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According To The FBI...

Discussion in 'Strategies, Tactics, and Training' started by Trunk Monkey, Oct 29, 2020.

  1. Trunk Monkey

    Trunk Monkey member

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    I have seen this statistic posted on every single internet gun form I have ever read.

    "According to the FBI the average (civilian) gun fight is 3 rounds (sometimes they add "at 3 yards, in 3 seconds). "

    When you ask for a specific cite none seems to be available.

    I have looked all over. I looked in the Uniform Crime Report. I looked at the Kleck Study. I even looked at the Rand Study.

    I can not find anything even close to those figures.

    Where does this statistic originate from?
     
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  2. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    Folklore.

    Think about it: assuming that that means that three rounds are fired by one combatant in three seconds, that means that the "split time" is 1 second.

    But maybe it's two seconds, of one participant fire two shots, and the other , one.

    And apparently the attacker remained virtually still for the duration.

    It doesn't pass the smell test.
     
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  3. GooseGestapo

    GooseGestapo Member

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    It’s folklore of ancient origin.
    In the Early-mid’70’s, either the FBI or NYPD published a paper on such.
    Remember that most agencies carried revolvers at the time.

    I do know that it influenced the Alabama DCNR to issue its officers S&W Mod 60’s. The qualification course was only out to 7yds! (Per officer that did a lecture in a Wildlife L.E. Course I was taking at Auburn University in spring of 1977).
    Didn’t take long before they went back to .357’s and speed loaders...

    Several years ago, NYPD released a study where since transitioning to semi-autos, the number of shots was up to 9+, iirc.

    The trend now is to lighter calibers and larger capacities. (Again...)
    But, just a few years ago, civilians were limited to a 10shot capacity.. (AWB!).
    Then, the trend was to compact .40’s, 10’s, and .45’s....
    Since 10 shots were all you got... without a mag dump
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
  4. wiscoaster

    wiscoaster Member

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    Could be one of those lies propagated by anti-gunners to justify "commonsense" magazine capacity limits.
     
  5. jmorris

    jmorris Member

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    86.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot. :)
     
  6. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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  7. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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  8. Trunk Monkey

    Trunk Monkey member

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  9. TomJ
    • Contributing Member

    TomJ Contributing Member

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    It never seemed like a good idea to assume that in the event I'm attacked, the attack that occurred to someone else is going to happen to me as SD scenarios vary.
     
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  10. psyopspec

    psyopspec Member

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    It seems to hold true based on the multiple data points posted by John at ASP. In either case, it wouldn't much matter to me even if it were true, since there's no way to ensure that your gunfight will be average.
     
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  11. Trunk Monkey

    Trunk Monkey member

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    I found it very interesting that he specifically referred to "The FBI stats"
     
  12. SharpDog

    SharpDog Member

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    IMHO it does not make much of a difference for me I want to plan for 'worst case' and carry as much as I feel comfortable with. This means, for me, a standard capacity of at least 10 rds and 1 or 2 (generally larger) spares . That would be 20 rds. minimum and usually double that.
     
  13. Corpral_Agarn

    Corpral_Agarn Member

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    I know that CA lawyers are using a similar line of thinking to justify mag capacity limits.

    I wonder if they have sources to cite.
     
  14. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    ....without identifying a source.

    I would tend to discount most of everything he presents as fact..
     
  15. lemaymiami

    lemaymiami Member

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    I’ve always expected that folks who publish papers on any topic will only cherry pick those statistics that support whatever they’re claiming... And that those who generate “studies” of one kind or another aren’t very likely to have any real world, hands on experience with their chosen subject matter.

    Taking that into consideration, even if they have their facts straight, I’ve always thought that most of the bad situations I’ve been in were never what your education would lead you to expect...

    So if you’re ever unlucky enough to be in an armed confrontation you’d better expect the worst instead of some brief encounter... That might just help you survive.
     
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  16. old lady new shooter

    old lady new shooter Member

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  17. DocRock

    DocRock Member

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    I, for one, most certainly do not ever want to be in an average gunfight in any event. Having been shot at several times with no ability to respond, if I am ever in a position to shoot back, I'm looking for the statistically impossible result whereby my shots neutralize the threat without their shots coming anywhere near me.
     
  18. Stevel

    Stevel Member

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    The other day the officers in Philly shot 14 rounds at Walter Wallace Jr. who was coming at them with a knife. They didn't release how many made contact.
     
