Alaskan's weigh-in

[Ultima-Ratio]

A Few Small Factoids-

The BRITS have exclusive rights to Alaska oil, look at California prices (ya do know that BP has swallowed up almost all other competition?)
We Alaskans have THREE tax payer subsidized refineries already and the oil wells and still pay $2.00 a gallon for decaf gas (low oct), so for all that the average pfd is a whopping grand or less (big freaking deal!)
Oil wells have been drilled successfully at Gull Island and CAPPED! Ya gotta control the amount of product to keep prices High!
The vast majority of gasoline refined in Alaska heads outta America!

 

[TallPine]

The vast majority of gasoline refined in Alaska heads outta America!

There used to be a federal law - and maybe it is still in effect? - that prohibited foreign flag ships from carrying cargo from one US port to another US port (it was called the Jones Act IIRC).

AFAIK, almost all ships now are registered outside the US for tax and other reasons.

This "catch-22" also affects timber produced in Alaska.

 

[Art Eatman]

Tall Pine, there are lots of laws which never work as intended. Back when the North Slope was first being developed, a law was passed that none of the oil would be exported from the U.S. So, California oil was sold to Japan, and Alaskan oil got refined in California.

Separate from law--I think--and just as an economic matter, the Japanese had (have?) ships which load tree-trunks and make dimension lumber. The trees are logged in the US and Canada; most of the lumber is sold in the U.S. Go figure...

You can go nutzoid, trying to keep up with all this stuff.

Art

 

[carebear]

Yeah, the Jones act was a move by Wash, Ore, and Cali congressmen and senators directly to screw us. They feared being cut out of the resource shipping entirely.

I hate the Mann act too.

 

[thorn726]

I heard that any oil coming out of California, for example, has to be shipped to Japan or somewhere, as EPA (or the CA version of EPA) won't allow refineries in CA.

aside from what the other guys said which is true, our gas is all made right here,
and the refineries love to use it as an excuse to overcharge us,
there are one or two in this area , and im sure elsewhere in CA that produce gas for export, another reason they use to overcharge us here, that they shut down the CA fuel plant for a few months and can't convert the others.
BUT- i think most of the gas is exported mainly to other nearby states.
there is not much oil produced clsoe enough to here to make shipping it viable.
i doubt Nevada oil is even shipped over that hill to here.

as far as Alaska, i wish people would just give up their SUV's and drive less and we wouldn't be in this mess, but whatever, the jobs are needed.
i just hope that the Co.s doing it are very careful and REsponsible-
who knows what can be covered up way out there, and who knows how soon
we'll pack out and overheat this planet to the point folks need that land for living.

it's gonna be interesting. they better get it well underway in the next couple years, or it will very likely get pulled by the next administration.

 

[carebear]

Overpopulation, like deforestation, wolf "extinction" and a host of other environmental "issues", is a purely regional problem. We, as a species, aren't running out of space, or trees, or anything else.

Piss poor economies trash the planet, not utilization of resources. And, much like the gun industry, the old "oil companies aren't regulated enough" argument is a myth.

 

[YammyMonkey]

My wife grew up in Fairbanks and after looking into this a bit and talking to her, it sounds like a good idea to drill away. However, I heard somewhere that we would burn up more oil start to finish by surveying, drilling and transporting the oil from ANWR than we would get out of it. Anybody have any more info on that? From the map posted earlier it looks like you could just run about 100-150 miles of pipe west to connect with the TAPS, but would it do much good, or would you need to increase the size the the TAPS to flow the extra oil from ANWR?

 

[carebear]

The "amount of oil" estimates that get thrown around by the real anti's are ludicrously conservative. Almost every developed field in the continental US is still producing well beyond what the initial estimate of reserves was.

Heck, by any estimate available at the time they drilled, the Gulf platforms should have been sucking air for a while now, and they're still going strong.

Now, as you mention, the fight is to run the oil throught the currently at half-capacity trans-alaska pipeline and build the new natural gas pipeline alongside of it to keep the revenues in Alaska instead of Canada.

