According To The FBI...

Remember staticistics can be odd things, for example since almost everyone has 2 arms but some have only one arm and nobody (that I've heard of) has 3.

If you have 2 arms, statistically, you have an above average number of arms.

Corpral_Agarn said:

I know that CA lawyers are using a similar line of thinking to justify mag capacity limits.

I wonder if they have sources to cite.

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If they don’t, I’m sure they’ll make some up.

Kleanbore said:

Not to quibble, but I don't know that the severity of a COM hit is worse. The likelihood is higher.

And then there's the issue of how to mitigate the risk.

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Protect the “boiler room” first, then the eggs and legs.

Kleanbore said:

What are you talking about?

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Why body armor on torso. Sorry...should have referenced jmorris text on why body armor on chest, not legs.

.455_Hunter said:

What goes hand-in-hand with number of shots fired is engagement distance.

Saying you want to be "above average" and carry a weapon with 10+ rounds, but then dismiss longer range practice (25+ yards) as not needed for a defensive shooting is being somewhat hypocritical.

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What kind of self-defense scenarios make it safer to fire on a 25-yard target rather than simply to flee for cover?

Here is a more sophisticated version of the “three yards three shots” thing.

In a nutshell, Craig Douglas tells a retired soldier that “studies show” that legit civilian self-defense usually involves an assailant who is right in your face. Therefore, he says, you need to learn this special, highly difficult shooting technique.

He has me convinced; what do you all think? :

pairof44sp said:

What kind of self-defense scenarios make it safer to fire on a 25-yard target rather than simply to flee for cover?

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Is this really a question?

.455_Hunter said:

Is this really a question?

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This is an internet forum, after all........

.455_Hunter said:

Is this really a question?

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Yes, real question. I am just trying to think of a 25-yard self defense scenario, but coming up empty-handed.

I guess, returning fire if you’re pinned down after taking cover from a shooter who’s 25 yards away?

pairof44sp said:

Yes, real question. I am just trying to think of a 25-yard self defense scenario, but coming up empty-handed.

I guess, returning fire if you’re pinned down after taking cover from a shooter who’s 25 yards away?

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Just ask Stephen Willeford if distance shooting is necessary in an encounter.

Only training for the close range mag dump doesn't prepare you for all situations.

.455_Hunter said:

Just ask Stephen Willeford if distance shooting is necessary in an encounter.

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Thanks for the help, old-timer.

Kleanbore said:

A defense of a third party scenario might be more likely.

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Yes- both are potential scenarios. How much weight you give to each in your training regimen is your personal decision, and not reliant on input from third party "experts".

Spending a little time on the "Active Self Protection" youtube channel will give you some understanding of real world fights.

Kleanbore said:

Yes , and hopefully, an informed one.

Those who patronize service stations and who go to most parking lots will reasonably choose to prioritize the short distances where 90% of deadly force events occur.

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Absolutely right. Devoting the vast majority of training to close range drill is correct. However, working the long range skill set should be a part of the remainder.

Double Naught Spy said:

People want to believe the fabled FBI statistic so much, they will pigeon hole events to fit. This article/video discusses a statistically perfect gunfight (According to FBI stats). How many things can you spot that are wrong about the claims being made by Kevin Michalowski?
https://www.usconcealedcarry.com/blog/the-statistically-perfect-gunfight/

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Most of the folks that I hearing citing the old "3-3-3" saw are using it to rationalize to themselves carrying an Airweight or Ruger LCP. Reality is a bit more complicated. Ellifritz has a link on his blog to a security of a retired firefighter with a snubby that gets attacked by 3 carjackers with weapons already drawn. He put up a good scrap but was killed. Three-on-one is bad odds no matter what you carry, especially drawing against three guys with guns already drawn. I recalls Given's saying a snubby is a One-bad-guy gun and a 1911 is a Two-bad-guy gun. While not a truism it's a useful way to look at things.

pairof44sp said:

Yes, real question. I am just trying to think of a 25-yard self defense scenario, but coming up empty-handed.

I guess, returning fire if you’re pinned down after taking cover from a shooter who’s 25 yards away?

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Really? Where I live, there are intersections much more than 25 yards across. Some bad guy with a rifle shooting at cars could put me in that situation very fast. It doesn't mean that I would stop my car get out and shoot, but if I'm boxed in, I may not have a choice. 25 yards is really not very far away at all.

Phaedrus/69 said:

Most of the folks that I hearing citing the old "3-3-3" saw are using it to rationalize to themselves carrying an Airweight or Ruger LCP. Reality is a bit more complicated. Ellifritz has a link on his blog to a security of a retired firefighter with a snubby that gets attacked by 3 carjackers with weapons already drawn. He put up a good scrap but was killed. Three-on-one is bad odds no matter what you carry, especially drawing against three guys with guns already drawn. I recalls Given's saying a snubby is a One-bad-guy gun and a 1911 is a Two-bad-guy gun. While not a truism it's a useful way to look at things.

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There is an example to support almost every defensive viewpoint.

Locally, we had a LEO killed when her high-capacity 9mm malfunctioned/jammed after just a one or two rounds during the response to a domestic violence call. She was unable to get the weapon functioning again, had no BUG, and ended up being executed while attempting to hide under a vehicle.

Does this mean high capacity 9mms are not appropriate for service? In her case, it wasn't even a "one bad guy gun".

Would there have been a better outcome is she had been armed with a S&W .38 wheelgun? Maybe so.

I am not arguing the above, just pointing out that using one example of an event to justify choices of carry equipment can be problematic.

Kleanbore said:

That simply describes the statistical variation, and it therefore supports only the high end of the scale on capacity, etc.

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The example I provided highlighted the unreliability and situational failure of a high-capacity semi-auto weapon.

It is just a valid of an example as Ellifirtz's snub insufficiency story.

In both cases the good "guy" ended-up dead.

Just to be clear, Ellifritz isn't bashing snubs, it was just an incident that he linked on his blog. Certainly there are no lack of anecdotes, and of course wheelguns also malfunction. Often if a wheelgun malfunctions it's very difficult to get it back into action again. Sometimes just displaying a gun scares off the bad gun, other times no amount of gun is "enough".

Phaedrus/69 said:

Just to be clear, Ellifritz isn't bashing snubs, it was just an incident that he linked on his blog. Certainly there are no lack of anecdotes, and of course wheelguns also malfunction. Often if a wheelgun malfunctions it's very difficult to get it back into action again. Sometimes just displaying a gun scares off the bad gun, other times no amount of gun is "enough".

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Agree 100%. Pretty much every scenario has an example of real life occurrence. It all comes down to your personal assessment of your carry needs, not the FBI, not a talking head with a blog or YouTube channel, and definitely not a self-professed gun forum "expert". All of the above are interesting and can be used to guide the development of your assessment, but shouldn't outweigh your direct knowledge of your own strengths, weaknesses, experiences and daily routine.