Ammo industry: We won't see return to normal until 2023.

[Ignition Override]

alsaqr:

If a consistent group of Ammo Flippers, or random, actual consumers are always at your Academy when it opens —-then—-my question is why they didn’t arrive to buy up your store’s latest shipment of .223, 7.62x39 etc.

...especially if such ammo for semi-auto rifles is Russian/Ukrainian, which is always priced lower than the other brands.

 

[George Dickel]

There is a very large gun shop with firing range here, 58,000 square feet large. They have an area where they store ammo and there was a large amount of .45 ACP. Counted it up, it was in cases, and there was 72,000 rounds with more on the retail floor display shelves. Had nearly as much in 9mm and .40. Tuesday I was there to shoot and they had a huge stack of .223 and 5.56 but it was around $1.00 a round. The store has most calibers on hand but it is expensive. I was looking for 30-06 and only brand they had was $60 for a box of 20. Had to do some shopping at Walmart and thought I'd check the ammo counter, which has been empty for months now, and there was one lonely box of Remington 30-06 for $19.00. It went home with me. I think the only other box of ammo was 300 Win Mag but forget the price.

 

[Waveski]

Most plinkers won't pay 12.50-30$ for a box of 50 high end match .22s. So it leaves match ammo for me.

Acknowledged , thanks.

 

[George P]

OK, a question about European .22lr ammo like the Lapua/SK, RWS and Eley lines:
Can they, too, not make it fast enough, or is the problem getting it to and into the U.S., or is it coming in but getting snapped up super fast?
Prior to this panic, you could pick a brick of middling match .22 like the Eley-made Wolf Match Extra or the SK Rifle Match all day, every day for about $70 a brick, to your door. A box, a brick, a case, multiples of any ... no problem.
You wanted to climb the ladder a bit and go $120 for a brick of Lapua Center-X ... no problem, how many you want?
Now, oy! Not so much.
Even Killough Shooting Sports, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Eley, can't keep much in stock for beyond a day or two.
Is our current appetite for ammo simply that voracious?

Most of those European businesses were not considered essential or had major employee shortages so things didn't stay at full production; same goes for shipping and receiving and distribution

 

[alsaqr]

If a consistent group of Ammo Flippers, or random, actual consumers are always at your Academy when it opens —-then—-my question is why they didn’t arrive to buy up your store’s latest shipment of .223, 7.62x39 etc.

Maybe because Academy limits purchases to two 20 round boxes. Maybe Academy receives the stuff faster than it goes out.

 

[DeepSouth]

Their is a guy who I’ve know about 30 years, he’s good friends with my brother. He currently lives around Waco Texas, he has no job (disability) and gets to hit Academy up every morning if he wants. I recently heard him complaining about them limiting ammo purchases.

He had a few minutes earlier told me had about 17,000 rounds of 22lr. I didn’t mind telling him people like him are likely biggest part of the problem.

Here I am ordering 22lr for the first time in my life, and for 13ish¢ a round + shipping. I’m large part because of people like that.

 

[blue32]

I have serious doubts that 209s and Unique or 20/28 will be available by next fall. I see a flat purchase in my future.

 

[lsudave]

Went into my local Ace Hardware today. They had some ammo, like Remington 9mm, Federal 9mm, Federal 45 in 100 packs, some 40, and little lots of Hornady Critical Defense 380, 40, etc.

After talking to the manager for a while, their ammo contacts are going to be canceling all of their back ordered ammo, and raise the prices. So...its going to be a roller coaster ride for a while longer.
But ammo is slowly coming back. Better then this time last year, that's for sure.

Are you quite sure about that?

I'm on another forum discussing ammo, and along the course of the discussion, I decided to go back and check some of my orders at places online. Quite interesting:
I bought a case of Herter's Brass 9mm from Bass Pro on June 22, for $179.98 shipped. Same thing, May 16, $171.89 shipped.
"This time last year" was 18 cents a rd for new manufactured brass case, "store brand" bargain ammo.

 

[Airborne Falcon]

I can't find primers to reload. Im only loading LPP because I bought 10,000 in better times. I'll be buying 100,000 spp when I can find then for 5 cents or less.

I've been saying 2023 since late last year ... if we're lucky.