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  19. fastbolt

    fastbolt Member

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    I've heard the generalized "gunfight statistics" mentioned now and again. I've even heard the FBI mentioned in relation to them, and I've also heard of other major LE agencies having been involved in gathering info on shooting incidents over the years, as well. Some agencies have gathered such statistics and numbers since at least the 60's, and earlier. From how I've heard it mentioned by other LE instructors, this "FBI statistic" goes back to their days of carrying service revolvers.

    I remember when I was a younger instructor, with a little more than 10 years serving as an instructor, the head instructor used to mention in classes a generalized categorization of deadly force incidents. He summed it up by mentioning that according to some LE statistics, most shootings occurred in diminished light, within 6 feet, and were over within 2-3 seconds. I've also heard it said that it might involve up to 4 rounds being fired.

    Some instructors like to discuss different versions of the NYPD SOP 9 statistics, and there are certainly other LE-sourced training materials that go into detail about other agency reviews of OIS incidents.

    I attended one of the traveling field classes of the FBI's LEOKA program about 10 years ago, and FWIW, the instructor didn't mention a neat one-size-fits-all "statistical ratio" of distance/time/shots-fired, although he did go into details about many other aspects of LE shootings and the criminals involved in them.

    Ditto in a class I attended taught by former Chief, now Dr Steven A. Rhoads (40 year police veteran with experience in Virginia, Colorado and Illinois), called Detecting Danger. It's a class taught to LE, involving detection of the verbal and nonverbal clues transmitted by offenders who are anticipating the use of violence. While it naturally involves close contact situations, and discusses examples of OIS incidents, there wasn't any neatly wrapped up distance/time/number-of-shots-fired statistics offered to students.

    I've attended 2 or 3 of the 1-day I've Been Shot classes taught by Lawrence Blum Ph.D., a clinical psychologist who "has treated hundreds of peace officers in the aftermath of lethal force encounters, traumatic crisis incidents, and the day-to-day challenges of police work". A good friend of mine was interviewed by him (so he could return to work) when he was involved in a couple of OIS incidents when he worked for LAPD. Lots of info in his 1-day seminars about incidents in which cops have been seriously injured, but nothing so neatly wrapped up in a statistical ratio package.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
  20. .455_Hunter

    .455_Hunter Member

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    What goes hand-in-hand with number of shots fired is engagement distance.

    Saying you want to be "above average" and carry a weapon with 10+ rounds, but then dismiss longer range practice (25+ yards) as not needed for a defensive shooting is being somewhat hypocritical.
     
  21. bdickens

    bdickens Member

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    Straight out of someone's a....
     
  22. murf

    murf Member

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    or just assuming the perp will have a handgun, not a long gun.

    a cop was in a gun battle with a perp in a trailer park (houston, texas i believe). the perp had a 30-30 lever gun and the cop had a pistol. another trailer park resident used his 357 magnum pistol @ 60 yards to shoot and incapacitate the perp.

    murf
     
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  23. WestKentucky

    WestKentucky Member

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    Statistics is witchcraft mathematics. You can take any number, run it through whatever formula you want to and make it spit out a number that can be justified by any explanation that you give.

    How many road workers does it take to pave a driveway? 1 if you spread him really thin, 2 if you give them plenty time to do it, and 29 if you let the state do it because 21 of them have to hold shovels and 2 have to carry clipboards, 2 to do the work, 2 to flag traffic, and the last 2 are running the foreman’s errands in company vehicles. Which number do you like?

    Or how many shots does it take to stop a fictitious attacker... well I fired 19 rounds, 4 of the rounds hit the attacker in his fingers and toes, but the single round that actually stopped him was the one that hit his crotch and splintered his pelvis. So how many rounds did it take? 18 wasn’t enough, 5 connected and stopped the guy, and 1 single round did the trick. Again, what answer do you like best?
     
  24. CDW4ME

    CDW4ME Member

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    The 3-3 that is so frequently cited as justification / rationalization for choosing to carry "less" is based on officers that were killed.
    Statistic based on those that unfortunately got killed is not criteria for how I choose my carry.
     
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  25. Trunk Monkey

    Trunk Monkey member

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    No. It's not. Did you read the link that Double Naught Spy provided?

    The "FBI Stats" aren't accurate but they're not completely fabricated either
     
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