Crossing the threshold of being prudent..or..a hoarder. Rethinking inventory.i

I've been going through these politically driven shortages for 30 years, starting in the early 90s.

FROGO207 said:

Primers, primers, primers, these are what will dissapear first, always has been.

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And I've been preaching this truth since joining this forum.

Many powders can be made to work, but without a primer nothing goes bang.

Rembrandt said:

Hope I'm being prudent and not a hoarder.

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First a few definitions:

When you can't achieve your other financial goals, or can't get to your kitchen from the living room, because your stock of reloading supplies are in the way, then you'll be a hoarder. When you let on that you aren't effected by a price spike because you bought cheap and stacked it deep, you will be called a hoarder by the envious.

Stop using the language of envious Marxists, and your thinking will clear up.

Rembrandt said:

Re-thinking how much to have on hand.....1-2-or 3 years worth.

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Your ambitions are tiny; expand them.

ETA: and one more thing. If you can't afford to buy 20 years of reloading supplies at 40% below retail (over several years as you find deals), then you can't afford to shoot recreationally. This is less money than most people spend on cable TV , or on their car payment .

Fine Figure of a Man said:

I buy components in large quantities when they are cheap so I don't have to buy them when they are expensive. It has worked for me through a few cycles now.

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Excellent idea! Now, tell me your secret of predicting when that is???? I’ve always wanted a crystal ball for this, and, predicting the lows in the stock market. That way I can use the stock market profit to offset high component prices should those cycles not coincide.
I have two sons who recently got in to competition and are reloading so my supply is being rationed by 3. I will be adjusting my buy ahead time, hopefully when component prices stabilize a bit more. @FROGO207 has the right idea, about 2x what I have done in the past. Good luck.

lordpaxman said:

tell me your secret of predicting when that is???

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Changes in the executive branch of federal government from a high tax, restrictive regulation, anti business, anti 2A administration to a predominately pro 2A administration that cuts taxes and eliminates federal regulations has been a key indicator in the past.

I am going to sell/trade 31,000 primers today . The shop owner did not call me a hoarder when he saw my supply , he called me prepared. A serious shooter knows what it takes to protect his future in shooting , you need to buy bulk everything . This is nothing new, it has been going on for decades . You learn to adapt to the times or get left behind .

What I understand from hanging out here is, I don't go shoot near enough...I never bought over a 1000 primers at a time until '09.

Rembrandt said:

This is what I've been able to acquire in the last month (should be enough for a couple years). Will probably never use it all...

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Not sure I understand your math. Are you planning to die in the next two years?

Rembrandt said:

These shortages seem to be initiated most by elections

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Seems like you got the idea.

lordpaxman said:

Excellent idea! Now, tell me your secret of predicting when that is?

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Sure. Watch the retail market sales (not every day prices), and the secondary market, and track the tends. When you notice the prices exhibiting minimum asymptotic behavior (drifting towards and bouncing off an invisible minimum), and being used as a loss-leader, buy. That invisible minimum is the cost of materials+conversion+capital for the current business models.

Success doesn't require buying at the bottom, it requires not buying at the top.

ETA: You can also cheat and grant politics a sideward glance.

Rembrandt said:

Now that shelves are starting to be restocked....contemplating how far to go to avoid another drought?

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I am of the buy low, sell high mentality. Once the shelves are fully stocked and have been long enough items are put on sale to keep them moving, that’s the time to “stock up”.

After the AWB in 1994 and Obama part 2/Sandyhook in 2012, people said things were never going back to the way they were before, yet everything was plentiful (ok maybe not 8208 XBR) before the panic buying sucked everything up including toilet paper and the powers that be wanted to shutdown all US production of everything.

I still have and use powder and primers that are 30+ years old.

Rembrandt said:

Powder is sort of like lettuce, has a shorter shelf life than primers and bullets.

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It's not nearly so bad as all that. I'm happily shooting M1 ball loaded at Lake City in the early '40s, and canister powders from the '60s forward bought on the secondary market. They could go bad, and might, but it's rarer than the hubbub would have you think.

The chances of your piddly 10 year supply going sour is very small. Aim for 20.

If your a serious shooter, cost or storage limits will be your shortfall. 20 lbs of powder may be great for pistol only if your using a fast powder. You can use that up in rifle in short order. Having a good supply of your most versatile powder will help weather the storm. For me that's a magnum pistol powder like 2400 which I use in cast rifle loads and pistol. I dont shoot shotgun and in my scenario it's the best choice over unique. A pound of tightgroup covers my other critical needs in smaller cases but bullseye or ramshot competion would also work.

edwardware said:

Success doesn't require buying at the bottom, it requires not buying at the top.