I've also been saying prices will never go back to normal ... there is going to be a new normal. Prices will remain comparatively high. Primers will settle-in around $70 per 1k. That's more like .7 cents each ... so it may be awhile before you see 100k SPPs at a nickle each.

This time last year I dropped under 100k primers ... now I am under 40k and somewhat worried. Less than 5k of those are SPPs. Most are MSRs ... but I am good on large pistol and large mag pistol and small mag pistol.

Which means I will be running out of primers either late this year or early next year a full year or more before I expect to see primers returning at even $70 per 1k.

 

[MosinT53Hunter]

Are you quite sure about that?

I'm on another forum discussing ammo, and along the course of the discussion, I decided to go back and check some of my orders at places online. Quite interesting:
I bought a case of Herter's Brass 9mm from Bass Pro on June 22, for $179.98 shipped. Same thing, May 16, $171.89 shipped.
"This time last year" was 18 cents a rd for new manufactured brass case, "store brand" bargain ammo.

I am quite sure, as there was "NO" ammunition to be had. At least there is a little of this, and a little of that this year.

 

[lsudave]

In that other forum, I also posted this

Once you get what you consider 'essential', decide what is:
a) a "GREAT" price, basically a can't-miss deal
b) the price you consider as "acceptable", if you were running low.

Then, watch the market, and watch society. If you can find a good deal, get it.
And if you see signs of unrest- toilet paper runs, gas lines and shortages, (riots in cities, pandemics causing lockdowns ) then grab whatever you find at the 'acceptable' price, while you can.

I don't consider myself a prepper; just a guy who likes to go to the range and shoot fairly regularly. Covid panics caused shutdowns and toilet paper shortages by April. There were major riots in cities before May. All those "the end of the world as we know it" jokes were no longer jokes, things were in VERY serious upheaval.
And as I posted just as an example, I was able to get 2k of Herter's 9mm for under $360, in the midst of the lockdowns.

I made other orders, other sites, other brands, different calibers. In late May, I got a case of Tula 9mm for $167 shipped- that's from Global Ordnance, where shipping is $13. So we're talking $154 for the case.

Speaking of Global, this was from July 15

• $210.00 1 × TulAmmo 7.62x39 122GR 1000RD Case UPC: 814950015010
• $250.00 1 × Tula .223REM 55GR FMJ Non-Corrosive 1000 Round Case UPC: 814950011159-CS

Ha, at the time I considered that a bit pricey, but felt it was worth it.
Seems that it WAS.

 

[lsudave]

I am quite sure, as there was "NO" ammunition to be had. At least there is a little of this, and a little of that this year.

There ABSOLUTELY WAS ammo this time last year, if you looked around. You did have to look, and you had to be decisive- if you found it, you had to buy right then. No waiting to decide if you were maybe going over budget. Regarding budget- you can decide if you want to buy ammo monthly, or if you want to "bite the bullet" and get a large amount upfront, and then let it ride awhile. Without going into too much detail, I carefully considered all the pending uncertainty last year- covid, riots, upcoming elections, etc- and decided I would plan for ... awhile. Like, until things settle down again, maybe midterms etc. My savings went low during that stretch... but since I made my purchases (and haven't since), my savings are balancing out. If I'd have waited, I'd be paying a lot more now.
If things never went haywire, I'd still be in the same boat I am now- comfortably supplied, current income not going into ammo.

 

[Trashyshoots]

Lots of people are guessing, a very few are semi-educated guesses. No one really knows what’s going to happen or when. You’ll have better luck predicting where and when Dogecoin will go.

We’re just along for the ride.

Good ol dogecoin.... made an absolute killing on that trash as a joke.

 

[MosinT53Hunter]

There ABSOLUTELY WAS ammo this time last year, if you looked around. You did have to look, and you had to be decisive- if you found it, you had to buy right then. No waiting to decide if you were maybe going over budget. Regarding budget- you can decide if you want to buy ammo monthly, or if you want to "bite the bullet" and get a large amount upfront, and then let it ride awhile. Without going into too much detail, I carefully considered all the pending uncertainty last year- covid, riots, upcoming elections, etc- and decided I would plan for ... awhile. Like, until things settle down again, maybe midterms etc. My savings went low during that stretch... but since I made my purchases (and haven't since), my savings are balancing out. If I'd have waited, I'd be paying a lot more now.
If things never went haywire, I'd still be in the same boat I am now- comfortably supplied, current income not going into ammo.

