I agree with "not being the victim", but in a mugging when you are already drawn on, you kind of are. Of course you could draw, make him miss, et cetera.... At what cost? Is your family standing behind you? Who else is in the cross fire? How many years of court and how many thousands, and how much quality time, and mental anguish could it cost, if you hit an innocent, or just come out on the bad end of a litigious system and society?
Every situation is going to be completely different, and speculating on "what if's" could last forever.
When this topic comes up in concealed carry classes I teach, there's a couple of videos I show to illustrate different tactics that may work when you start off on the wrong footing (bad guy has the drop on you).
This one starts out with an off duty cop losing his awareness for a moment, and finding a gun shoved in to his face while pumping gas. He's facing 3 on 1 odds.
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This video shows the actual shoot; and how the cop distracted the guy with the gun by handing him something in his pocket.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8ac_1392220321&comments=1
The bad guy with the gun died, the other two ran off.
Practicing draw from concealment, point shooting from retention holds, and getting smooth transitioning from draw to first round on target is important for dealing with scenarios like these. I briefly covered the topic of close quarters draw in this TV show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j41sYCPX6Hw&t=17m35s
In class we cover a variety of scenarios, lateral movement while shooting, which direction is safer to move to depending on the attacker's distance and strong side, etc.
I have no idea where you're pulling statistics like these;
70 some percent of physical attacks are dictated to be won or lost simply by who strikes first.
But aside from a firearms self-defense instructor I have also been in martial arts for 30 years and taught for the last 25 of those. Who throws the first blow is largely irrelevant in a fight; the person with more training and skill has a significant advantage. Case in point; ten years ago I was unfortunate enough to have to USE what I know when I was attacked by a man with a knife at very close range. He tackled me - I was blindsided - and he brought a knife in to play once he'd landed on top of me. I walked away with his knife, he lost two teeth and was knocked unconscious. My right arm was the only thing I had free; it was pinned mostly across my chest. Used my elbow on his jaw, and it was over. My wife was standing right there, and missed the entire show in the time it took for her to turn around!
(On a related note, sometimes you find yourself caught off guard because the attacker is friend / family - in this case, a very, very drunk, and very suicidal friend.)
First blow doesn't matter one bit, as long as it's not immediately fatal or incapacitating - what matters is that you fight back and know HOW to go about fighting back. If you know your business you stand much better than even odds against an untrained / unskilled attacker.
And what are the chances that after being shot that the defender will come out "on top"?
Watch this video.
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Lance Thomas is a jeweler who was in not one.. not two.. not three.. but FOUR gunfights. In each of those fights he was on the defensive, several were against multiple armed attackers,
and in more than one fight he was shot and kept fighting.
There are a LOT of valuable points to gain from that video and the interviews with him; the importance of training, mindset, and the attitude of "I refuse to be a victim."
I'm not trying to bash what you are staying here; on the surface what you are suggesting makes sense, but dig in to the topic a little deeper, do some more research, and you'll find that a lot of the notions you've put forward are wrong, tactically, and from a "live to see another day" standpoint. There's TONS of incidents where people are shot and killed who did
not fight back, over a $20 bill (or similar).
Heck the NRA even has an entire instructor / training course program on the very topic:
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