 

[Sam]

Hate to bust any bubbles but after we do drill ANWR and manipulate the prices back where we want them, we need to cap them.
Contrary to political hacks, we do have a national energy policy and it does not include reducing dependance on imported oil. That is for public consumption.

Policy says that we will buy as much foreign oil as possible at any price so long as we can still float a worthless dollar. US production of oil is discouraged simply to retain that oil for domestic consumption when we really need it. So say Assistant Secretary of Energy to me waaaay back .
Drill all we want in US and threaten to increase supply to con OPEC into lowering prices, then keep oil at home for rainy day.

Alaska oil not really included in the policy for the simple fact the we cannot field a large enough military to ensure retention of Alaskan oil. Drill the HE!! out of it and use it to manipulate prices but don't count on it.

Sam


Sam

 

[carebear]

Sam,

Aside from isolated and nigh-insupportable terroristic acts or a nuke, what military threat exists to prevent us retaining control of the North Slope oil fields in perpetuity?

The terrain for most of the pipeline can't support a non-technological military force for very long and anything with tech is just targets for us.

I can see back in the '50's when everybody thought Ivan was gonna drive T-62's across the frozen ice and seize the pipeline (a complete fantasy ) but now?

(I do agree we should and are use(ing) up their oil first, and use ANWR opening as the club to keep prices low)

 

[Sam]

It's more than tanks across the tundra. Logistics trail is too long for more than very short term support. Same reason prices are higher there than in the CONUS.

Sam

 

[carebear]

Right, but that cuts both ways and we would be operating on friendly territory. After all, we can fly, ship or drive here in all seasons.

They'd have to get here unnoticed, get out to the pipeline unnoticed (the areas not in built up areas are remote by definition) and then support themselves with an unobstrusive supply system in a harsh environment with limited mobility possible on foot, all while being hunted by locals. There's no "fish" to swim amongst.
Sure they could blow up one section, causing limited disruption, but then they couldn't get away to strike again. each team or individual would be a one shot deal. And even in Anchorage, they wouldn't get more teams in once we were alerted.

 

[Sam]

They do not have to touch the pipeline carebear. They just have to keep you from being able to sell the oil. Keep those tankers bottled up in harbor.
Easy to do. Real easy to do.

Sam

 

[ravinraven]

The "straight" skinny.

This PhD friend of mine who is a RINO naturally does not like the ANWR drilling idea because it might make America less dependent on foreign oil and therefore be good for Dubya and the country in general. He says there's only a 100 day supply of oil there. "That's the 'truth'."

So I googled a while and and found out that the world used about 71 million barrels a day of oil in 2003. I found out that the low estimate for the amt of oil in ANWR is 8 billion bbls. So by just counting on one hand I figgured that if we are now using 80 millions bbls/day, sure enuf, ANWR would supply the WHOLE WORLD for 100 days.

I told my "buddy" this fact and he called me a paranoid reactionary. I just love dropping facts in front of Liberals. Its like dropping a rock in a mud puddle. They splash mud on you and ignore the rock.

I have heard about our plan to buy all the world's oil and save our own for the day the doo-doo really hits the blower and then we'll have all the oil and they will be stuck feeding our dollars to their camels.

My furnace oil guy delivers the goods in an armored car these days. I asked him when the price of oil will stop going up and he said not until you can burn a dollar bill and get more heat out of it than you can get out of a dollar's worth of oil. So the end is in sight.

But one bright spot. That Kyoto treaty is really working. It has been sub-zero interspersed with hours of freezing rain and blizzard damn near all the time since the treaty went into effect on 16 Feb. Worst March I've seen in a while. It's a good thing the US didn't sign it. Just think how much colder it would be right now.

rr

 

[carebear]

Sam,

I've played "sink the tanker" up here for most of the '90's as OPFOR for Northern Edge. We have about an 80% success rate on all our attacks, land, swimmer, diver and RRC, but the reality is, that's because we were granted a secure base area. If the Blue Team had been allotted actual infantry assets and the freedom to run real counter-recon patrols rather than trying to simply do point defense, every attack would have been a one off. Shut down civilian boat traffic (often our cover) in the harbor and our success rate would have gone down even more.