Not to continue this further, but in my neck of the woods, in the sporting good stores, hard ware stores, etc, once this covid crap was going around, the shelves were stripped bare of any ammunition. I don't order ammo on line, though I know many do. I have sufficient stock of my own and that is good enough for me. To each their own.

 

[lsudave]

Not to continue this further, but in my neck of the woods, in the sporting good stores, hard ware stores, etc, once this covid crap was going around, the shelves were stripped bare of any ammunition. I don't order ammo on line, though I know many do

Covid or not, I wasn't finding 7.65 Argentine in the stores for $13 a box, only online. And I've never come close to matching online prices for 9mm in any store.

Back on topic- right now, we're seeing supply catch up, and production is still increasing. The retailers stayed in business selling cases for $160 before. So there's a big margin between what it is now, and what it can probably drop down to, and still be profitable (in, say, 6 months). At some point, some online site will try to be the next big favorite, and they will drop lower than the others. Somebody else will match them to stay in contention... I used to watch sgammo, targetsportsusa and Brownells all jockey for the lead.
The best way to encourage that move, is to sit tight right now.

 

[BRatigan]

A little update. Two days ago my brother and I went looking for ammo. We went to do more research than buying. Academy had an ammo only line where buyers were let in two at a time and could purchase two boxes at a time. We got there at 9:11 and there were 5 boxes of ammo left. People started to show up at the store at 3:30AM. We left as we were not looking for what they had. My recon was for 22LR. I reload everything else. Our next stop was Bass Pro in Daytona. Low and behold they had 45ACP FMJ for 29.95 a box for Win red box and 32.95 for Win white box. My brother and I are used to 49.95 and 59.95 for most of the 45 we come across. I also noted that in the large pawn and gun shops they have massive amounts of ammo but at the top of the price point. It pays to look around. Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel. Not sure how long the tunnel is though.

 

[huntsman]

I am quite sure, as there was "NO" ammunition to be had. At least there is a little of this, and a little of that this year.

Last July I bought .40S&W $13.58 a box off grab-a-gun so yes ammo was still popping up and still cheap

 

[Batty67]

Judging by the volume of Memorial Day sales ads for online ammo suppliers, and my daily check of ammoseek, at least for the really popular calibers, supply is catching up with demand. And prices are certainly inching down.

 

[alsaqr]

The local Academy store is <2 miles from home. Store opens at 09:00. This morning i got behind a long line of people waiting for the doors to open. By the time i got to the sporting goods section nearly everyone was lined up for the ammo shelves. Walked by the shelves which were half full of mostly rifle ammunition; most in 20 round boxes. Turned to leave and quick counted 43 people standing in line for their two boxes of ammunition.

The panic in Lawton, OK may not have eased. Now i've got to hit Walmart at opening time.

 

[TTv2]

I’m not by any means saying you’re wrong, just offering another option.
We have treads here on occasion about haggling the price down, inevitably most people haggle, some want buy unless they haggle the price down. I’ve often thought this likely makes sellers price things high. You know instead of the price they actually want, that’d make to much sense.

Given the lack of used guns available around here due to low ownership rates (especially handguns), none of the LGS around here haggle on used guns, at least not for people they haven't known for 20 years and nobody who falls into that category is going to be haggling for a used Hi Point. No, that LGS knows the customer who wants to buy that gun is someone who isn't a regular, isn't in the know, etc. as I remember years back I was going to have them order me a new Hi Point in .45 and, had they been available, they would have been able to get me a new one for less than the used one in the case.

I will say that at my club when I talk to guys there about gun stores, none of them have anything good to say about the LGS I'm talking about. In fact, I'm probably the one who criticizes them the least, but that's probably just because I'm 5 mins away from them, lol.

 

[TTv2]

I have serious doubts that 209s and Unique or 20/28 will be available by next fall. I see a flat purchase in my future.

If we're lucky we might see large pistol primers available for a decent price early next year, but 209s and small pistol primers are going to be gone for at least another 18 months and probably longer.