With regard specifically to range, however: what is it precisely about escalating SHTF that tends to draw out the actual topographical distances of confrontation?
I don’t know. And I don’t believe anyone else does either. By definition SHTF is chaotic and unpredictable. No one knows where, how, how big or how long it will happen, and therefore no one knows the best way to prepare or what tools will be required.
But this is the internet, the place to sprout off even (or especially) when you don’t know.
Over the past >100 years SHTF in the USA have been rare, localized and short lived. A few historical examples I can remember now where rifles seemed to have the advantage over shotguns:
- The Poncho Villa raid into New Mexico (Arizona?) around 1906.
- The James Gang attempted bank robbery in Northfield MN in 1890 something.
- Several (not all) of the shooting incidents in the Hatfield McCoy feud, 1870 to 1920?
- Various range wars in the west, 1860 to 1900+/-.
These events are not what most people on the internet are expecting for their SHTF, are they?
I don’t believe any of the US SHTF events in my lifetime (various race riots in Watts, Miami, Baltimore; post storm or earthquake looting, etc) would have required someone to have a rifle over a shotgun.
Some places outside the US SHTF happens more often, is a lot worse, lasts a lot longer. Like wars, coups, government crack downs on Liberty, tribal/family conflict, and criminal gangs taking over city neighborhoods or whole parts of the country side.
Looking at the above, I think “What would have to happen--specifically and concretely--in the social space between "unrest" and "revolt" for the distance and accuracy of the rifle to become indispensable?” is…you have to defend against organized, centrally lead, persistent threats.
The types of looters and rioters we’ve gotten in the short term SHTF situations in the US are un-organized, leaderless mobs, out to grab what they can with minimal risk to themselves, and they have no plan beyond that. They are generally persuaded to cease (or at least to go find a softer target) by a couple of shotgun blasts. The SHTF is over before the looters/rioters can evolve into a more formable threat.
But armed gangs, revolutionaries, paramilitaries, groups of hired thugs, feudin’ families or tribes, etc, need more than simple persuasion. These groups have the ability to regroup after receiving fire, assess the situation, and figure out how to out flank their opponent. If all you have is a shotgun, it will be difficult to keep the threat far enough way to prevent them from observing you, and maneuvering into a position of advantage. Defense against these groups requires (among other things) the long range, effective fire a rifle provides.