The terrain and climate give the home team, who's operating at the end of the shorter, more secure supply line an almost insurmountable advantage. Trying to run ops out of an actual hidden base area in the woods around Valdez while being hunted is a no-go.

I think the parallel would be a short replay of the Battle of the Atlantic. Securing the local waters off Valdez and preventing a Cole until the blue water Navy (which just cannot be beat by anyone existing today, especially off our own coast) could take over escort duties wouldn't be that difficult under a "martial law" scenario.

Sneaking a strike force into Alaska, much less one with any serious assets, is much harder than into CONUS. Sustaining it is a pipedream.

 

[Wildalaska]

Im on the rooff in Spenard right now with the Swede, ready for duty sir!

WildsaveouroilAlaska

 

[carebear]

Stand ready trooper, but check your targets.

That moving lump of snow and last winter's dog doo might be Spiffy testing his new Indigi-flage.

 

[Sam]

This is my preferred method:

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/weaps/mines.htm

It is way to easy and as a matter of fact your waters might already be mined.

You might get a reasponse in 72 hours from the navy and you might not.
Someone that makes really good mines can close the place for years after 1 night of work.


And the BG's only have to do your terminal 1 time to shut you down.
You really want your oil to be a dependable supply, get Canada to let you run the pipe through there.

Sam

 

[R.H. Lee]

Im on the rooff in Spenard right now with the Swede, ready for duty sir!

Whew!! That's a relief. For awhile there, my angst was unbearable.

 

[spacemanspiff]

That moving lump of snow and last winter's dog doo might be Spiffy testing his new Indigi-flage

thanks carberry, blow my cover.

now i gotta make a new ghillie suit. gonna need a few thousand moose nuggets for this one.

 

[kikilee]

now i gotta make a new ghillie suit. gonna need a few thousand moose nuggets for this one.

Spacemanspiff - is there any wonder you are lacking in female companionship!!! I bet you be smellin REAL nice after being covert in that suit for a couple of days. Or is that the new Alaskan winter fragrance "ode de' moose poop"

The chicks have got to be lovin that one.

 

[Wildalaska]

Becasue of the mooses diet (twigs etc) moose poop is shaped like small chocolate balls, once dried it emits no odor and can be fashioned into such tourist items as swizzle sticks and earrings....

WildandyouguysbuyemAlaska

 

[Too Many Choices!?]

I always considered Alaskans more Canadian than American......

Something about being that close to the border lol.....Whuts that eh?...Thems fight'en words , but I already knew that so yes that makes me a small troll or "smoll" if you will..... I can't stand the snow anyway......I almost had a heartattack when Galveston had a White Christmas last December ! I thought I was gonna shatter.......

Hey, WildwishyouwereherebutgladI"mnotthereAlaska.....thit is kinda fun when did you start and can you quit anytime ........

 

[carebear]

True, it'd be theoretically possible to mine Valdez's harbor. But if they didn't do it pre-9/11 they'd have a tough time. The Navy is already there and they do all sorts of sweeps fairly regularly.

Also, again, ya gotta get a boat (one assumes since you can't sneak an airplane with bomb/mine laying capability into Alaska airspace) from across the ocean, with mines aboard, surreptitiously into a well-traveled and watched harbor area and get them planted.

If you use a "local color" boat you still have to get the mines themselves into the US. Except for the Russkie's, nobody else has that kind of submarine tech, so you're left with maybe a shipping container into Anchorage? Then you have to get the container to the Valdez port area and try to lay a significant amount of mines in some of the most aggressive tidal waters in the Pacific without the patrols coming over to ask who you are and what you're doing.

It's possible, but it'd be a wayyyyyy long shot, and is being looked for already, making the odds even higher.

I'm just saying, in general, this end of the oil distribution network is fairly well protected by isolation alone. Throw in active defense and the chance of one big or even a series of smaller significant strikes goes way down.

 

[carebear]

Oh, too many,

Most of Alaska is further away from the Canadian border than most of the lower 48 states are. Check it on a map.