Brian Williams
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Where can I find the Stats to support the 3 shots, at 3 Yds in 3 seconds???
I have a guy at work who thinks 2 15 round mags isn't enough
I have a guy at work who thinks 2 15 round mags isn't enough
3@3n3
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RevDisk
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It isn't?
I've never heard of any official stats for the whole "3 shots, 3 yards, 3 seconds." But then again, this is Lancaster. Not Iraq. The odds of needing more than 30 rounds here in Amish country is very very slim.
The last fire fight I personally witnessed here in Lancaster was maybe 6-9 rounds from both parties combined. Only one direct hit, and it was very bad placement, at a distance of maybe 2, 3 meters.
Well, the truth is that the average use of a gun for self-defense doesn't even involve firing the gun. IIRC, that covers well over 80% of self-defense gun uses.
If we prepare for the average, then we should all leave our guns empty since the average confrontation doesn't even involve firing the gun.
Preparing for the average isn't always a sound approach...
If we prepare for the average, then we should all leave our guns empty since the average confrontation doesn't even involve firing the gun.
Preparing for the average isn't always a sound approach...
The averages I've heard usually say only one round is fired. I'm willing to bet that's averaging in all the 0 shots fired cases, though. You may want to check http://www.gunfacts.info and see if they cover the 3^3 figure.
pcf
Member
What if he is right?
In Iraq I carried 21 Magazines (6 on my interceptor, the rest in my pack), the standard for my unit was 7. I took some criticism and ridicule for carrying so many. "You'll never use that much ammo in fire fight" was said more than a couple times. The naysayers were right, never needed them all. But I now know what lottery winners describe as "meeting best friends you never knew you had." Every body is your best friend when you have a dozen loaded magazines and they have one left, and 130 miles left to go.
Just because you survived the first gunfight doesn't mean your day is over and you get to go home, you could still be in danger. Weapons and magazines malfunction. Sometimes magazines break.
Are two extra 15 round magazines excessive for CCW? If he's willing to carry to them, and they make him feel better and safer, then it's no one's business.
The 3 shot average is quoted for shootouts. There are no zero shots fired shootouts.
The point is that statistics can be very misleading.
For every case where one or two shots is fired, you have to have a case where more than 3 shots are fired to balance it.
How about this one.
Carry the average number of rounds that a person uses in self defense in a year. Surely a year's supply would be enough? That's another average that would have you carrying zero rounds.
The average provides some interesting information, but that doesn't mean that you can count on your situation being identical to the average, or even similar to the average. In fact, it doesn't even mean that the average shootout has ever happened!
Here are some sample shootouts.
1 shot
1 shots
1 shot
1 shot
11 shots
In this case, although the average number of shots required is 3, you'll notice that none of the shootouts actually required 3 shots. Also, 20% of the samples required nearly 5 times more shots than the average while 80% of the cases required 3 times less. If you prepared for the average, 80% of the time, you'd have 3x more shots than you needed but one time in five you'd need nearly 4 times more than you had on hand.
Preparing for the average isn't always such a great idea.
Yes, but I meant the 1 round figure (which is what I hear more commonly than 3 rounds) is probably based on all "incidents" in which a gun is drawn, fired or no.
Me, I usually have 40 rounds of .40 caliber when carrying. It's kind of heavy, but when you add up the weight, a G23 and 2 spares actually weighs about the same as a full-sized 1911 and 1 spare, or a commander-sized one and 2 spares.
Me, I usually have 40 rounds of .40 caliber when carrying. It's kind of heavy, but when you add up the weight, a G23 and 2 spares actually weighs about the same as a full-sized 1911 and 1 spare, or a commander-sized one and 2 spares.
There are somewhere around 2 million defensive gun uses in the U.S. every year and in something like 88% of those uses, the gun is never fired.
So, let's take a look. If shots are fired only 12% of the time in 2 million uses, that's 240,000 encounters that involve shots fired.
To find how many shots are required (on average) in the cases where shots are fired to bring the average for all 2 million up to even 1 shots fired, we need to solve the following equation for 'S'.
(240,000 x S)/2,000,000 = 1
S = 8.3
That means that in order for the average number of shots for ALL 2 million defensive gun uses to equal 1, the average number of shots in the 240,000 cases where shots were fired would have to equal 8.3 shots per encounter.
Any way you look at it, preparing for the average doesn't make sense.
8.3 does sound plausible. I think the NYPD found that officers fired an average of 8 times in actual gunfights. In any case, though, yeah. Statistics don't give you any useful info about gunfights, and they definitely don't predict what future gunfights will be like. Just carry as much ammo as you comfortably can, and try to make sure you're in good enough shape to run really fast.
3 statisticans went out hunting. They came upon a deer that they had permit for. The first statistician shot at the deer and missed by 2 feet to the left. The second statistician shot at the deer and missed by 2 feet to the right. The third statistician jumped up and yelled " Yahh.. we hit him " .
Remember Twain
"Lies, D*** Lies, and Statistics"
NukemJim
Remember Twain
"Lies, D*** Lies, and Statistics"
NukemJim
XLMiguel
Member
Hmmmmm. I heard the 'average' gunfight involved less than 5 shots inside of 5 yards, and was over in 5 seconds or less. Go figure?
sm
member
Brian,
I too have read that statistic; in the few searches I have conducted - not found the source yet.
Best I recall it was cited over at TFL, I want to say Cirillo, Ayoob, Clint Smith or someone like them; obtained this data from a compliation of Various LEO agencies and the results of Officers involved in a shooting.
Perhaps one of our TFL members from years ago will recall, a member whom has taken training and the trainer quoted statistic and cite.
I'll continue to search, or I may get lazy and contact someone I know.
Steve
I too have read that statistic; in the few searches I have conducted - not found the source yet.
Best I recall it was cited over at TFL, I want to say Cirillo, Ayoob, Clint Smith or someone like them; obtained this data from a compliation of Various LEO agencies and the results of Officers involved in a shooting.
Perhaps one of our TFL members from years ago will recall, a member whom has taken training and the trainer quoted statistic and cite.
I'll continue to search, or I may get lazy and contact someone I know.
Steve
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