sales judging by the people sitting at the tables doing NICS checks. Sure nothing like after Sandy Hook, but seemed healthy volume to me. Didn't notice much "softness" in prices yet, but we can hope for some lowering. There truly has been some great deals on AR parts and components from the on-line vendors recently.

I was at the large gun show at the MN State Fair grounds a few weeks back. It was packed and busy as always. I actually prefer the smaller version of the same gun show. Still at the fairgrounds but easier to get around. I saw no post-election drop off in interest.

I am looking to add a budget AR and new carry pistol in a few weeks. The gun fund has been building up with no recent purchases. The prices right now are fantastic. I am also looking to purchase my first revolver, prices on old and new S&W or Rugers have not come down.

I agree with hq's thoughts of buying what the herd doesn't want. Keep stocked up on reloading supplies so you can weather the frenzied times. Sadly, I would expect we will eventually have another gun and ammunition panic.

Swanee

Solomonson wrote:
I wonder if the major gun makers actually weighed supporting one presidential candidate over the other in the general election?

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I don't know. But it seems that any firm who didn't at least develop a strategic plan "B" for a Trump victory is going to experience some rough times before a new equilibrium is established within the gun market.

Aim1 said:

HPA is hurting suppressor sales too because people are holding off waiting to get a suppressor. Hopefully the main companies stay around long enough for it to pass and they can make a comeback.

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A BIG comeback! And prices will drop significantly across the board, as well.

It is and continues to be awesome for the consumer. Last year during the Black Friday sales, bought an HK P-30 for $499, thats nuts! Got a FNS 40 delivered for $400, typically a $550 gun. AR's have fallen through the floor and now, S&W is offering a $75 rebate on Shields, brings the cost down to $245, wow. This is allowing many new people to get into shooting, that couldn't before, because of sky high prices and no availability.

As far as I'm concerned, the ammo and gun makers made their own bed, milking the Obama years and screwing the customer with outrageous prices. Now, its our turn to reap the benefits.

The problem here are is that we are calling panic/fear buying normal. It's not normal.It's just been going on for awhile so it seems that way. So yeah, when there is no fear or panic, prices drop, sales drop.....some. Give it a year and watch prices really adjust to the less inflated prices we see today. The rebates and coupons are just starting. Decent AR's will be $400 guns. New Glocks and XD's easily under $400. And a wise person would would do well to become a buyer soon. I see me acquiring 100+ pounds of powder and many, many, thousands of bullets in the next year or so. And maybe a few more guns....

Aim1 said:

HPA is hurting suppressor sales too because people are holding off waiting to get a suppressor. Hopefully the main companies stay around long enough for it to pass and they can make a comeback.

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Doubtful. 41F? Sure, but not HPA. The reality is that the current regulatory burden is just too high.

I'm a reasonable example. When the 41F writing was on the wall I bought a range of suppressors to cover foreseeable want/need. I have 'em. No way I'm going to go through the 41F hassles just for whatever minor advantages a newer model might give. I'm out of this market unless restrictions are eased. Not "I'm holding off in hopes HPA passes," but, "HPA or something like it must pass or I will not reenter the market."

You can't blame HPA for my refusal to deal with the current regulations and I bet most of the people who rushed to beat 41F think along the same lines.

Ed Ames said:

Doubtful. 41F? Sure, but not HPA. The reality is that the current regulatory burden is just too high.

I'm a reasonable example. When the 41F writing was on the wall I bought a range of suppressors to cover foreseeable want/need. I have 'em. No way I'm going to go through the 41F hassles just for whatever minor advantages a newer model might give. I'm out of this market unless restrictions are eased. Not "I'm holding off in hopes HPA passes," but, "HPA or something like it must pass or I will not reenter the market."

You can't blame HPA for my refusal to deal with the current regulations and I bet most of the people who rushed to beat 41F think along the same lines.

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In 2013 I finally broke down and established a trust, then bought a 30 caliber can and submitted a paper Form 1 to make a 22 can. When I discovered the eforms process I submitted electronically to make three more cans, three SBR and a SBS. I also filed one more paper Form 4 to buy a commercial 22 can.

Once 41F landed my NFA spending stopped. The only way it will ever resume is if HPA passes or if I damage one of my cans irreparably.

The small indoor range I joined does pistol permit classes 3 days a week and there are ranges all over the state doing the same. They're all going to be buying firearms however in Connecticut our governer is trying to make it $370 for initial permit fee and $300 renewel fee every 5 years. It's now $70 for renewal. He says it's to help balance state budget and state isn't targeting gun owners. BS. There's only 250,000 permit holders in the state. A friend of mine has been waiting 9 months for his permit approval from the town. Towns are blaming it on the excessive volume of people applying, but I don't buy that one. Some are blaming the feds for the long waiting time.

stonebuster said:

The small indoor range I joined does pistol permit classes 3 days a week and there are ranges all over the state doing the same. They're all going to be buying firearms however in Connecticut our governer is trying to make it $370 for initial permit fee and $300 renewel fee every 5 years. It's now $70 for renewal. He says it's to help balance state budget and state isn't targeting gun owners. BS. There's only 250,000 permit holders in the state. A friend of mine has been waiting 9 months for his permit approval from the town. Towns are blaming it on the excessive volume of people applying, but I don't buy that one. Some are blaming the feds for the long waiting time.

