I stated very clearly it was just my opinion. I'm basing it on case studies I've seen where the bullet was identified, then comparing those case studies to ballistics gel testing of the same bullet (or a very similar one). For example, I saw a case study involving 9mm HSTs. They penetrate about 15'' in gel, whereas they only penetrated about 8'' in the actual victim. In one, no bone was involved, so that's not an answer. And that's only one example.
BTW, I've also noticed that gel isn't a very good predictor of whether bullets will expand reliably. Going back to the HST, the ones recovered from humans don't look nearly as nice as the ones recovered from gel, and are not nearly as consistent. I'm picking on the HST because it's a very common bullet with quite a bit of precedence behind it, that has a nearly perfect track record in gel testing. I'm not saying it's a bad bullet, I'm just saying that gel isn't nearly as close to living tissue as we would like to believe. And it's certainly not an accurate representation of what wounds will look like in a human, and on that point you're not likely to change my mind.