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This, exactly. "Buy low - Sell high" is the oldest and best known formula for stockpiling any commodity and has been since Adam Smith was lecturing David Hume on the value of morality; and Hume was lecturing Smith on the values of amorality.

Word to the wise. Start limiting your components. At present I can live with 3 different primers and 2-3 powders for everything I shoot. For the last 2-3 years I have been buying the primers by the case and the powder by the keg. As time went by I only bought what worked the absolute best.

JB

edwardware said:

It's not nearly so bad as all that. I'm happily shooting M1 ball loaded at Lake City in the early '40s, and canister powders from the '60s forward bought on the secondary market. They could go bad, and might, but it's rarer than the hubbub would have you think.

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I'm loading powder I bought 19-20 years ago (granted, it has been stored in climate controlled environment for all that time) and loading primers that are just as old. And let me add to the anecdotal evidence that primers are resilient - my old primers spent about 16 years in a NOT climate controlled garage in the Midwest, and they still go bang. (Not recommending that storage method, but that's how I stored them for the years I wasn't reloading until I got back into it last year.)

To me "hoarding" is a word contrived by those not quite bright enough to understand that everything in the world is cyclic. Nearly free on every street corner one day, and then can't be found 'for love nor money' the next.

This is why the Boy Scouts formerly taught young men to "Be Prepared". This is why the Bible teaches "7 fat cows, 7 skinny cows". But as soon as Progressives did away with those institutions, they had to find a way to downgrade and carry out character assassination on those who were being prepared. Enter the words "hoarder" and "gouger" into the Facebook lexicon.

I'm not a "hoarder". I simply had the wherewithal to buy primers when they were cheap, because I know I couldn't make them myself.

rfwobbly said:

To me "hoarding" is a word contrived by those not quite bright enough to understand that everything in the world is cyclic. Nearly free on every street corner one day, and then can't be found 'for love nor money' the next.

This is why the Boy Scouts formerly taught young men to "Be Prepared". This is why the Bible teaches "7 fat cows, 7 skinny cows". But as soon as Progressives did away with those institutions, they had to find a way to downgrade and carry out character assassination on those who were being prepared. Enter the words "hoarder" and "gouger" into the Facebook lexicon.

I'm not a "hoarder". I simply had the wherewithal to buy primers when they were cheap, because I know I couldn't make them myself.

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This is a horde:


And these are hoarders:


"Capitalism" is also a word contrived to denigrate people who engage in free commerce. When you have an ideology instead of a philosophy, denigrating others is the only way to justify your existence.

I never think of it as hoarding. For decades when I see a good price on loaded ammunition or reloading components I use I buy. Thanksgiving day just prior to Sandy Hook the now defunct Gander Mountain had a sale on Federal 223. A 1,000 round can, including the can was $300. I mentioned it to my wife over morning coffee. I went up to Gander Mountain and bought a can. Gander was a 5 min ride on the Interstate. Got home and my wife mentioned if it was a good price go back a get more so I went back and bought 2 more cans. While I am not nuts about the GI bulk 223 the price was good. Remember what followed less than a month later? A few years back Cabela's was selling off Seller & Bellot primers for $18 a thousand so I figured why not and bought 5,000 but wasn't sure my order went through and ordered 5,000. I ended up with 10,000 large rifle primers. I get emails from Nosler and they were selling 400 rounds of 223 40 grain ballistic tip for $100 including shipping. Great for my 1:12 bolt gun so I bought it, nice plastic pouches of 10 rounds each all in a nice plastic ammo can. The list goes on but the general idea is when there is a good deal stock up. The kids are grown with kids of their own so putting beanies and weenies on a table and making mortgage payments is no longer part of our lives. No I am not a so called hoarder but having survived the Clinton years and days long past many of us came away with lessons learned. During times like this I also have no problem sharing with family and friends.

I recently sold about 41 Lbs of powder bought during the mid 90s for $11 a pound to another THR member so I doubt I can be called a scalper. My heart does go out to the new shooters who may be feeding little mouths and making rent or mortgage payments. Those are the people I'll help out because there is not always the money for the extra ammo or components.

Ron

I bought more than needed when times were good so honestly I'm in pretty good shape. Having said that, if I can't go in the store and get components, I don't shoot. So I don't shoot now. Well, I don't shoot my firearms. I scratch my shooting itch with archery but darn I wish this would end because I want to make some noise again.

Regarding the shelf life, I still have powder over 30 years old that according to the chronograph is still fine. I've had one can of 4064 I bought much more recently than that that went bad....had the dreaded rust dust cloud....but aside from that I've never had any problems with old powder.