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What would the feds have to do with state concealed carry permits? And even if they are the ones holding it up, why would they target your state? Sounds like it's time to call shenanigans on your governor. That is an obscene amount of money to get a permit. Lots and lots of people just downright couldn't afford that.

Firearm sales declining or not just be thankful Trump won. If you look there are federal judges that have been appointed over the last eight years that are nothing more than unqualified political hacks. And you can't get rid of them except through the impeachment process. Good luck with that.

Solomonson said:

President Trump’s election appears to be negatively affecting gun sales in the U.S.

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March '17 had the 10th highest NICS count on record, higher than 9 out of the previous 12 months. So how are you measuring?

I think any slow down now is due more to a glut in the market. Particularly in AR style weapons. Self defense/carry firearms (handguns) should remain fairly level unless people are waiting for lower prices. Frankly I think if Trump can get some traction on moving illegals back out of the US, it will correspond with increases in crime for a period of time.

In reality the crooks in DC, and around the globe, armed with their media propaganda, will continue to fight at every turn to minimize or destroy Trumps agenda. (our agenda). They will do all they can to put America back on the destructive path they have been promoting. The whole issue of gun sales is going to be hard to read until further political settlements are established. The effects of eight years of an anti-American Kenyan born president is not going to disappear overnight. The people who put Obama in power are still very much active toward their goals.

ColoradoShooter77 said:

S&W is offering a $75 rebate on Shields, brings the cost down to $245, wow.

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With the M&P 2.0 recently released and no apparent limit on number of guns with the current rebate (ie, no "limit one per household") I'm not sure this isn't clearing out stock in preparation for a Shield 2.0.
Not saying I didn't jump on it anyways...

As far as I'm concerned, the ammo and gun makers made their own bed, milking the Obama years and screwing the customer with outrageous prices. Now, its our turn to reap the benefits.

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Just supply/demand, basic economics. When demand is up, of course there aren't discounts. If they discount things when there is high demand, the supply sells out and nobody can find one to buy (and we still saw that anyways!). Yes, "make hay while the sun shines". People knew for the last 8 years that guns never cost as much to make as was being charged, but bought anyways. Their own fault if they paid too much. Stop buying and the price will come down.

What I'm hoping is now that the AR market is saturated from everyone and their brother cranking out AR parts for the last 8 years, we'll see some of these companies start to innovate. There are probably more AR parts makers than the market can support once prices fall back to non-panic levels. They are going to have to make something to stand out. Some already are/always were. Others are going to find that their cash cow just isn't so desirable anymore. Should be fun to see what new stuff we get!

I wouldn't call it shrinking so much as deflating back to "normal". But really, I haven't seen any slow down at our local gun shows or ranges or anything post Trump, yet.

Solomonson wrote:
President Trump’s election appears to be negatively affecting gun sales in the U.S. and the bubble appears to be bursting despite a staunch advocate for gun rights in the White House and Republicans ruling Congress.

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I think the bubble is bursting precisely because there is a gun advocate in the White House and Republicans in control of Congress. With the threat of Hillary banning, registering, confiscating, or whatever other evil could be attributed to her having vanished people no longer feel a need to get a pistol, an AR, ammunition, components or whatever they were stockpiling, before those things went away forever. Other things people had been deferring during the panic, like new tires for the family car, a new clothes dryer or piano lessons for the kids, now have a greater priority than they did when the Hillary boogie-man was the topic of every conservative talk show.

The companies with a plan and the cash reserves to execute it will have some lean times, but will survive as the panic dies and a new equilibrium is established within the market. Those without a plan or without sufficient finanical reserves will be the subject of a post a few years from now asking people about the history of an AR found at a gun show in Couch, Missouri, stamped "Ed's Conoco Station and Armory".

If a slight drop in sales is a slow down then we're seeing it. As others have said, sales are still strong. So I think we don't have much to worry about. I suspect the civil unrest and efforts on the left to remove Trump are keeping the fear alive.

Personally I'm not buying to buy, rather I'm building up my stock of ammo and components as budget allows. A little each month to not have to be caught in a shortage. I know I'm not alone.

At last months gun show I saw good prices on primers, powder and brass. Gun prices though were strong. Prices on lowers were reasonable. Ironically my local Walmart has all types of primers except small rifle.

I guess it all shows that panic buying is slowing, people appear to be more like me and have a bit of a plan. So we shall see what happens the next six months!